NorthArlington101

This is an interesting thread.

12z EPS no better for Monday to my eyes

Looking at the 6z ens the 12z OP would've been the most extreme member so I'm curious if we don't see a meager improvement. Think something more dynamic can only help us. If not it's still fun to root for something wicked for someone.

Getting some light snow back into DC at 144 as it goes nuclear around SNE

By 132 or so it stalls and hammers NYC/BOS for good measure. Dunno if we can make that happen further south or not. Collective willpower

Yeah I was surprised to look at the 00z EURO and see it showing a bit of a storm for 95-west. Guess it wasn't brought up last night. This is a step back from that actually but still "interesting" I guess. Not smart enough to figure out if there is any way for us to steal some more cold air or if we just need this to bomb out/amp up/something like that.

You see this panel - what's the first thing that pops into your mind?

Just for context, temps as it starts around 6-7am. Would be a nice snow for the MD/PA line, probably just pretty to watch everywhere else. Need to trend a bit cooler

It's good - wetter and quicker. Might pull some people (me) in.

GFS looks better Friday for our northern and western folks.

You still like something around the 20th or are we done here until our mid-April headfake?

Trust me, I agree with the broad point. It is horrible that we need a perfect track, QPF bomb to get there. I'm just saying that this one isn't even close to a notable rainstorm IMO. Yes the storm can't be represented in a single panel (or even a 24hr panel) but this is the wettest 50th percentile panel I can get for the window for most of us. Typing this out I guess I'm just replying to be argumentative since this winter has finally tilted me but the average member isn't close to a memorable miss. Just another drizzly March day.

This post finally radicalized me. Canceled my WxBell subscription and am becoming a severe weenie.

tbf - part of the problem is that this coastal is simply nothing impressive. 850s are fine but surface temps aren't great - would certaintly be helpful if precip was actually heavy. Should it be snow with any real cold? Probably. But not like we're getting soaked by a majority of members. Just trust me that the other half look like this too.

I guess it doesn't include *all* of Wave 2, but that's most of it. Snow mean might tick up a tenth or two in our far N/NW spots, but that's the coastal.

Unfortunately it doesn't work, see psu post above. Just not cold enough. Not an impressive mean

Unfortunately more models look like the GFS than the EURO. I’m definitely not counting on storm #1

GFS is no EURO but it has a little bit of snow for favored spots Saturday night.

FWIW - if I understand percentiles correctly (which I may not) the EPS says a good chunk of people should at least see snow Saturday-Sunday, which is a horrifically low bar but we don't have much. This is the 10th percentile map, so a bottom 10% situation when all the ens are considered. If people want I'd share other maps but want to avoid too much clutter

individual members have it but largely too warm but for our favored areas - better shot for you prob - though still nice and interesting in the medium range

Last 5 runs of the EPS for storm #1 - current output would be the best storm of the season for most. Was trending downhill til this last run so we'll have to see if there is something real.

Don't think this GFS run will get it done - some very light snow at 99 in the favored spots but that h5 pass needs to be further south. Good difference between the GFS/Euro (the latter of which is barely enough) still at this point.

I don’t get snow clown maps but the 540 line and 850s look ok the whole time

Just a little wet