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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    Been attempting to learn some really, (really) simple GIS. Posting this here because the map isn't actually something I believe in -- it was a test -- but maybe later this evening I'd actually try something... or maybe there will be a storm with greater upside than 1" one day.
  2. NorthArlington101
    This is 100% true but it won't stop me from analyzing every 15m interval on the HRRR. Don't look now but the 20z is substantially jucier into VA. 20z 19z
  3. NorthArlington101
    The last decent HRRR run was 16z IMO. If you want to be on the weenie train, I'm rolling the infallible (lol) EURO/CMC/RGEM power combo. Unless something better comes around.
  4. NorthArlington101
    boom?
  5. NorthArlington101
    18z RGEM is gonna be a substantial bump up from its recent runs looking at the quick CMC maps. Waiting for better graphics but it looks like a 6hr storm at DCA with 3 good hours in there. Don't think its back to where it was a 24+ hours ago, but I'm interested
  6. NorthArlington101
    The Bad Base State -- maybe a stretch
  7. NorthArlington101
    I lied - one more graphic. It's my thread. Probs were at 0% at 06z over that 40-50% CMD jackpot.
  8. NorthArlington101
    just for fun -- there is decent room for one more tick NW. Unless that would also cause temps to rise, in which case I guess I'd pass 12z: 06z
  9. NorthArlington101
    Control and EPS/Parent look similar - "big" shift in the last 6hrs
  10. NorthArlington101
  11. NorthArlington101
    older? wiser?
  12. NorthArlington101
    12z ICON took a big jump north #dustingwatch
  13. NorthArlington101
    GFS has a more substantial system but it’s still really meh. And standards are low.
  14. NorthArlington101
    Don’t look at the NAMs or the FV3 though [emoji6]
  15. NorthArlington101
    Kinda looks like 09z - 15z was the only really off run. Regardless, good to see guidance like the HHRR (and sure, even the SREF [emoji51]) pivoting back a bit.
  16. NorthArlington101
    It’s a step in the right direction to that .5-1” “victory stripe” solution for our most populated spots. Fingers crossed.
  17. NorthArlington101
    3k is a little better. Seems to be because the coastal gets going a little sooner/stronger. Not sure that's how we'd win around DC/Balt but it that was a real trend at some point it could spell well for the southern parts of the subforum - couple models have had a "victory" stripe of 1" or so down there.
  18. NorthArlington101
    Anyone want to guess if the EURO was interested?
  19. NorthArlington101
    GFS wants to give some flakes Thursday after its light Tuesday/Wednesday dustings. The saddest, worst shadow of an multi-day overrunning event ever.
  20. NorthArlington101
    People shouldn't mistake my limited enthusiasm for any hopes this is ends up being more than a sloppy inch, and even that is generous. I'd just like to see snow and this is a top 3 window we've had all season... as others have said, sad stuff.
  21. NorthArlington101
    GFS is actually an improvement - precip bumped north and 850s look great down to the south. Just need to have the usual 50mi jump north in 48 hours. Surface temps not as great around metro but maybe heavier precip would help?
  22. NorthArlington101
    In theory, that is just the Tuesday "preshow," but who knows, some snow TV then could be the main event.
  23. NorthArlington101
    can I interest you in the SREF mean bumping up?
  24. NorthArlington101
    Since people might need a mediocre pick-me-up after the RGEM, the 06z EPS was the best its looked for Weds in the past four cycles. Yes, we are talking a difference of tenths. I haven't yet seen a tenth, so...
  25. NorthArlington101
    Looks more like other guidance.. I'd take a meet in the middle T-1" at this point. Never thought we were getting 3".
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