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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. I think this is basically Tomer promising a DC/VA snowstorm? https://x.com/burgwx/status/1743122848648958012?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktg
  2. They good at clearing the roads in Winchester? If consensus shifts toward 6”+, I might head out that way
  3. Toggling it back and forth — that is a pretty significant bulge downward. Thanks for pointing that out
  4. Agreed - it’s hovering above freezing. I think once the 850s are shot, it’s plain rain. 3k does the @psuhoffman thing though around 5/6pm and almost pulls the RA/SN into the Belway again. 3k is the best run I’ve seen in the last day-ish that doesn’t involve fleeing westward to see flakes
  5. at the 850 level. This kind of stuff basically kills the thump in the cities. does it ever go the opposite way?
  6. 18z RGEM ticked better for the cities... better for everyone, really. Still goes nutso for our favored spots.
  7. I think this matters for all of us - best chance the cities have to get on the board is a thump for as long as we can hold onto a favorable thermal profile. Hot and heavy.
  8. the WxBell kuchera, fwiw. Little worse than 12z - just less of a thump.
  9. just need a couple degrees at 850 to make the 3k NAM run more fun for everyone... it must at least theoretically be possible.
  10. temps marginal and precip isn't super light... color me a bit skeptical as someone who lived in cville for 4 years and saw sig ice once despite it being modeled probably 3-4x a year. Now on the Blue Ridge itself... yeah. This seems like the kind of storm that closes the Parkway for 3 weeks... especially when you factor in a follow up next tues
  11. hmmm... sure it'll be refined but I'd consider a light chase if 5"+ ends up being the forecast. just in case... you know... it never snows again.
  12. yeah 3k is cautiously optimistic for a few hours of snow. And frankly, it's on the razor's edge for the hours afterwards. rates would do a lot -- plus a rare positive trend. We've still got ~2 days to cut temps by 1-3 degrees.
  13. Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Habor?
  14. The one thing I noticed were warmer 850s… not by much but every tick in the wrong direction makes it harder to go back in the right direction.
  15. I think most people are very frightened by a touch warmer at this juncture to be honest
  16. I've looked at that exact 389k listing on Zillow before. Tempting...
  17. RGEM holds for I-81 and other favored spots but the RA/SN line jumped NW
  18. me to the I-81 crew after seeing the 18z NAM
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