MillvilleWx

Have you tried the flamethrower method? Great sear, interesting flavor, do not recommend while having an argument with your wife and she's doing round 2 of the flame-throwing

The ridge alignment is literally perfection with that setup too. You want those + height anomalies over ID/W MT for a reflection of SLP track along and off the eastern seaboard. The premise of 100-200 miles in exact placement of succinct ridge/trough patterns is a marvel to think about on a hemispheric scale. The big ones need that star alignment, and the fact it happens as often as it does is pretty outstanding. I love weather

It blows my mind that models are pinning a 85kt 85H wind max over NE MD on Thursday evening. Someone is going to walk with 2.5-3" of rain easily with this system. Hopefully no Christmas flooding at play, although I think parts of Carroll on west are under that gun.

The DC jackpot. As common as Chupacabra's and Big Foot

That secondary max over by Easton always blows my mind. There was literally a singular band that wrecked that area for hours after the sleet cleared out.

This is the Mid Atlantic. Carroll will shovel 2ft of snow and La Plata will shovel 2ft of disappointment

That post-Christmas look is what you want with the shortwave parade being depicted. Storms forced underneath with high frequency. It would be tough to get anything north of 40N with a storm track. There might be a sneaky event in there with so many pulses running around. 100% guarantee that not all shortwaves for the extended are even modeled either. I like the chances of some kind of winter precip with that 5H setup.

I remember that! Was a crazy good stretch of weather and what ended up being a damn good winter for the region. .

It's tougher considering NWP has improved vastly over the last several years. Yeah, certain models can bust on a forecast, but even this last one there was hints of trending negative for some and positive for others. The odds are lower, but they can happen. WWA's can turn into WSW's if mesoscale trends turn more favorable. A lot of it has to do with strength and positioning of mid-level features and sometimes micro-climate influences like terrain. You're in a solid area for winter precip in the state. Off to the your NW in the county is the best spot with Damascus and Clarksburg along Pars Ridge. You'll get to know the favored climos in the area pretty quickly.

There have been positive busts in the past. DC area won't ever see much in the way of positive busts since they are DC (sort of a joke lol) but it can happen outside the urban corridor. We've had some doozy ones in the past 12/8/2013 is crazy one. Called for 1-3" in the Baltimore area and ended up with 6-8" with a football game going on during. Was at that game. One of the best Ravens games of all time, but that's another story all by itself.

COD Meteorology is good. Highly recommend RadarScope if you don't have it. It's my fav radar for mobile. For PC, the best free one for me is COD. The best pay are GR Analyst and WeatherTap

Thanks for the feedback guys. It was definitely a tough forecast to nail down. There wasn’t a classic phase of the streams that can make things a little easier to track in traditional Miller A events. This was a hybrid with a further north close off at 7H and that really hurt the chances for a bigger storm, along with the boundary layer warmth. The HREF is amazing and it’s now got 3 storms I’ve used it for nailed down inside 24 hrs. I think that’s something to monitor for down the road. I’ll be a little more cautious with these kinds of setups for now on. You live and learn. It was fun to track. Wish I could’ve been up during normal people hrs, but what can you do lol .

Definitely learned some things with this storm. I tried to be even keeled, but once again, I got bit some on the warm air intrusion in the boundary layer. I wrote a tweet thread about it. My estimates were still okay, for the most part. My high ends needed to be trimmed some out west. I’m glad almost everyone in here got some snow though. I certainly miss it and being back home for these events. .

The proverbial Atlantic fire hose. A tradition unlike any other

Binghamton on the last hourly measurement has surpassed the amount of precipitation MAF has had since July 1st in under 6 hrs, with snow.......lol

Thanks Rich! I've been busy with shift work. Lot of evening shifts and now mids (Last one tonight though so pretty stoked!). I'll be stopping in more this winter season. Wife and I taking it conservative with Covid since she's really high risk due to a plethora of heart issues (Is literally a walking miracle). Once we get vaccinated, we're gonna do some serious travel second half of next year. Hopefully this winter can deliver some more memorable events. I'll be checking in more since this is my fav time of year Hope all is well with you and the family, as well as everyone on the boards. Now, let's get this snow!

LOL

Wow. That yard stick was made for those moments. Congrats man. Long overdue for you up in those parts

3-4"/hr being reported in that band over northern PA to Binghamton. 2-3' is a lock at this point for that area.

Evening y'all! Hope everyone enjoyed the snow. I missed all the action today with my last mid tonight and struggling to sleep for part of the day. I hope the snow can stick around and provide everyone with a white Christmas. I noticed the mix got as far north as the Nam Nest entailed, which sucks, cuz that cut on the totals. But, I'm sure many in here will take the snow that fell after last years debacle. Look forward to gazing through through the thread for pics and living vicariously. Have a great night y'all!

Evening y’all. After fighting for good sleep for 2 hrs earlier today, I managed to finally pass out until my alarm went off at 930. Time to get ready for one final mid shift. In the meantime, I hope everyone in here got to cash in on some snow today. I haven’t looked at anything, so I have a lot of catching up to do. I’ll be checking in off and on tonight when I got time. Enjoy the winter weather [emoji3587] .

Guys. The radar looks exactly like what was planned if anyone had any doubts. There was supposed to be limited QG Vector convergence until between 12-15z, then things will begin blossoming quickly heading north. By 18z, there should be a formidable slug and by 21z, it’ll be a wall of precip. Heading to bed. One more mid left. Good luck to all. I hope to wake up to obs of SN+, ripping fatties, and puking snow. Have fun! .

Understand wholeheartedly