WxWatcher007

One more from today.

It’s an ugly look right now with shear and dry air, but I’d look for the following over the next 3-5 days: Step 1/Next 48 hours: Does the “wave” axis, which is currently oriented from west-east, begin to tilt more N-S to take on the look of a traditional wave? Step 2/Friday & Saturday: Does this “wave” break from the monsoon trough and into the eastern Caribbean? I’d want to see a broad area of vorticity, something that resembles a nascent disturbance. Disorganized, but you know it has a chance. Step 3/Sunday & Monday: Does the disturbance begin to consolidate and fire more persistent convection, setting it on the path of TC genesis. On the guidance, ensembles especially, I’d want to see some more robust consensus on development in the central Caribbean. I think we’re starting to see that today, but that can fall apart quickly if these three steps aren’t completed IMO.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: East of The Windward Islands: A large area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Even though this system remains disorganized, environmental conditions could become more conducive for development in a few days while it is forecast to move across the Windward Islands and into the southeastern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in a couple of days. Environmental conditions could support some slow development of this system late this week or over the weekend while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin

I didn’t see anything. The PWS were in the 2-4 range when I looked.

This was the South Windsor cell a little earlier. It had nice inflow in real time.

Sorry man. That one looked like it’d be a close shave.

If Sey-Mour ain’t getting in on this cell he may need a welfare check.

They got smoked.

Best storm of the year. Approaching .50”

Nah, I was on it so the odds were zero. In all seriousness though it had some pretty strong inflow. Hope to share a TL when I’m done.

Awesome. I was wondering who called that in.

Big rainer out near Avon

It is but that’s kinda normal. The 0-120 hour structural forecast (vorticity and organization) is what matters to me.

Not accurate. The main thing is that the ensembles are trying to show a pathway for TC genesis that could get into the Caribbean. I posted the Papin tweet in the thread but this is a great illustration of what we’re looking at. This isn’t ten days out there either, this is a short to medium range forecast. For genesis—don’t really care about the downstream impact—that’s too early.

I believe every landfalling 5 was a tropical storm within 72 hours of landfall.

There's definitely some vorticity down there and it's getting stronger in recent hours at least based on CIMSS analysis. 850mb 925mb It also has a nice moisture envelope (note that it also looks better in the E Atlantic where the next wave should be) If it can break off and get into the Caribbean without too much shear, it should be a good environment. The ensemble guidance has had a light signal. We'll see if that becomes more modest today.

The Antilles critter is moving up my list, chiefly because it’s already near 60W and doesn’t have to deal with the eastern Atlantic graveyard.

Gets to 60W and takes off

GFS more aggressive with that monsoon trough thing near the Antilles. Maybe we start to see more of a focus on that. Edit: it has trended more consolidated the last ~8 runs.

Good thing I got rain yesterday because I look good for a couple misses today lol

Not surprising. We’re looking at a much longer time horizon with this one, if it even develops at all. I wonder if/when they will put lemons on the trailing wave and potential disturbance near the Antilles. Those have some ensemble support.

This is one that should produce, but…