WxWatcher007

Looks like the GFS moved toward the Euro at 00z

You can get stuff to pop out of that--we just saw that with the wave that's now in the eastern Caribbean. The Euro and GFS differ in their latest runs. The Euro tries to get the eastern wave (the right near the CVs) to interact with part of the trough and that becomes a TC. The GFS, probably due in part to another burst of dry air, keeps everything strung out. I think the main takeaway is that there's a real chance for development in the tropical Atlantic. How high I don't really know. I think models are going to struggle, especially in this environment, to pick up where and how in that region. Posting the ops because these are inside 90 hour forecasts.

It's the monsoon trough inside the ITCZ. This can have an impact on eventual TC genesis, but the feature itself doesn't become tropical. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Mauritania near 20N17W southwestward to across the Cabo Verde Islands to 14N30W to 10N48W. The ITCZ extends from 10N48W to 10N55W. In addition to the deep convection noted with the easternmost tropical wave, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 13N between 30W and 37W. The eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough extends east from Costa Rica near 10N83W to 1010 mb low pressure near 11N76W to the coast of Colombia near 11N75W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted south of 13N in the SW Caribbean Sea. https://severeweather.wmo.int/TCFW/RAIV_Workshop2017/05b_MonsoonTrough_HughCobb.pdf

Hyperactive ain’t happening. We can barely get clouds. Let’s get the show on the road

What about a trifecta? Just kidding. There will be no hurricanes this year.

East scraper FTL. Those up the valley tracks are hard to come by. Though that might be too far west for you lol.

Harvey five years ago. This one a little further back.

Did a deeper dive into the basin this morning in the MA thread. It sounds like a broken record, but we're making progress, I think. Feel free to call me a clown if we get to September 1, have nothing on the table, and another SAL outbreak that blots out the sun in the tropical Atlantic. Totally possible Reposting so it'll probably look weird on mobile. Sorry about that. Let's take an objective look around the Atlantic basin on this Thursday morning. In my analysis, I will broadly look at four areas: The Gulf, the western Atlantic, Caribbean, and Tropical Atlantic. The Gulf Not much is happening here, and not much is expected. I did previously highlight this area for possible BOC development this weekend, and while the guidance has continued to have a weak ensemble signal for development in association with a weak wave that is currently draped across the Yucatan, at least right now, nothing is imminent. Western Atlantic The feature that stands out here is an upper trough that has been persistent the last few days in the Atlantic. There's not much of a chance of development, despite a very weak ensemble signal for a quick spin up. Why? Despite deep convection firing each morning, it is disorganized. Moreover, it hasn't made much of an attempt to organize during the convectively active periods. For an upper trough to work toward the surface you need time and a non-hostile environment. It has had time, but the lethal combination of dry air and shear will likely keep this feature from developing. The two images above lead to the more "active" portions of the basin, where we have vigorous waves that may struggle to find windows for development, but have a shot to break our historic named storm drought nonetheless. Caribbean The first takeaway, and has been the story of the season thus far, is that dry air is ever-present out in the Atlantic. To be clear, the basin is FAR better off now than it was a few weeks ago, but dry air has continued to kill vigorous waves. As you can see below, it has worked its way into the eastern Caribbean while the central and western portions of the sea have much more moisture. This is important because our first lemon, one I have been tracking closely since a cold push from South America tilted part of the monsoon trough into an upright wave, has been trying to fight off dry air and may have a shot to develop in the Caribbean in a few days if it is able to avoid suffocation by the dry air. Shear is still around, but isn't as bad. As you saw in the shear image above, the western and central Caribbean are open for business, if a legitimate disturbance can get there. Guidance is clear on a favorable environment persisting. Enter our wave, which looks a little more robust this morning. It should look robust given the time of day. Let's see if it is able to keep dry air out today. That will be hard. One final note on this wave. Despite the operational GFS and Euro not developing this, there are meaningful signals for some development once this gets to the central and western Caribbean. The NHC highlights it in their outlook, and if you look at the broader environment, it does look conducive for development if dry air doesn't kill it first. I said about a week ago that we needed to look past 60W for a development chance, and that still looks to be the case. I still believe this is one to watch, as it has so far been successful in standing upright and breaking away from the monsoon trough as a well-defined wave, as the NHC described it at 8am this morning. Tropical Atlantic Finally, we turn the tropical Atlantic portion of the MDR, where waves have gone to die all season due to that lethal combination of dry, stable air and shear from TUTTs created by repeated wave breaking. Both look to be in the way right now out there, but we are getting stronger waves in this part of the Atlantic as we approach the climatological peak and are receiving an assist from a favorable CCKW and MJO. While it isn't quite the case since we still have mid to late September for CVs, it feels like now or never for some of these waves to fight back against a hostile Atlantic. Enter our latest wave. The image above has lat/lon and the SST distribution as an overlay to assist the reader. The first thing I notice is a continued robust monsoon trough between 5 and 10 deg N. That could serve as a focal point for development in the MDR, though the trough itself doesn't become a TC. The second thing I notice is our wave to the north, and you can clearly see it spin nicely off the coast of Africa. It has good convection early, and is running into a primed ribbon of warm SSTs. However, the third thing I see is also clear. More dry and likely stable air. That said, our dead Invest did prove to be a sacrificial wave, moistening the environment to provide this new wave with a greater chance of developing a moisture envelope that not only helps future waves, but can protect itself down the road as it tries to develop, and it should try. It's actually pretty bad that we have to say the dry air isn't as dry so there's a chance, but that's the basin we have this year. Development should be slow for this one, and keep in mind it's just coming off Africa so these things can take time to really spin up, but overall the signal on the GEFS and EPS are the strongest yet for activity in the tropical Atlantic. Overall What gives me confidence that early September will be active, even if we do not receive a named storm in August (and it will be close), is that the wave train that is clearly underway has helped to moisten the tropical Atlantic. With stronger and more frequent waves heading into September, I do think the odds will increase for an above (climatological) average period. That's a bold (and potentially idiotic) statement, because dry/stable air may continue to be an issue if wave breaking persists. Let's take a look at the latest ensembles. Things have been extraordinarily quiet. The tropical Atlantic has been a graveyard that has precluded development even west of 60W, but things are changing, albeit slowly. It's hard for me to get excited about anything today with so much dry and stable air still prevalent in the basin, but objectively, the pattern has been evolving toward a more favorable background state. This is not a "good conditions are 10 days away, still" post. I do think that the two NHC lemons have a meaningful shot of development in the 5-7 day range, and if we're able to open up the tropical Atlantic for development beyond that, it will ripple throughout the basin as it should allow waves to get further across toward more favorable conditions in the Gulf and western Atlantic in mid-September. Watch for wave breaking and TUTTs. If we see that continue, there will be a lid on development. If those begin to fade in early September, we're off and running.

Let's take an objective look around the Atlantic basin on this Thursday morning. In my analysis, I will broadly look at four areas: The Gulf, the western Atlantic, Caribbean, and Tropical Atlantic. The Gulf Not much is happening here, and not much is expected. I did previously highlight this area for possible BOC development this weekend, and while the guidance has continued to have a weak ensemble signal for development in association with a weak wave that is currently draped across the Yucatan, at least right now, nothing is imminent. Western Atlantic The feature that stands out here is an upper trough that has been persistent the last few days in the Atlantic. There's not much of a chance of development, despite a very weak ensemble signal for a quick spin up. Why? Despite deep convection firing each morning, it is disorganized. Moreover, it hasn't made much of an attempt to organize during the convectively active periods. For an upper trough to work toward the surface you need time and a non-hostile environment. It has had time, but the lethal combination of dry air and shear will likely keep this feature from developing. The two images above lead to the more "active" portions of the basin, where we have vigorous waves that may struggle to find windows for development, but have a shot to break our historic named storm drought nonetheless. Caribbean The first takeaway, and has been the story of the season thus far, is that dry air is ever-present out in the Atlantic. To be clear, the basin is FAR better off now than it was a few weeks ago, but dry air has continued to kill vigorous waves. As you can see below, it has worked its way into the eastern Caribbean while the central and western portions of the sea have much more moisture. This is important because our first lemon, one I have been tracking closely since a cold push from South America tilted part of the monsoon trough into an upright wave, has been trying to fight off dry air and may have a shot to develop in the Caribbean in a few days if it is able to avoid suffocation by the dry air. Shear is still around, but isn't as bad. As you saw in the shear image above, the western and central Caribbean are open for business, if a legitimate disturbance can get there. Guidance is clear on a favorable environment persisting. Enter our wave, which looks a little more robust this morning. It should look robust given the time of day. Let's see if it is able to keep dry air out today. That will be hard. One final note on this wave. Despite the operational GFS and Euro not developing this, there are meaningful signals for some development once this gets to the central and western Caribbean. The NHC highlights it in their outlook, and if you look at the broader environment, it does look conducive for development if dry air doesn't kill it first. I said about a week ago that we needed to look past 60W for a development chance, and that still looks to be the case. I still believe this is one to watch, as it has so far been successful in standing upright and breaking away from the monsoon trough as a well-defined wave, as the NHC described it at 8am this morning. Tropical Atlantic Finally, we turn the tropical Atlantic portion of the MDR, where waves have gone to die all season due to that lethal combination of dry, stable air and shear from TUTTs created by repeated wave breaking. Both look to be in the way right now out there, but we are getting stronger waves in this part of the Atlantic as we approach the climatological peak and are receiving an assist from a favorable CCKW and MJO. While it isn't quite the case since we still have mid to late September for CVs, it feels like now or never for some of these waves to fight back against a hostile Atlantic. Enter our latest wave. The image above has lat/lon and the SST distribution as an overlay to assist the reader. The first thing I notice is a continued robust monsoon trough between 5 and 10 deg N. That could serve as a focal point for development in the MDR, though the trough itself doesn't become a TC. The second thing I notice is our wave to the north, and you can clearly see it spin nicely off the coast of Africa. It has good convection early, and is running into a primed ribbon of warm SSTs. However, the third thing I see is also clear. More dry and likely stable air. That said, our dead Invest did prove to be a sacrificial wave, moistening the environment to provide this new wave with a greater chance of developing a moisture envelope that not only helps future waves, but can protect itself down the road as it tries to develop, and it should try. It's actually pretty bad that we have to say the dry air isn't as dry so there's a chance, but that's the basin we have this year. Development should be slow for this one, and keep in mind it's just coming off Africa so these things can take time to really spin up, but overall the signal on the GEFS and EPS are the strongest yet for activity in the tropical Atlantic. Overall What gives me confidence that early September will be active, even if we do not receive a named storm in August (and it will be close), is that the wave train that is clearly underway has helped to moisten the tropical Atlantic. With stronger and more frequent waves heading into September, I do think the odds will increase for an above (climatological) average period. That's a bold (and potentially idiotic) statement, because dry/stable air may continue to be an issue if wave breaking persists. Let's take a look at the latest ensembles. Things have been extraordinarily quiet. The tropical Atlantic has been a graveyard that has precluded development even west of 60W, but things are changing, albeit slowly. It's hard for me to get excited about anything today with so much dry and stable air still prevalent in the basin, but objectively, the pattern has been evolving toward a more favorable background state. This is not a "good conditions are 10 days away, still" post. I do think that the two NHC lemons have a meaningful shot of development in the 5-7 day range, and if we're able to open up the tropical Atlantic for development beyond that, it will ripple throughout the basin as it should allow waves to get further across toward more favorable conditions in the Gulf and western Atlantic in mid-September. Watch for wave breaking and TUTTs. If we see that continue, there will be a lid on development. If those begin to fade in early September, we're off and running.

Step 1 looks good and is near completion. The push from South America has pushed the wave nearly upright, with solid vorticity. Watching step 2 now. This should happen as well, but let’s watch.

I skipped a week of law school when the models started locking into Feb ‘13. I just went back to find the image. Feb 5th Euro

Wake me up when they’re convectively active 1,000 miles west of the CVs. Stability has been a killer this season. The tropical Atlantic has been a graveyard for great waves.

Euro pretty aggressive too today, though I’ve sung this song before.

When it’s gettin good during an event it’s impossible to sleep. The adrenaline just kicks into overdrive.

I think my first was Floyd in 99. Was a kid for that. Most memorable was GB ‘13. Basically outside at 2am taking it all in. Honorable mention is Laura in ‘20. Insanity in the RFQ.

That’s the monsoon trough, so it’s not really going anywhere. Look at the SAL that sneaks in between that and the next wave. Absolutely LOLtastic

Didn’t know about this one

I mean it speaks for itself :

Well, step one seems to be underway. Per analysis and visible imagery, that push from South America is helping to tilt the wave upright. Problem is the Atlantic is trying to kill it with shear and dry air, which is stunting any type of organization and modest convection. That was expected. Everything is a fight in the basin this year. Despite this, there’s still a signal on the ensembles for development in the Caribbean. All time bust if this season is below normal. It is a legitimate possibility, but still unlikely imo.

One more from today.

It’s an ugly look right now with shear and dry air, but I’d look for the following over the next 3-5 days: Step 1/Next 48 hours: Does the “wave” axis, which is currently oriented from west-east, begin to tilt more N-S to take on the look of a traditional wave? Step 2/Friday & Saturday: Does this “wave” break from the monsoon trough and into the eastern Caribbean? I’d want to see a broad area of vorticity, something that resembles a nascent disturbance. Disorganized, but you know it has a chance. Step 3/Sunday & Monday: Does the disturbance begin to consolidate and fire more persistent convection, setting it on the path of TC genesis. On the guidance, ensembles especially, I’d want to see some more robust consensus on development in the central Caribbean. I think we’re starting to see that today, but that can fall apart quickly if these three steps aren’t completed IMO.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: East of The Windward Islands: A large area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Even though this system remains disorganized, environmental conditions could become more conducive for development in a few days while it is forecast to move across the Windward Islands and into the southeastern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in a couple of days. Environmental conditions could support some slow development of this system late this week or over the weekend while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin