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Wxoutlooksblog

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  1. Wxoutlooksblog
    Unfortunately this ends up as a phase-up and NOT where the Euro had it last night but right off the central NJ coast--coast hugger. A cold rain, probably 34 and rain. Last night's run colder and snowier with no phase and the southern system ending up further s and e. WX/PT
  2. Wxoutlooksblog
    In order to get snow you have to have some cold air. And tonight's European model run has some at the end. Maybe this will be the start of something new. WX/PT
  3. Wxoutlooksblog
    50s? I'm not so sure. The maps are volatile noting the Euro just tried to pop a coastal at 120 hours. Not that it has very large implications but heavier rain and more easterly winds would tend to hold down temps. Let's see what happens there's still some uncertainty. WX/PT
  4. Wxoutlooksblog
    We are going through the usual cycles of model swings the only problem being for snowlovers along I-95 the big cities and coastal locations that the swings are too far west. The most easterly swing (about 4 days ago) was by two out of the three models a coast hugger and the most westerly swing took the primary to just about Green Bay Wisconsin (GGEM several runs ago). So it does not really appear that there's much of a chance at this point for an all-out snowstorm here but we can keep just a slight bit of hope for some snow or sleet on the front or back end particularly away from the coast. Central and northern New England along with parts of Pennsylvania and central/western NY State have a better shot at snow. But tonight the models have come east again. I do not know how far but it is my guess that they're not going to shift east beyond the easternmost track of several days back and that they may eventually shift to the left a bit once again. For most of us in my opinion this is mostly a rain event. WX/PT
  5. Wxoutlooksblog
    Some of the set-ups the GFS is coming up with are incredibly dynamic and a little too perfect to believe at this juncture from such an inconsistent model. The lack of a solid 50/50 low for the 22nd-23rd is noted. But I love the antecedent and incoming high pressure locations nearly perfect. The zipper low on the 22nd kind of functions as the 50/50 but it's highly uncertain whether or not that would work out. The second storm is a classic Miller A but starts so far south. Usually those storms do not make it all the way up the coast. So there are lots of variables to keep an eye on with a sense that sooner or later something big could happen. WX/PT
  6. Wxoutlooksblog
    The Euro is definitely pumping up potential for this Thursday. It's just going to be difficult to sustain enough cold air here without cold HP locked in to our north and a good 50/50 low. Then again the actual storm track it is depicting would seem to be a rain to snow track with possibly accumulating snows region-wide. Still, I'd need to see more runs showing this to have much confidence in it. WX/PT
  7. Wxoutlooksblog
    Emerging is a blocky pattern which can yield big and long duration events depending on how the overall weather pattern sets up but with the mostly strongly -PNA odds favor storms tracking initially well to the north and west of the forecast area then they run into the block and tend to re-develop south and east on the east coast near the east coast, etc. But it is the precise location of where these storms re-develop which will determine precip type. Factors stacked against us include higher than normal heights over the southeast tending to force re-development further north and the -PNA. It could take most of the winter season before we get a system in this pattern to re-develop in the sweet spot but not always. In the meantime a very rainy dreary and mild week ahead. WX/PT
  8. Wxoutlooksblog
    The models are still going back and forth with the storm track for late next week and pending 50/50 low. CMC while showing rain for most areas aside from northern NY State and Ontario-Quebec has shifted its storm track well to the south and east from last night. But the ECMWF has become a bit more La Nina-ish with a less amplified ridge out west. I think in the end initially southern storms might tend to cut while Alberta Clippers may or may not but behind each one a reinforcing shot of icy cold air. We just have to wait and see how this pattern develops. Snow showers and flurries later this afternoon and evening could set the mood. WX/PT
  9. Wxoutlooksblog
    00Z GFS has the 50/50 back maybe it will keep the clipper to our south. WX/PT
  10. Wxoutlooksblog
    This does not look very La Nina-ish. Brrrr. We'll see. WX/PT
  11. Wxoutlooksblog
    The analog idea does not mean that in the season being forecast/discussed the analog year's snowfall is identical. It's more that the overall pattern would be similar. And you know how many situations pop up in any season when a difference of 30-100 miles can be the the difference between no snow and a foot of snow. But yes, 01-02 and 75-76 were not good. WX/PT
  12. Wxoutlooksblog
    Once the pattern does flip to a colder one we probably will see many many clippers this season. I do think we'll be switching winter on and off abruptly and regularly with some very cold weeks but mostly near to above normal temperatures at other times. Odds are the cold episodes will be mainly dry but I cannot rule out a couple of cold fronts stalling out nearby and some snow as waves of low pressure move along them to our south. This sort of thing probably more the exception than the rule. I like analogs 1975-76, 2001-02, maybe 1964-65 or 1965-66. less-so 1988-89. WX/PT
  13. Wxoutlooksblog
    Some locations in the NYC Metro Region are getting some really soaking rains from the remnants/leftovers of Ian. But if my take is correct, we are still in a drier than normal overall weather pattern while above normal temperature pattern has shifted into a below normal temperature pattern. I don't think this current event necessarily means that the drought is over. Even if a few spots ended up with 3.00" of rain from this, if the next 8 weeks are very dry, we're very close to being back in the drought. We are lucky that we ended up in the right spot with Ian and the same luck is unlikely to happen again though not impossible. Most of the computer guidance having systems accelerating w-nw to e-se across the northern tier of the country with cold fronts one after another dropping down from Canada does not give me confidence in more sizable rain events after this one. We'll see if the tropics have more to say. WX/PT
  14. Wxoutlooksblog
    I think it's probably real to some extent. To what extent exactly? I'm not sure yet. WX/PT
  15. Wxoutlooksblog
    Nam has been miserable lately and you're talking about rainfall it generates 48-84 hours away. It completely missed on the thunderstorm activity 3 nights ago, and has been enthusiastic in terms of rainfall at times when we've gotten almost none. Let's wait with Nam and see what it looks like 12 hours in advance. It may look very different. I would go with a compromise between the ECMWF, GGEM, and GFS meaning that we'll still be on the northern flank of the precip but it could be ocasionally heavy in a few spots particularly as the GGEM has, way out east. I like the earlier/faster timing. WX/PT
  16. Wxoutlooksblog
    It appears to me at this time that the potential for any more 90 degree temperatures at Central Park has rapidly diminished this afternoon. I'd say looking at the latest model data that the only outside chance, and really unlikely IMO would be for Sunday the 18th. Newark might have a shot Sunday or Monday. But I do not see how the Park can get there Monday and it appears the pre-frontal trough and cold front are going to be charging south and east quickly Wednesday night and Thursday cutting off the flow of warm air into the region by mid-day Thursday and not allowing either Newark or the Park to get much above 82 or 83. That's my take at the moment given the latest guidance. And I think we are moving into a Autumn pattern pretty quickly that could also put an end to our long stretch of well above normal temperatures. What I'm saying is all subject to change as the models have been very poor and inconsistent for the last eight weeks, but that's how I see it now. WX/PT
  17. Wxoutlooksblog
    Yes GFS just now slowed up the front but the Euro has been speeding it up. GGEM about 12 hours faster. There's definitely timing uncertainty. WX/PT
  18. Wxoutlooksblog
    If you're talking about Newark, you have a shot at 90 on all 3 days. Central Park may not get there any of them but has probably the best shot depending on the timing of the cold front on Thursday. WX/PT
  19. Wxoutlooksblog
    It's amazing the tug of war the models get into as they're trying to sort out all the data only 7 days prior to a ridge building into the east on top of some kind of tropical system and two models completely different tracks differing by almost a thousand miles as to where this tropical system will go. GFS into the Atlantic threatening the eastern seaboard or GGEM into the Gulf of Mexico threatening the Gulf Coast. The GFS solution at this point brings more heat into the northeast, perhaps two days of around 90 degree temperatures while on the GGEM we are just on the edge of the ridge the same two days but could hit 90 on at least one of them. The models will continue to go back and forth and probably even swap solutions at some point before they settle on what's going to happen. The low confidence in choosing sides right now is that the only ensemble which supports the above scenarios slightly is the GEPS. We're still waiting for the EPS and GEFS to lend credibility to what the operational models are doing. WX/PT
  20. Wxoutlooksblog
    Things to look for this afternoon. Over the summer, the EPS was the leading model in forecasting the heat. It beat the operational Euro by a lot. If we're going to get that ridge to build in, the chances are we'll have to see it forecast on the EPS and the European model. The Euro may be a run cycle or two later in showing it but as of now keep in mind, the EPS does not really show a good WAR building in. That will probably have to change and it's something to look for. The GEPS does show the ridge building in but this season, the GEPS has had a tendency to lock in solutions which adjusted abruptly at closer range. So IMO the EPS is most important to watch for at this time. WX/PT
  21. Wxoutlooksblog
    GEFS no WAR no Cane. And that's how this works. If you do not have a classic WAR a hurricane in the southwest Atlantic is unlikely to become a major factor. WX/PT
  22. Wxoutlooksblog
    Actually, the GGEM depicts a far weaker tropical disturbance which is more suppressed and never gains latitude. We just sit uneventfully with a split ridge, a day or two of borderline warmth/heat. WX/PT
  23. Wxoutlooksblog
  24. Wxoutlooksblog
    Quite a fun run after the autumn-like treats of 00Z. The way to get a hurricane up the coast, put an upper low over the upper mid west, build WAR on top of the hurricane blocking it so it can't' escape, and have enough ridging under it to allow it to gain latitude. And here you go. Now prior to the madness, GFS does build WAR back in from the south and east giving us a day or two of 90+ heat. GGEM is a little diffferent but not much. We wait for King Euro to speak. WX/PT
  25. Wxoutlooksblog
    I doubt it at this point. I think the latest maps are more showing low-mid 80s with perhaps one day of mid 80s to near 90 (looks like the 21st). Then the pattern seems to revert to the June pattern of keeping the warmth and the heat to our west and we actually do get into more of a autumn-like pattern with a series of cold fronts. I'm not saying we will have seen the last days of the warmth/heat for the season, but we're close to it and maybe the se ridge or a piece of the western ridge pops in for a day sometime in October. WX/PT
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