Wxoutlooksblog

More hot weather maybe late this month into next month? GEFS supports it. GEPS and EPS do not at the moment but did a day ago. They are flipping back and forth. We'll see. WX/PT

As of now I think we'll be chilly and wet on Wed but that heavy rainfall amounts most likely will be confined to eastern LI and New England. This could change. WX/PT

I do not think Central Park will get to 90 today, tomorrow, and maybe not even on Thursday. Thursday a 50% chance. The winds are now forecast to be more southerly right off of the relatively cool (but not so cool--mid/upper 70s) Atlantic Ocean. The models are generally in agreement on this. If the Park is to hit 90 they probably have to do so by 1 or 2PM the latest. Afternoon onshore winds, storms forming along seabreeze fronts perhaps. But now with the Euro more and more washing out the front on Friday night, I don't even think we're going to get much precipitation then. I think it's mostly scattered to isolated in nature and while there could be locally heavy amounts it would be very confined to locations where storms do occur. Friday through Monday the Park should hit 90 but not without a struggle. Then cooler air arrives next week Tues or Wed. WX/PT

Tonight of everything I've seen the CMC makes the most sense. The Friday front never really gets here. The storms out ahead of it do but by the time the front would move through it's pretty much washing out. Saturday and Sunday are extremely hot then maybe a cold front Sunday night and back into the heat next Wednesday for one day. I would not be surprised if Central Park didn't quite make it to 90 today or Wednesday. I think for the Park the 90 degree readings start on Thursday, we'll see. WX/PT

If the frontal boundary were to remain to our north and west and stall out before ever reaching us it would still be possible for us to have that. It just does not seem likely at this point in time. Then again, the modeling isn't very good though the best of them, the Euro, has been the hottest. WX/PT

In order for the hottest temperatures to occur we really need a downsloping westerly or even west northwesterly wind. In order to get that, we need a strong westward extension of the Bermuda HP and not too far south. While we could see that if the models have over-estimated the southeastward movement of the alleged cold front Thursday night through Saturday, I'm not really just yet sold on it. The proximity of the front bodes well for thunderstorm development more than it does for record-breaking heat here at the coast. And if the Bermuda HP flow is southwesterly some cooling breezes here are also a reasonable possibility with storms possibly forming on seabreeze fronts each day. We'll just have to wait and see day by day how this unfolds. NAM this morning came out with lower temperatures for tomorrow and Wednesday than on previous runs for whatever that's worth. But as we know, NAM is not terribly reliable. WX/PT

My thinking is that if winds are from too southerly a component coastal sections and NYC are not going to be as hot as expected tomorrow and Wednesday. This possibility needs to be watched. WX/PT

Don't be surprised if you feel differently in about 6 more weeks. July yes hasn't been too bad the low humidity being a highlight. But once the Western Atlantic Ridge takes hold I think you'll feel the humidity and heat this week and though afterwards there'll likely be a break, it seems likely that there'll be more heat later in the month with this pattern continuing. WX/PT

Most Augusts even many of them during hot summers there is a lull in the heat around mid August before one or two last surges of heat later in August or even in September, therefore this is not surprising. I would think we would have a cooler stretch from about August 10th or 11th until August 17th or 18th during which time WAR would probably be absent from the picture. WX/PT

Beautiful day out there though some locations may hit 90. The possible heatwave would start Tuesday or Wednesday. It will be interesting to see which school of thought prevails in reality with regards to the evolution into, duration, and extent of the heat. The European model is certainly the hottest case scenario at the moment. I question the NWS forecast of upper 80s on Monday with the warm front approaching the area. More than likely there will be clouds at the very least with the possibility of a few showers and I would doubt temperatures get much above 80 if they even get that high. WX/PT

ECMWF now also a little too far south with the placement of WAR to allow for a record breaking or prolonged heatwave for our area at least through August 6th. A weak b-door front coming through late on Aug 5th or the night of the 5th. It does not preclude a record-breaking or prolonged heatwave from happening a little later during the month of August and the ensembles continue to show a favorable pattern of it. WX/PT

GFS breaks down the WAR too fast so it moves a cold front right into it on Aug 9th and then displaces it to the south and east. If it's scenario were true the heat would probably build back in no later than Aug 14th anyway. Either way or even with the CMC maps we got some heat whether it's a prolonged heatwave or record-breaking heat we do not know yet but the ensembles consistently point to some very hot conditions. WX/PT

Here we go again with the GFS being schooled by the other models. Now the inconsistent but improved CMC the relatively cool model again, still hot. WX/PT

Following these models and the pending heat later next week is interesting tonight. Last night the CMC was much cooler and had backed off of the heat in the east. Tonight it is the GFS which is abbreviating any bit of heat with kind of a backdoor cold front. The extreme heat back into Minnesota on the GFS. But the CMC has almost come around to the last night's GFS. I think the deal is this. The question, the exact strength and position of the Western Atlantic Ridge and GFS I believe is having difficulty picking up on exactly that. It's placing W.A.R too far south and too weak thereby allowing high pressure to slowly work its way southward along the coast while the CMC has a robust W.A.R less suppressed and it is able to dominate any feather which tries to come south. As a result on the GFS tonight there's no genuine heatwave and no extreme heat. I think it's wrong but we'll see. WX/PT

The operational models will go back and forth on the heat (or in the winter on the snowstorm) until 2-4 days from the event then kind of draw a line in the sand. The GFS sometimes draws and line in the sand at that point and is still wrong. The compelling factor here are the ensembles which have been and continue to be quite hot. That tilts the scale towards favoring more heat or even extreme heat. WX/PT

The Euro about a day slower bringing in the heat. WX/PT

Burn baby burn. Cold fronts drop down, weak high pressure systems behind them get swallowed up by and absorbed into the W.A.R. This should give us 3 H's, near or over 100 degree heat for a day or two, and perhaps another prolonged heatwave. WX/PT

Tonight it's WAR doing it. GFS seems determined to attain the 3 H's and that 100 degree heat at Central Park. WX/PT

Yes I posted a map like that late last night then this morning's run dropped it and 18Z brought it back. But it is very much in the time-frame during which the GFS is extremely poor and not to be relied upon. I posted to the map just to show what 100 degrees and the 3 H's would look like but we're nowhere near there yet. If the maps keep showing that and if other models jump on board, we will definitely have reason to talk it up some more and I do think it's possible that that may happen at some point in the next 8 weeks. Even though this current heatwave has ended in NYC we're still very much in an above normal temperature pattern. WX/PT

I'd give it at this point a 50% chance for Central Park. The point is that the front isn't getting here until overnight and we do not know exactly where the heaviest rain will fall as this first batch of showers/storms moves through. There could be a break and skies could partially clear out for an hour or two this afternoon in between showers/storms and it could get to 90. WX/PT

This is in the fantasy range on the GFS but if this ever happened, we'd have the 3 H's and very likely 100+ degrees in Central Park. WX/PT

I think everyone reacts differently to the heat and humidity. For some a tropical type climate is comfortable and others prefer the desert. WX/PT

Did Central Park drop off the map again? WX/PT

I think you'll be seeing the 3 H's in about 3 weeks. WX/PT

Park hit 92 and are now down to 77. WX/PT