Wxoutlooksblog

Maps look just a little better at 240 hours today. At least there's HP over the coastal waters of the southeastern U.S. It's a start maybe. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2025051212/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_11.png

I think it will probably happen again. WX/PT

Along with 1995, 1999, and 2002. WX/PT

Not quite. Similar in some ways. WX/PT

The current pattern as shown by all of the models doesn't bode well for heat. This pattern would have to break completely to allow heat to get into the NYC Metro Region. Yes, some mid 80s days are possible but here's the problem. You still have a very active west to east flow of low pressure systems and the jet stream and out ahead of them/it the heat gets wrapped around into Canada while copious moisture builds northward and northwestward from the Gulf of Mexico and off of the east coast respectively. So it's over the top heat until further notice. If you're in Ontario or nw NY State even parts of northern New England you can see a day here and there of heat. But in the big cities of the northeast it's nearly impossible especially with high pressure tending to stall over the offshore waters of New England. That's right, no Bermuda HP instead HP over the NE coastal waters. Were this pattern longterm I'd think we'd see near normal temps and above normal rainfall in NYC for the next 2 months. If the pattern breaks we probably will see heat. If and when that happens is anybody's guess. WX/PT

More skeptical now about 90 degree weather for NYC during the month of May than I was a week ago. The pattern seems to remain very stormy and over the top with the heat with an active storm track now out of the Gulf of Mexico and across the southeastern states tending to back up along the east coast and often times hooking back inland at or prior to our latitude. This is a pattern which can produce way above normal rainfall in the east for our region and points south especially. There is an outside chance that we find enough sunshine on a day or two May 14th-21st but I'm doubtful at this time. I think it's going to be extremely active and wet. Some locations well to our northwest even over northwest NY State & parts of Canada may have a better chance at a day or two of the early heat. WX/PT

I think NYC receives its first shot of heat sometime between May 17th-24th. It just seems to be timing out that way with eventually a high pressure ridge settling over the eastern mid west and the east. Hinted on long range GFS and Euro. WX/PT

12Z euro actually had two quite warm days warm days May 7th, 8th....outside chance at a stray 90 or two. I do not believe it will happen but we'll see. WX/PT

I doubt this pattern lasts throughout the summer. I'd be quite surprised if it did. WX/PT

I would think the first chance for any heat and I'm far from guaranteeing it then would be after about May 16th. Up until then it looks like the trough over southeast Canada, northern NE and the nw west Atlantic keeps backing up. The Euro went from developing the upper low to our west to developing it over the ne or western Atlantic. This pretty much cancels any heat chances until further notice. WX/PT

Today's Euro settles the upper low over the northeast. So maybe we'll have days and days of partly sunny weather with showers & storms as the atmosphere destabilizes each day. Could be. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2025042612/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_10.png

The first 2 weeks of May looks to be on the wetter side. I think there will be a process of the fast west to east jet breaking down whereby initially we may see a few cut-off upper lows sitting over portions of the mid west or southeastern states. For most of April we've seen a ridge/Bermuda HP try to develop off the southeast coast and I think that's going to take a bit of a vacation as a strong southeasterly flow tends to set up over our region. It looks like near normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for most of the first half of May. It will be humid. WX/PT

The first 2 weeks of May looks to be on the wetter side. I think there will be a process of the fast west to east jet breaking down whereby initially we may see a few cut-off upper lows sitting over portions of the mid west or southeastern states. For most of April we've seen a ridge/Bermuda HP try to develop off the southeast coast and I think that's going to take a bit of a vacation as a strong southeasterly flow tends to set up over our region. It looks like near normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for most of the first half of May. It will be humid. WX/PT

We have this situation where it began with corporations corrupting our system then evolved to global corporations then foreign interest lobbies like AIPAC. The effect is that of creating legalized bribery of all our political leaders to a point at which almost all of them are corrupted & need to be replaced. Of course their staying in office until their death doesn't help. WX/PT

Capitalism is definitely a part of the problem. WX/PT

I am going for 25 but I don't think it's going to be so dry this summer. But I do suspect that at its peak and perhaps in early September this summer (July, early August) will be very hot. But I do look for next summer to feature a return of summers like 1966, 1983, 1993, etc. WX/PT

There are some indications that summer 2025 might be stormier with above normal temperatures but not over 27 90+ days at Central Park due to storminess and as others have said the tendency for winds on the drier days to be more southerly. In fact the long range Euro maps support this idea for 2025 but make summer 2026 the extremely hot summer with a drought. WX/PT

I would think we could have an isolated warm day or two during the first half of April but a "warm pattern" probably not. I think that in the cool or possibly even cold pattern we could see a warm day if a warm front lifts just north of us briefly. There's still leftover confluence over northern New England and the Canadian Maritime provinces and the duration of any warmth should be very brief. Later in April possibly as early as sometime during the second or third week of the month may be a different story where we could have an isolated cool/cold day in a much warmer pattern (70s/low 80s). WX/PT

To some extent at least for the first week or ten days of April I tend to agree with Accuweather if that's what they're going for. I think that towards the end of the second week of April or the beginning or middle of the third week of April the pattern will somewhat dramatically flip/flop bringing warmth to most of the East Coast from D.C. to NYC. When I speak of warmth in this case I am speaking of 70s and lower 80s, not 90. WX/PT

For the potentially warm or snowy period 3/28-4/3 depending on what you look at, I'm looking for the warmth to get stuck just south of NYC with fog/drizzle then showers/storms temperatures in the 60s mostly. 73 up to Newark maybe. But I could see rapid warming during the second or third week of April perhaps up to mid 80s region wide for a time, and 90 first or second week of May. I think we'll see a strong Bermuda HP set up early and often this season. WX/PT

It looks as though we might transition back to a colder wetter pattern for a while beginning next weekend. WX/PT

I think the coldest we are going to see from this point is highs in the lower 40s and lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s but I think over most of the next 2 weeks except for just a couple of days 50s+ we'll see highs upper 40s and lows lower 30s. I do not think the NYC Metro Region will see any more accumulating snows. Maybe a flurry. I think there is a 50% chance we hit 70 degrees briefly on one of the warmer days in the next 2 weeks. WX/PT

Though not shown on the HRRR I do believe there will be a general dusting to an inch across most of the NYC Metro Region tomorrow afternoon and evening. WX/PT

Not for Long Island and most of Queens. WX/PT

We've come around to many of the models now showing light snow for at least a time with at least 36 more hours to go. Additional changes possible/likely. WX/PT