Wxoutlooksblog

Meteorologist 891 Posted 3 minutes ago I'm noticing almost kind of a jump on the maps from April into May. We seem to be quickly jumping into a much warmer possibly eventually hot summer pattern. Temperatures were modeled to be in the mid-upper 60s here for today and we're going to top out somewhere between 78-83. There is a southeast wind but it's very light and the temperatures have warmed quickly up until now with no clouds. By a week from now we could be at least flirting with 90. Both GFS and CMC show this. Bermuda HP trying to take shape as the nw Atlantic upper low gradually loses its grip. WX/PT

I'm noticing almost kind of a jump on the maps from April into May. We seem to be quickly jumping into a much warmer possibly eventually hot summer pattern. Temperatures were modeled to be in the mid-upper 60s here for today and we're going to top out somewhere between 78-83. There is a southeast wind but it's very light and the temperatures have warmed quickly up until now with no clouds. By a week from now we could be at least flirting with 90. Both GFS and CMC show this. Bermuda HP trying to take shape as the nw Atlantic upper low gradually loses its grip. WX/PT

Little if any prolonged warmth or heat prior to May 10th. Yes a day or two of 70s to perhaps near 80 the 29th-30th of April but the upper low over the nw Atlantic continues to dominate into mid May possibly beyond. WX/PT

I think it may be in the 80s to near 90 next Monday. We'll see what if any backdoor activity there is and how westerly our surface winds are. If the winds are more southerly, we'll say in the lower 80s. If we see a b-door front Sunday night we'll stay in the 60s/70s. WX/PT

We are still in a wet pattern with an upper low in the northwestern Atlantic dominating. We've had computer model runs suggesting that this pattern might end or shift northward but thus far they've all been wrong. The best we can do in this type of pattern is an isolated day here and there around 80 perhaps but mostly 70s with quite a few days still only in the upper 50s and 60s. WX/PT

Still there. WX/PT

This is the problem and it was also the problem a year ago. We'll see if that upper low ever relinquishes its domination over the weather in the northeast this summer. Last year it really didn't. And the ridge building is in the Plains States. Plains and western mid west. WX/PT

I did not say it took that. And I also stated there were two out of 11 30+ 90+ day summers without any heat prior to June. WX/PT

I'm not. I'm not saying we won't but I am anything but very confident about it. WX/PT

In 1980 you had two 90+ days in May. WX/PT

There were 11 30+ 90 degree day summers for Central Park. 2 of them had no 90+ days prior to June. Make of that what you will. WX/PT

I often refer to the 90+ Central Park page. https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/90DegreeDays.pdf WX/PT

A day or more of 90+ at Central Park. I always use Central Park just to keep the statistics even. WX/PT

Meanwhile the Euro having onshore winds would be 10-15 degrees cooler. WX/PT

And now from 00Z run to 12Z run night and day differences in this crappy GFS model. Who knows which is correct? Too early to say but 12Z GFS signaling a pattern change on tax day and we could be well into the 80s and maybe higher. WX/PT

1966 and 1983 are the only 30+ 90 degree day summers without at least some heat in April or May. WX/PT

I agree except that if you look back at the very hot summers you usually find some heat beginning in April or May. Not that it's mandatory. But I agree with your point and some here have mentioned a likelihood or possibility of a scary hot summer. WX/PT

It's not an official call. Just saying that if the current pattern didn't altogether almost reverse, it could happen. And I'm sure I said that the other few times as well. It is difficult at this time to imagine how this pattern changes because of its persistence but persistent patterns have changed in other years so it's possible. WX/PT

Looks like a basically cool/wet pattern into the first part of May with an isolated day here or there up around 70. WX/PT

Again GFS and GEFS mapping out the way to a cool wet summer and if weather systems are situated anything like this we won't be seeing any hurricanes near the east coast. It's early so things could change but idea of an upper low over the northeast and northwest Atlantic is awfully persistent. I gotta hope these maps are as bogus as all the heat the model advertised last August. WX/PT

Looking at the maps tonight I'm not really seeing much of any change in the weather we've been having for the last 5 weeks over the next 2 weeks. In fact the latest model guidance gives one the feeling that a cool stormy pattern could last another 2-4 weeks as GEFS tends to feature some ridging out west. Looks like last year or maybe even a little worse. WX/PT

I don't entirely agree. How about this situation on the CMC at 120 hours which just introduced snow on its maps for nearby to our north and west. It's not fantasy that there are some colder air masses than normal dropping in from Canada which can complicate precip type issues with an ideal storm track and therefore model runs will occasionally hit on the perfect set up. Our skill set must differentiate between genuine threats and outright mistakes in modeling. WX/PT

It has come close. Hopefully next time. WX/PT

I think they are both valid points. There were more seasons with close to normal or below normal precipitation back then and the ocean temperatures were generally cooler. With climate change we are getting generally stronger storms with more moisture. 1979-1993 it was rare you'd see a model ever crank out 2.00" precip during an event. Now it's a regular thing. WX/PT

Yes let's not get ahead of ourselves. We have some warm to very warm weather ahead of us but also a lot of damp at least partially rainy days with temperatures in the 40s. We'll take the warmth when it comes. WX/PT