Wxoutlooksblog

March 3rd-4th arctic intrusion?? I do not think so though it looks most likely below normal with a few additional snow threats. I could see daytime highs low-mid 30s overnight lows upper teens or lower 20s a day or two. WX/PT

New Orleans is my favorite city. I've been there 23 times. Have fun!! WX/PT

I generally agree with this. WX/PT

Someone posted that the EURO AI was "east". I just checked it right up against its placement on the 18Z run it's nearly identical. WX/PT

So sorry about the loss of your mom. WX/PT

I think this has top 5 potential in NYC barring a sudden right hand turn. WX/PT

Could be right. Changes to all snow as the storm comes closer Sunday night. WX/PT

I think the 12Z Euro AI may have been the final call on this storm for our region. At most I think it grazes the area with a light snowfall. It could be a complete whiff. We'll know for sure by sometime tomorrow. But that's how I am currently leaning. Very light snowfall to zippo. WX/PT

If I knew the answer to that. No the models know better than we humans do. But I will say that historically it's gone both ways. And it's also possible they'll bring back and less magnificent storm of 1-3,2-4, 3-6" or so or that we'll remain in the outer snowbands with a lighter/wetter snowfall. We need the ridge out west to stay stronger and leave enough room for this system to get wrapped up the way some of the models earlier depicted it. On most of the 00Z runs the top of the ridge was flattened making for a more progressive flatter trough in the east. As long as the AI models have this thing IMO it's a legitimate threat. WX/PT

All the models wobble back and forth 4-5 days ahead of storm. Does nobody remember multiple global models taking Boxing Day out to sea 2-4 days prior to the event? WX/PT

It's actually an increasingly favorable pattern for a storm. Amplification of the jet is increasing and things are slowing down just a little. That's as good as it gets going towards March & April. And there's still plenty of cold air to work with though I do think we will likely have a warmer stretch at some point soon. The cold is still cold enough. WX/PT

The GFS didn't lose the storm, the trough flattened out a bit so the storm system slipped out to our south and east. That could happen. The Icon did the same thing really. Not to say it will but this can easily trend back closer to us on those models. WX/PT

The operational GFS has lost storms frequently. The icon and GFS losing this at this time-frame is not untypical. The verdict is still out. WX/PT

I think this threat was over last night. WX/PT

Feb 1st storm still a threat but as of now is out to sea, Feb 5th-6th currently more of a threat. This could all change. WX/PT

Celebrating the anniversary of Feb 5-6 1978. Break out the champagne WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2026012600/ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_71.png

It could be about twice what we had yesterday. It was also on the Euro AI and GFS. And of course then there's a storm to celebrate the anniversary of the great 1978 storm. You wouldn't want to miss that one. WX/PT

Heavy sleet here in Douglaston. WX/PT

I'm not yet convinced we are going back to an all northern stream based pattern though we might temporarily. In the long run for February I think there will be a semi active subtropical jet and that we get at least one or two southern stream or phase-up storm systems up our way. WX/PT

A few pings here. Mix of larger flakes and sleet. WX/PT

Not that long IMO. WX/PT

They'll end up with around 9 or 10". WX/PT

I think Central Park has snow until at least 3PM. WX/PT

When the best dynamics pass ne of you the snow should pretty much end and you'll have sleet. WX/PT

I think you'll start to hear pingers between 2-3PM and finish with 10-11". WX/PT