Wxoutlooksblog
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Heat cancel once again for next week. It looks as though the NYC Metro Region will wait a while longer to see its first 90 degree heat. The warmth will try to go over the top but another upper low will probably develop somewhere in the western Atlantic and keep the very warm/hot air from spreading into the northeast and mid Atlantic. Though we should not see the coolness of this week and last week with temperatures the first week of June mainly in the mid-upper 70s maybe a day or two up around 80. WX/PT
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EPS, GEPS, GFS now pushing the heat into the southern sections of the northeastern U.S. (that's us) from about June 2nd-6th. I could see given the latest maps mid 80s to near 90 for the NYC Metro over that period of time at least. A reasonable chance of notching our first 90 at CPK then. WX/PT
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Yes the later Sunday maps did show the heat building further eastward and less over the top. But they keep flipping back and forth and first we have to see how the models handle the rain maker next weekend, whether or not it is suppressed and if not how long it sticks around with another cold pool aloft. WX/PT
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It's becoming more difficult to bet on the change to warmer/hotter weather. The pattern of the cold cyclonic flow aloft keeps repeating itself to the point that I think it's going to be very hard to get out of this. Each time a curly cue upper low develops it helps the trough deepen along the coast allowing for more of them. Meanwhile the height rises/warmth and heat are well over the top and staying to our west. As I see it now this could be the story through a good part of June even. We may be waiting until the last week of June or first half of July to see our first 90+ degree day. For now it looks as though rainfall continues to be near to above average with mainly cooler than normal temps, maybe a few isolated warm days here and there but no warmer than normal pattern. WX/PT
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Dry air winning the battle so I'm going to an event in Manhattan that I was tentative about due to the weather. Hopefully the heavier rains hold off until after 10PM tonight and I think they will. As for end of May/early June still tentative about pattern change at that point at this time. GFS warmth/heat cancel but I haven't seen Euro yet. EPS was on board for a change so the night and day changes by the GFS are to be expected and we'll see about the Euro. WX/PT
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It might be interesting to watch the timing of the end of this pattern. Some of the models are indicating a quick turn-around into summer at the very end of May and during the first week of June. While one must be skeptical because this pattern has been so stubborn to leave, it can't last forever. WX/PT
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I think this is possible. WX/PT
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The upper atmosphere could be a bit chill. Can't rule out a shower. WX/PT
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I think true summertime conditions this summer will begin late probably in mid to late June. In the meantime we can catch a single day here and there like yesterday but there is virtually no chance of lasting warmth or probably of any heat. An active storm track and frequent cold fronts with the trough centered just to our east and northeast prevents it. WX/PT
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Maps look just a little better at 240 hours today. At least there's HP over the coastal waters of the southeastern U.S. It's a start maybe. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2025051212/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_11.png
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I think it will probably happen again. WX/PT
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Along with 1995, 1999, and 2002. WX/PT
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Not quite. Similar in some ways. WX/PT
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The current pattern as shown by all of the models doesn't bode well for heat. This pattern would have to break completely to allow heat to get into the NYC Metro Region. Yes, some mid 80s days are possible but here's the problem. You still have a very active west to east flow of low pressure systems and the jet stream and out ahead of them/it the heat gets wrapped around into Canada while copious moisture builds northward and northwestward from the Gulf of Mexico and off of the east coast respectively. So it's over the top heat until further notice. If you're in Ontario or nw NY State even parts of northern New England you can see a day here and there of heat. But in the big cities of the northeast it's nearly impossible especially with high pressure tending to stall over the offshore waters of New England. That's right, no Bermuda HP instead HP over the NE coastal waters. Were this pattern longterm I'd think we'd see near normal temps and above normal rainfall in NYC for the next 2 months. If the pattern breaks we probably will see heat. If and when that happens is anybody's guess. WX/PT
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More skeptical now about 90 degree weather for NYC during the month of May than I was a week ago. The pattern seems to remain very stormy and over the top with the heat with an active storm track now out of the Gulf of Mexico and across the southeastern states tending to back up along the east coast and often times hooking back inland at or prior to our latitude. This is a pattern which can produce way above normal rainfall in the east for our region and points south especially. There is an outside chance that we find enough sunshine on a day or two May 14th-21st but I'm doubtful at this time. I think it's going to be extremely active and wet. Some locations well to our northwest even over northwest NY State & parts of Canada may have a better chance at a day or two of the early heat. WX/PT
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I think NYC receives its first shot of heat sometime between May 17th-24th. It just seems to be timing out that way with eventually a high pressure ridge settling over the eastern mid west and the east. Hinted on long range GFS and Euro. WX/PT
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12Z euro actually had two quite warm days warm days May 7th, 8th....outside chance at a stray 90 or two. I do not believe it will happen but we'll see. WX/PT
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I doubt this pattern lasts throughout the summer. I'd be quite surprised if it did. WX/PT
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I would think the first chance for any heat and I'm far from guaranteeing it then would be after about May 16th. Up until then it looks like the trough over southeast Canada, northern NE and the nw west Atlantic keeps backing up. The Euro went from developing the upper low to our west to developing it over the ne or western Atlantic. This pretty much cancels any heat chances until further notice. WX/PT
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Today's Euro settles the upper low over the northeast. So maybe we'll have days and days of partly sunny weather with showers & storms as the atmosphere destabilizes each day. Could be. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2025042612/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_10.png
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The first 2 weeks of May looks to be on the wetter side. I think there will be a process of the fast west to east jet breaking down whereby initially we may see a few cut-off upper lows sitting over portions of the mid west or southeastern states. For most of April we've seen a ridge/Bermuda HP try to develop off the southeast coast and I think that's going to take a bit of a vacation as a strong southeasterly flow tends to set up over our region. It looks like near normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for most of the first half of May. It will be humid. WX/PT
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The first 2 weeks of May looks to be on the wetter side. I think there will be a process of the fast west to east jet breaking down whereby initially we may see a few cut-off upper lows sitting over portions of the mid west or southeastern states. For most of April we've seen a ridge/Bermuda HP try to develop off the southeast coast and I think that's going to take a bit of a vacation as a strong southeasterly flow tends to set up over our region. It looks like near normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for most of the first half of May. It will be humid. WX/PT
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We have this situation where it began with corporations corrupting our system then evolved to global corporations then foreign interest lobbies like AIPAC. The effect is that of creating legalized bribery of all our political leaders to a point at which almost all of them are corrupted & need to be replaced. Of course their staying in office until their death doesn't help. WX/PT
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Capitalism is definitely a part of the problem. WX/PT
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I am going for 25 but I don't think it's going to be so dry this summer. But I do suspect that at its peak and perhaps in early September this summer (July, early August) will be very hot. But I do look for next summer to feature a return of summers like 1966, 1983, 1993, etc. WX/PT
