Wxoutlooksblog

Yes the 12Z GFS and CMC are back to more reasonable temperatures as the week progresses. From Wednesday on upper 80s to lower 90s appears to be the rule with much cooler temperatures and showers/storms Wednesday night through Friday but let's remember how erratic the models are whereas the Euro has been consistently hot for most of the week and into next weekend. WX/PT

No the bigger indication is how few 0-10 degree days we see. WX/PT

As a strong believer in climate change and global warming I think this is ridiculous and outrageous. There have been heatwaves going way back. By allowing yourself to rate climate change according to the weather on a day or two you are promoting the ability of deniers to come back when it snows or is cold for a day or two and say, "see there's no climate change". It's absurd and it is NOT what climate change is. It is far bigger and based on statistics globally over 100s of years. It is not a hot day or a snowstorm. WX/PT

You also don't see 582dm thicknesses over NYC often. WX/PT

Again 2 nights in a row. GFS significant backdoor cold front comes through on Wednesday. CMC, backdoor cold front remains to our north for the entire week. It's the difference between a 3-4 day heatwave starting Sunday and a 5-6 day heatwave starting Sunday. Whatever, upper 90s to lower 100s likely at least Monday & Tuesday. Notably, GFS has a second surge of 90+ degree heat later in the period for at least Saturday 6/28 & Sunday 6/29. WX/PT

The difference between the GFS and most of the other models is that the GFS has much higher heights out west while the Euro, EPS, and CMC have more of a trough out west. The higher heights on the GFS out west (very possibly a mistake) allow the high pressure and backdoor front over eastern Canada to drop southward into our region. If the GFS corrects and introduces lower heights out west it will probably become more like the other models. Likewise if the other models start showing higher heights out west they will be more aggressive with the backdoor cold front. WX/PT

00Z GFS did NOT have the backdoor cold front Wednesday. It stayed well to our north then got here Friday night and quickly washed out with 576dm thicknesses building around it. The 00Z GFS when compared to the 12Z GFS is hotter and longer duration heat lasting from Sunday through perhaps Saturday or even maybe the following Sunday. And wouldn't you know, the heat is poised to rebuild into the region the very beginning of July according to its fantasy range maps. There'll be lots of thunderstorm activity IMO. The GGEM did have the Wednesday evening cold front with cooler weather Thursday & Friday (onshore winds). WX/PT

18Z GFS had a backdoor cold front on Wednesday. The winds back to northeast dropping temperatures back towards more reasonably quite warm to maringally hot levels by Thursday. The GFS is extremely erratic, however, and the ECMWF a little less-so. But also the EPS trended slightly less hot than prior runs. So, wait to see more before forecasting high temperatures in the 105-108 degree range. I think we will have a chance of our first heatwave of the season and maybe the most intense heat since 2010 but we really do not know for sure yet, there's lots of time prior to next week for things to change. WX/PT

I tend to agree. We'll see. I think the message is that it will be hot with probably the hottest heatwave since 2010. Maybe we are locked into at least 5 consecutive days of mid 90s+. And I would look for the hottest days to top out probably between 102-104 if we do in fact exceed 100. Lots of time for the 100s to become unraveled here. It can all be messed up with backdoor fronts, onshore winds, or thunderstorms. WX/PT

I can remember days in July & August when temperatures stayed in the low 60s and it rained all day. It's not common, but it happens once in a while. WX/PT

I now do not think we'll see a 90 at Central Park before June 18th and probably not until after the 23rd if in June at all. WX/PT

An outside chance of briefly touching 90 on Thursday but I favor Central Park topping out at 88/89. Gonna be close. WX/PT

The latter part of this summer might begin to turn drier but the drier pattern could also hold off until after summer. We'll see. WX/PT

I'm still not seeing any heat this week with possibly one or two days in the June 11-14 time-frame. But overall it does not to me like an above normal temperature pattern for our area. I'm aware some of the longer range guidance has a ridge over the eastern Canada and the Maritime Provinces nosing back towards us but that is really not a heat signal for the big cities of the northeast and coastal sections. We do not want to see high pressure set up so close to us or in the coastal waters se of New England. It's very much an over the top type of signal and the flow remains active with lots of cold fronts and an active storm track. The warm days are mostly low-mid 80s, yes high overnight minimums sometimes but also a cool push of air every so often. Looks near to perhaps slightly below normal temps to me and wetter than normal for most of us. WX/PT

Sounds about right. For now the heat is almost always going to be over the top. WX/PT

If there is again a very hot summer like the summers of 1983, 1993, 1953, and 1966 I believe it will occur when we are in a drier less active phase which might be one of the next two summers not this one. This summer all indications point to frequent cold fronts and low pressure systems whether they be tropical or not moving across the country from west to east or or out of the Gulf Of Mexico. This summer we can look forward to lots of onshore breezes, marine layers, and mid-upper 80s. Parts of Canada could be hotter than NYC. WX/PT

For the city and on Long Island I'm seeing mostly mid-upper 80s Thursday & Friday. I do not think Central Park will notch its first 90 this week but they could get close on one of the days. I still think 84-88 degree high temperatures are more likely. Next weekend once again looks active and showery even though we may still be in the warm air. The shower activity along with local afternoon onshore winds should help keep Central Park and LI below 90. WX/PT

Heat cancel once again for next week. It looks as though the NYC Metro Region will wait a while longer to see its first 90 degree heat. The warmth will try to go over the top but another upper low will probably develop somewhere in the western Atlantic and keep the very warm/hot air from spreading into the northeast and mid Atlantic. Though we should not see the coolness of this week and last week with temperatures the first week of June mainly in the mid-upper 70s maybe a day or two up around 80. WX/PT

EPS, GEPS, GFS now pushing the heat into the southern sections of the northeastern U.S. (that's us) from about June 2nd-6th. I could see given the latest maps mid 80s to near 90 for the NYC Metro over that period of time at least. A reasonable chance of notching our first 90 at CPK then. WX/PT

Yes the later Sunday maps did show the heat building further eastward and less over the top. But they keep flipping back and forth and first we have to see how the models handle the rain maker next weekend, whether or not it is suppressed and if not how long it sticks around with another cold pool aloft. WX/PT

It's becoming more difficult to bet on the change to warmer/hotter weather. The pattern of the cold cyclonic flow aloft keeps repeating itself to the point that I think it's going to be very hard to get out of this. Each time a curly cue upper low develops it helps the trough deepen along the coast allowing for more of them. Meanwhile the height rises/warmth and heat are well over the top and staying to our west. As I see it now this could be the story through a good part of June even. We may be waiting until the last week of June or first half of July to see our first 90+ degree day. For now it looks as though rainfall continues to be near to above average with mainly cooler than normal temps, maybe a few isolated warm days here and there but no warmer than normal pattern. WX/PT

Dry air winning the battle so I'm going to an event in Manhattan that I was tentative about due to the weather. Hopefully the heavier rains hold off until after 10PM tonight and I think they will. As for end of May/early June still tentative about pattern change at that point at this time. GFS warmth/heat cancel but I haven't seen Euro yet. EPS was on board for a change so the night and day changes by the GFS are to be expected and we'll see about the Euro. WX/PT

It might be interesting to watch the timing of the end of this pattern. Some of the models are indicating a quick turn-around into summer at the very end of May and during the first week of June. While one must be skeptical because this pattern has been so stubborn to leave, it can't last forever. WX/PT

I think this is possible. WX/PT

The upper atmosphere could be a bit chill. Can't rule out a shower. WX/PT