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Wxoutlooksblog

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  1. Wxoutlooksblog
    I think slight variations on this pattern could last most of the summer. I'm not looking for much heat but if there is some most of it from mid July to mid August. Then we'll see the tropics perk up with most vulnerable areas IMO the Gulf Coast, southeast U.S. coast, and islands in the tropics. I'm looking for early recurvature thinking that all features will be slightly south and east of their usual position on the maps. WX/PT
  2. Wxoutlooksblog
    I'd say any heat in the northeast is very unlikely prior to June 15th with a lower than normal probability of any heat for the remainder of June. Out west, it's the reverse. They will bake. WX/PT
  3. Wxoutlooksblog
    Not really seeing how we can get any heat into the NYC Metro Region with a pattern like this. WX/PT
  4. Wxoutlooksblog
    I'm not sure if these maps are the stuff low 90s are really made of in this pattern which has only slightly and temporarily changed. But I could see borderline heat in the 86-91 degree range across the region each day. And maybe Central Park just barely touches 90 one or two of the days. I could see that, especially Wednesday. WX/PT
  5. Wxoutlooksblog
    I think that if anything, temperatures will probably over perform this week Tues-Thurs especially Wednesday. WX/PT
  6. Wxoutlooksblog
    From what I am observing on the maps it would appear that there could be at least a couple of days of early season borderline heat next week per the Euro Op, Euro AI, and the CMC. GFS is totally not on board for this. We are talking upper 80s to perhaps low 90s. Winds are w-sw. WX/PT
  7. Wxoutlooksblog
    This is really starting to get extremely annoying. WX/PT
  8. Wxoutlooksblog
    Meteorologist 891 Posted 3 minutes ago I'm noticing almost kind of a jump on the maps from April into May. We seem to be quickly jumping into a much warmer possibly eventually hot summer pattern. Temperatures were modeled to be in the mid-upper 60s here for today and we're going to top out somewhere between 78-83. There is a southeast wind but it's very light and the temperatures have warmed quickly up until now with no clouds. By a week from now we could be at least flirting with 90. Both GFS and CMC show this. Bermuda HP trying to take shape as the nw Atlantic upper low gradually loses its grip. WX/PT
  9. Wxoutlooksblog
    I'm noticing almost kind of a jump on the maps from April into May. We seem to be quickly jumping into a much warmer possibly eventually hot summer pattern. Temperatures were modeled to be in the mid-upper 60s here for today and we're going to top out somewhere between 78-83. There is a southeast wind but it's very light and the temperatures have warmed quickly up until now with no clouds. By a week from now we could be at least flirting with 90. Both GFS and CMC show this. Bermuda HP trying to take shape as the nw Atlantic upper low gradually loses its grip. WX/PT
  10. Wxoutlooksblog
    Little if any prolonged warmth or heat prior to May 10th. Yes a day or two of 70s to perhaps near 80 the 29th-30th of April but the upper low over the nw Atlantic continues to dominate into mid May possibly beyond. WX/PT
  11. Wxoutlooksblog
    I think it may be in the 80s to near 90 next Monday. We'll see what if any backdoor activity there is and how westerly our surface winds are. If the winds are more southerly, we'll say in the lower 80s. If we see a b-door front Sunday night we'll stay in the 60s/70s. WX/PT
  12. Wxoutlooksblog
    We are still in a wet pattern with an upper low in the northwestern Atlantic dominating. We've had computer model runs suggesting that this pattern might end or shift northward but thus far they've all been wrong. The best we can do in this type of pattern is an isolated day here and there around 80 perhaps but mostly 70s with quite a few days still only in the upper 50s and 60s. WX/PT
  13. Wxoutlooksblog
    Still there. WX/PT
  14. Wxoutlooksblog
    This is the problem and it was also the problem a year ago. We'll see if that upper low ever relinquishes its domination over the weather in the northeast this summer. Last year it really didn't. And the ridge building is in the Plains States. Plains and western mid west. WX/PT
  15. Wxoutlooksblog
    I did not say it took that. And I also stated there were two out of 11 30+ 90+ day summers without any heat prior to June. WX/PT
  16. Wxoutlooksblog
    I'm not. I'm not saying we won't but I am anything but very confident about it. WX/PT
  17. Wxoutlooksblog
    In 1980 you had two 90+ days in May. WX/PT
  18. Wxoutlooksblog
    There were 11 30+ 90 degree day summers for Central Park. 2 of them had no 90+ days prior to June. Make of that what you will. WX/PT
  19. Wxoutlooksblog
    I often refer to the 90+ Central Park page. https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/90DegreeDays.pdf WX/PT
  20. Wxoutlooksblog
    A day or more of 90+ at Central Park. I always use Central Park just to keep the statistics even. WX/PT
  21. Wxoutlooksblog
    Meanwhile the Euro having onshore winds would be 10-15 degrees cooler. WX/PT
  22. Wxoutlooksblog
    And now from 00Z run to 12Z run night and day differences in this crappy GFS model. Who knows which is correct? Too early to say but 12Z GFS signaling a pattern change on tax day and we could be well into the 80s and maybe higher. WX/PT
  23. Wxoutlooksblog
    1966 and 1983 are the only 30+ 90 degree day summers without at least some heat in April or May. WX/PT
  24. Wxoutlooksblog
    I agree except that if you look back at the very hot summers you usually find some heat beginning in April or May. Not that it's mandatory. But I agree with your point and some here have mentioned a likelihood or possibility of a scary hot summer. WX/PT
  25. Wxoutlooksblog
    It's not an official call. Just saying that if the current pattern didn't altogether almost reverse, it could happen. And I'm sure I said that the other few times as well. It is difficult at this time to imagine how this pattern changes because of its persistence but persistent patterns have changed in other years so it's possible. WX/PT
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