Wxoutlooksblog
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Everything posted by Wxoutlooksblog
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That's pretty common. A pattern establishes itself and the same areas get hit time after time in a given season. I still think this has a chance to veer back to last night's and yesterday's track. WX/PT
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Given high pressure positioning and dynamics I'm a little skeptical of this "flip to rain". WX/PT
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GFS doesn't make much sense. We have a closed upper low west of us. It pulls the low pressure system right up the coast offshore as shown by virtually every other model except the ICON. Even the ensembles support the track up the coast. Right now IMO the odds heavily favor it not that it couldn't change. It could. But we will watch the trends. This could possibly be a KU storm with potential for a foot or more of snow. WX/PT
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The Euro operational has a storm which if these maps verified (which they almost certainly won't) would suggest a major snowstorm possibly KU the 19th-20th. WX/PT
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On most of the operational models at 12Z and 00Z now we are starting to lose the great pattern they had up until today. The only model holding onto it is the GGEM from which the storm right after Presidents Day might be suppressed way to our south if it even has a chance to develop. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2025021000/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png
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Heavy sleet in Douglaston
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Pretty close to Cantore-Thundersnow though it's possible we just stay active with lesser amounts of snow for now and get a bigger storm towards President's Day. This is the best looking pattern we've seen in a while but I'd still prefer it if it were not so fast. WX/PT
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Timing? Just as I drove by the speed camera on Northern Blvd on my way back from the gym in Great Neck I saw a flash. I think it was lightning as I was only going 29mph in a 30mph zone. Anyway 1" on my car in Great Neck and it looked like an inch on the ground in Great Neck, a little less here in Douglaston with light snow falling. WX/PT
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Agree. 1-4"NYC Metro. 2 miles done 1 to go. WX/PT
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Rain/sleet mix currently at Planet Fitness in Great Neck. Will it be snowing after I do my 3 mile run and ab exercises? 50% chance. WX/PT
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I would make that between 5-8pm and cut amounts near the coast to a coating to 2". WX/PT
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Light dusting on grass here with drizzle. WX/PT
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Douglaston drizzle. This now 2-3 hour event 5-8pm WX/PT
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For coastal sections I am downgrading my call to 1-4". We are losing time. Here in Douglaston light snow with nothing on the ground or car tops or pavement and little if anything on the grass. WX/PT
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Steady light snow here now. WX/PT
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Larger flakes starting to mix. Nothing on the ground yet Douglaston. WX/PT
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Yes but will we get the inch per hour for 3-4 hours? That's the big question now. It's going to be close as this system is going to move very quickly northeast and the timing of the heavier precip and influx of cold air is all important. WX/PT
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Snow is just nw of me. Graupel/sleet just sw of me. Hoping the colder air works its way in in time for snow to pile up more than an inch or two here. I still have Snizzle. GGEM may be out-performing other models we'll see. WX/PT
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Nothing steady here in Douglaston yet. Light snow and drizzle mix or as I say "snizzle". WX/PT
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Flurries here. Douglaston Queens. WX/PT
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I think the slightly elevated temperatures that the clouds locked in will cause some locations to lose an inch or so in the first hour or two of this event. Therefore I'm shaving an inch off my forecast amounts to 2-5". WX/PT
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We've still got to watch Tuesday night-Wed and even more-so Thursday night-Friday. Then I like another threat at the end of the month or very beginning of February. WX/PT
