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Wxoutlooksblog

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  1. Wxoutlooksblog
    Tomorrow's 00Z GFS is faster and further out to sea with the weekend system/non-system than last run. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024121600/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png
  2. Wxoutlooksblog
    I totally agree with what you say. While the above fantasy is possible and we cannot completely write off anything 6-7 days ahead, it is an extremely remote chance. WX/PT
  3. Wxoutlooksblog
    No problem with cold air. But there is a problem this year with the fast west to east jet stream and the fact that no more than one model picks up on even the threat every one in five runs of it. The odds are heavily opposed to this threat materializing whereas in 2010 the odds were just not at all that way. It is a very different year, different jet stream pattern, just not the same. I know you want to say well this is similar and that is similar so maybe it will happen this time. And I say well maybe it will, or else I wouldn't have even drawn attention to it. But all probabilities right now oppose this year's threat whereas they didn't in this same way in 2010 when there was a very amplified jet not nearly as fast. WX/PT
  4. Wxoutlooksblog
    During 2010 we were saying the same thing two days before the storm. This is 7-8 days ahead. I also do not think the La Ninas or the overall weather regimes are comparable. WX/PT
  5. Wxoutlooksblog
    The Euro today brought the ocean storm Dec 21-22-23 closer to the area than previous runs (lately). I would still think this remains primarily an ocean storm but it does bear some watching because if it trended just a little closer we'd be getting some snow. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2024121512/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_7.png
  6. Wxoutlooksblog
    In the NYC Metro Region I do not think anything will accumulate if there is even any wet snow at all (which I doubt). The one threat I have noted several times that kept hope alive this month was for Dec 21-22nd. Right now IMO it doesn't look likely to come to fruition. But we'll see. Other than that unlikely threat, I see no accumulating snow threats for the NYC Metro Region for at least the next 2 weeks. WX/PT
  7. Wxoutlooksblog
    Actually, it doesn't have to. It may or may not. WX/PT
  8. Wxoutlooksblog
    The maps will keep changing. We know this because they almost always do. WX/PT
  9. Wxoutlooksblog
    The 00Z operational Euro has it over eastern LI Thursday evening. I think it's going to be all rain at the coast but it's starting to look like heavy wind-driven rain, nasty. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2024112400/ec-fast_T850_neus_6.png
  10. Wxoutlooksblog
    Surely some inland areas would see Thanksgiving Day snow from this map if it verified. I don't have precip type maps yet but for the coast it might be a close call for rain vs. snow. You do have an e-se wind initially but a good 50/50 low and incoming cold high pressure might help keep the storm south of the area and winds which could back around to north-northeast as the storm heads east south of LI could cause it to at least end as snow at the coast. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2024112200/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_8.png
  11. Wxoutlooksblog
    I think even the Bronx and north shore of Queens Cty could see some wet flakes later tomorrow. WX/PT
  12. Wxoutlooksblog
    The faster it comes out east the weaker it will be. WX/PT
  13. Wxoutlooksblog
    Some changes on the GFS this morning, not sure if they are real. The ridge over the Plains states starting to break down around 246 hours and a trough begins to take shape. In the longrun the Gulf of Mexico could open up, we'll see. We already see more activity swinging through from west to east with another Great Lakes runner around Nov 27th. WX/PT
  14. Wxoutlooksblog
    Totally agree with this. With a ridge over the center of the country the GOM moisture is cut off to any system moving across. I think moisture content of even an important low pressure system will probably be less than it usually would be. WX/PT
  15. Wxoutlooksblog
    Looks like parts of our region could get close to 80 on election day and November 6th. The ridiculous warmth and drought continue. WX/PT
  16. Wxoutlooksblog
    Odds strongly favor you will be correct. I would say different than the ones we've seen in recent previous years. I would be surprised if we didn't get more snow and colder temperatures than recent years. Then again, I see below average precipitation continuing so I'm not looking for it to be special. WX/PT
  17. Wxoutlooksblog
    We are trending towards a chillier and drier than normal pattern. It's been a very long time since we've had a colder and drier than normal winter pattern. The odds would say we're due for one. But the large scale pattern patterns do suggest that a ridge in the east builds just as winter would be establishing itself here. WX/PT
  18. Wxoutlooksblog
    How many days in a row now have we seen winds out of an easterly quadrant? It seems like since the first week of September. WX/PT
  19. Wxoutlooksblog
    Still looking for warmth at some point during the first ten days of October probably out ahead of a likely to be developing hurricane somewhere in the GOM or off the east coast. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2024092512/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_10.png
  20. Wxoutlooksblog
    I'm getting a feeling of an extremely warm second period in October from around the 6th-10th. We'll see, lots can and will change. WX/PT
  21. Wxoutlooksblog
    I'm going to guess based on what I see, maybe early October 50% chance then the stuck up pattern reloads for most of October and a complete break from this pattern in late October or early November. WX/PT
  22. Wxoutlooksblog
    Here's what the GFS is impressed with. And it makes some sense. The cut-off over the Ohio Valley sucks it right up along the coast. But it's a long ways away and could just as easily end up in the Gulf of Mexico. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024091700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_49.png
  23. Wxoutlooksblog
    Winds out of an easterly quadrant for virtually the entire month. Amazing. I still think any rain amounts in the NYC Metro would likely be on the lighter side this week. Next week maybe better. Temperatures continue above normal but not as much so. WX/PT
  24. Wxoutlooksblog
    I still have a hard time seeing much if any of the rain to our south getting in here during the mid week period. I think the dry high pressure ridge will win out with maybe somehow a few light showers working their way across our region (drier especially NYC and points north and east). I think it remains generally on the dry side through this week with continued above normal temperatures. The models continue to flip back and forth. I tend to dismiss the wetter runs. A chance of showers is reasonable in the forecast for Wednesday into Thursday. WX/PT
  25. Wxoutlooksblog
    The big low in the north Atlantic will locks in the high pressure ridge and in turn does not allow the significant rainfall to get any further north or northeast. The coastal low will heads out to sea from this point. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024091500/gfs_z500_mslp_atl_21.png
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