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Wxoutlooksblog

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  1. Wxoutlooksblog
    My feeling is that this storm will not over perform. There are two greatly inhibiting factors. The models projecting the most precip for the area develop the low pressure center very close to the area and vertical velocities are much lower than what we usually see for the NYC Metro Region to get over 2" of snow. CMC has us changing to rain at the end. But to me the first red flag, low vertical velocity numbers tell me the snow could be quite light. WX/PT
  2. Wxoutlooksblog
    Pretty good look here. I guess the models were waiting for you all to go to sleep. Of course GGEM is extremely amped up changing the snow to rain in coastal areas. WX/PT
  3. Wxoutlooksblog
    . Very light snow Douglaston and Great Neck. WX/PT
  4. Wxoutlooksblog
    Flurries in Douglaston. WX/PT
  5. Wxoutlooksblog
    Much better and snowier look tonight on all models. WX/PT
  6. Wxoutlooksblog
    Once you lose the colder air you're not getting it back unless there's a new source. The storm could make its own cold air if the peak vertical velocities stay overhead long enough. But often times they don't. We'll have to see. the maps even with my cataracts still show rain. The heavy rain is visible just east of the r/s line in Queens. I'm not sure if the wrap around snow gets in here. The storm is moving quickly rain almost into Boston. WX/PT
  7. Wxoutlooksblog
    Look at the maps. The LP is way too tucked into the NJ coast. WX/PT
  8. Wxoutlooksblog
    It looks wrong. WX/PT
  9. Wxoutlooksblog
    Boston will even probably go over to rain. WX/PT
  10. Wxoutlooksblog
    GFS and CMC are each all rain for coastal areas and the big cities of the northeast. Just not enough or cold enough air. WX/PT
  11. Wxoutlooksblog
    Another thing as of now worth noting. There is not much of a reinforcing colder air mass coming in on the backside of the storm as it pulls away. This is important because as the lifting and vertical velocity dynamics pass their peak whatever snow there is falling will probably mix or change back over. Instead of an incoming HP we have the upper low which could bring a short period of rain or a mix early Sunday night. The incoming cold air is behind that upper low. But that cold air will most likely be wasted as the next storm system heads for the Lakes. WX/PT
  12. Wxoutlooksblog
    I'd be surprised if the NAM got it right Friday evening. Saturday morning it might be within range for the NAM, maybe. WX/PT
  13. Wxoutlooksblog
    I would be extremely surprised if the NAM correctly called this event Wednesday evening. I'd be shocked really. WX/PT
  14. Wxoutlooksblog
    With regards to the micro analysis of the HP to the north. The earlier maps (yesterday and the day before) showed it better locked in place. However please note. This is still marginally cold enough air and its penetration south at all levels is highly questionable. It's going to have to be nearly perfect for this to come together as a primarily snow event for coastal sections and I think we might be on the verge of losing that possibility. On the CMC it's gone. On the GFS it's almost gone. WX/PT
  15. Wxoutlooksblog
    Oh please! It is not 1996.
  16. Wxoutlooksblog
    That system most likely all or almost all rain along the coast and in the big cities as the primary tracks into the Lakes. WX/PT
  17. Wxoutlooksblog
    I'm leaning towards taking the suppression solutions off the table. We are in what would normally be the time-frame where suppressive solutions would dominate. Only the GFS and last night's Euro to an extent have shown significant suppression. I think a major event of some kind is likely here. Exactly what, we wait another few runs to know for sure. WX/PT
  18. Wxoutlooksblog
    Don't agree. Risk is either suppression or rain. We are in a phase where most of the models will trend south and east. We most likely will be in a trending north/west trend again as the event nears. It all depends on how far these trends go in each phase. WX/PT
  19. Wxoutlooksblog
    Still got a long ways to go. In the 3-6 day time-frame it may trend again towards less amped then when we get inside of 60 or 72 hours it may reverse and trend a bit towards more amped again. This sometimes happens. We're a long ways from knowing the end result. WX/PT
  20. Wxoutlooksblog
    Given trends there's a good chance the coastal forms too late and the track of the LP is too close to coastal sections but it could still change. WX/PT
  21. Wxoutlooksblog
    Watching Jan 6th into the 7th. At this point, I have trouble seeing how this works out in in our favor. Definitely a thread the needle situation, if it comes too close to us, we're mostly rain, if it stays too far south we're on the edge of the precip get little if any. The GFS really indicated a nearly perfect track for snow from the Washington D.C. to Baltimore to Philly to NYC and LI. I'd be amazed if it actually worked out that way. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023123100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png
  22. Wxoutlooksblog
    No major change in sight. WX/PT
  23. Wxoutlooksblog
    We can wish. The pattern looks infinitely better at the end of the GFS run in the fantasy range. Finally a HP doesn't race eastward from eastern Canada and northern New England and overrunning moisture dumps lots of snow up the east coast. This at this point is nothing really but imaginary but if the fantasy maps were actually to verify we'd probably get at least 4-8" heavy wet snow. But maps on these dates will change a lot between now and then. It's encouraging however to see the model able to come up with this whereas previously we've seen pretty much nothing. WX/PT
  24. Wxoutlooksblog
    Happy Holidays everyone!! WX/PT
  25. Wxoutlooksblog
    I agree. And it's not December 1st or 13th. If what many forecasts for an active and cold winter were going to pan out, it is time to begin to see some evidence of it consistently in the longer range. I do not. Tonight and tomorrow are cold, but over the weekend and into next week, the cold leaves. There is no prolonged cold and none in sight. Yes the New Years Eve holiday weekend might be cold but dry. In order to get snow you have to have the cold and the moisture and/or storm at the same time. WX/PT
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