Wxoutlooksblog
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All the ensembles and operational models today showing a major change in the pattern occurring over time over this week, next week, and beyond. Heights building in (WAR) from se to nw over time. Cold fronts from the nw being rendered impotent, stalling, washing out, maybe one day dewpoint relief, that's it. We are getting into a much hotter overall pattern favoring eventually an extended heatwave and the probability of summer 2023 ending up with over 15 90+ days, possibly double that number. We'll just have to wait watch and see how this unfolds but it appears the stranglehold of upper low pressure over the northwest Atlantic and eastern Canada on our overall pattern here in the northeast U.S. is about to be broken. WX/PT
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All the ensembles and operational models today showing a major change in the pattern occurring over time over this week, next week, and beyond. Heights building in (WAR) from se to nw over time. Cold fronts from the nw being rendered impotent, stalling, washing out, maybe one day dewpoint relief, that's it. We are getting into a much hotter overall pattern favoring eventually an extended heatwave and the probability of summer 2023 ending up with over 15 90+ days, possibly double that number. We'll just have to wait watch and see how this unfolds but it appears the stranglehold of upper low pressure over the northwest Atlantic and eastern Canada on our overall pattern here in the northeast U.S. is about to be broken. WX/PT
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I was making a comment about a particular model run several days back. It was not a post as to whether or not extended heatwaves do or do not happen any more. I sometimes wonder if you even read the posts you think you're responding to or the context in which things are being said. Yes extended heatwaves will occur again in fact last year Central Park had 26 90+ days, not sure if you were around here or even keeping track. A few have been going for a very hot summer here. That was the subject matter. Not extended heatwaves. Thanks. WX/PT
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The have more money pay higher taxes holidays are dry lol. WX/PT
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They're not going to get out there. Enjoy the day. You are WAR protected particularly on the South Shore. WX/PT
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Storms will die off before they get out there. They are WAR protected. WAR has built in northern edge kind of a w-sw to e-ne flat line covering the ocean waters to our south and east. This is why the storms and cold fronts are not barreling on through and the storms just move very slowly to about central Nassau then die out then they reform back to the west or over NYC Metro Region. This WAR at this point is NOT a heat producer just a protective wall effect shielding the affluent out on the east end and on Fire Island. WX/PT
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Sky just opened up. Loud thunder in Douglaston. WX/PT
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I'm still not seeing any significant stretch of 90+ days for Central Park. Yes we'll be close any of the next 3-4 days but I think they'll fall just short most of them. Either storms, on shore winds, storm debris, haze are a variety of ways they can fall short. They'll come close again around the 12th, 13th, and 15th or 16th maybe. WX/PT
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Cancelled a trip to Fire Island based on the latest weather forecast model data. There certainly is a lot of support for an extremely stormy July 4th on LI. But it could almost as easily wind up mostly over the east end and Connecticut. I'm ambivalent about our cancelled plans. WX/PT
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I think it will be a little warmer than June but that's normally the case. I do not see the scenario that was shown on the 06Z GFS this morning actually happening when had the western ridge and WAR actually hooking up a situation that would probably dictate an extended heatwave. I think cold fronts are going to keep coming with lots of moist upper air disturbances in the flow off of the Pacific moving across the country. In short I think any hot weather during July will be short-lived interrupted either by a cold front or a soggy wet system moving in from the south or west. And as of now, I do not see Central Park reaching 90 more than one or two times in the first two weeks of July and probably less. If we get there on Monday the 3rd there's a good chance of some very strong to severe storms to end it quickly. WX/PT
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Tonight's run of the GFS and CMC little if any chance of 90 on Monday, slightly better chance Thursday the 6th or Friday the 7th. I still really believe we're getting to the 15th without any 90's at the Park for July. WX/PT
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There were a couple of 90 degree days on the ECMWF for next week on today's run we'll see if they're there tomorrow. The 3rd, 6th, and 7th. WX/PT
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Maybe maybe not. I think we have to wait to see how that unfolds and to see what the second half of July is going to look like. With these kinds of summers we sometimes get some early cool high pressure systems dropping down from Canada. I'm not ruling anything out just saying keep your heat expectations low this summer around here. WX/PT
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Picking right up on that last night's Euro along with today's GFS and CMC are again picking up on upper level low over eastern Canada that will renew the cyclonic flow of northwesterlies in the upper atmosphere for the northeastern U.S. including NYC through most or all of the first half of July. With this unfortunate development if you appreciate the sunny hot inferno typical of mid summer with high temperatures 90+ you probably have to wait until late in July or August. My anticipation after June averaged about 2.0 degrees below normal in NYC is for July to be almost a repeat performance the one caveat being the possibility of above normal night-time low temperatures compensating a little bit. But I'm not seeing any 90+ degree weather for NYC at this point through July 15th and I am seeing a continuation of frequent thunderstorm days, some smoke and haze, marine layers at times, all of which June featured. We're catching sort of a break today with lower humidity levels and a temporary let up in the cyclonic flow or upper low which had sat to our west for days and days but that let up will be over by Sunday. WX/PT
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I think there is at least a 40% chance of finishing this summer a bit cooler than normal. I'm not sure at this point whether there is that typical mid July inferno this year at least not if this pattern continues. I think a day or two here and there of 86-91 degree warmth/heat is more likely this summer. I would think that whatever heat we would have if any August would probably be when most of it would occur. The current pattern is kinda locked in for now. WX/PT
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Next potential of 90+ temperatures in NYC delayed to July 6th-9th and may actually get delayed until even later. Onshore winds, marine layers, and showers/storms in the area (not necessarily rain where you live) will keep most of us from getting there for a while yet. WX/PT
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Not terribly extended but July 4th-7th perhaps. At least there are signs on most of the models and ensembles. But the Euro last night backed off of it a little keeping it stormier. WX/PT
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They've really fallen apart over the last 30 minutes as they moved quickly across the area. Hopefully it will work out better tomorrow. WX/PT
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Here they come Staten Island, Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, Nassau. Our turn has arrived. Still plenty of lightning and thunder with these even though they're slightly weakened from an hour earlier. They still pack a punch. WX/PT
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Storm zone is gradually starting to shift to the east just a bit tonight. The period of time from midnight to mid morning Tuesday has potential to be a bit noisy with heavy downpours from time to time. Strong to severe storm potential resumes tomorrow PM and may even recur Wednesday PM....not sure about Wed. Thursday could be a little drier again. WX/PT
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With the upper low to the west the storms develop and hook to the left. As the upper low moves out slowly to the north and east development of storms will further east but also further north. NYC area residents looking to get their lawns watered have to hope the shift is now not too far the north and more to the east. The positive is that there's so much moisture and lift in the atmosphere over the Ohio Valley that has to sooner or later come east the odds are most of us will do well particularly later Monday into Tuesday when some severe wx is possible. WX/PT
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Next potential 90 in NYC 7/3-7/5. Then much wetter weather resumes with the next potential for heat 7/11-7/15. WX/PT
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For the radar look to the Virginia coast. Rain with some embedded thunderstorms there is headed up the eastern seaboard and if it holds together it should produce for all of LI and possibly NYC later tonight into early Saturday. WX/PT
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Again, temperatures are going to warm for the July 2nd-5th time-frame. I think it will be just be a question of how much of the rain and associated clouds with all these disturbances moving across the country affects us as to whether or not we can get into the upper 80s to lower 90s during this time frame. If we can dry out for a couple of days, maybe the 4th/5th, we could have a shot at 90. If clouds and rain persists, we will not have a shot at 90...maybe low-mid 80s. WX/PT
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I think the next 90+ potential comes during the July 2nd-5th time-frame but that doesn't mean we'll definitely get there. But I do think we have a shot at upper 80s to lower 90s over that time. Initially it looks as though the winds might again be too southerly so honing in on and hoping for July 4th, 5th. WX/PT
