Wxoutlooksblog

Quite a fun run after the autumn-like treats of 00Z. The way to get a hurricane up the coast, put an upper low over the upper mid west, build WAR on top of the hurricane blocking it so it can't' escape, and have enough ridging under it to allow it to gain latitude. And here you go. Now prior to the madness, GFS does build WAR back in from the south and east giving us a day or two of 90+ heat. GGEM is a little diffferent but not much. We wait for King Euro to speak. WX/PT

I doubt it at this point. I think the latest maps are more showing low-mid 80s with perhaps one day of mid 80s to near 90 (looks like the 21st). Then the pattern seems to revert to the June pattern of keeping the warmth and the heat to our west and we actually do get into more of a autumn-like pattern with a series of cold fronts. I'm not saying we will have seen the last days of the warmth/heat for the season, but we're close to it and maybe the se ridge or a piece of the western ridge pops in for a day sometime in October. WX/PT

The models are really facing off as to whether or not the European/GEPS western Atlantic ridge together with the part of the western ridge will build in over the northeast next week. GFS, GGEM, GEFS, EPS now in the "no" camp and then you have the Euro and GEPS in the "yes" camp. The "no" camp seems to put us back into June 2022 pattern with enough blocking that WAR stays east and the western ridge stays west and we get some warmth of short duration and a number of cold front passages. I am leaning "yes" but confidence is not high. It just takes a lot this late in the season to get us into the duration of heat that the European model has been suggesting the passed 2 runs. WX/PT

Yes I think there's an outside shot at another 90 degree day sometime in this general time-frame. Of course conditions wind direction etc would have to be almost perfect to get there but there's a chance up to September 27th. I am at the moment focused on Sept 21st and a day 3-5 days later for that 90 degree potential. Only using the word potential here to be perfectly clear that it's not likely but possible. WX/PT

Tonight coastal sections should see a few showers increasing after midnight with an isolated thunderstorm or two. Heavy rainfall tonight over coastal areas looks to be in pockets so while anyone could jackpot with an inch of rain in an hour a mile or two away gets .25" or less. As of now tomorrow morning looks to be extremely bad/good depending on how you look at it with very heavy showers, possibly a thunderstorm over most of the area with many locations receiving over 2.00" rainfall. It continues to slowly diminishes tomorrow afternoon through Wednesday with pockets of an additional 1.00-2.00" or rain. WX/PT

I'd tend to favor the CMC at this point. It is not a soaker unless you're in se Ct or until 222 hours. WX/PT

WAR is really flexing some muscle here as it builds in front of Earl all across the se, middle Atlantic, and up to about us here in the NYC Metro. Precipitation likely to under perform through tomorrow night and temperatures likely to over perform. I'm not even so sure how well coastal areas will do on Tuesday at this point. Central Park got their 25th 90+ of the season probably looking at 1-4 more. WX/PT

I'm seeing most folks are going for Central Park high temperature of 88 this afternoon. I'm thinking they're going to over-perform and end up at 89 or 90 (#25). Tomorrow may bring another shot at 90 in spite of the rapidly lowering humidity levels. The next two shots IMO would be Saturday and Sunday. A little more in the way of showers and thunderstorms later Sunday or Sunday night followed by slightly lower temperatures on Labor Day as it appears now. WX/PT

Longterm brief thought--sort of off topic, but maybe the idea of wild swings back and forth for the late fall into winter with a few opportunities for slow moving major storms possible. That doesn't mean we get any of them but maybe we do. Looks like potential for very hot weather after the holiday weekend. WX/PT

Backdoor cold front Sunday September 4th maybe? Could it cool us down for Labor Day? It's on the GFS and GGEM tonight and the ECMWF had hinted at it. Either way it's easy to see how there could be more heat beyond that point. WX/PT

Yes more heat is on the way. I suspect the marine layer could roll back in later this afternoon or this evening after high temperatures top out in the low-mid 80s, cooler at the shore but there's really no end yet in sight to either the dry and hot conditions. As we've said, maybe a thunderstorm or two Tuesday afternoon or evening scattered about the region as the cold front passes but that will not bring much if any relief to the drought. 2 days of temperatures in the low-mid 80s followed by more upper 80s to lower 90s. Then we watch (is it) Danielle meander off the east coast possibly moving out to sea and more hot dry weather cover the region through at least September 12th. As I've said I think we're going to around September 20th with this kind of weather pattern the fire danger only getting worse until we get some significant rainfall here. WX/PT

Central Park has touched 90 for the 24th time this season. Today getting there was not even expected. They should get to 90+ for a 25th time Tuesday though there is an outside chance for Monday (just as there was an outside chance for today). Now I'm expecting the Park to get there 26-30 times for the season before all is said and done. WX/PT

I've called it as September 20th for a while now though maybe it can even go a week later, we'll see. WX/PT

I'm doubtful that the Park will get to #24 90+ days today it's a little too active in terms of t-storm development. WX/PT

Where did all these "cool folks" come from, looking at every model run and pulling the coolest solutions of them out and going by it. The fastest way to debunk the "cool" solutions is one look at the EPS. We (Central Park) still have at least 3-6 days of 90+ to go and probably 6-12 of 85+. Enjoy the heat! WX/PT

22 times for Central Park as they made it to 90 late this afternoon. They're still on track to end up with 24-28 90+ days this season by the time its all said and done. I'm looking for them to hit it tomorrow, maybe Friday, probably not over the weekend, maybe Monday, almost certainly Tuesday and possibly Wednesday (next week) which will depend on the timing of the cold front. Another few 90+ days perhaps during September. WX/PT

W.A.R. is protecting coastal sections from getting the significant rain amounts they need. WX/PT

Some scattered storms around the area now as is expected with the slight uptick in humidity levels. But Central Park is on the edge of notching their 21st 90 degree day of the season. I'm finding it easy to see the Park getting to 25 maybe more than that by sometime in September. After today the next possible 90 in the Park being Thursday the 25th with an even better chance Friday the 26th. WX/PT

I have the feeling that for the NYC Metro Region 90 degree heat could occur off and on through September 20th followed by 85 degree warmth off and on through October 15th. It looks like a warmer than normal autumn ahead for our area with drought conditions contingent upon any tropical moisture that can wander up this way. WX/PT

Posts on the demise of the 2022 Atlantic Basin Hurricane season could be premature if tonight's' GFS is any indication. There are four hurricanes on this map. Of course the model lacks much accuracy but once in a while it gets something right. WX/PT

Why wouildn't I? I think we'll notch at least 2 more this month and about 3-5 in September. We might even get to 26. But it may be more unusual heat with low humidity and not classic heatwave heat. WX/PT

19? I got my count from UOFIAMI99 and we added it up to 17. If it's 19, 24 90+ days for the season should be no problem. I was just away on Cape Cod for about 11 days. I think we'll flirt with 90 probably upper 80s this weekend, but I think we'll get heat from the 27th or 28th on and into September. WX/PT

I am counting 17 90+ days so far for Central Park this season and I think they're going end up with at least 21. None this week as near to below normal temperatures continue. It looks as though the surface winds will be more light variable or southerly at first as heat and humidity try to rebuild late next weekend into the following week so 90+ is unlikely at first. But later in the month the ensembles have come around to a warmer look over the last few run cycles so I do think eventually the Park will see 4-7 more days of 90+ weather perhaps including another heatwave. WX/PT