Wxoutlooksblog

I also do not understand why everyone's focus has turned to mid March which is more than a month away. We are following ensemble and operational model products which are not fool-proof and sometimes in error. The one constant about the weather is that it's always changing. WX/PT

Why do you say that? It is not unusual for us to get some mild weather in February and very common for us to get warmth prior to late season snowstorms. WX/PT

If it's going to be this fast and weak it's a much smaller scale storm. But I think the Euro is probably too fast at this point. We'll see. WX/PT

UKIE is erratic and probably developing this storm too far north and east, actually the same wrong solution it kept coming up with last time. We'll see if it doesn't change back closer to what it looked like last night in a day or two. WX/PT

Western Ridge flattens out on the Euro so it's progressive and instead it has two storms neither of which will nail us. But these maps are going to change. This is not the final solution. Flattening of the ridge out west too quickly probably an error. WX/PT

If the western ridge stays back and allows this storm to develop and come up the coast you'd almost automatically have a higher ceiling than with the last one because there is no kicker. There is no clipper or notable northern stream system moving in right behind this. It can take its sweet time. As long as that ridge out west stays put. WX/PT

The only model I'm looking at that hasn't jumped way west with the storm is the GEFS. And the GEFS did jump the opposite way, to the east, but not really that much. We know the models will shift around some more and we know from extremely recent history that the first models to lock in the correct track will be the European and the Canadian models. WX/PT

Is this is going to develop and come up the coast the GFS will be the last to show it, the Euro or CMC probably the first. WX/PT

And now this is coming back. Just because the models drop a storm for a day or two doesn't mean they're not going to come back. The mistake was progressing the western ridge eastward too quickly. WX/PT

I have a feeling we might be getting a little more precipitation than we're expecting or planning on from this relatively weak coastal low later today (not much later) into Tuesday and it will probably fall in a variety of precip-types. WX/PT

On the maps that came out this afternoon it was mostly good. The European was marginal at the peak of the storm, GFS good. But it's way too early to draw any conclusions. WX/PT

Looking just about perfect. The biggest risk is that this is so far in advance of the time-frame, too much can happen to mess it up. We know these maps are going to change though we might not want them to. WX/PT

Yes I am. WX/PT

This may end up looking like the Euro. WX/PT

I'm loving the Feb 13-14 potential. There is great antecedent cold HP we just need to lock it in and it's very close to happening. It would not take a big shift to bury many locations along and even east of I-95. WX/PT

Yes I am. That's why amounts are so much less northwest of NYC. WX/PT

I wouldn't quite agree. There is more variability in all the models however the Euro had consistently indicated this storm would affect us while other models most notably the GFS did not. On one run the NAM was a complete miss. The fact that one location may get 6" instead of 9" or 11" doesn't make the model erratic. It's consistently shown the track close enough with the precipitation to be consistently affecting the same areas to a slightly greater/lesser degree. I'll take it. An accurate forecast can be made by it. The GFS? No. Add to that the fact that with a storm like this on the western side amounts drop off sharply. You got to take that into account. It's not the model, it's the nature of this kind of a storm. WX/PT

My morning update. I may need to lower southern New Jersey amounts pending 18Z and 00Z runs and observations/radar. Yes it's going to move to 100 miles e-se of Cape Cod per latest Euro. Moving into nowcasting mode. WX/PT For the NYC Metro Region, the National Weather Service has upgraded our Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning valid through Saturday. It will snow off and on all day today leaving a dusting to an inch of snow in spots as an arctic front passes southeastward across the region squeezing out the moisture in the atmosphere. Behind that front brutally cold north northeasterly winds will increase driving temperatures downward into the upper teens and lower 20s tonight. Meanwhile our storm is taking shape off the Florida coast as I write. It will move northward to offshore of the Carolinas tonight and from there northeastward to near Cape Cod by tomorrow afternoon. The main event gets underway tonight between 7-10PM as snow will overspread our area from south to north. It will be light at first but heavier snow bands will move into the region during the early morning hours Saturday dropping 1-2"/hour over the city and western LI and 2-4"/hour over Suffolk County where a Blizzard Warning is in effect. Winds will gust to near 60MPH during the storm causing white-outs and near blizzard conditions with blowing and drifting of snow and near zero visibilities especially over eastern LI and southeastern Ct. Thundersnow possible. Snow should taper off and end around 3-5PM Saturday. Amounts expected--NW New Jersey 3-6", Just NW of NYC and interior southern NJ including Rockland and Westchester oounties 4-8", NYC five boroughs 7-11", Western LI/Nassau western coastal CT 8-14", Southern Coastal New Jersey and western Suffolk Cty 12-18", The Twin Forks/East End of LI and Southeastern Ct 16-22". If you're thinking of escaping to Boston 18-24" there. Stay Safe!!

It's not. The models do not typically trend in one direction in "all together now" fashion and then it's over. They do go back and forth. This is how it is every major winter storm or most. One model run from one model two days before the storm is not a clincher or "cancels" the storm. There will be more changes on all of the models tomorrow. WX/PT

Ok at 72 hours it is a tad bit east of where it was last run. But it's not by that much and certainly within the realm of possibility that this ticks back west towards the coast tomorrow. WX/PT

Euro is already more tucked. WX/PT

I totally agree with this. At least in most cases. WX/PT

There is no trend. You had about 4 consecutive maybe 5 consecutive runs of 20"+ snows in NYC, now one run of the Euro giving 6-10" still a very big snowfall by NYC standards. This can easily switch back. When you're comparing the Euro to the GFS you're comparing apples to oranges not apples to apples. There is no trend established yet and these models are not interacting with each other. WX/PT

The kicker is not going to allow this system to jackpot for inland areas north and west of NYC. It's also preventing the coast from going over to rain. WX/PT