Wxoutlooksblog
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My thinking is that the track will probably end up a bit south and east of ideal. That said, again southern NJ and eastern Long Island could jackpot with 6-10" in a few spots but more likely 3-8" closer to NYC. Less north/west more south/east. If the ECMWF ends up being or trending more towards the UKMET, I'll keep the idea of a repeat of Monday's near miss in the back of my mind. WX/PT
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I think the reason is that all of the models including the ECMWF have been shaky this season. 5 or 6 years ago, even 3 years ago with the Euro maps we see today there's be far more excitement because the European seemed to be verifying a little better. Also, we're still not in an ideal pattern for east coast storms, the kind that dump all along I-95 and coastal areas. We'll see if we're able to change the tide this Thursday-Friday. WX/PT
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Consistent with the pattern, odds are the track of this is either good for snow or again further south and east. WX/PT
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If you do not have a flake by now on Long Island, you're probably unlikely to see them unless you get a flurry on the backside of this. Dry air is building in and it would appear the leading area of snow is beginning to be suppressed to the e-se. WX/PT
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I had that 10-15 minutes ago. WX/PT
