Wxoutlooksblog

Certainly. The latest maps have the appearance of one of the hottest summers of all time in this area. I'm not sure we can verify all the guidance, but if we do, we have a shot at the top 5 hottest summers. WX/PT

I'm totally on board for a hot week ahead. I'm also on board for numerous showers/storms today and tonight and most notably the likelihood of a line of storms busting through during the early morning hours Monday and a severe threat during the late afternoon and evening hours Monday with another storm possible Monday night. What I am questioning is the daytime heating hours on Monday. Several of models keep most of the action to our north and west over that time. It that is true temperatures could over-perform on Monday. While the old NAM has winds too southerly to allow that to mean much, the 3K has more westerly wind component along with the RGEM. In other words, upper 80s to perhaps 90 might not be out of the question for Monday prior to the severe threat later in the day and evening. The hottest days of the week as of now look to me to be Wednesday & Thursday. Central Park should pick up 4-5 more 90+ days this week bringing the monthly total to 8 or 9. WX/PT

Again, I think the models continue to overdo rainfall. Otherwise, I had started out with a prediction of 7 90+ days this month at Central Park and am now thinking we just might have a shot at their getting 8-10. WX/PT

IMO the rain is overdone on every model. We've seen them do this time over time recently. WX/PT

I agree with this. NYC's Central Park probably will not reach 90 this afternoon but IMO there is a 30-40% chance they do reach it. WX/PT

Unlikely but possible. I'd rank it a 30% chance. WX/PT

This front and its associated showers/storms never likely to ever get here. WX/PT

Interesting, all the cool fresh air masses and cold fronts are gradually washing out as they move se out of Canada. WX/PT

For most of the immediate NYC Metro Region those chances have been very low, most areas remaining dry. I suspect that that tendency will continue for a while. The models are overdoing moisture. WX/PT

I generally agree. The GFS and even the ensembles have been all over the place one run cooler one run hotter back and forth and continue to be. The Euro has been more consistent and accurate. I think this weekend will be increasingly muggy leading into some hot weather next week and that the first heatwave for NYC probably occurs next week. WX/PT

It depends on exactly how far westward it builds, and what exact position the ridge is in. It can push storms into the coast over the southeastern states or allow them to move up the coast or even force them (less likely) into the Gulf of Mexico. Or if the ridge is too strong, it can even hinder the development of tropical systems. Rules do not usually work in the world of weather because there are so many factors. La Nina ridge usually favors an active Atlantic tropical season but there are exceptions. WX/PT

I don't know about that. September maybe. But the blocking doesn't have to completely end in order for us to get a heatwave here. 2012 had a number of heatwaves with blocking. It is where exactly the weather systems are that set up the block and where we are within the jet stream flow at the time. There is more than one way to skin a cat and now the 18Z GEFS has the ridges together as one. The timing is getting better. We're still in the stage of 1-2 day surges of heat. What's next? We do not know. WX/PT

I have thought that the GFS is rushing it. I think we are still at this time prime for the 1-2 day surges maybe 3 in the 7/16-7/18 time-frame of the western ridge. I think WAR or a merger between WAR and the western ridge would more likely give us a prolonged heatwave particularly after 7/22. WX/PT

Another way of looking at it. We can continue to have extreme blocking but if the location of the blocking weather systems shifts to the east, we could end up in the western heat ridge for days and days with heatwaves. In other words, our location within the flow changes. So, there is really more than one way we can establish extended heat around here. WX/PT

I really prefer the ECMWF depiction of W.A.R. building westward over the GFS extending the western ridge northeastward. The GFS has been doing what it's going for a long time and it's been wrong time after time. Note the western ridge actually retrogrades a little bit too. It makes far more sense. There's still a little bit of blocking left here so I do not yet think we're into a heatwave at this point just another day or two. I think heatwave potential increases after the 20th or 21st. WX/PT

And here it goes, transition time: WX/PT

I don't know if this is going to happen, nobody does. But, it is easier and easier to visualize how it might happen. And you start out with a frontal system getting stuck on or just west of the eastern seaboard around July 16/17 time-frame. Western Atlantic Ridge retrograding and eventually you come around to this look and we're talking about weather that is the opposite of what the last two days were like. Could be a wet and stormy transition to more sustained heat and humidity. WX/PT

I think maybe I do actually. I do not know exact timing. But given the computer model output of the last few days it seems to me that the pattern is trying very hard to change. The blocking has to decrease to allow that to happen and something has to trigger the blocking to break down. And I can now see several ways that it might occur. The maps go back and forth and I think the GFS frankly is in a bit of a rush trying to change the pattern, it might be slower and later on. But the GEFS has been trending warmer with less blocking for the passed several runs and the EPS towards the end of its runs has begun trending that way as well. There is uncertainty and the blocking could return quickly. But if we're in a different spot in the flow and the blocking returns with our being under WAR, it's a whole new ballgame. And that's how we'd get a very long duration heatwave. WX/PT

Why do you say this? It's July 4th. We could get a ten day heatwave from July 24th to August 3rd and nobody would remember that we hadn't had a heatwave yet at this point. WX/PT

There's a chance but I wouldn't bet on it. WX/PT

Dew points seem to be dropping slowly from west to east. I think the t-storm threat is primarily north and east. If the cirrus were to thin out Central Park could still have an outside shot at 90 today. I think they also have an outside shot Tuesday ahead of the next cold front and t-storm threat. WX/PT

I think some locations from NYC south and west will hit 90 on the 7th or 8th. It will depend on the coverage of storms with the warm front then cold front. I think there are more *possible* 90 degree days than initially meets the eye. WX/PT

Just wait until we get that ridge over us in August. WX/PT

Almost all of the models are timing the front for Saturday mid-day. Tomorrow night kind of a pre-frontal trough will most likely ignite storms. The question being will there be enough sun to lift the temperatures to hot levels Saturday before the storms pop back up along the front as it passes to our south. WX/PT

It probably is not a question of "if" but a question of "when". Now the cracked up GFS which at this point has ZERO support (someday it will be right, maybe) is saying goodbye to the blocking around July 10th as it builds the ridge out west eastward over and around what was originally a cool Canadian HP on July 8th. If you cancel the blocking this is actually a logical outcome and transition. The question being is it real? The answer at this point in time is "probably not". We'll keep an eye on the ensembles for any developing support of this idea but frankly I doubt we'll see it this early. Later on? There's a better chance IMO. WX/PT