Wxoutlooksblog

GFS has July 4h weekend hazy hot and humid but from what we've seen the last two weeks that means about as much as the tooth fairy. WX/PT

I could see this kind of weather (maybe not quite this extreme) happening in several episodes over the next 2-3 weeks. There are some indications we might heat up a little at some point over the July 4th holiday weekend time-frame but most of the time the ridge is out west and we have cool high pressure systems moving e-se from central Canada and a stalled out frontal boundary setting up just offshore with waves of low pressure developing along it. We may squeeze in a day or two of warmer more summer-like conditions here and there but at the moment I'm not seeing any heatwaves prior to the second or third week of July. If this pattern were not to change, we could go the whole summer without a heatwave. I do not think that will happen but you never know. WX/PT

This picture has no heat. Maybe raw easterly winds, lots of clouds and dare I say rain. But it's the GFS which has been a joke so maybe these maps are a joke too. Plenty of heat out west. WX/PT

Most of the very latest guidance is downplaying heat for next week. The tri-state region is on the very outskirts of the ridge with frequent rounds of storms. Given ensemble trends and extrapolating forward the ridge seems more and more at least for the first half of this summer to be anchoring itself out west. Generally, this set up would usually favor a cooler 2014 type summer. But given the Euro seasonal forecast, maybe we here in the northeast are looking at primarily a second half summer from the second or third week of July on. WX/PT

Tonight with the exception of the CMC, the models so far are heating up. It's kind of a tug of war between the Euro and the GFS which has by running ridiculously hot two runs in a row defied the Euro. The Euro idea of either a big cut-off dropping south from eastern Canada and chilling us until almost the end of June vs. the GFS idea of recurring heat. Up until tonight the ECMWF camp was gaining momentum and traction but the cooler camp seems to have hit a little hiccup in that the GFS which caved to the coolness last night has reverted back to heat for two consecutive runs. Also the GEFS is heating up a bit. If tonight's Euro shows any signs of caving to the GFS, it will be kind of a coup. I wouldn't bet on it, however. WX/PT

Major changes continue on the all the models particularly the GFS which had us in chilly weather June 18th-19th and now we're mid-upper 80s if not 90. Map features adjusting by anywhere from 300 miles to 1500 miles a good argument to pay no attention. WX/PT

The first heatwave this summer IMO could wait until mid July and we could still end up with over 20 90+ days. In the current pattern we'd only likely get a day or two of heat at the most during June and much of the latest guidance isn't even particularly favorable about that. But I do think we'll probably squeeze out a day or two of 90 in June. But a heatwave before the second week of July at this point just doesn't seem very likely. Of course things can change and the maps (ensembles and operationals) have been changing erratically and will probably continue to do so. WX/PT

The models are definitely in a state of flux and I suspect large scale changes will continue to occur over the next several days. The difference in heights on the west coast from model to model is significant and has an impact on what happens in the east. I suspect a piece of the big heat ridge will break off and move east then there'll be a cold front then another piece breaks off and moves east and so on until we get into a little more sustained heat during July. WX/PT

I do not know if we're yet getting an accurate idea as exactly how this summer will turn out. Just a tiny shift in the position of the heat ridge and the blocking will make a world of difference particularly in terms of number of 90+ days in the cities of the northeast. And the thunderstorm activity can also make a huge difference since it has the potential to be extremely active with lots of severe weather in our area. If we get stuck under a ring of fire the lower levels can only warm so much before t-storm activity caps temperatures in the upper 80s. Depending on exactly where that active zone sets up can be the difference between 30 90+ degree days and 10. WX/PT

Sometime between June 14th-18th it's looking as though it's going to get to be at least quite warm, maybe hot. But it appears there'll be a very active ROF at the leading of this hot air mass and any kind of wave of low pressure development or stronger upper air disturbance moving over and down around the big ridge can delay the eastward progression of the heat ridge. WX/PT

This is fantasy range for the GFS but it may worth noting that this heat was gone on 3 out of the last 4 runs of the model. Let's wait a few more days before believing this kind of thing. If it's right, we will have 90+ days during the middle of June. WX/PT

NYC can still have a very hot summer even without ANY 90 degree days in June. Two cases in point, 1955, and 1977. WX/PT

This weekend looks like a scorcher but it is interesting to note the differences in temperature on the 00Z 5/19 NAM FOUS as of 12Z Saturday with PHL being the hottest BTV the second hottest, then ALB, then LGA with BOS being the coolest. WX/PT

Most of tonight's computer guidance appears to be coming a tad bit warmer than at 12Z. May 20th-22nd will depend on the exact position of the Bermuda high but barring any b-door front it looks very warm to perhaps hot. And most of the models earlier indicated more very warn to possibly hot weather towards the last week of the month. WX/PT

Don't give up on the heat! A number of very hot summers in NYC have been slow to start. Some of them include 1961, 1966, 1983, 1995, 1999, and 2005. A few of these were also La Nina summers. There's some hint of much warmer weather during the May 21st-May 23rd time-frame. WX/PT

It's a very bad pattern. I think we'll hit 70 late this week, maybe even 75 or 78 but after next weekend, we're going to be below normal temps and near normal precip for a while IMO. I don't think Central Park is going to get to 80 this month. Though we should see much more warmth possibly heat starting around mid or late May. WX/PT

NYC might get close to 80 degrees on Thursday but I think probably tops out around 78 or 79. But the two factors that could hold temperatures lower are cloudcover and the winds being too southerly off of the still relatively cool ocean waters south of LI. Tomorrow NYC should get to 76 or 77. I like the model trends overnight some subtle hints of the jet stream relaxing in the fantasy range. It's good to see the storm track begin to shift further north even by just a little bit. WX/PT

I doubt it will look like this when we get closer in time, but this is what warmth looks like. Notice the confluence over the northeastern U.S. and se Canada is gone. Again, do not be surprised when the next run of the GFS looks completely different. WX/PT

In New Jersey near Philadelphia maybe. In NYC that kind of outcome is unlikely. There's a chance that the warmest day of the week in NYC would be Tuesday. On Thursday the front separating the warmer air from cooler maritime air mass will be close by. WX/PT

First of all, you have to slow things down. The jet is super-charged with one piece of energy after another moving across the CONUS from the west coast to the east coast. There is no room or time for a high pressure center to sit and pump warm humid air northeastward. There is no Bermuda High. Everything is moving along from west to east. If this continued it would probably yield a cooler and wetter than average summer. But it's unlikely it will continue since this kind of pattern often does occur in April. As we get into May look for the westeriies to begin to retreat northward and the pattern to gradually relax. It might take until the end of May or the beginning of June. I hope not. WX/PT

I am skeptical. There is too much energy in the upper atmosphere to allow it with little if any sustained heat source. There will be lots of showers and thunderstorms in the warmer air for any brief period of time we're in it. Lots of cold air aloft. The atmosphere will destabilize quickly with any daytime heating. We might eke out a 78 one day. WX/PT

It's according to the dynamics. When intensity drops off it becomes more rain/sleet than snow and vica versa.. WX/PT

This storm is/was (at least for coastal locations) all according to where the better dynamics and heaviest snowfall lasted the longest. Generally like almost every storm system this season, it has moved too fast and most of the intensity has slipped eastward too quickly for coastal sections. Most of the remainder is either non-accumulating wet snow and then eventually just plain drizzle and fog. The next chance is Saturday and after than perhaps March 23rd-24th. WX/PT

Nam 3Km going with a pasting followed by lighter snow possibly a mix. I'm with that idea, in the 2-5" range primarily on grassy surfaces but not exclusively on grassy surfaces. WX/PT

The wind will be over for now before you know it and it will be time to start focusing in on the potential winter storm at the end of this work week. Almost all of the models have trended towards a more southern track with a secondary coastal low becoming the primary and locking in the cold air. First the mild temperatures Monday Tuesday and Wednesday. WX/PT