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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    My sense is it does a good job of identifying banding, dry air etc, but best used within 24 hours. Looks to me like the coastal gets going sooner which is why totals are so high, so I don't necessarily buy that. But precip with the first part of the storm crossing the mountains is better than other models so that is encouraging
  2. olafminesaw
    GFS slows the bleeding a bit
  3. olafminesaw
    Still has the late phase but much more explosive. Could be epic for the tidewater, triad to triangle in the battle zone
  4. olafminesaw
    Hmmm...
  5. olafminesaw
    I feel this is underdone for Raleigh, where even if mostly sleet, over an inch seems likely
  6. olafminesaw
    Don't love the trend towards late development, meaning pretty dry West of Durham
  7. olafminesaw
  8. olafminesaw
    Encouraging to see temps in the mid 20s. Should stave off the *drip drip. Rates may be low to start with dry air/poor dynamics.
  9. olafminesaw
    We do tend to ignore the jet stream impact, which the models tend to underestimate as well. If we can get the storm to slow down a bit we would go from unfavorable jet dynamics as the GFS depicts (right side of the jet streak), to neutral/favorable.
  10. olafminesaw
    The big amped up solution we were seeing all the way up until yesterday afternoon would have cut all but the high elevations out of the possibility of significant snow. Unless we continue a significant trend towards even less phasing/faster, the majority of the subforum would certainly prefer the strung out solution. The big double digit snow totals for western NC through the I85 corridor was always going to be a thread the needle/low probability outcome anyway.
  11. olafminesaw
  12. olafminesaw
    Looks a little more north to me, but I don't have maps for NC
  13. olafminesaw
    It seems to always be playing catch-up. For us in the triad QPF is the big question now as it seems more likely than not we will get mostly snow (although never count out the warm nose.). Usually the Euro over does it, so I'm guessing .5-1"
  14. olafminesaw
    Really close to the 2018 totals map
  15. olafminesaw
    I believe the 18z Canadian was also colder
  16. olafminesaw
    Yeah and I think that temperature gradient from the wedge is just going to enhance precip rates, especially wherever that sleet/snow line is
  17. olafminesaw
  18. olafminesaw
  19. olafminesaw
  20. olafminesaw
    GEFS trending colder at the surface and aloft
  21. olafminesaw
    Canadian is all over the place, makes it difficult to take stock in
  22. olafminesaw
  23. olafminesaw
    I nominate @NorthHillsWx to make a storm thread. I feel like this is your storm
  24. olafminesaw
    Something to watch, the warm nose currently isn't super strong, which kinda makes sense due to the favorable storm track. Dynamic cooling may help flip some areas along the changeover line back to snow when heavier rates/better dynamics set up. Need to watch the wraparound for a changeover as well
  25. olafminesaw
    Icy 6z Canadian, a bit warmer/more amped than other guidance
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