olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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Yup
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Interesting how they cluster in a line from Texas to South Carolina
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It would seem a line of rain/snow showers could make it over the mountains tommorow midday/afternoon, and perhaps a second wave in the evening. Pretty good agreement from the hires models, but probably too warm for anything that does come through to stick. But I know how stingy the mountains are, so probably only light precip, if that.
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I think it's mainly driven by watching the NAM nail us run after run. Did a lot to raise expectations. The reality is this has looked like a 1-3" event with some upside potential since Tuesday morning
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Radar is starting to fill the dry slot (albeit slowly). I think we can definitely pull off 1-2", 3" if the costal component gets going early enough
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The wetter HRRR and RGEM have solid precip in the Triad by 12, while the NAM holds back for a few more hours. We shall see which is right, although nothing building on radar just yet
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Good tends on the HRRR in terms of QPF for N and W, FWIW
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Yeah, definitely seems to align with models trending towards less moisture pushing North. It should help us though if a good band does move through early on.
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Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
olafminesaw replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
And the 12z NAM confirms this -
Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
olafminesaw replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
Yeah, gotta wait for the coastal to take over to get decent rates unfortunately, but at that point it may be pulling away -
Radar starting to blossom nicely in central TN
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Yeah, the NAM twins are not really much different, does more to confirm 2-4" is quite attainable
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The HRRR is mostly useless outside 12 hrs. Even then it runs warm.
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The advisory says 1-3", but my point forecast is only has a 50% chance of precip. Kinda odd.
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Euro takes a step North
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The HRW models all came north from 0z
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Yeah, better to flip to sleet for a while and get good rates than be fringed. Obviously down towards SC is a different story.
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Looking at soundings, the NAM sugguests sleet could threaten to push as far north as the Triad
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The NAM looks a touch North and a touch slower to bring the precip at hr 24
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For the SREF, I would look at QPF as well, ad it tends to run quite warm .5" QPF for Greensboro
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We have the warm nose to harp on instead (for good reason)
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This has a feel like much like the best of the Hampton Roads storms I've experienced, just further south with the strong high, and fed by the robust southern stream that had been featured all winter. All that to say, a dynamic developing system with cold air over the top goes a long way.
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My call for Greensboro: <1" 25% 1-3" 50% 4"+ 25%
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RAH hasn't updated snow maps since 4 pm yesterday. It will be interesting to see how conservative they will be
