Typhoon Tip

GFS ... the ensemble mean appears to contain some members that are down into the 970 to 975 mb level. But, since the mean is also 984 and positioned slightly east of the operational, I'd say the places the operational run somewhere mid-grade when comparing to the members. For the storm mongers .. the spread is smeared slightly west so that's something to watch -

Yeah and I mean it could still detonate a deep nuke but the mid levels forcing the rising motion of the air would have to be deeper in latitude and approaching more from the SW/SSW.. Therein we get into the W-E progressivity vibe in the atmosphere and this initially an open wave coming through the Lakes that deepens and 'fake' closes off but gliding over the top of the still seasonally expanded subtropical ridging exerting from S...

Lol! Spent all morning trying to reach folks with this message in War and Peace and well... sometimes simpler is better

I was talking to Don about this last week - I think - ...about how 'less relevant' the specific comparison is to 2012 or other notable nadir years, vs the general distinction - which is more indicative of the status. It's a logic principle... but, it's important for conveying to a public hell-bent on using any means plausible to bend/rationalize this into being something else. Being a little sarcastic there/here ... But, the point I was making then - as is illustrated above - is that it is less important that 2019 did not absolutely bottom out below 2012, as much as it is important that it fits snugly along a trend line that is going to hell ... This record above, is just as achieving in paving that course -

I'm not sure I have a problem with this ending up being a middling low that passes inland. Perhaps folks are rusty? - we need this seasonal "primer" to lube up the gears of obviousness again ( for when this sort of eval has got a chance to mean anything worth while haha). But all tech rhetoric aside? There's really no cold air in place. Cold air below 700 mb is a damming... and, it supplies a focused frontal slope around the traditional interface axis oh... circa southern NJ to ACK ... If there is a strong low level thickness packing along that land cold air to warm oceanic interface, than as the Q-G forcing encroaches from the digging trough, the excited inflow then incurs upon that elevated slope, and it makes UVM go nuts - because of the conversion of latent heat to heat of condensation adding lift...yadda yadda yadda the low at the surface tends to organize under that UVM "chimney" etc etc.. But none of that can happen here/given what's up in the models. So, the low can move a bit more non-traditionally along an axis that is more directive of what is happening purely at mid levels -

In any case ... this NAM -focused speculation and analysis is intriguing, but as some of these more recent poster's are exposing/hinting toward ... there is a velocity contamination/bias in the general circulation theme that hasn't really gone away - I'm wondering if a NAM tucked in and slower deep layer evolution really fits here. The NAM solution(s) are either A, onto some physical means to compensate for that W-E smearing of a speed rich field, or, B, is not conserving that, which is empirically and modeled to be the case by the bevy of guidance. The Euro being perhaps mid way between the GFS and NAM is what it is ..but I see it's backing off on the intensity between 12z yesterday and 00z last night, as both unusual discontinuity for that particular guidance inside of D4.5, but also a signal that this is an unusual scenario and even the more sophisticated tools are less than ideally handling. The usual nature of it is that we are rich beyond the dreams of avarice with mid level mechanics, but there's really nothing but weak baroclinic gradients between BTV and Gulf Stream in the lower troposphere ( compared to typical bombogen set ups... I mean there's some, sure - ). With all that potential and not much to drill the cyclogen down to the surface, the NAM ( and to some extent all of them ...) seem to be latching onto geese farts ( thank you Weatherwiz!) and going "butterfly effect" with them. The NAM's variation on this is to take either a convective fed-backed low over the deep SE, or ...if it somehow manages to evolve a hybrid TC in such short order ( dubious as an undertaking...), it uses that feature to do said drilling - which having that much DPVA and Q-G forcing ridging off the upper M/A ...it's more than happy to do so. The problem: is its surface reflection in the deep SE even real? Good question... Now cast that - Personally I feel the GFS may not be a bad way to go. I'm utterly sick to the point of throwing hands at the velocity surplus at all scales and dimensions we've been plagued with during autmns and winters ... now looking back to the late 1990s and it's increasingly the base-line character of the larger planetary circulation over this side of the hemisphere ( I haven't honestly focused on SE Eurasia and/or middle latitude Asia but I suspect it's observable there...). And these system embedded in fast flow ... it just seems the NAM, perhaps for not being a Global-scaled tool and having a finite domain space... maaaybe just allows it to 'get away' with not conserving the speed overall of the flow for complicated reasons with velocity/mass and R-wave distribution..

Yeah ...a lot of the issues with this - in the modeling I feel - is that the thickness gradients in the low levels are effectively meaningless - they are missing .. Those surface to 700 mb frontal inclinations are critical in the vertical structure of cyclogenesis' in general. Similar to why in April sometimes, a bomb on the mid range charts as suggested at 500 mb level, has a comparatively amorphous looking surface reflection - only here...we are seeing this in a surface/sourcing that is warmer. This system, as is, appears to have a ton of mid level kinematic power ... the Q-G forcing is huge... but, in the absence of crucial surface to 6km ( ~ ) frontal tapestries, the models are producing micro lows embedded inside a general region of lowering surface pressure - building without a foundation in a sloppy metaphoric sense so they don't know where to foot/focal point a low. And, because the thickness is more homogenized, these nodes like 'mimic' warm core thermodynamics. I don't believe 'warm core' is really what is going on - what is going on is ... this scenario is systemically lacking the lower tropospheric frontal components, such that most quadrants around the cyclostrophic region are the same temperature/dp layout which is something we see more typically in purer tropical/barotropic systems.

Seems clear to me the “models” already have. this particular run of this model appears to be an outlier solution fwiw. Things can change if the others come around. My guess is they’re going to have similar solutions though if not tonight theyll go back to it

What’s the source of that… I mean that could also be a troposphere fold

Just from looking at the 500 mb evolution it almost looks like -I thought - convective feedback at first and then the low gets relayed into the troughs quasi-g forcing. The other aspect is that the entire structure this thing is much slower than the global models in this run

We have yes. Point?

What does any of that and your snow experience have to do with fast flow? u seem to be taking some kind of exception to the notion of a fast flow like you don’t want it to happen ...?more than analyzing objectively/considering weather can so I’m done with this conversation.

Well .. obviously. But it’s an educated guess, One based upon classic meteorological principles combined with empirical trend analysis - the latter of which spans two decades now; and as such, both converging on a very possible predominating winter characteristic It’s hilarious… People seem to ignore and/or want to battle this concept yet the instant the hemisphere tries to cool off from the north south what’s the first thing that happens? we get a storm developing moving at ludicrous speed amid a cosmic jet - right out of the gates right out of the gates. Nice

I’m sure you do. fast flows are physically prohibitive of blocking. Unfortunately resumes aside that principal exist regardless of whether we want to believe it or not Navier-Stokes for the “wind” Ha!

It’s called fluid mechanics ... Aspects certain folk had to learn all proper like y’all

That’s kind of a problem - it’s hard to develop blocking with an antecedent fast flow

Heh. not sure it’s a good idea to allow one’s self to be wrangled into day 5 precision impact calls ... I’m inclined to think less impact given these unilateral model scenarios of the system moving at like 70 miles an hour bulk velocity… It’s a zygote circulation south of Long Island and it’s deepening as it’s passing ... at an impressive rate yes, but it’s borderline whether it’s in time to really impact southern New England. I’d say the greatest impact is the upper coast of Maine up to Nova Scotia and so forth given the present modeling tenor Heights are too high from Texas well prior being ejected out of the West, out along the gulf coast/Florida/adjacent southwest Atlantic basin. This whole amplitude is kind of like a rock skipping off a pond - spatial metaphor

Yeah...I don't think this thing has time to do much impact... Seriously hulling ass! It's deepening rate is impressive but it scoots from ACK to east of D.E.M in like 5 hours - ... by the time the cyclostrophic field turns around proper-like, it's already been sunny and over with.. And by the way, get used to speed contamination ...

It's all tedious really ... I mean, not to dissuade others from keeping track. But, this level of detail seeking ... ( not to mention if they are veracious - we are always finding out that a clad data set is found to be flawed, passe' ) it's all stuff that seems more appropriate to those stationed out upon a slab of faux Terra Firma, just slightly too big to actually be defined as a mere ice-floe, with portable sat-dishes and a battery, jerry-rigged to send current in AC to a lap-top. They're scrambling to get one last empirical data set entered before their scheduled hilo's arrive and whisks them away before the the PV's cryo hell engulfs the setting. These kind particulars will resonate to those walking sectors of society - and of course are important for discrete sciences back in labs and University desks and white-boards and what have you. We in here, we're internet junkies finding free publications of their findings, to repackage surrounding our own hypothesis - okay, but for what? Here's a thought: There's a tendency toward a microcosm of what goes on out there, just colored differently when we play a hedging game with decimals, in here. The reality is that we are obsessing over serrated elevated points and dips along a curve that's descending clearly to hell - no matter how we cut it up and look at it. The fact that we do, strikes me as a kind of bargaining tact. It's same shit that is happening out there is society overall. How? Those that are finally coming out of the auto-pilot, knee-jerk denial stat and are accepting that there is a problem, there is a tendency to fall-back rely upon this invented notion, that it is somehow "unclear that Human's are the cause," .. Um, no. That's bargaining. It's just taking on a different form/color. I don't want to say the word appropriate, because that sounds stilted, and almost toeing the line, and not questioning authority and ...well, for better or worse, I'm too maverick at the core to do that, either. However, keeping it 100,000 mile perspectives, is the appropriate conclusion nonetheless. Because, delineating lost ice as less than 2012 given the reality, absolutely should not allay the concerns, certainly not the gravitas ( that is real ) of the problem of a climate change that is highly probably caused by anthropogenic forcing ... Not even by decimal amounts of fear for that matter. I don't wanna be out of line? I just would hope there is not a "bargaining" thing going on here, where one might even be less aware they're doing it. It's where if 2019's data is less than 2012 that somehow, in some deeper way enters a plausible justification for "phew, that was close" - I mean... close to what? Irrelevant ... It's not stopping an inevitability to 'make sure' 2019 is decimals less. ha ha. Ultimately it doesn't matter... Fact of the matter is, for all the work that's being published to this site's social media depot, I could not locate one general populate out among the provincials to the bourgeoisie, in a random sampling, that [most likely] even knows it exists. Ha ha. It's kind of funny - doing endlessly, something, that makes no difference. Hm. Kinda flirts with the old insanity definition, huh. But, we engage in this shit because we are hobbyists, and well.. concomitantly we have an interests. And that's fine, too -

Heh. That was in deference to the thing later in the week

Coastal storm is pedestrian ... The bigger eye -pop there is the mammoth Rosby roll-out and the sweeping chinook warm up across everywhere and including Michigan to Maine and points south, D7 -10 Which btw, that look and the U.S. ensembles all did an about face on the previous tele signaled and explain why tele -reliance in transition season is at times just as back-stabbing as the operational runs. We'll see if this has legs ...or if we head right back. I'm not totally sure I buy it? That Hagibis is a large influx - I'm just wondering if this expanded H-cell business might absorb that too. Just think, we keep this up and maybe no teleconnectors will be worth a shit at any time of the year

Can you imagine the ballz on this guy ... That bucket's gotta be some kind of prorated to get those boulders that high. No amount of money -

Mm... missing the point as usual I see. Cooking cutting SNE for misery while everyone else basks in relative utopia is not the same thing as autumn typology. We are getting screwed period. Enjoy -

That is really cool .. Look at the arc in the central/eastern Atlantic.. .That is the aftermath/turbulent mixing result of Lorenzo ...

Mm ... I'd argue that's the new paradigm actually.. .regardless of ENSO. There is evidence of expanded Hadley cell over the extra-seasonal time spans and it's increasing said gradient regardless - I'm sure it's possible it won't be that way ALL the time, but.. the balance of the rest state is one featuring enhanced subtropical to Ferral latitude isohypsotic slope. Which again... folks may very well observe ENSO as less coupled to the atmosphere in present eras moving foward because of that, for SD events that fall below a certain magnitude. I keep pointing this out... but, few seem to acknowledge it before resuming the same mantra and reliance. But last year ... it took until mid to late February ( as NCEP noted ) for the atmosphere to demonstrate any response/coupling to the state of the NINO fields. It's one of the reasons so may forecasts busted from the private/novice sector - because those linear reliance' are all f'ed up now; the correlations don't work as well, when they are related to the previous 100 years, when the last 20 years of which are hockey-sticking. This isn't just superficially plausible jargon - it's physically sound and being noted by agencies. But, if we want to just blink twice like robots stuck in 'does not compute' feed-back loop and fall right back into that +5/-5 ENSO stuff... okay. It's just that after all, this season outlook stuff is speculative - it's nice for the sake of cogency in my mind if folks actually begin to acknowledge this possibility. Even if we want to say, I am not including for now but it is possible - something. I think there is nothing wrong with forecasting SSTs mimicking a weak warm signal, while the atmosphere behaves like a La Nada? ... I guess we'll let the chips fall where they may... But, that means that other factors ( like the EPO/AO/NAO arc) may be more representative. It's fascinating stuff -