Typhoon Tip

Well... ur not far off. I've been discussing this at length in various threads around the weather -related social media, that the Hadley Cell ( semi permanent global feature the girdles the globe to approximately 30 N and S of Equator in previous decades prior to 2000 ) has been notably and empirically expanding, and is causing storm tracks to shit N ( among other aspects ..) This is papered and peer reviewed assessment work - it's not just me conjecturing from a relative position of weather education and speculation arts - which admittedly, I'm talented in that capacity. Hahaha. Seriously, part of the Hadely Cell expansion is that it's boundary with the mid latitudes is not readily identifiable.. as in, aligning along some particular isohypses. It's determined fluid mechanically and thermodynamic from location to location. One possible clue is that the flow inside the Hadley tends to take on more easterly component. But overall, the boundaries are blurred and are nebulous... It's one of those deals where one would have difficulty making determination from within, but looking at the hemisphere as a whole lends more insights. It's causing gradient and middle tropospheric winds to be anomalously sloped and fast, respectively of those two metrics. It's causing embedded event morphologies.. such as shearing and cyclonic translation speeds. Unclear whether those effect precipitation totals ( and none of that pertains specifically to ptype in winters in case, either ). Knowing what all that means... the "warm blobs" in the Pacific are - quite intuitively - a partial result of HC expansion into the lower middle latitudes, as this would impose greater moments of lowering SS stressing and "pooling" would be seem concomitant. In fairness, that's intuitive - I have a raft of papers/links .. it may be stated in one of those. It also may be evidentiary in how/why ENSO's forcing on the atmosphere is becoming less coherent, year to year. Last winter ... NCEP noted that it took almost until mid February before the atmosphere demonstrated that it was really coupled(ing) up with the ENSO and actually reflecting that the ENSO was influencing. That's pretty much spring beneath the 35th parallel for the N.H already. This left very little time for ENSO to mean much to more mid latitude winter, and it probably ultimately didn't. ( yet, folks are cobbling together all these expectations of modestly warm ENSO now mmm good luck, we'll see). Going back further, the historically warm EL Nino from several years back, was also notably less demonstratively impacting known focus regions around the World,... relative to what previous moderate to strong warm ENSO events appeared causally link-able in priors. ...etc...

I've mentioned this several times ... since last spring actually, how we've been dealing with odd ( at times eerie ) tendency for the models to establish hardened trends .. even seemingly footed in global indicators thus offering credence, only to be dealt reverses, with frustrating frequency. Personally I think it's a model artifact of Global Warming; the changing circulation perhaps exposes that these models have 'performance norms' that break down in different eddy circumstances previously unknown, because these broader scaled scaffolds were stable comparing previous decades and now they are in flux. But that's of course speculative... Point is, we are still dealing with that in my estimation. I keep seeing this happening, more so than I remember in the 1990 to 2005-10 era, where model "pattern error" ( sort of a different metric to event level detail ) might be increasing. Again speculative... The Euro EPS flip flopping like that smacks of this though.

Keep in mind ... PDO means Pacific "Decade" Oscillation. These vicissitudes in the SST layouts will come and go, usually per local time scaled sea-surface stressing events. But they are as that suggest, ephemeral. They offer the jagged ups and down along the longer time-scaled curves, the typical behavior of any of these statistical inference efforts in nature. By conceptual understanding of what that means, there can be transient spans that may not represent the actual PDO. Right now the longer, 'weightier' curve shows that the index has been positive since the year 2015 or so, as I'm sure someone's pointed out .. Some of the months spanning 2018.. mm, the index is not exactly overbearingly positive, with many monthly values within mere decimals of 0, with a couple of blips in there where the index fell minutely negative ( < 0 ). I'm having difficulty finding the exact numbers for 2019 ( to date ), but multiple sources match one another and indicate the curve is sloping presently toward neutral ( 0 ), whether it is actually there yet. In any case, PDO correlation against present and -though-to-be correlated patterns, would need to be tested at relative PDO strengths. In most scientific statistics, by definition, when a curve approaches 0, that usually infer "N/S" ( no skill ) which mean equal probabilities.

Not that anyone does or should care at this particular moment… But the new Nam tries to whiff the whole area except for Maine

It ultimately doesn’t matter of course… It’s just highly unusual for somebody that young - frustrating and boundlessly sad

Yes I recall meeting him at one. do we know what took his life? it’s always arresting when mortality rings the forum’s doorbell

Uh, "yes even" You'd be a sociopath if you altered peoples genetic construct without complete transparency and mutual concurrence ... I mean, this is silly at this point.

I wouldn't trust those products from the GFS model... Certainly highly suspect, as it has genetic linear for having bad planetary boundary layer ( lowest level ) thermal handling in multiple types of air masses. Plus, it's grid isn't really the best resolution for picking up low level cold layers on top of the former issues with confidence; neither lends to trusting it.

Holy hell ... there's some ...shall we say, eccentric contributions over in that climate forum.

Wow ...so ur kinda sorta out there, huh Not me... no one f's with my DNA thank you. I think you'll find that is the consistent position among most human beings whom are proposition with the idea of having their innate sense of wonder chromosomely castrated. Yeeeah just sayn'

The problem with this discussion for me ( considering you both care and asked for what I think.. heh ) is that you're all wrong... Every one of yaz - It's not +PNA this or -NAO that ... or +EPO this or that... Those are scalar values that don't mean shit. ( I know y'all know this but it doesn't hurt to remind - ) It's the modulation of those indexes that matters, because when they are in modality ...that means there is mass changing in domain spaces = correction and restoring. That's your event(s). This is how it works, at all scales and dimensions. We just use +PNA and NAO and AO because they are planetary in scale/dimension so they are more identifiable/forcing as far as necessity for said correction/restoring event(s). Truth be told, you could teleconnect cool air over a sun-warming ( mode change at the surface) bubble as likely to cause a cumulus cloud and nail the prediction based off that micro teleconnector. By the way ... -EPO is bad for us on its own. There needs to be that lag correlation with the negative phase states of the EPO ...where the block collapses ( usually within a 3 to 5 day period), and as it does it descends in latitude and relays into a +PNAP orientation with western N/A ridge and concomitant eastern trough evolution - again...that sets into motion a restoration event and usually given the -EPO relay into + PNAP it's going to be a cold oriented system. -EPOs that don't relay don't do as much for us because the natural R-wave count/spatial layout usually rolls up ridging along the eastern Seaboard. But... through it all, guess what is consistent? The NON-consistency of the modes ... That is a description above of a changing hemispheric quadrature. Static indices in general are not good. Once a +PNA is in place and non modulating... well, just look at the 12z Euro. It has a shallow amplitude +PNA that is unchanging and so the D4 looks like it was mapped on D10 ... BOOOORRRRRINNNnnng

What part of the snow expectations in SNE require your image be interpreted as a failure in the first place ? good luck their zippy lol No, you got ur facts turned around. That's an epic success. J/k, I get the troll effort -

I don't believe that assumption logically follows ... ( bold ) If one employs technologies that do not profligate resource consumption, than there's no problem - that's just math. The paradox you mentioned is an economics theorem; not sure I see the logic of why that means we should not supplant fossil fuels with green/renewable energy sourcing, when the latter drops the "exhaust" of humanity below the thresholds that adversely affects/effects the vitality and eventual gestalt of the total environment. The theorem defaults to non-detrimental. That's what this is all about - can the background absorb without forcing - The complete "commune" vision of Humanity has zero plausibility and/or logistically managed reality to it. There's too much power for ingenuity and wonder for advancing discovery as part of our evolutionary gift to withstand these motivations, which requires capacity that far exceeds the bucket and lever society paradigm. What I'm saying is... tech is part of our evolution as the true tool manipulator species - you can't remove that any more than you can ask someone to ... remove a hand or a foot. You can't do it. The solution is harmony - it's just that right now... we generate more din and discord, when we gear resource acquisition straight into the machinery greed-based economics. That much I agree with in principle/over-tones to some of what you imply.

See .... ? Snow88 and Greg love each other -

Really ? I didn't see that - I counted 4.5 S/W's all doing the same damn thing. Skipping off the southern heights like rocks off a pond ... skirting through the Maritimes as smeared out wind shifts for us.

Yet...this air mass rolls right on out and we bobble-headingly saucer eye at how despite it's present cold magnitude it could so blithely and wrongly become 32.5 upon the ensuing rain and wind ... Nice -ooh rah for the cold

He asked me as well... Did you help the guy ?

Yeah, preaching to the choir for me ... I don't think this winter is going to be very dictated/forced by ENSO ... I think the multi-decadal polarward index, which is in descent and I believe flipped negative, probably is more evidenced at more times than not, as being weighty in influence/proxy on the flow constructs. More N/stream ..buuuuuuut, there's that expanded HC stuff that is presently papered/scienced and gathering recognition to contend with. Namely, that GW shit ain't going away, and the expanded tropical/sub-tropical belt into the lower Ferrel Cell latitudes, and the concomitant speeding up the flow/gradient saturation stuff... We'll just have to cross those bridges as the they come. I'm not sure what the means to be honest. I don't think it means "no" or even lower snow... I suspect - intuitively - it more effects the style of delivery. Maybe fast events ...shearing and WAA events.. "nickle and dime" accounting... Icers? ...things of that nature, but perhaps doing okay in the aggregate. Bombs are still possible but the days of cutting them off and Fuki Wara S of ISP may be absent. .... OR, yup - we have to be open to the possibility that the flow speed/gradient might mitigate, too. A matter of amounts in that case. Anyway, the cold early Novie and the statistical relationship you bring up, strikes me as consistent with those years that had more -EPO (NAO) type tendencies.

Oh that. I forgot. Right. No. I didn't get involved in anything he was working on - you mean James from Cape Cod? Nah, my thing began years ago... I put it down for along while. Few years actually. Then suffered a bout of " professional ostracizing, " ( heh ) and used the year off to really focus and finish it up. So it is what it is... But as far as James, I vaguely do recall now him asking me but nothing ever came of it.

Those numbers are harder to get to then their scalar values might immediately suggest, too ( I know you know that...just sayn' ) Makes me wonder how we could also not have any snow - hahaha. Man, that's beautiful - I mean, considering that November is a seasonally deep enough month that minus f'n 6 anything in temps should be kissed more kindly with the former.

Huh... not sure what you mean?

Yeah... I don't know why the NAM 'oblongs' the low west to east like that ... "dumb-belling" as you say. You think that's real..? Thing is, the 00z Euro looked like it bumped E too so I'm wondering if we should be tossing that... Either way, the circulation is broad, so... NAM error or not, it may be large enough to get bands rotated into central and eastern areas even in an east position. Btw, I was just looking at the FOUS grid in ALB, and I think those T1 to T2 sounding profiles there probably are jammed into central Mass ...Worcester Hills and maybe western Middlesex. I don't think Logans is very good to use because that 05/04 wind direction at 30 kts is mostly likely contaminating the lower thickness with marine - Plus, the QPF clown maps really want to flip the NW arc to salmon as it is, and given to the notion that the lowest levels probably are even colder than even the higher resolution runs have it ( by a tick or two ) I think lends some to a freezing potential in the interior. we'll see I guess.

Back to the weather... ( sorry ) Now we got a sneaky kind of separate error ( maybe ) showing up. I noticed the Euro's detailed surface low track bumped E a bit on the 00z cycle. The 06z Good-For-Shit model also did that... Now, the 12z NAM also has it's surface low wobbling pretty far E of Cape Cod when passing our latitudes here in SNE. Meanwhile, it's pummeling eastern half with terminating CCB rains and [ probably ] IP/zr rain mixed inland. The problem with that is that we might actually be looking at a late correct east, over all, and since the NAM typically expands west Atlantic cyclone influence too far W/N, it's 12z QPF could very well be vastly overdone ... That's probably going to be true for this particular Not-Achieving-Model, anyway, and could be considered a separate matter. Or, it's all noise and the low will bump back west here.

Breakfast mushrooms for Tip ? WTF Lol - hahaha.... One should read that with a soup-con of tongue-in-cheek, cynical incredulity, btw It's more dark humor, which never conveys too well in writing. It's snark not intended to offend by the way... Scott get's what I mean. Not to be dishonest by implication, hey ...I engage in the time waste. I have written a novel, currently in pre-press at a publishing house ...contracted and the whole work. I have a slow era at my job these days, which is stable - I should be using this opportunity to start a new writing project, and continue. But I'm stuck in a complacency rut ( of sorts..) and don't have any ideas - other than taking pot-shots at cultural observation, that is... But, I spend far too much time involved in here - no question - when the better valor of my energies would probably find better virtue elsewhere. I mean ...no offence, really. There's nothing wrong with engaging in this sort of "vapidity" - sometimes we need a break and it's a good diversion, and all that. But, spending too much time ... in any social media platform, is a problem in society in general to be honest. But that's a separate subject matter for a different forum-ilk.

mm... That's not the good season, imho. The good season is when the season f'n gets good. This endless blathering of pointless minutia by psychotropically enslaved phone-zombies is emptied of value, and many pages of it is a special kind of hell - but hey, at least Apple and Android or wealthy, huh. But, that's just the way I feel about a dumb-down "Twit" ospheric ambit of a cultural, more and more so pedestrian'ed by morons unwittingly in wait for the lights to turn out before they realize that they've been stupefied to the brink of their very ability to survive in the absence of these devices. Seriously, the whole world is digital ... too digital to be safe or representative of any kind of foresight and provisional awareness of the future. Nothing's in print, certainly not ubiquitously enough. When the Carrington Event hits again ( and recent research has exposed that not only are they more frequent from our particular start than previously thought, our star is also capable of far greater storm magnitudes ), no one is going to be able to make potable water. 90 % of the population in these Western cultures, does not really know how to live off the land ( and that's the whole spectrum of provision resourcing, flora successfully with the Earth, supplemented by successful fauna ), nor has much of any clue what to do next - seeing as we are multi-generation buried inside the conveniences of this post Industrial Revolution bubble of fragile conveniences. F! we only think it's robust, because time creates a faux security, as though it is somehow more resilient than it really is. No washing machines... No dryers. No toasters. No refrigerators. No lights. Most likely ...no home heating for the majority. No phones. No satellite, nor all the subsequent codependencies societies of modern ilk have become completely and utterly reliant upon. No big medicine or pharma... Each one of those "No xxx" is a header for a spectrum of hells beneath them, too. Man, ... it strikes me in a nervy way as someone who thinks about this shit an awful lot, whenever someone connects the concepts of 'good' with that vapidity of all that really is NOT offered by these conceits of technology, and the assumptions and entitlements that come with it all.