Typhoon Tip

Look on the bright side ... if you fell in the Boston Harbor at that temperature, you'd be dead inside of five minutes.

And ...that is an anomaly, too - relative to that experience.. Usually even that is too liberal in the models and what verifies is a bit under. But in this scenario that's really a very intense mid level jet that's running up west of the boundary, and there's likely to be a bit of an anomalous restoring flow moving back up across the baroclinic field and up along the elevate frontal slope back over the region. That happens anyway in these "ana" ..( or whatever f cozy euphemism makes us feel good about calling it ...) set ups, but they have to overcome dryness in the column as well as NVA beneath the elevated lifting area..which adds to that gobbling up falls and making the sky more virga like. I'm guessing at a bit more than usual, however, because of that stronger jet back up over Albany and throughout W-NW regions at elevation.

it occurs to me ... folks may not be thinking about this - or are...who knows. But, we're looking at a standardized PG layout on these charts. What may appear to be pure ANA by layout/construction of said standard when then adding QPF paint, may in fact be exposed as an actual closed ...albeit flat surface cyclone if the intervals on the pressure gradient were more discrete.

Too bad the GGEM is what it is because that's lit up man ... Like, trends the weekend blue, then threatens a moderate ice storm before loading up it's la-la range with Miller A seasonal achievement scenario - ha, next run it'll have a comet impact .. just sayn'

Brian, the GGEM this morning crushes your infrastructure out of the grid entirely this weekend... heh

Basically ... per my own experience with these lop-over deals, I would expect very limited realization NW of this yellow annotation below

Mm .. and folks should also be aware, forecasting accuracy may be at a premium, too - typically these sort of quick succession wave patterns will bear out increased error in handling timing and amplitude from run to run. But there may also be more semblance of something around x-y-z date(s), just be ready for less certainty about details until shorter terms.

There's something of a colder complexion type event(s) out there around the solstice ... perhaps more than one given a day or two. May be nickle-diming our way through that week. These are tougher to glean at extended range, however, because they are 'in-between' the tele's type systems. They are not being presaged by any very obvious 'Archembaultian' philosophy of large mass-field correction - which usually are suggestive by observing bigger modalities in the mean of the teleconnector progs, where events tend to take place. Since we don't presently see a coherent PNA burst ... ( although the NAO may be offering hints here... ), I'm inclined to less consolidating for now. But the ensembles are very loaded with opportunities in there with enough consistency across multiple runs that's interesting. Icing may be an issue, too -

Should be a fair amount of yard ponding by late afternoon..

Those linear demarcations are probably just terrain enhancements ...heh whatever - But, I was looking over the bevy of disappointing runs from overnight and it does occur to me, that if that lead S/W ejecting off the Pacific in that quasi-zonal flow out west happens to become dominant ( 12z Wed through the Rockies ...), more so than the trialing mechanics, that would encourage a colder solution along the eastern seaboard. The N/Stream is dominant ...then, rather convenient to the warmer solutions as of late, it suddenly pulls NE with rapidity.. That may happen, but ..if the lead S/W is stronger underneath ( before that escape happens ) that would push up the timing of an eastern seaboard cyclone chance, when there is still cold banked in there. It's wishy washy... but it's your only hope if that thing doesn't somehow end up more marginal - which is a different low probability outcome in its own rights

icing chances appear > than normal in there to me.

almost looks like NWS must've used that pretty much down to the pixel for their early snow coverage -

Because nobody’s considering it

The Latest from the icon model is most likely going to be correct

Not a good teleconnector layout out for winter enthusiasts by the GEFs cluster. Not sure what the EPS derivatives look like, but both the CDC and CPC agencies which base their numbers on said cluster, flip hobbies until further notice. Right out through the pooch screwed Christmas weather ass bangin' Holiday, too Hopefully...the EPS is different and can offer some semblance of a salvation compared to the above despair. Otherwise, seek entertainment ( and for some, 'elation' joy circuitry ) elsewhere.

It could be too easy to cling to the GFS as a soothing alternative - pick delusion over despair...? sure. However, the GFS routinely stretches the flow too prodigiously in the mid and extended range, to the extent where it can't be trusted. In this case, it's bias could very well be promoting too much easterly positions of all features. GFS or Euro aside, all these guidances conserve and blow up and/or damp out, theor own bias'/creations, out in time. Part of the technological charge is to create models that don't do that - The Euro on the other hands - though in a relative sense ... not as egregiously - carries on oppositely as a longer termed tendency. If you click back and forth between D6 and 7 from not 00z, but 12z yesterday's run, just take a look from orbit at the general appeal of that over-arcing flow, between the west coast and Chicago's appr latitude; it somehow, for no apparent geophysical reason, slumps the entire geopotential medium some 6 to 10 DM ...wholescale. That suspicious, and likely erroneous collapsing 24 hour "correction" ...than gets conserved running out through the end of the run with all kinds of troughing mechanics in the western OV. So what we have here - it appears to me - are two models going crazy with there own bias types beyond D 5-ish ( maybe 4 ). Probably ..its endemic to a zonal flow and more at 'low' amplitude PNA that causes that. In a low wave counted 'laminar' flow, that sort of exposes the vanilla tendencies of the models, is my hunch. Because the 00z GFS's solutions stretch credibility...where the Euro ends up with an inferno at 850 over top of a Miller B ? mm...

The other aspect about that mid-week, post cold frontal upglide, because there is unbalance hydrostatic forcing that we can't on god's green Earth be so impudent as to call "ANA" ... event , is that suppose a rendition such as the GFS: I'd go ahead and assume that the spatial coverage where that is actually reaching the ground is ~ the eastern 1/2. Otherwise, that's virga with an amazing sunset spectacle.

Oh... I see why, the 00z Euro makes the impertinent gesture of a miller-B under an 850 mb column that supports mid-May temperatures - That outten'ed-a poke the hornet's nest. Ho man, is that ever U-guh-ly!

Heh, ... just between me and you and everyone I'm about to piss off with this statement, the argument against an ANA probably has a psycho-babble motivation, underpinning. In this rendition of group think .. .people don't want to admit that it is ANA, because "ANA" tends/reputation toward poor verify/no verification - and we can't have that. So the vehemency in semantic pop-cycle head-ache takes it's natural form. Ha ha ha. Can't get reality to change? Attack what we call it instead - hey... I'm good wid dhat - Seriously, I don't care what anyone wants to dink around with in naming waste of time either... I see what you are seeing... a front with sharp 850 to SFC regression of temp exceeding our longitude, with a very strong mid level wind max passing well west ...on top/over top of the elevated frontal slope - QBF between it, and the front's leading edge, is quite theoretically acceptable.

Probably in the overwhelming minority with this ...buut, I find right now through late Monday fascinating, actually. Many of these backyard station obs were -5 to +10 F for low temperatures this morning, across the pan-wide region of interior SNE, and these same locations could be 50 to 60F late afternoon on Monday, ...cloud/showery saturation depending... Still, even in the muted version, we go from this to that with essentially, ZERO active weather, other than the sensible temperature change. It's one of those deals where the whole column/air mass up and bodily moves away, en masse, such that in fewer to no points within are there unbalanced soundings. I.e, no advection of warmth. That's an under-the-radar notability about this synopsis early this week, to go that far in a 24 to 30 hour change with so little advection.

Well... call it what one wants, the cold front out paces the trough, and behind the cold front, there are mid level velocities over a large swath exceeding 100 kts back over PA/NY and S. Ontario - that is going to excite a restoring flow that pulls 700 mb air up the elevated frontal slope, where ever the front is east of that region - that is causing the models to break out QPF on the western/lee-side of the frontal passage. But I haven't seen any overnight runs yet ... just sayn'

These later model runs actually go back to what Will and I were saying last week that it might turn colder this week earlier then we think -trending that way

Lol. ‘Bout sums it up.

Everything beyond 96 hours is in a massive state of flux in the models. continuity breakdown amid multiple Euro sectors in the 12Z underscores that. By the way folks it shifted towards the GFS in a huge way

Inconsolable neurotics. You’re all sitting at some 500% of seasonal totals to date .., wow