Typhoon Tip

yeah it's doable ...just a little leery because what you're suggesting - or any other way for that matter... - is a helluva a lot of engineering schematics to fumble around with that perfect sequencing - yeah no problem right?

Miami Rule ...

It's on the radar yup. SE ridge is not a death sentence: it is workable to get the cryo mayhem and dystropian society disruptions going ...phew ( almost had a run-in with peace and tranquility!) And the pathway to impact is indeed overrunning. Kidding aside, I don't see how we are getting a robust -EPO concurrent with a -NAO (that is hybrid positioned between neutral and western limbed ... ) with a heat source underneath without that potential.

Well... I am not "preoccupied" with shit frankly... If it's in play, it's in play. If people had more awareness, understanding ..thus, respect and acceptance there... they would be likely talking about it too and I would not stand out as lone point of 'playground tactical ridicule' You may have noticed, I haven't also mentioned HC on my own accord as of late - but only did so this morning because you and Will and Scott...you're bringing up more and more lately and pinning it to my name for jocularity ... which, I'm good with ribbing and stuff... but it also carries along a soupcon of undeniable attitude -

You don't have to say "Jesus, John..." ..or rail off into that other sophomoric blather about gayness haha we're only having a conversation here - please don't assign attitude to black and white text. lol - just trying to get why you said it... not a big deal sport

What's ur point? "Sounds" like there's intimation in there to refute the HC's involvement ? I'd would disagree if that's true - we are superimposing two positive factors = enhancement of total result. Wave mechanics are like that... two positively interfering factors = 5 ... Think of rogue way theory in the open ocean as a reasonably metaphor - the arena of the sea and the ocean of the air are after all .. both wave problems. But, there are two forms of wave interferences that can lead to rogue wave production: Linear; Non-linear Linear is when two waves come along with harmonic timing, and then fuse their energy, and the peak of the wave exceeds the 'apparent' input. Non-linear is when you have two competing wave functions propagating through a system, ...call them function A, and function B. A ... bleeds energy off into B... at some crucial threshold of absorption, A's appearance seems to fall to negligible ( if transiently...) in lieu of a sudden and majestically towering B ... and floundered Edmond Fitzgerald's ...etc..etc.. Both these mathematically backed theories on wave interference satisfy wave results in the open sea... They do also in the atmosphere. But, the migraine only starts there...because they both happen at the same time. But, HC is a wave... La Nina is a wave... so to are the individual S/W and L/Ws...which ride along and help to define wave-function C .. D .. E .. F ...N wave spaces. They interact along these types of interference circuits above ...cannot be removed. By the way... HC is not my theory or observation - although...I noticed something was up with the wind velocities and the winter-time heights staying insidiously elevated in the deep S about 15 years ago ..and upon hearing of the HC stuff it's pretty damningly correlated in my mind.

Yup...I was looking over shit this morning and thinking ... same old shit. It just won't relent with this buckshotting - spraying S/W in a rage really is both a deterministic/forecaster's nightmare, but also a modeling proof that models can't model that. I mean I'm seeing both machine and human intelligence gaffs going on as of late... All these Twitter reposts, and none of those have really bore much resemblance to what was anticipated or averred ... I mentioned this yesterday and I think it needs to really sink in and be underscored - fast flow with blocking overarching the polar index domain spaces performs severely ungood! People should go ahead a continue to rip and read model solutions from D8's ... post in here and open dialogue - it's all good. Because it is the scaffold of this particular engagement .. serving as an escape and for many, another social outlet - blah blah... But understand that you're talking about the fun movie you once just saw. It's not real. It's state-of-the-art's best it can do in a time when entropy and chaos are overwhelmingly large influential emergences across the bevy of technology solutions. Actual forecaster value? We are about as close to Futile as we were in a D10 MRF solution from circa 1986, for D6 given this era we're destined to enter. So why? ..Oh, you're asking me? okay - It's because of the HC working synergistically in concert with the ENSO - which we seemed to intimate we agreed recently? It is both impossible to deny that relationship as it is difficult to parse either's influence as more or less dominant in that relationship - thus the result on the flow construct. But, I'm seeing that massively displaced and amplified ( both z-coordinate and areal expansive) west Pacific and eastern Asian PV as plausibly being synergistic. The HC anomaly enhances easterly trades as a base-line state; so, too, does the La Nina. But that piling of warm water really enrichens the wester Pac latent heat source, and then when the Boreal colder heights crept in over Autumn, the flow thus greatly accelerated coming off Asia over and through the WPO domain. That incredible focus at huge mass quantities and scales is driving the vortex because basic Met theory, heights fall polarward of jet cores... it does this at all scales - so...all that is generating the PV N of Japan/S of Kamchatka and it is pulling the AO negative by virtue. I don't know if this ever will parlay to better forecasting behavior in mid and extended range guidance this winter ... because if following, logic dictates that mess near Japan is actually anchored by longer term major factors constructively enhancing one another... That's code for not likely to change. And I don't have much confidence in the man intelligence because as a credit to my own conceit ( LOL ... ) I suspect I'm the only person that sees all these and explores both limitations and advantages to the circumstances at large. Now...that does not preclude "getting lucky" - ...that outta get the fun popsicle headache of useless argument going... Seriously, the strong flow over the western/central Pack, terminating near the 140 W region as a SW ridge climb...is sending a -PNAP across the mid latitudes of the U.S/ Canada... Meanwhile, we are blocking over top ( as already discussed..). It's spraying inharmonic wave crap underneath wobbling blocks, both in real time and model permutations ...

Mm.. I can see or suspect what your after/why saying so but synoptic evolution as it portends to favorable vs unfavorable for storm realization - I think .. just imho so don't launch - brings better return rate. Are you "sort of" bearing in mind the old mantra, "...most warnings don't actually produce tornadoes" ?? Different beast. In fact, I would argue that most large scale systemic pattern indigestions do actually produce a 'corrective event' at some form of scale or another/geographic realization. I think the difference is IMBY ( as the vernacular goes...). Most synoptic pattern changes do produce, just not in one's back yard ever times, versus, most supercells don't produce. Not quite as bad as apples and oranges... maybe more like apples and pears. just sayn'

Well thank god for seasonal lag because in three weeks the solar nadir is over

I'm curious because that differs down stream with the wave orientation at larger scales... That's allowing that NJ Model nuke to do that open wave quick strike event like that implies. But, being so far out in time - its probably a red herring anyway. I think that error is going to be ginormous in that time frame. We're probably going to be looking a different cinema at different time intervals on every run... ha

LOL,... just gibben yah duh bidness - actually which model tho -

Concurs rather succinctly with the GEFs too - I'm not sure what to make of that ... other than an early spring - lol just kidding No, but with the -AO antecedent, as in ..already on-going, then, we add a new exertion to suppress the AO from that SSW stuff ...the two factors may synergistically feed-back and really, that muddles things considerable. ( It may be why a several of the GEFs members at CPC are drilling the AO to exotic depths out toward week two. That's timing right when the PV would start to stress and reel from the warming aloft/SSW shenanigans... Thought I saw -7 SD there...yikes! ) ... Firstly, -PNA is not a death sentence ( for the general reader ..) it depends on the mass idiosyncratic layout ... If the PNA is biased tad E while negative ...the flow will tend to split out west. That turns a "warm pattern" into " bomb pattern" really fast... Or, icing and overrunning...etc... Throw in a weighty blocking regime 50 to 60 N over top ... Lot of possibilities ... and I was just commenting to ray that this has powdered model -fug-up just at water written all over it!

Yeah ...'sorry' is right ...when we don't know wtf this product's origin or source is ...

Oh... well, shit yeah there's no similarity. Yeah, folks need to look at this as a unique new uncharted Winter deal - This particular installment of -NAO ( if succeeding...) is under carriaged by a f'n fire hose roaring across the CONUS. It's a reason why I think the deterministics in this era are in crisis bad performance frankly - we're in for a bumpy performance ride. I just wonder if this pattern insistence of blocking nodes with higher than normal hemispheric, base-line wind velocities might be beyond the state of the art - interesting...

The block can be there because of that low... The low is there because of non-linear wave dispersion downstream of the Pac /N/A pattern... and then that stalling flops latent heat ino height rises in the NAO domain ... It looks likes the block is pinning the low but ...technically that's not exactly right but for purpose in here, ...haha, folks don't understand Schroginger math - Which can at times be fine - usually what transpires is the 50/50 fills and opens up at the last minutes ( so to speak...) and that opens up the wave spacing for the new one to go to work. It's why in retrograde tendencies, the R-wave numbers situate/move west relative to the flow - it's synoptic 101 we learn in FAST as undergrads.. The 50/50 is a L/W axis technically...and then it moves out fills...as the Midwest carves out a new one more here - and that drills the R-wave pattern orientation backward.

Hhhhehhh...... on the fence with that look frankly - probably ...I'm in the minority in a starved group of anything to toe hold for the love of god forlorning ... lol, but I don't like the wave spacing between that midwest axis and that NAO block... Which by the way, the NAO has really come into prominence in the last couple three or so cycles...It was less emphatic and not nearly as well designed, then the operational runs ( interestingly enough...) sort of led the way, and now the ensembles of both seem to like the notion of a mid geographic/ .. neutral position layout out. Anyway, the problem is that mid west trough can't really roll out ridging ahead of it because of that totality of that look ( to me ..). Meh ... That block needs to relax ...or the ridge just pancakes along the fast velocities exiting the EC and the midwest wave squashes... Granted, this is a snap shot - maybe that block up there is moving or decaying ...In which case the trough moves up to take its place, the ridging amps passing off the EC, and that mid west thing than carves

You know... I've been sentient as a Meteorologist for ... oh 25 ... maybe 30 years ... I don't recall any winter ever from ~ 37 N on up that really suffered a lack of winter production because "lack of cold air" - has anyone ever said, 'there's a lack of cold air' in the first place ? There's always enough ... whether it is aloft ..or plumbed to the deck ... or astride the region in Ontario... it's always within synoptic/dynamical reach - The issue is cyclones and circumstances therein, where the physical processes can access the cold or not. Yes... In J-J-A and most of S into the first halves of O's ...there is a definitive lack of cold air

Ha.... nah, not considering them would be more apropos in this setting/ .. pattern circumstance(s)

noticed others commenting on the sensible weather as of late .... I can only add, I don't recall a January with wind this still. Specifically that one particular metric... In the last 10 days, I've seen two days where flags wobbled...as in, zephyrs all but unnoticeable ..otherwise, it's been almost calm the whole time. ( there may be an afternoon that I am forgetting but for all intents and purposes - ) That's getting extraordinary ... We are approaching the perennial windiest time of the year for Logon ...can't imagine that's not the case everywhere else around here just the same.. Here we are again, ...no wind. And frankly, the temperatures, general appeal, other than a couple few cloud afternoons as others have noted... these other aspects are remarkable fixed. We have also seen an exceptionally long duration of fair to sun sky. Although that's a different metric than wind - just sayn' pretty remarkably quiescent

So I suppose there is some argument for that trending south and East the NAO won’t typically allow a lakes motion up into Canada.

Mm... I was too impressed frankly ...seeing as my opinion matters lol no, but that flow is too fast and the waves are interfering with one-another too much to be very confident that much will evolve of that parade of loudness and not actually impact -

I've noticed that too... It's been everywhere ( time and spaces, and all models tho - all year... I am not sure if this was doing so last year ...year(s) before and so on...but, the mid and particular extended range features have tended to significantly attenuate nearing the 96 and 120 hour range. Some siggy bombs have ended up clippery sliders too, when once deeply wound - it's been pretty pronounced. I don't know..I've mused before that it's like the full foreboding moon coming over the horizon a very clear evening... IT looks absolutely ginormous - It's like a metaphor... The models seem to magnify these things, and in more practical terms, there's something about the physical handling in the models that is over assessing matters out in time.

Okay ... cool - so... the SSW does appear to actually be propagating. I did post a graphic and that concern late yesterday. The impetus being, if the propagation does not take place there is no physical exertion in the pV domain and so that as a forcing mechanism for pV break-down and ...blah blah blocking is likely being achieved via other pathways ( such as standard planetary wave dispersion ) at high latitudes. That's when WAA ends up at high latitudes after robust mid level cyclonic graveyard migrations ..etc... Anyway, this morning, there is a new node materializing on the graphs at GDAS, down toward the 50-70 sigma levels...; that tells us that the main (previous) emerged 5-10 sigma lobe of heat is in fact, moving down in the atmosphere ... That needs another weak to entangle in the tropopausal depths, however... which is about right on time for the total 20 day average lag correlation. Meanwhile, ...the funny aspect is the AO has been greatly depressed lower than 0 SD for a month already anyway. And no...it is not related to the presently tracking SSW/propagation - because if one knows how to read ...we need to succeed said lag ... It also lends to the discussion aspects Will and Scott and I were having regarding the futility versus usefulness of that factorization on the hemisphere ... if/when circumstances are interfering with it in a constructive version destructive sense... It's not a silver bullet into the heard of the winter vampire that saves children of winter doe-eyeds dreams and fairies... no. It's conditionally accessible as a help. If the ongoing AO is neggie already ( like now...) it's questionable if/when it's modulation is either detectable...or if so, if it means much of physical difference anyway. Other aspects ... like, it could be arriving in a +AO winter...and force the index neutral or negative, and the cold could spill out of Eurasia ... It's all around an aggrandized factor that needs to wane in popularity just like the NAO from the 1990s over-assumption of utility too -... wah wah wahhhhh

Wasn't that the giant Euro bust of all timers ?? I think that was the one when the Euro came in at like 60 or 72 hours out, ...well inside it's theoretical 'unbeatable' performance windoe of less than 4 days too ..., and put up 30" inside of a 72 mph CCB low-level cryo jet! Sending NWS scrambling to get blizzard warnings up for an event that by virtue of population/demographics would mean probably a NESDIS ( using K.U. for instance ) of 6~! ... Phew...just got it in with barely enough time to get the homeless into shelters and the Nat Guard on stand-by and just then, the 24 hour models were snow showers - ... Gotta be a burp run, right? Sort of... the 11" was made to be flurries in the specter of all that dramatic shit show - Thing that's interesting about that is the bust was prooobably - I'm wondering ... - worse for the weather 'com-con' community and the forecasters then it was for the public in an interesting psycho-babble twist. I wonder that because 11" toted along sideways in 55 mph gusts at 15 F is ferocious enough and to the J.Q. Public, which is the real 99th percentile bio-mass ( lol ) ...that may have been plenty severe enough to have warranted said drama... or at least closed the interpretive gap on a busting vs realization toward the latter..

Perhaps vaguely equivalent to SE Canada .. U.S. GL/NE region’s “2015”