Typhoon Tip

EPS has also been easing off the amplitude of that total trough integration though, too - red flag? Might be. - folks holding out for an exit hurrah, keep in mind that the hemisphere at mid latitudes is normalizing at an increasingly factoring aspect. Normalizing in this context means "losing large scale storminess" . The tendency to demolish ambient baroclinicity through increasing insolation, as it is sweeping very quickly S to N, is the culprit. It is an emergent 'correction' to keep in mind that is only making it harder than the day before to mainatin - the models 'might' not morph along with that acceleration - in fact, I argue over the years of experience that if they do, they do a lousy job. GFS probably the worst ...owing to NCEP creating a model that only has N/stream and no other reality on the planet ..ugh. Anyway, storms...even big ones modeled now through April, may end up verifying much more paltry... shredded cirrus and altro-strata whirls with even sun gaps that tend to fill in with pancake CU underneath, when they were originally modeled to be more more cohesive impactors. For bigger late spring blue bombs and blizzard freaks, what needs to happen is a proportionately bigger anomaly cold input to offset the seasonal factor. Which has of course happened. But, that thing at the end of the week.. doesn't appear situated to benefit so my guess upon thinking about this is that may not work out. We'll see... The flow is still a bit fast overall, though it is slowing right after that out toward the Equinox and beyond... Maybe that's a wild card in itself.. But, there's also that tendency for 'system magnification' in the models. I mused months ago that storms showing up on D10-12 in the extended, they are like the moon coming over the dusk horizon ...looming with terrifying celestial prominence ... but then lose the magnification and ends tiny. By the way, that late month signal is starting to look rather warm - bigger signal than this last shot across the bow... Has a green up trigger vibe to it. The NAO is rising while the PNA remains neutral - in a numerical averaging... + and neutral / 2 = positive... etc.. I still believe that this spring as whole will not suffer the protracted and/or cold recidivism of those recent years ...that brought green up belated April's and even snow flurry CAA cu in May... My mind's eye visualizes the last 10 days of the month La Nina spring incarnate with a multi-guidance eastern height anomaly already being modeled... while the telecon layout supports ... That's prooobably all going to parlay and closed the books on the 2020-2021 winter story - climate anyway... But, I think there is some chance for the very rare balmy April.

Heh. 0Z GFS phases even more .. pretty much a cutter at this point.

rain showers too... Interesting seeing half the ptype on Intell. scans not snow even N of the border. Monday appears to be the deeper cold thrust

Took a look. GFS is attempting too bully the N/stream in to the party. It’d be better off if that jet up there dissociated. If it did that might even take on ‘97. Half ass phase only fs things up tho

Suggest less imaginative-casting, and more forecasting utilizing - at least in attempt ... - applied logic/analytics and techniques - thus, the former as formative from those deterministic sciences in the matter. It's fun and artful to dream up scenarios ... We've all done it, either deliberately or even in accident... but don't be reliant - that is not going to have a positive return method frankly. Plus, it's a little odd if one expects those visions to happen? But it also bad practice in general, if one does that... but then must wait on, or be reliant, that permutations and the vagaries of the fractal nature of distant weather patterns and the wind will happen to emerge scenarios consistent with their fantasies. Just a word to the wise ... You're - probably - young, and full of mental energy. I would not want to discourage anyone in that time of life...

There seems to be layers of competing error in that regard. Both in the model itself, and among all guidance for that matter. The first layer is as you say... but, I would also extend that the Euro has a consummate "multi-generational" ( meaning it's been going on for years across successive upgrades) bias when going form the outer short range into mid range, and then again going from the deeper mids to the extended range. It seems to default whatever it is handling in the atmosphere nearing those temporal seams, to a category of increased amplitude when crossing the time range. I've noticed this at 4.5 days ...then again 7 + The first one does it the most. If there is a small clipper 'dent' in the 500 mb stream lines at D4 ... by D6, it's a full latitude torque menace over the OV far far too often... And usually we get threads and posts going about the D7 Euro like equal clockwork. Ha ha, I bet if did a correlation statistical analysis on thread and post frequency as a comparison to the Euro, we would see a very high correlation coefficients between those amp intervals and the scale and degree of gaeity and good spirits that passes through this social media'sphere like a panacea cure for all that travails and ails the beleaguered warriors suffering dearths of lives outside this obsession -... Might be an interesting analysis for the techno-sociological experiment of Humanity in modernity dissertation Ray should be working on to garner his PHD... But I digress - lol Anyway, seriously ... the second aspect/layer is that all models - as separate issue to the Euro's ongoing native bias ... - have been very consistently seeing disturbances in the D7+ range quite ominous compared to what they end up being whence the arrive to say ...D4 ... Insidiously correcting toward less and less in inches and parametrics as it gets near, such that you just sort of end up with bag of peanuts when you thought you were toting a roast turkey. Ha, like that dream? You know? Where you have the impression of holding the hand of your dream girl, and then when you look down -in the dream - she's not there. Then the dream spends the next few minutes of tossing and turning and REM as you try and find her and it seems like the dream deliberately evades her presents. Probably the same phenomenon as trying to reach the end of a hall and as you run faster, it stretches to infinity and you can never find it. I digress again... man, I have a real problem with that, I know - Problem is, how to parse out which error is representing for next week is ... good luck.

Saw that - thing is, the Euro with it's curvature defaulting for whatever it is in the process of handling on D4's, then relaying that into 6's in general, has me thinking that it bottoms the barrel out there in the southern Rockies earlier on too much. Meanwhile the EPS has the same 120 hour and 168 hour suggestion as the GEFs... and both are sending enough signal under LI that it's probably wise to suspect that operational look.

Very difficult to compare/contrast cross-guidance at Tropical Tidbits.. Makes we wonder if the site's purveyor is really a Meteorologist and not really just a weinershnitzel with clever web programming skills - That site click-action always forces you to the last hour of a given models release cycle, and it throws you off when doing continuity analysis - very annoying actually...to the point where I want to stop using that site. Hey...it's free so - heh...don't wanna be a douche either, but that's stupid design either way. When you are on the 00z ECM, and you click to the GFS... it sends you to the 06z GFS ... WRONG I bet this individual is like that person at the office that runs around and asks people if they saw the big game last night ... waits to hear them say, 'NO, they have it recorded...' ... THEN, launches into a details play-by-play accounting of the event. Pivotal ..which is far superior anyway for comprehensive product spectrum ... does it right. If you are on the 12z anything... it takes you to that same model cycle elsewhere if it can -

Yeah ...I dunno - it's not rubbing it in but this is now what? 6 out of 7 recent years that had an early warm that is absurd - Happening in either NINO, NINA or NADA this, polar that... and it didn't matter. mm hm... there's something going on - particularly when you couch that aspect in with all these other 20 year's worth of various oddities that people rationalize and avoid the implications of -ha

nah... that was always frigid and alone - ..in fact that storm next week? that was wrapped around my genitals so tightly wound that apparently it still is

This ought'n get the forsythia buds swellin' and the crocus shoots all nice and set up good and proper to be destroyed this weekend... I wonder if the climate change models ever specifically signaled 50 degree temperature swing - related crocus genecide ...lol

71 here at multiple home sites ... feels like it.. has that above living room feel walking out the front door -

Farmer's Gold storm... It's a saying out in farm country. You like these Equinoxial snow thumps... in fact, they love 'em in April too... preferably after the first tilling rotation of Earth. The snow fixes a nitrogen goose ...and sometimes at the tail of a dearthy snow year, too - so actually needs it. It's all relevant to preference - ha... Will and I have been half joking that this was a 70 to snow year feel to it... We can't seem to shake the N/stream despite the tele's suggesting it's May already ...so, let's see if we can get this done.

Yup...I bitched and complained my way into the warm sector ! ... I still suggest there was an ill-modeled diffused lag in the warm arrival though...the clearing here in Ayer 2 hours ago coincided with a coherent increase in SW breeze...flag waving, and we jumped from 55 to 66 inside of a 40 minutes when that happened... So... delayed by not ultimately denied - Yeah Scott - one helluva of a classic blue bomb look to that... That thing goes from 991 to 981 in those 12 hours passing just quintessentially along the climate route for puking 15" of green tinted power outage from Kevin to Will to Ray... While you ... uh, might oatmeal in that for a while but you'd end in paper mache The only problem is... there's not much support from the GEFs or cross-guidance... But you know what - I suspect that matters less? Just because spring craziness is clearly set into the model behavior. The flow is also flattish off the Pac with weak western ridge semblance and so ...a bit of an 'unmanned firehose' thing going on. So it not adding to confidence ..it's not taking away either.

Here's a question for ya ... If this monolithic towering rise yu see above is only producing pedestrian warmth, why would that dip then imply giddy reason to post this product - Ha...I'm just bustn' ballz a bit but there is some truth to not really getting optimistic over that. I would also caution that in spring these indices will tend to part company from their operational runs ... more so than normal headaches. For example, that huge mode change in the AO that you see that has taken place over the last 10 days above... has been accompanied by a neutral PNA that has tended to sag negative. Yet the operational runs have still dangling false hopes in front of enabled drug users in here - It seems "synergistic" results are out of phase with leading indicators - regardless of tech ... Probably lost you on that sentence - but what I mean is like this. Say you go to Atlantic City on two separate occasions. Every aspect of your reality is identical upon both visits - right down the way your shoes are tied, what you ate, the amount of sleep and your vital signs. To the type of weather, and the mood and atmosphere of person and personality of setting... all of it, identical. Why then do you roll snake eyes all f'ing night when you rolled 7' the other time ?? There is a 'result' tendency ... that cannot be predicted when there is infinitum of moving parts ... - they come together by utterly unknowns and though rare, there are times where 'rogue' actions service ...less than predicted products. The vicissitudes of the wind and weather? Sometimes there is snow in a piss poor patterns... and other times, you get big index signals that do shit. We are in warm index mode that is not producing .. very well. From La Nina to HC to those indexes above, ... hell, throw CC in there too... there is nothing that supports that arctic blast this weekend. But she comin' ... So, I know what you are thinking - 'so than a little cold must get really cold and snowy!" wrong - synergy right now is disappointment. Whatever emerges .. it will be other than what you don't want LOL ...

To me that is a smoking gun ( maybe..ha! ) that we have some kind of warm frontogenesis aspect to this ...that's butt plugging the warmth a bit. It may wash in during the afternoon. But that calm wind isn't really throwing a warm sector vibe when there's 'supposed' to be sufficient gradient to move flags today. I've had orb sun at times here just down the road from KASH in Ayer but I wouldn't call it trying just yet. 10:30 52 ... presently 18 shy of records while Scranton PA is 66 ... yeah, typical SNE cheating to keep it cold. lol

Part of the problem is trying to run a warm air mass up through 572 dm heights... not convincing. Higher heights ...even in laminar or non confluent flow layouts tends to default to DVM in the ambient motion, and that offset this sort of crap you see out there when looping the hi res vis imagery. There's seems to be a colocation of terrain enhancing/position static cloud production, whenever/while swaths of high level ceilings passing overhead .. You can see that over the Worcester els/Monadnocks. But it is drying some ...as said, CT opened up rather abruptly in the last 1/2 hour. Could be a bit/slight differential heat advection too... -like a non-charted diffused warm frontal aspect to this. You know, it's times like these we are forced to remember that when we look at the weather charts, those lines? those are arbitrary chosen intervals... And we think of fronts as materializing and decaying around those intervals but ... everything is asymptotically emerging and decaying in the fluidity of the atmosphere. So, even though the weather charts may look as certain way, there can be a warm or cool boundary...or any kind of boundary in there. The best way to really prove this phenomenon is to look at high res vis loops of the tropics and geek out ofver weird lines of clouds that don't show up on any pressure contouring or moisture product or anything - yet something is causing a linearity that is non entropy in cause.

right LOL ... it was all over the overheads at the gym last night - they were all breaking the record by like 1 deg. The local TV mets, that is .. Still, I think this is a bit of a cloud bust - I'm preeetty sure people were not visualizing this as sun shut down out there, which this is. I mean, it looks like a snow sky hahaha Actually, CT's sky is opened up so - it may just be a speed bump. Sat shows it's really only targeting my living room with a tight little bundle of Zeus deck over this part of Mass but such is the life of the perceived eternally persecuted ...

Day's a dud for records .. ? It'll make good on warmer than normal - of course - but this cloud contamination will cap that potential the longer it continues more prevalent than modeled. Or is that that case - modeling? I remember seeing the 700mb and 500mb RH as being < 50% in the Euro a few days ago... At that same 300mb ...way the f up there where it really 'shouldn't' be an issue, was 70+ ... I figured it was being too cute - well here we are... I've noticed this too, to go along with a growing numbers of nuanced changes and tendencies of observed weather over the years... Warm sectors are becoming more like this with milk dud upper levels ... Mutes heat potential. I wonder if that's part of the ambient increase in WV quota - interesting. This is like that day in mid July that has a shot at 100 and it's in the forecast, ...but the this pall at 20K feet seems to emerge in just enough to keep in 97.2 ... Only today we shy records by decimals because of this ... which seems like it shows up just for that purpose lol...

San Francisco can't hold a candle to the sore butting of spring in New "corn-holed" England ... basically from Friday afternoon until Hades freezes over. Hyperbole of course.. I was in 'Frisco last June ..during the early days of the Pandemic... heh. I can tell you other than the fact that there are nude middle aged dudes walking down Market Street with their noodles and beads just flopping around under barrel bellies in broad daylight ( because of some weird inner city cult thing... that is constitutionally protected), it's a remarkable aesthetic geology that resides under a mash up with urban terrain. I mean ... the hills are famed, right - The wind blew at 20 kts unrelenting from the WNW... channeling through the inlet where the GGB spans the Muir hills to the Frisco side of the Bay. There's some remarkable vistas up in those hikes ... And the Bay was often white capped with wavelets ripping toward the east. Wet-suited acrobatic sailors on their wind-surf boards were fun to halt and watch at times, while folks in masks walked the causeway of the Marina district by and by. The air T was 67 there ... ranging 72 down town typically. SO, a bit annoying with constant wind ...sure. But down town is bit protected ...and some of the commons were rather napey most of the time because they were out of the breeze. I suppose when Sam made his famous observation, they didn't have the concrete jungle in place to offer as much refuge from the wind I suppose. New England is not that charming though, at any point in the Spring - sorry... subjective or not, it's not.. nope. Heh, I know - maybe we just need more nude people walking around here in broad daylight next to other pedestrians who seem oblivious to strange "turkey" and balls... Interesting there's no woman part of the cult. What a f'n weird place. But I guess ...I wasn't there in "Fogaust" ... I guess August is the shrouded hills and mank month that earned that destination its honor. Mm, maybe - but that sounds like April incarnate almost dependably every year, here, just the same.

Seems to me ... the idea of this warm up receding back to climo is really still the course of least regret for anticipating the rest of the month ... - this 12z Euro is banally uninspired typology of why it should be paramount for all citizens of the U.S. that live E of Chicago and N. of about PHL, to stash enough independent wealth to leave and not come back until circa May 1 - end date negotiable, too. Go anywhere in the world, but leave this piece of shit climate where it is almost as annoying listening to "at least hold on to snow hope" rationalized garbage - to the dumpster fire that is this putrid region of the world. That run is classically spring New England nothing redeemable - absolute zero usefulness, piece of shit weather ... Now, the upshot of that is that it's like the antithesis of the D9 Euro bomb? - it's a perfectly bad solution, which by virtue of such long lead ...it must also be doomed to fail and not actually happen. Any D6-10 perfect dogshit must by convention run through the same uncertainty milling ... something a little more enjoyable is the only room for any correction at all. So... we'll see..

And now deep thoughts with Jack Handy -

I'm getting increasingly worried(hopeful) as a spring enthusiast(winter enthusiast) that we will pay a dear price for this warm impertinence this week. I mentioned this in a post a while ago ...sometimes these early warm ups preceded a -NAO pulse in past springs. I wonder where we are 8 days from now. For one, on top of the Equinox so... we'll be dealing with the diabatic mutilation of the hemisphere but... seeing as we've had blizzards with actual blowing snow as late as April, it would be unwise getting lost in a warm week ( anyway..) on March 9, but particularly because there is that tendency to do that with the NAOs and drive cold here while the rest of the planet regales in the crapulence of a global warming spring while we watch... It's not a forcecast - it's a early idea ... I'd like to see the EPS over the next several days ... But what are we going to do with all this early heat when the r-waves roll out? It could plume it's way up at to higher latitudes, at upper levels, and dump you know where. That's what that is.. I am in full on spring mode so... this hurts me more than you think. But I have to be objective as much as I can. So many of these early warmth springs in the last 6 years have screwed later ... Maybe La Nina protects us where it failed to show in the winter... Course, there is that deviant in my that wouldn't mind getting getting a blue bomb and taking everyone higher than seasonal normal snow fall by one single inch, while ruining all their gardens and melting off the next day - that would be my revenge haha.. j/k

mm, I wonder if the model might even get bumped up in those ratings based upon his 'refined' metrical analysis -