Typhoon Tip

mm, I wonder if the model might even get bumped up in those ratings based upon his 'refined' metrical analysis -

Just think... without humanity ...money doesn't exist - Ever consider that, just how much of a delusion it really is? It's a social construct that assigns value based purely upon perception - perception goes away... money has no meaning. That philosophical truism has always interested me.. Yet, it is purported that people have "tried their hand at aeronautics from the perch of their elevated office windows" over money - So what does that say about their value system - hm

Don't buy it ... That -30 plume emerges from the ether ...there's no real antecedent synoptics - probably an artifact of it's overly conserved curvature it tends to formulate going from D4.5 to 6 as a general rule, which it then ... well, good luck getting that on a D4 map

classic spring condition.. NWS sites are hung up at 54. Meanwhile, everyone is 61 over their back patios, driveways, and/or car dashboards when running out to the store... I don't doubt the accuracy of the ultra normalizing tech of NWS but it isn't accurate for the "nook settings" were people live. I mean, it's almost like those technologies remove the actual skin-contact temperature, which is an ultra microphysics thing..., in order to find out what the kinetic temperature is of the ambient air ... Heh, it would make it both correct and false at the same time. It's almost as dumb as Logan reporting "for Boston" in early summer when the flags are wobbling from the ENE out there while it's sweltering on the Commons.

Agreed ... I was brandishing this as 'not' in that sense, because - I guess - AFD's were trying to turn the fan up on this afternoon. But it's just not that windy here. Light breeze... this is like a 9.7 on the NAPE scale - in fact, it's really almost too mild to be nape. It's just f'n insane out there. I wish I didn't clock a 10K on the 'mill at the gym last night and saved for today. Course there's tomorrow. It's interesting that we should be good to go through Friday's misty cloud advances. Also, anyone notice just how rudely obtrusive and potent that cold shot is over the weekend?

Amazing the changes felt the instant we stem the flow out of Canada -

I personally am not sold that any 'apparent' cooling should be readily attributed to La Nina. We just experienced a robust sudden stratospheric warming event, that was also preceded by a separate ... ongoing negative Arctic Oscillation. The combination of those observed the AO to very deep standard deviations via different causal circuitry, which lasted through the vast majority times of the DJF period. The -AO is in fact inconsistent with La Nina longer termed climatology, which shows a moderate negative correlation coefficient relationship. That tends to argue the AO may be more the culprit - which incidentally... IS very consistent with solar minimum. I don't personally suspect the La Nina did much to the hemisphere, to be blunt. We out here in the every day Meteorological community have mused to frustration and humor and back, just how UN La Nina -like the hemispheric base state circulation maintained throughout. Having said that... It'll be interesting what those statistics look like as we press through the summer. The AO is vanquished... there could be a bounce-back as these mid latitudes lose the -AO conveyor. Also, not intending to discount the La Nina entirely ( equally foolish...), my impression is that mid latitudes of the N. Hemisphere ( to wit, has larger tracts of land-atmospheric coupling/ thermal regulation in the global heat budget ) ...those regions tend to dry out more so in La Nina; this would concomitantly favor temperature resulting warmer than than their 30-year climate averages ... In that sense, we could see this coupling into a correction of sorts. In short, these first 3 ... 5 months of the year may be the artifact of the AO cooling, but, the hemisphere has yet to realize the typical La Nina warmer than normal late spring and summer just yet. It may neutralize some of that "cooling" in the net from both AO relaxation(seasonal), and thus "allowing" ( in a sense ...) the La Nina climate to re-assert itself. As an aside: Also, climate is a meandering course. It doen't really slide straight up or down along epoch gradations like we see in neat orderly rendering for publications and so forth. Obviously we're savvy enough in here to know this "serrated" nature of rise and fall, then extended yet further along longer rise and fall derivatives... that are in turn also situated along longer ones that define vast distances of time... blah blah... This could be a 'down' motion in a slope that really won't deviate - no one in present company suggested otherwise, but... - from the longer term warming. I can see 'deniers' pouncing on least excuse imagined with this sort of observed behavior in the environment.

Lens interpretation ? haha... just bustin' balls a little but, that is the "Control" run that 'subjectively' tanks there... The mean (green), which by convention is more deterministic ... is not very convincing. Control runs to me are dubious? ... I admit to some ignorance as to their uses... but, those don't 'sound' like they use organic grid/initializations ( or necessarily static geophysics for that matter) to process for/in the virtual sense of projecting weather patterns. It sounds like a parameterize-able wet dream, versions for experimental destruction of man kind under the espouses of research for lab dork purposes... Which makes it utterly useless to deterministic everyday use, as it is allowing "what if" scenarios that are not in existence - necessarily. But boy I'll tell you... can you imagine "George001" setting his coffee down and rolling up his sleeves at the console of that "control" ?? Jesus, we'd have a high confidence comet impact scenario in no time.

Not sure what the recent pages of consist of but I am not buying the 00z suite ... Has anyone noticed that the models keep sloshing between seasons, 00z and 12z ? strikes me as though...I wouldn't be shocked if the 12s ...if not 12, 00z or 12z tomorrow etc, just yaw back toward a warmer appeals again.

Same here... Fields and yards are now exposed around my region of Mass... Just shard, melt-back mangled banks remain... Parking lots have homeless already sifting through the snow pile rubble leavings .. heh. Kidding but did I see that behavior once driving by some urban blight once and it stuck in my memory. It's really a completely different universe out side to that 8 day consistent tundral drain pattern we just endured. Shut that f'n faucet off already!! Ugh... and immediately, booinnng, .... we're over 50 ...yesterday was 39 here... We have, as of 10 to 10:30 am already reached recent MOS coverage high expectations around the region. It's 49 to 54 so yeah Sometimes 11 F of difference is really 50 degrees ....now is one of those times. Ha. Steroidal nape range in full affect - Anyway, the open fields may assist in busting MOS over the next couple of days -

My dream winter snows like crying hades from a week before thanks gig until about Feb 4 over - ... 70+ and geek flooding ... swing set islets

.... I think it's like you moved to great location for big winters ...*but* did so at the tail end of climate destruction's moving winters N ... probably you got Kevin's bald headed winter tendencies at that that latitude ... maybe 10 years. By then Kevin'll be DC'ing it. Then... the tipping point probably starts causing world wars over dwindling resources anyway and who'll have time to care - ... trope dystopian but pick one...

Jerry - you leaped into a conversation and didn't - clearly - know the history. It has nothing to do with you and your atlas ...

Won't be "nice" out though ...not with those numbers. 55 with 25 mph wind is big f.u. ...

Yeah I went to college at UML down here in the Merr. Valley... It was always April thru Mother's Day ...right in those three weeks...sometimes front, sometimes aft. But March is too soon for the Merrimack spring response per my experiences back then. I had to stop off and see the Mother's day flood in 2006 - incredible... Seeing the water move across the Pawtucket dam without barely an elevation change was eerie knowing what that normally should look like. Saco though... I canoed that with some college buddies a few years ago ... 2016, August. The water was really low. ... one or two points we had to exit boat and drag. I didn't think of that as main stemmer but we were also up near Fryeburg ...

heh... it's hand throwing frustration - happens every year around the last week of February when indices and operational runs do this.. that said, I do see what you meant earlier with 'warm' ish guidance. the gefs and eps raising eastern heights d-9 but like i said a while ago, folks should be on their toes through easter as a dope slap requirement

Mm .. I think the coastal plain of Maine where the deep layer vector is exiting ENE is pretty well situated to go above machine - just sayn' Not sure where you are ... but a WSW wind under 850 mb tapping +10 C nosing over central NE in the Euro ... comes d-slope across that area . I wonder ...does that send rivers like the Saco over their seasonal over-flow plains ... Probably gets the Merrimack triggered come to think of it... We'll see -

True .. but, from a psycho-babble perspective... If that happened, no one would give ratz azz if it was 70 a few times in March - just sayn' That's all that matters in here kid - ... people, and their drug. LOL

There is some precedence for that... Sometimes these early continental warm plumes will roll-out ...and end up there in a -NAO episode. The warmth transports up at mid and higher latitudes and then you get a transient blocking. I don't know about this year though - seems with La Nina footprint and fast flow lingering ... those may sort of 'ablate' that tendency too..

Hey so... I admit - I don't think I was a part of the 'Stein' origin - what does that mean exactly ?

I was asking earlier ...but it was bathed in sarcasm so probably ignored.. Anyway, what are the records from WV to ME for Thursday.. ? Might be worth monitoriing Not sure about Friday's fropa timing. If it holds off then that day too. The warm bombs we had in some of these March's since 2009 ( which is an alarming frequency frankly ...), were mid month on.. This is happening prior to the Ides so I am wondering if the record books are prone to 70+ ... Not sure if you guys make 70 up there...But I like Bradley CT ? forget it - they' put up a 78 with that look on Thursday.

You know ..I was thinking about this as onion layers ... offsetting anomalies, so to speak OR perhaps that's really what that is.. but, climate change modeling long predicted greater proficiency in rainfall as a global mean/increase ... because the PWAT content is hanging around in a warming world...etc... Rain in that context means anything falling from the sky produced by weather phenomenon - which includes snow. So hypothetically ..it's like we made out for better ambient potential, in a years that say 50 years ago would have been dryer of snow and rain - if given the same patterns/relative to era.

Dude, I was responding to Rays motif - you're turning into a petty squabble to refute a message you just don't like. who cares - jesus

Sort of .... I wouldn't even say this in hyperbole - in SNE. Until after Easter does that jest gather any weight - Not sure how old you are, but .. on March 28th, 1997, it was a Saturday. High based CU floated by on a raft of buoyant warmth under sun searing enough that the air shimmered at distances. High based CU = tall, warm boundary layer. It was 64 F at 1 pm...as I ambled across the bridge up there on University Ave that spans the Merrimack River. Girls laying out on blankets around the commons outside of dorm halls. Me not getting any of them.. the universe was at peace seemingly by god's decree. 2 days later we were under a winter storm warning, and 12 hours after that, Metrowest of Boston was under 20 to 36" of yard stick shock and awe because 'most of them knew winter was now done in SNE' before that happened. So yar ...you're probably being a lighthearted troll ... but just so I'm not being a hypocrite - I see reasons to be open to warmth ... But that does not preclude anomalies that really can't be assumed not possible around here. It's like a proverbial landmine getting us to April 15, even in the warmest of times. Hell, even 2012 had week of cold in there from a -NAO pulse.. Just didn't time with anything.

Missing the point -