Typhoon Tip

Yeah...instead of clouds at 54 F and an annoying wind that fakes people into thinking that's a warm ... it'll be 64 instead

Yup ... I don't buy it... I think this doesn't do shit in the cold air ... we'll see. I'll tell yah, the upshot is that it's still going to be 60+ from Sunday through at least Wednesday this next week. So even if this overcame all that synoptic limation the model is fighting against to get to these looks to happen ... the ensuing days almost make it tolerable.

Okay... but none of that translates to his ability to legislate a baseball organization - necessarily. It's a partial ownership, anyway...doesn't mean he's 'calling the shots' - even if that was a concern. And I'm not sure the subjective characterization of him is really warranted - I mean...people will have their immutable and undying opinions, and will believe them to the grave, and cannot be retrieved ... but, the guy has special programs he's founded, lots of them if one cares to look up ...that are quite fairly an expose' at the opposite of the asshole end of the spectrum to put it lightly. But whatever ...

Some agency or collection of public interesting backing org of some kind needs to threaten NCEP with a law suit for their present public access product for radar - Now that we are into the severe season - in a base line seasonal teleconnector that suggests a big tor production year ... their radar is operationally almost unusable. That is going to be a problem, when the previous version was at least updating to 5 minute intervals, and had enough resolution the storm hardened, weary folk new how to interpret it. They are doing that rad transition because the other technology was inconvenient? I dunno - what's the reason for "upgrading" to this piece of shit asshole recourse. In any case, it'll take a some little league team being sucked off the field I guess -

Why exactly would that be ?

Well hopefully no one's hopes and dreams were pinned to the 00z NAM, but leaving with 10 to 12" .. yet, waking up to only 1.5 additional pages to an unpinned thread ... preeety sure no one's were. As was stated yesterday when the 12z run attempted that sort of positive return/layout, the NAM has a NW and/or amplitude bias in those ~60+ hour frames. That 00z Euro and combination with the massive pancaked, barely a flurry in the air when the cold arrives 06Z NAM blend, pretty much closes the book on this system. Not just that...it's never been synoptically very well footed, frankly. The N/stream was "sort of" offering some better phased looks ...but it was 'fool's gold'. It really wasn't in total. It was coming in a soupcon of an aggressive look..(may have tricked some) but it was splitting... with the mid and N latitudes of the S/W mechanics shearing up ahead, while the S aspect post split was less than completely syncing in ... There may have been some weakly positive/constructive interference in that scope and scale, but the larger synoptic total was negative on balance. I mean this thing doesn't develop in the ocean...it's damped and minored out as it's leaving...and as such ( and I mentioned this too ..) the system is losing cyclonic integrity and is transforming into an ANA thing by the time the cold air works in. ANAs are typically too robust in QPF realization versus modeling .. so assuming this then becomes factor-able ...this whole thing has red herring genetics about it. Now watch... the 12z NAM will come roaring back - but if it does... put it this way - the stuff above is real. SO, if this system were to transpire more robustly, it would be the bigger anomaly getting that to happen given the above synoptic limitations, not so much the storm itself.

It may come S actually

No that’s what it says it has 1.4 inches total liquid equivalent with two intervals at 1.1 liquid equivalent at or less than freezing at every sigma - well rats bid

Wait a minute I got to be reading this wrong

The Nam gives Logan 11 inches of snow with a profile less than freezing at all levels

You gotta be f’n kidding me

It's also trended S and narrowed the impact corridor... just sayn' -

Yeah...I was into those radio talk platforms through the beef years of the Patriot's dynasty ... It seems sport radio in/around the SNE market hit a kind of boon -time when the Patriots came into domination. Zolak and this guy "Gresh" ( I think...) and one or two other personalities were all part of the Patriot post game shows of the 2003 - 2011 era ...and I used to be driving with too much in me, listening in for gloating purposes on the way home from games... But my job scenario was shaky then, and I was not as much a commuter in the regular sense until later... That changed in 2010 and I got into Felger & Mazz... I lost my job again in 2012 and had them on as background sound at home, television for close to a year before I started commuting again. But got sick of it because as 'mreaves' also said, achy-eared over hearing the same outrage over and over. Sometimes I could swear they were replaying tapes from the first hour around hour 3, too - right down to tonal inflection it sounded like the same 'cast. 'why am I listening to this again' ... When I went back to work I didn't listen but sporadic post some big win or whatever... Working from home now during the Pandemic I haven't listened once. I know exactly what they are going to say post every win or loss to within tolerance of accuracy anyway - their M.O. doesn't really change - and who cares about league soap-opera shit over salaries and who got arrest for whatever

Impressive but ...you know, I know you know this but that's common at elevation. Spring snow wallops the 5000+ out there, then the atmosphere is both thinner and the sun angle higher, and together it's gonzo in mere days or less. I bet that parking area is gone entirely by tomorrow or mid day the next barring any new snow. I suspect something similar though much smaller in total scale happens here Saturday -

I'm tellin' ya man... just a matter of time and we'll get a 70 F legit ambient temperature over a snow pack -

I think I need every bit of that 10" here in Ayer to end the season 'normal' - or within reasonability of that distinction. I'd like that... so that a "normal" winter is officially "not good enough" for those in the area that have turned this pass-time into a life-defining codependency complex lol

mm ...i might pull the trigger on a low confidence Watch and sort of bold/highlight it as likely to go down to Advisory pending more cycles. OH wait heh...is this still 4th period even. Actually don't do anything I guess for now accept model ogle

Why ... it's not a snow pattern ...it's an 'ugly' pattern - as in unilateral ass pounding, all preferences failed. actually hyperbole aside it could be just giga motions in the ensembles. It's just that that seasonal lag thing is real - that part has been taking place where we get these obnoxious asynchronous cold patterns in April and May... I'm sort of getting gun shy and weary that the muzzle's always pointed out our springs because of that seemingly growing dependable oddity

Not really relevant to us I suppose but man ...TX to eastern OK could be raked off the face of the planet by cyclic EF5 swarms in that look on D6 to 7

hmm... didn't realize this was happening but the American telecon layout is looking increasingly shitty as of late. Hadn't been checkin' But, modestly positive PNA by D10 with NAO slipping negative among most members could really turn that pattern ugly at our latitude/ geographic climo after next week's warm up. - may just be the seasonal lag coming back to destroy orchard crops with snow flurries in May again and again as the new paradigm because CC is not happening ... weeeee.

This is why - really - I'm willing to wait on the Euro frankly .. I mean, as a baser deterministic forecasting philosophy - duh - we don't auto 86 any solution... It's a matter of gradation of inclusion to put some weird syllables to it .. Like, .01% ICON ...hahahaha Anyway, that agreement is giving this a kind of 'sneak up and bite' appeal to it..and though what I mentioned off the Euro is factually and empirically correct, it still is not 100% infallible - of course not. Hopefully, we get no agreement at any point leading

well we'll see - If the Euro arrives and there's some EPS movement too - ...watches go up.

That's very baroclinic

I honestly - and I'm not merely saying this because of personal druthers to sans winter at this time of year, either - don't trust anything that particular model does with it's stalking obsessive behavior with the N/stream and bias low heights anywhere on the N side of jet streams. It's coherently biased in that aspect - particularly egregious in spring... That model has done this, as far as I can tell, every spring season since it became 'G' 'F' and 'S' , where by the time it is out to the mid range+ it has slipped the thermal input that the season forces into the initialization and collapses back to January at least excuse imagined.

Yeah...that GFS run is DEFINITELY a heftier signal than an ANA profile... lol.. I don't know, the 00z Euro is inside of 4 days - despite any populous derision of it's skill it is still the best model out there in that range. I'd like to see the 12z because the 00z run was nuisance by comparison to the GFS for frozen. Actually, if it comes in as robust as the GFS ...it would be unusual for it to correct like that as it is ... Let's see what it does -