Typhoon Tip

mm nah ...that spoke of S/W shrapnel isn't any kind of silver bullet in my mind to be blunt. A strong more mechanically usurping presence with the main gig, as in ..all along, would have damped that out - that's sort of emerging because it can in that sense... This thing is too weak... It always was... We were focused on conceptual circumstance too much so, and didn't consider the finer Meteorological analytics ... it is what it is. Sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets you. Oops - ... or at least, for some of us we ignored the factor-ability ... NAO management didn't help.. I think there's like a "Miller A NAO" and "MIller B NAO" ... borrowing the poor schmucks name lol. The former is what happens when you have a fast careening flow at mid latitude from Japan to Chicago/DCA.. and then it quickly abates or significantly stems... There's like a "latent heat" slosh back in the hemispheric scales ..that we observe as a height eruption. It's ephemeral though ..it surges in and the decays.. We can see this last 40 days as kind of an anecdotal suggestion of proof - though it is a one time-lagged circumstance granted. But, we got cold a month ago... the flow was fast. We even ginned up a decent snow even that was a CSI juggernaut from NYS to CNE in a narrow band... Then, the flow relaxed, ..really anti perpetuity to the longer term trend ...and the NAO emerges ... Now, looking ahead in the models, the NAO is actually significantly deconstructed by even D7 now...and by D10... the operational Euro and GFS ... sort of argue it's gone.. Or significantly neutralized. But what is also happening? The flow is speeding up again. Hell..the extended GFS is back at it with 140 knot L/W wind ambience by 300+ hours .. la la range or not, since we've suffered winters like that for years now, heh prolly has legs. The other type of NAO seems to be fashioned top--> down, and is more connected to stratospheric vortex disruption events. Best example is February 2006 ... preceded in early January that year by a massive SSW and downwelling propagation event ... a latter circumstance routinely bouncing off skulls that use SSWs, which is an annoyance for another time. 20 days later, boom! What's interesting also is that the flow around that form of NAO stayed fast that year.. It was more " resistant" I suppose ... to the onslaught of a faster hemisphere. So, I think in the typology of the NAO ... one has more predictive skill than the other - the one that is polished and anchored by the total hemisphere ( top down ) may be accompanied by better performance. Contrasting, this nebular stuff.. it's like looking at the eddy whirls in a simmering pan on the stove, and trying to figure where all those are destined ... Makes sense, when entropy is large, the models suck -

As far as folks interpretation of the models ... I mentioned this last week; we are in sort of 'uncharted territory' for modeling performance in a bona fide -NAO ...particularly if/when the blocking influence is situated over the western limb, where it is more exerting in terms of wave spacing ..etc. I think that gives a little bit of a pass here - give it a week to marinade and cool off anger ... and perhaps when in the throws of a new potential, folks may be willing to look at this that way. The last 10 years of modeling, a time in which there have been - I think - three product migrations in both the ECMWF and GEFs orgs... and even in the GGEM ... Hell, they've created a Franken-model called the "NAVGEM" in that span - a tool that baffles the mind as to what in the hell they were after... Is there a plan for that? We can assume the engineering arm of NCEP is not neolithically incompetent. They must perform 'pattern specific' regression analysis/testing with 500,000,000 operation instruments... But ya never know. Still ...I don't find it a mere coincidence that this 'nebular' sort of break-down of the erstwhile stretched R-wave rage/velocity regime, along with a spring-like bookended NAO, happen and suddenly the models suck perhaps worse than the great white hurricane busts of the 1980s. Not an accident.. Separate observation and study? It occurs to me, this NAO may have originated as a 'slosh back' from a velocity suspension at hemispheric scope. Same or similar, it reminds me of those rage streamed winters that took place in 2018 /// 2017 /// 2019 and so forth, when those seasonal jet relented as ending, the NAO did the same thing then.. Only this one is happening now ... I wonder if this fast flows that specifically enter breakdown, can be statistically lag correlated to all -NAO emergence ? Fascinating study..

I think we're too focused on idealized shapes and configurations ... The z-coordinate is killing this entire aspect... It's just not deep enough - the mid troposphere isn't cold enough. The heights are too shallow in that trough ... 542 DM until it coalesces E of the BM with a bunch of v-junk, and barely beneath 540 ...when the surrounding medium is only 552 is simply not enough gradient to get this thing to "spin" faster, drill sooner, anchor quicker, ... and bring the fuller spectrum of cyclogenic output - including ...heavier snow. As a result, we get a middling low ... probably mid way up the cyclone spectrum for our climo/ West Atl Basin which yeah...if it 'could have' detonated and organized sooner by way of better forcing, we probably get a higher impact 9:1 paste bomb. I agree with you though that there's probably going to be a stripe of something going on along the wind tunnel as it passes thru - I think there's room for error assumption there, but we'll see. So not a 100 loss - as you mention ... vorticity trajectory and associated wind maxima therein is/are ...moving along a decent climate position .. .at least through 24 hours... Scott had also mentioned that the wind max/trough morphology wasn't "curling" soon enough upon reaching our longitude - I suspect that observation is connected to the paltry feebleness of this over all thing, too. If this thing was more mechanically powerful, it would roll out "tendency" - if not observable - lead S/W ridging...which would act in concert with the emerging NAO aspect to slow this whole thing down sooner, and anchor a stronger system... It's too shallow..too weak to get this down. You know... I find a subtle irony in this... We have been at a high premium for years YEARS really, to get a real -NAO look established... a time spent in a fast progressive rage much of the time... We finally get the NAO or NOA prone atmosphere and it goes too far the other way. The Euro's D7-10 really ...I mean, it's not likely to verify of course.. but, it does nicely demo a nebular pattern that is franly almost impossible to discern the R-wave nodes ... We can't run a deterministic solution off that either. Replaced one asshole pattern with another...and we can't seem to find the happy guy in the middle - lol Kidding but seriously tho - I don't have any faith on the Jan 9-12th period at this point. The 00z guidance continue to erode the NAO down to neutral in the operational runs, and the that flow is till looking rather nebular and non structurally deterministic ... I'm not really sure where this is heading frankly - ... I'm bummed to be brutally honest.. .because I thought about much of above all week but didn't have the balls to believe it would k'o this ordeal. I relied to much on the larger picture. I feel pretty confident that the model handling of this also struggled with it..interesting.

Well I’m out. still see this as a 3/8ths maybe 1/2 percentile cyclone ... relative to our cyclone climo. But my snow mmm might reduce but holding out till morning.

James… Even if the GFS low ...captures and backs in it’s too weak it’s dynamics have been maximized. All it’s going to be bringing with it is likely orb sun a few flakes in the air and a nasty wind. If the whole deep layer structure gets more intense and has better wind Max whirling around it might enhance things further that way ...but even then when storms are maxed out and they retrograde they don’t tend to bring heavy action with them.

Also retrograding weaker lows usually don’t bring heavy QPF ...

What the f are you talking about. Quit evading the point… 1/10 is less than 3 inches that’s the point nothing else people are wanting the siding with a big one not the little one there is no other point that is the attitude. Stop it As far as the NAM ...for the record I don’t think so but that wasn’t the original point

I still think it’s worth it, Will, to evaluate the domain spaces of that, and compared it to those other meso models; because really that smacks to me as though the other models are not feeling the weight or pushback from the wave compression off the NAO ‘slowing’/’blocking

At the core of it all is an unhealthy emotionally charged/guided decision circuitry ... Its a devotion to this engagement - I’ll give you that much LOL

The fact that nobody “hedged” bets on the lower cycle solution for QPF amounts ....is the attitude

In most settings sure but this is a unique one… And the euro like I said if you go back a ways ( probably missed the post) has been showing poor continuity just the same as the others ...having said all that I think you’re right ... more likely be correct, but I wasn’t really specifically addressing that likelihood ... I was talking about the attitude - whatever model has the biggest impact is the one that people start defending.

Does the NAM’s domain space actually include the NAO…? I think it might overlap a little bit of the western limb - not abundantly sure frankly but I think it actually truncates. It’s just a hypothesis I’m wondering if maybe the meso models are just not seeing the full exertion from downstream or the full manifold of the wave length compression

It’s the attitude. Wantonly trying to justify 3 inches of QPF in lieu of the model that says .01 is not the right attitude. And it shows a bias. That bias leads to the grousing and bullshit that goes on after these things failing/ when they do I’m sorry it does - long years of experience ...

Say what you guys want it sounds like rationalizing and spinning and justifying reasons to go with 3” over .01” Having provided zero substantive analysis as to why the 01 could possibly be true but you cannot say for certain that it’s not - look I’m just trying to protect you’z guises emotional states when this doesn’t happen or something stupid like that and you start throwing hands and acting all pissy ... blaming this that and the other thing hey it’s your life

Welll ... in principle the Euro is demonstrating questionable continuity; whether its wobbles are better for the cinema interest or not ... it’s still shaky continuity. That ICON model trended west by a goodly amount in the 18z run .. I mean they’re all still doing that I have not seen a single guidance type really show the same for very long

I guess I must have a differing opinion about the last 24 hours of guidance blend, re the larger/super synoptic hemisphere than y'all - it's all good.. But I see a tendency here to fug -around with the blocking ( AO and NAO correct up entering the 2nd week), while the mid latitude flow is speeding up the dailies/operational versions -anew- between Hawai'i and California... That's all code for the previous p.o.s. speed pattern I realize the snow storm a couple weeks ago in Dec was actually in that faster regime - so that also points out factually that it's not a death sentence to winter necessarily either. That said, I don't find the fast atmospheric paradigm as being inherently favoring the type of stuff the cinema weather charter is seeking in this particular social media...that's all.

Heh... I dunno - I never like it when products cookie-cutter around the land masses like that. We'll see but that appeals as though the model physics are over sensitive to the BL variance between the ocean and land ...and is augmenting at the interface. Not the same thing even as a CF ... "Maybe" more like fluidity deformation because air over land moves slower than the over water, so the BL ends up slightly taller and acts like a oreographic lift/axis... speculation, but I see that kind of thing from sensitive hyper discrete models too often. I suppose it could happen -

I don't know if that's entirely true ... you're making an assumption that groups people together, without knowing them ... My biggest problem is that I go to fast, and leave out prepositions here, or type words like 'now' when I meant 'not' ... or, jump to the next sentence before finishing... throwing off the reader. I then have to run back along text and fix shit all the damn time - those cause distractions that don't lend to reading so, ... oh well Keep in mind, also - I'm trying for discussion and opinion sharing among other Meteorologists - they know that sort of 'vernacular' just fine.

oh ... talk about a dyslexic break - the word is 'isohypsic' Wasn't aware I was typing it that other way... Oops sorry. But, ...lol, my guess is that word also doesn't mean much to people.

Lol... know what? I'm already f'n sick of that damn thing - ...

oh god...what did I say - look man ... I was doin' other shit today and thought oh yeah... Open web --> wish I did not open up the web. I don't think I'm making anything up when looking at this shit - sucks asshole for storm/winter drama seekers. I think what happens is ...the tenor over does it in either direction as part of crowd physics. It's human... don't sweat it. But, the fervor does tend to out pace the indicators, where as I tend to ignore that sort of thing. It's just in my nature ...so, it may seem like I'm 'trying' to compensate for a mood or something, but I'm pretty much consistently being honest as much as I can.. If it fits the tenor of the hour, it fits... if it doesn't ... oops

Not a good look for Jan 8-12th either... Two days ago I admit I saw some alarming signals in there for either a top tier potential ... maybe an aggregated series but wow! The 240 hour Euro and GFS ... eradicate the NAO... and show signs of speeding the flow back up again. Interestingly ... the CPC tele's sort of relfect that ... with AO/NAO recoveries going on out toward the end. Better hope the Pac reorients or heh - doesn't mean winter's over... no, just that said "alarming signals" .... are no longer there. hahaha... Maybe we'll see them come back... maybe this opens the door to a whole new paradigm of delivery ... I can make one prediction that is above the 90th percentile accurate ... if this two-step head game goes on ... I predict I am going to start fantasizing for not only another 80 F week in mid February ...this time, I want the NAO to go f- itself in March. Leaves us the hell alone. That way we can just commit to an early spring/warm season and finally cash-in on GW in a meaningful way around here... lol

Well.. ( ha ) it's not totally over ... I mean, we still have to actually get thru January 4 ...so we'll see - It's just the 'vicissitudes' - 'nother fun word - of the last 24 hours that are unfortunate of the models, seems like those could be related to this thing just being weak and not having enough power to situate itself in space and time. More I think about it... we really have been seeing things get corrected weaker passing from late mid ranges into nearer terms, and it sort of fits this... The earlier runs had more impact ... the system corrects subtly weaker inside of 72 hours...out she goes.

Well ... I'm not going to sugarcoat it, or try to spin it or rationalize it, the last 24 hours of runs are frustrating for winter drama/storm enthusiasts ( ...which is really more like 'model cinema enthusiasts' .. ) I'm sort of kicking myself for not bringing this up two days ago - kind of obvious... I think I might have mentioned it (certainly thought about it) but I just didn't bother to emphasize the aspect. We're lacking isohypsic gradient ... when for 10 years, we had way too much of it! ..Ironically, but these 500 mb charted features are just not deep enough. They are shallow by January climatology. You're talking closed or quasi closed(ing) features that are 540+ DM dz ... I've seen June troughs that deep wooo! That's indicative of a mild 500 mb (relative to both season and what's going on around them).. The 500 mb wind velocities reflect that, circuitously wending around said features on the order of 50 .. 80 kts. Just a month ago, the ambient was almost twice that! Forget the S/W... Anyway, these S/W and features are lacking mechanical power. See, re this 1/4 system in the foreground ...it's not helping its track positions.. You get a torsional feedback that resists its 'drift momentum' from more strength, because deeper anchors sooner. This thing is paltry ...it's closing one isohypses... and the associated sfc low is a terrifying 996 mbs...so yeah.. it's drifting out. The other aspect is just giga motions associated with the NAO handling in the models. Nuances in the total structure of the NAO as it blossoms its block over the western limb is a bit shaky in the last 24 hours. The GFS runs are hem-hawing and trying to make it a S based NAO ... not sure that has the same "slowing" kinematic influence on this 1/4 thing. The Euro still has it more D. Str. however ..and yet it still sends this thing east into taunt distances.. I think really we could benefit from a stronger input to help anchor this sooner. That was more suggestive four days ago ... but, since... You know, we've been consummately correcting late mid range systems less amplified as they near in time - maybe remember that.

Late to the pahty this day ...but, mm .. .I didn't really ever see this as having "ferocious CCB" - maybe you're just being expressive. I'll get caught up - ... but firstly, all models sucked donkey D since 12z yesterday ... just about as good of a red flag as anything you yourself were opining a couple days ago. .. Secondly, I've thought all along that this was a like a 1/3 to 3/8ths percentile low by our cyclone climate standards ... but what it did bring to the table as its 'special talent' was that it has higher impact snow type. You know.. .lay down 8" of 9::1 over a large area ...that's bit of a hassle. Plus, the duration was also a wild card. Both appear in jeopardy of fading E as I am sure the next 5 pages of this thread will probably evince LOL