Typhoon Tip

Yes...

Noted ... hinted above, I do wonder if the NAVGEM/GGEM/GFS are all to polar biased in the 48 to 96 hour range. Anything after that ~ range becomes academically unavailable to interest farther west ( most likely...)

The Sci Fi author in me would incline to imagine that 'near miss' capture there is an artifact of the GFS having too much beta-motion in the mid range - such that by the time it interacts with the cutting/cutoff low it's already gained to much latitude, and is able to partially escape. good sci fi errs on the side of plausibility - It's all way out there so, perhaps the best sci fi authors at this time are in fact the AI/ behind the modeling... heh. The Euro did not have as much polarward drag on its track, notable ... if still la la range. I just... I don't like very good set ups on D8 anything. It meas the only options are less ideal.

The 00z Euro ( operational ...) is almost 90th percentile ( eye-balling method ..) for concern along the EC. The confluence passing into the Maritimes, evidenced in the 500 mb synoptic evolution, is all indirectly tied to a -d(NAO), which in theory ...blocks TCs from passing seaward once they've succeeded the 'key slot' climo (60 naut mi N of PR). More over, the situation of a closed 500 mb trough over WV... mm, just needs another contour ( but may be enough ); but as is, the differential in heights between it, and NE of Bermuda, guides the track extrapolation of that hurricane pretty comfortably to a position somewhere between ROA, VA and the 70th longitude line by imagining, a-priori, a day 11 .. 13 circumstance. Unfortunately ... ( or fortunately, depending upon one's personal approach to this stuff ) that day 11 (bold) makes much of this less than entirely useful to any deterministic forecasting. But it sure is interesting to look at!

If one is a morally responsible mentality storm enthusiast ( heh ...) you should prefer the southern envelope of those solutions in this graphic above. Those are through the "key slot" climo. The ones along and polar side of that thick, black mean track, as history has shown, those tracks slope off pretty quickly, as not going on to denuding life and structure off of LI and sending roofing material, pine bows and power lines to Montreal...

Well boo- yah .... for a 100 years over due. But, such is progress -

Man..you're lucky to embrace and get to experience that jeaous bro - ...although I'm sure you'll be recording the Red Sox playoff run lol

God you guys... let it go LOL hey take a look at this GGEM solution the tropics... holy conduit - something tells me if this comes to be the set up in 198 hours, media might be taking an interest -

I was kind of hoping that cane out there would get sucked into that NYC ender -

OH that's cool dude! where in ? Any chance to see the wild life... you could be very lucky.

On Sep 20 ? I guess ... I saw some climate records but it seems pretty rare to me to be in the 90s after .. circa Sep 15 but whatever - I get the gist.. Not that my opinion matters much ... but summer's back broke back in late August. What's happening since, however, is obfuscating factors. We are running positive height anomalies after the fact. Non-hydrostatic heights still running warm everywhere, muting troughs in the models heading into shorter terms... The look, and that behavior, don't spin very back breaky - because based upon linear climate... they aren't. We were 84 to 88 in three of the last February and/or Marches over the last 5 years, with 558 to 564 thickness.. It playing its self out in both ways. It's not allowing warm days, without cooling the hemisphere yet ( much ). Oh it will ... cool that is. But a day like today, we're getting cool weather, relative to heights. Sorry , we are. If it matters, we have to think of this crap in relative terms: 20 years ago, this is not broke when it's 79/69... Nor when looking at the 'hydrostatic' ( actual thickness), being near 570 for 3 or 4 consecutive days, that can't be very convincingly justified. If the sun came out, it would be 84/70 today.... we probably would not be conditioned to even engage this discussion - even though the back is broke either way. We just happened to mask that with SE flow ... heah. It's over relative to this year's temperature patterning and ability to launch. But it's kind of getting blurred

What ? ... curious -

i thought it was the GFS frankly ... It really never had "Peter out" more than just that - petering out - other that two model cycles. but, I don't have to be right about that either. lol. I just seem to recall the GFS loops at Fl State's only having Pete really for two runs, last week, ..one was near miss, too. I think tho to be fair - imho - the models in general did well.

True ... but, with the exception of what it means to snow vs liquid contentions, "noted"

oh ..okay, so already having the bug discussion. seriously though - this mosquito aspect is very seasonally late for those assholes

So when is the "Kill the bugs" aspect of this thread's title going to happen ? jesus fuggin christ. This is the latest in any calendar year I can recall having this many problems with this many mosquitoes... unrelenting. I open my car door ... dive in, slam it behind me as quickly and expeditiously as possible without injury ... 4 or 5 darting at the windshield. They're getting in the house just because my storm door has that stupid lag that slows the gate and they've "learned" to time it.

Quick cautionary for using the QBO: The last 5 .. 7 years have seen some remarkable occurrences wrt the QBO. There were anomalies never before witnessed along recorded/observational history. The wind direction/momentum in the respective sigma levels uncoupled, with differential levels demonstrating wind reversal, unexpectedly mid phase. Here we ago again with another institutionally reliant field teleconnector falling out of whack, for one. But, it may be worth it to note, as it may (may not) mean anything - lol. This from "Science Daily" may serve as an entry/primer on the occurrence and some science after the fact: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/09/160908151118.htm This article focuses on the 2015/2016 winter event ( also echoed in the AMS journal entry, "Dynamics of the Disrupted 2015/16 Quasi-Biennial Oscillation" ), but I'm "pretty sure" there was another either last year or the year before? either way - Personal thought: These source's cause identity seems to be related to R-wave dispersion flowing backward into the tropical latitudes...imposing that momentum with enough inertia to cause the transient break downs. I almost think of it metaphorically as a wave strong enough to bounces off the far end of a pool with enough momentum to come back... It may not mean much more than a very powerful polar jet - which by theory and convention, "power" in that context means it is transporting huge wave kinematics - so perhaps that that fits so to speak. But, it may mean more than that, too. If there are competing forces emerging that are capable of disrupting the QBO periodicity, which by function and form is a global phenomenon, it seems intuitive to ponder whether there are other ( perhaps "emergent" newer climate change motivators ) that should be considered. What in the f those are... we call upon Science Fiction writers. I of course have ideas - LOL

Great ...all they need then would be to clean up the shit stained turpitude down on the streets -

You should be able to eat that once in a while tho. it’s all about recovery time. Layering is bad.

Agree with Kevin in working out though. Strenuous -but not injury - maxed out for 45 min, 5 a week, and your body creates its own/elevates HDL

You need to give up booze, too. Especially as you get older. three stiff gin n tonics can f up your bad lipid counts for three days.

Let’s begin with a cessation in the use of the word ‘blizzard’ … jesus christ

There’s an article floating about the mediasphere re China halting coal in capitulating to CC concerns/international pressure.

Was cool and foggy at dawn here ... but sat revealed it was a Nashoba Valley phenomenon, as it took on the neuro fibrous look.. still, it was autumnal in vibe. Now, full summer. Late high .. we're squeezing in on 75/63 so, may not be "July" but summery.

Lol, was just thinking that ... how it seems really quite lovely for suckin' one up, but there's no prom date -