Typhoon Tip

You know... so long as this "pattern" ( ..mockery) is what it is, I hope that D 10 operational Euro depiction of COL atmosphere under ridging at +4 C at 850 goes ahead and verifies... ( as interesting aside, is a 'lack' of a pattern a pattern in itself ?? ...that extended Euro has 0 identifiable R-wave ownership - not sure I have ever seen a pure nebularity in January before... another curious little example of how GW doesn't appeal to anyone because it is like hypertension: silent stalker ) Yeah yeah...here comes the pettiness to remind of low sun-angle this, and short day length that... But, excluding those bargaining for 'avoidance' tactics for the moment, with no snow on the ground and a multi-day rotted or even absent polar air mass, that's prooooobably a pretty dam delicious 56 F high ... In light winds, even the tepid suns of January will be inspirational - for those of us not in fact saddled in life with -(S.A.D.) variant disorders ...hahaha... Just kidding but it is actually a real, recognized affliction ...it's just that it affects a smaller percentage of people... It's literally called "negative SAD" ...and those that have this feel a similar experience in spring and summer that the majority experiences in autumn and winter. Anyway, I can swap out my passions on a dime and just knowing how nice that weather is, it'll be nice .. What I really, reeeeeally pray to the remorseless god for ( that's code for 'good luck getting this prayer answered in kind') is that we don't sans winter in lieu of flurries on Memorial day.. .I think this last year was four consecutive stolen springs... I mean, yeah ...spring warm in New England is a fool's expectation anyway, of course.. But snowing in May like it's 'normalcy' is beyond the pail. Made horrifically worse when it's 70 + in February long enough to fatten buds

This was always predicated on the idea of lower polar wedging and removing that, we'd be skunked - well... it's 2020 !! The 'never really did' - fine... The thread was 'light to moderate' ..others like to spin things up perhaps. I don't know who said what.. .but, these bolded pieces are completely fair to be honest. There were in fact better indications of those now missing features you mention - even in the early Euro runs, semblances of meso circulations.. better delays of the high. that's the way it looked like 4 days back... heh. Anyway, it was a worth journey .. It started evolving toward less after the fact. As it stands now ... no argument moving forward.

Yeah ... my take on this this morning is that the entire banded region of impact specifics have shifted some 100 mi N of when this thread began... But, there's probably going to be some subjective and/or imby-ism ... Most places will see a flake or two.. hear some pings... and may glaze. It'll be a matter of how long one spends in along that spectrum - less S, ...longer N.. I just have difficulty believing the Euro will be "that" wrong with the general layout ... not at this range, and the above is still satisfied in a Euro evolution. It can bust - sure... But, we have no crystal ball and the gamble of least regret, it is just too inconsistent with the Euro's verification to see that happening so we wait so that cacklers can claim the Euro is never as good as used to be in the off chance that it proves not to actually be a conduit for the thoughts of god - ... So, bearing that in mind - and in no small part ( for me ..), the 06z GFS took a pretty significant step toward the Euro's timing/placement re the high up up N of Maine ... I really see this as a quicker transition - save for the valleys ... which may hold out a bit longer for cold puddling. You folks up your way will concomitantly take longer to move through your rendition of this ultimately 'scrape-by' event to 'feel' like this winter isn't really fool's errand - lol

It’s technically still 2020 lol

Cold air always wins when tuck jets are draining off a latitude top heavy PP ... don’t forget that and modulate with that in mind. 00z GFS hesitates +PP departure around 84-96 hrs. Hard to say if that’s just modeling noise but this is a very sensitive situation and moving that high backward relative to the modeling progression even a little bit can have significant sensible impacts when we’re dealing with whether it’s a 35° cold rain or 31.4 glazing in the Interior Southern New England. In short .. new run does little to increase confidence in quicker warming onset Also it is true that the ballast of this event appears to be NYD presently but staying the title in the off chance the lead boundary situates and thus initiate modest isen. lift sooner.

And honestly ... as a more formal update to the progress of all this... It's changed since this thread started - very glad I left matters at 50% confidence/coverage for southern areas ... I'm not certain at this point either way, if the GFS isn't just attempting to move toward the Euro with the timing/placement of crucial +PP up N and moving E of Maine ...without that, we are sunk for substantive impact... And this will transition rather quickly in that correction. Getting into a ice/mix S and mix snow N was always predicated on that key factor, ...so of course, we then summarily fiddling with f'ing that part of it right up good and proper -par for the course. But we'll see... My experience tho is that once these polar highs start accelerating in the guidance they don't tend to move back west in future cycles ... The entire morphology aloft is differentiating toward something different too... The southern aspect has not gone so far west it is hard to figure what kind of cyclonic model it really fits into. It's almost nothing - or unique... It's merging over SD with something of new Pac arrival ( this fast flow is absolutely killing our winter ... miracle we had that snow storm a couple weeks back)... and if that continues to go that direction ...we could conceivable wash out the cyclone from the charts end up with a fropa while the Rockies build the cap depths. ... I don't think so but there are other visualization certainly plausible... Like to see the GFS back off the west track with S/stream... and see the Euro slow the exit of the lead polar wedging...

I posted too long for anyone to read about the AO last hour or whenever that was ... but, in shorter I was dancing around the notion that a strong and deeply D(suppressing)/DT AO may lead the subordinate WPO-EPO and NAO responses... We'll see. But the CPC seems to have corrected the aspect I was bitching about the other day, and with curves seemingly back on line now as of last night... blah blah. But upon doing so, the concerted negative AO is whopper ... It's hard to believe that could verify that way and have the operational runs keep doing what they are doing - something has to give here because the AO is still a part of the Earth's total atmosphere and it shared domain space (geometrically) with those latter three.

Ice ?

I know you've been pushing this event ... this 'follow up' thing ... it's all good - but it's not really only indirectly related to this thread, which was specific to the NYE and Day time frame. Just sayin' I will say though, that this is following awfully close in space, so it may be a bit dynamics starved ...

Ugly... the pattern is ugly squared... This pattern and this thing ...it's like growing up rural in town of 12,400 people, and only seeing the same girls and so you think that one is so precious ... until you go to Frisco or LA or NYC and see women

I'm not sure what my opinion of V16 is ... I've heard some floated rumors that it's verification/scoring is besting the current operational variant - as well as other models too.. But where? What sigma level/metrics ?? ...I mean, is through the whole troposphere ...? or just in the 500 mb ongoing cinema - I will say I like the 12z V16's entrenched cold look as being more realistic for just knowing how cold air is heavier and any positive soundings will tend to stay that way - duh... That looks like brief snow to bee-bees and glazing in interior SNE probably down into N CT ... and looking at the meso-beta low down there near CHH/Cape.. combined with a clear dam in the PP NW of there.. .that thing is going to end that way, too - period. Seems we go through this doubt shit every time this sets up ... It's really no different in/when wondering if that BD in April is actually going to come down and bargaining all these rationalities why it won't - how does that end for you ? But ...as I said last hour.. if the high moves off more so than these GFS members have it... that's a different ball game

The AO did correct at last ...last night's run completely flipped. The "gape" that had opened up between the verification curve wrt the on-going prognostics has rather abruptly corrected. Hard to know/say what/why that happened ... but the two are eye-balling a more actually correlation coefficients ...which prior for a week running they had gone astray. That "might" offer some confidence back in using the damn thing .. the gap before really rattled its usage to non usable frankly... It was over as much as 2SD parted ways and increasing. Right now the the verification curve has demonstrated so much instantaneous correction ( for a single cycle!) that it has to have been some sort of mass-field reset - it literally repositioned the curve 2.5 SD almost straight down and knowing where this set as of yesterday morning... That appears 'less than organically motivated' - Either way, now the prognostic curve and the verification curve are descending... together ... big time! I find it interesting also that as this correction took place, we are also seeing less 'mop ended' discord among the members entering week two. So in short ..we suddenly "seem" to have a legit mightily suppressed AO coming from the GEFs .. Now that that's been taken care of... we still have the unusual circumstance of high velocities around the periphery of the ambient PV... When the AO drops negative, typically the PV relaxes both velocity and latitude... This "pancaking" of the PV ... is unstable geometrically with the curvature-linear planet space so the flow buckles.. .and in the polarward parts become ridge nodes, while the equatorial dips become conveyors for both cold delivery to mid latitudes, but storm traffic increases. The problem is that the velocities being high ... offsets those buckling tendencies - it's figuratively as though the PV is just large, but not weak. All this means pattern change - ...to what... Hard to guess because of the velocity skewing the climate model. I guess go with something that correlates more so than less, with -AO... I would imagine that (WPO-EPO)/NP and the NAO all may begin to exert more negative...but I suspect the higher velocity is impinging on those domain spaces and preventing curvature to take over ( the MJO is in destructive interference with the AO ... which is the anti correlated state - but, I don't think the MJO is really even propagating/forcing in expanded HC as readily as it use to; supposition ) The NAO is neggie - btw... But as Will pointed out, it's useless being so far E. However, the AO being perhaps "legitimately" negative and appearing to descend in concert with the member mean ( GEFs..) this is generally more favorable for retrograde - so "maybe" the NAO modulates west given time ..if not diminishes then rematerializes as so.

If we lose the high pressure to the N .. game over. It's a bit unusual to be 4.5 days out and still needing to iron out the larger scaled synoptic/governing features, but such is life in a fast and flat furious Pac dominated flow. I mean, relaying waves off the open expanse of the assimilated lands of dragons and wizards and in a velocity rich hemisphere, the shortening of the typical 3-day window is reducing to just 2 days to make up one's mind. Lord! ...thank that agency for the better assimilation techniques or this would be bad night at Vegas But, this GFS run is moving the erstwhile high pressure that was N of Maine on guidance yesterday, more to NE of Maine by early Friday, ...and we'll still probably have generated a tuck jet/on-going from the present run's configuration, but any more longitude with that +PP and said jet starts weakening and we go the in situ route and use up cold fast. Thing is... it's still unusual for lows to defeat planetary jet constructs/confluence across S-SE Canada... and that is what this is doing.. It's phasing the roll-out S/W ridging from the vestigial S /stream as it rides up the ridge, with the NVA/ ... and that's like engineering how to do the unlikely - f'n model.. .I swear sometimes I wonder if the modelers purposefully parameterize the GFS to run and prove quantum mechanic outre realm of duality -

Physics/micro-physical process of phase transition heat release will affix an initially icing scenario toward 32 and change like Will described. Icing events eat their set ups, and when the cold is gone...the icing stops - heh.. true though. They use up their own cold. It's simply a matter of how much cold vs the mass of phase transition, determines the length of icing post the initial condition. What makes protracted icing scenarios earn their coveted "storm" merit badges ( lol ..), is adding sufficiently thermodynamic cooling to the column to offset latent heat. There are two types of icing events - one is in situ, which is what the self-destruction model is above ... The others are dangerous because their gestation revolves around at the planetary wave changes. Will and Eric ( or is it Chris ..can't remember Oceanwx name) hinted at this when they described the 'pulse' or waves of synoptic light to moderate fall rates - that's basically a manifestation of a "pattern" in place that is just ripping separate events through it ...each one is being instructed by said pattern as an overrunning scenario. And ... yup, while all that is happening, it helps wanton malificent storm monger's hopes and dreams to not have the fall rate exceed the accretion rate, or they'll watch a lot of their "ice" fail to ruin the lives they are hoping to see ruined... ( ) . The big ice storm in Orh, 2007 - man the stars actually protected the region as much as delivered that entertaining event, because given what fell in that beast ... I'm willing to bet 2/3rds failed to rime. If that thing had been spread out across three nights and 1 F colder, we'd still be rewiring their infrastructure. I think the 1926 New England ice storm was a unique one, as it was both in situ, but also had large scale features/cold offset arriving ...such as building surface high under the rim of an initially liquid coastal storm - just from the stuff I read. It was like a wet snow to cold rain to icing Nor'easter -

We may be on the verge of more total systemic morphology -type changes ( ...like the CMC's 00z take on matters by et al ) that will emerge as we press thru these next 2 .. 3 cycles. Supposition so..tfwiw, but this flat fast yet highly energetic flow coming off the Pacific is notoriously ( over generations past .. ) problematic for model handling features in space and time. There have been advancements and gap control techniques that are proven useful, ...however, I find it interesting nonetheless that the 00z begins to nose Nino like insert off the Pacific on the 00z intake and the CMC does this. What that guidance - to me - appears to have done is wagered more momentum/potency in the lead wave, and that staggering jet input coming in afterward is weaker... What this does is, the lead wave then has a stronger backside NVA/confluence stream mechanic post bifurcation up there nearing the Lakes, ..and that then causes an increase ( rather abruptly upon all this mess..) of +PP genesis, ..cold BL and more suppression of the polar boundary... But, we noticed the vestigial southern stream ( post said splitting ..) is also considerably ( now ..) weaker as a result ( again ) of placing more emphasis on the leading jets structures as they are feeding over California - in the virtual realm of the CMC mind you.. Long of the short is, the deeper cold, weaker southern stream is no longer adequate to over come suppression ... then, the system/coastal others are noting becomes an entirely new entity closer to the 3rd ...possibly even 4th of January. It should be noted that this sensitivity to jet mechanics relaying off the Pac was one of our bullet points at the onset of this thread - ..and that this whole period of time is needing refinement. I don't have any reason to presume the CMC's modulation/changes are false... But, I do think it is either going to be right, or, it will have to modulate back to the pack.. Which, I still would like to see the latter get the physically realized grid down their throats before raising confidences... The pack still believes the initial mechanics will split - they all do.. and that the norther counter part will deliver an antecedent cold insertion along the upper OV-NE regions... questions remain as to the southern entrails and how they then roll up underneath.. suppression vs powerful and toting stronger WAA... I don't for the record believe the super-synoptic scale tendency for an arm of polar jet arced along the southern tier of the Canadian Shield, will relent as readily as the EPS suggests, just based upon experience here. It may ... these models don't put out "physically impossible" scenarios... I would also note that having R-wave nadirs near the 100 to 110W lon is a problem across N/A for Euro species/trough inserts digging too much. Back when the 29th appeared a player ... I did post that I thought the period of the 27th through the first week of January was interesting - it seems like that happens more often, where an 'original' take sort of comes back to rear a presentation after the intervening din of emergence finally fail to all but mute them... Maybe we're just in the formulation phases -

Some of us walk a tightrope. We appreciate when not fascinate weather phenomenon .. but the power loss aspect loses its appeal in about as much rapidity it took for the lights to flick off when standing knowing pretty much anything other than your next breath is powered by electricity in our method and means of life

Lol ... I kept that brief, too On a PC that's not much - these phone make things seem a lot longer

As this mid to late week has come into a mid range, the previous synopsis of a full latitude trough has apparently succumb to a fast N/stream top heavy flow, and said trough in all guidance has now bifurcated. Complex evolution involving the residual southern stream then rides up into a nascent/model introduced cold insert to 40 N This has sheared the N/ counterpart E across southern Canada and escaping thru the Maritime toward week's end... The back side of this is concomitantly NVA and depending on guidance ...stream confluence is noted. But all guidance now also roll nascent/materializing +PP across Ontario in this wake. That 'growth' in this anticyclone ( I suspect ..) is insidiously important as it likely imposes a bit of cold bust potential due to acceleration of tuck/barrier jet flow/ orientation therein, as the vestigial S aspect of said sheared trough is then rising up the semi-permanent SW Atlan ridge..This feature will pose an overrunning risk as it will ( undoubtedly..) be toting along a respectable theta-e mass ...and due to the morphology of it running up into a confluence, it will 'stretch' in the x-coordinate ... this can manifest in a light to moderate longer duration cold rain/mix/snow ( S-->N) event, or perhaps split into multi wave/pulse even spanng 24 to 36 hours .. This is all speculative due to the fact that although these visions are barrowed from climo and experience... the offending tropospheric wave features are just nosing into the denser more physically realized sonde array this evening an overnight... Seems to be a recurring concern as of late, doesn't it. Prelim slated for refining: - Right now I would say light to moderate event by our storm-climate standards. - I would also correct the GFS 2-m temps down 3-5F N of the boundary ...and don't be afraid to imagine 15 or even 20F temp compression along 10 miles of frontal position in a situation like this. - Appears to me to be 70 or % for advisory ice/snow in CNE with low probability for warning ... 50% for these down as far as mid CT/NW RI, but these headlines probably get headachy due to ice S vs a mix of mangled bullet and snow N.

it might almost be worse than that, in the operational 00z/12z blend of those two cycles ... yeesh. I mean, cutters tend to have back side upslopeCAA tho.. cold advection instability squalls .. It's just maddening to the enthusiast that they have to scrape by on that in wait of the rollout and next warm intrusion. What the Euro is doing reminds me of December 2006 frankly - getting dated at 14 years ago... but that was the year that was in danger of going down as a like an unworldly statistical warm outlier freak winter. I don't think I even saw a snow flurry prior to January 10 that year... It was a weirdly Pacific dominated flow so violently extreme that +30 850 mb temperatures washed over the Canadian shield at times/in plumes and the places like Tower MN failed to registery a 32 F before Xmas... I remember as the satire publication, "The Onion" remarked about the dangerous perils of the punishing Great Lakes winter in defiant mockery over 52 F frostbite sarcasm - ... it was surreal. I don't know... I'm spit ballin' there but the Onion did joke about that winter.. .and it was ongoing unprecedented badness ... Just there was no such thing as winter ... period... on this side of the hemisphere. The AO that autumn, unlike recently ... was NOT in error, and it was putting up two towers to +6 SD!!!! intermediated by a relaxation to +4 in between. Every day was 47 to 62 range for highs until mid January... Then, it all changed yeah..the AO crashed actually in early January and plummeted some 7 SD from +6 to -1 or -2... At first the cold dumped over in Eurasion but the wave number rotated around 10 days later and NP popped the AB phase /-EPO and we started getting cold... I think we snowed at the end of the month and then February made up some ground. I remember almost being disappointed at that point ( almost ) ...because when we got to mid point and it was exotic, it felt like tarnishing a Monet' art work and I wanted the painting to finish that way... I mean christ, if could have only made another month of it - .. .But where the hell was I going .. oh yeah, the Euro and EPS' flow is uncanny similar to that mean look of that Dec 2006. I don't know what or why they are - but I don't have any confidence in them necessarily for now either.

God bless Pivotal for existing ... But, I wish their displays were larger than just southern Canada and the conus adjacent marine - it's too small to gather a toe-hold on the hemispheric feeds and exits and good synoptic reads really need those perspectives - Anyway, the 850 mb EPS from 00z last night .. that's uglyXugly .. ugly*squared - green lawns and budding forsythias - ... yeah, safe to say, given the Euro's vision overall, there is not an interesting signal for Jan 7 - 11 lol... Probably the opposite

Nice signal on the GEF members for the Jan 7 -11 period. Most members carry 'some'thing .. ranging from baroclinic wall to a deep phasing constructs and coastal cryo - I think as soon as the CPC ensemble system rights its self we'll get better confidence in a blocking motif out there into the first half of the month. Recent CPC mean has parted company with the verification indicating it has been vastly too negative going back a week to 10 days with increasing error leading to the present time. In fact, the mean initialized about a whole SD lower than the verification curve in last nights output - ugh... The warm rain on Xmas actually WAS good fit for the AO/NAO ...but anyone CPC -reliant may have been nonplussed.. oops. But, forgetting the indices, the individual GEF members look stormy and it's not a bad look for those needing this excitement.

bold is all that matters seein' as everyone's dyin to know what I think lol. no, but I think the Euro leaning is telling tho.

Trend trend trend

Yeah ... like that Signer that slipped on stage next to Obama back in '13 ... and was completely mimicking how to sign-language for the hearing impaired and of course... since so few in attendance actually need or require that assistance, pretty much the whole press conference went down with this guy 'faking' The one or two deaf people are looking around scratching their head - I guess it would be the equivalent of us hearing this: " [0y89yh because -> AHFDHF when -8-87077- no sire fah;fhhhfd;sdh;f why! " Lol, like, there's some language in there somewhere, you know - man... that's like the funniest thing ever... If the guy wasn't a quack ... I mean was that like a streaker at a ball game. I wonder where that clown came from. It's not that far fetched to imagine a drunk college kid doing that on a goof or dare - hahaha

No one in here is completely objective, obviously. Don't have to delve deeply into any philosophy to see that no human being observing "reality" truly is. We're all perceiving, subsequently then evincing those perceptions along some tolerated spectrum of lesser lucidity. Having mused that, ... this engagement ? Ho my ... it has less to do with "analysis" of weather - but weather is just vehicle for affixing drama .. getting a 'kick' high - and when it is model dependent... It's not real.. artificial. ... short of experiencing that high, this becomes 'group support' - which is the real destination. Perhaps in some way that can be construed as "an analyst" - lol. I see where Scott's coming from in that arena. We've just been dealt a pretty significant 'personal' blow as winter Currier&Ives enthusiasts. He's smart ... he sets his coffee down and looks at some shit from over night and the first thing that pops to mind is, 'oh god here we go' and it pisses him off... Why? Not because someone spiked his 'Nog with vinegar - it's because it's a collective "soft" delusion ... People/J.Q. User and the tenor demos the delusion is being formulated, ...given time, solidification of that delusion into thinking it is real... Chris' pot-shot said it perfectly in snark the other day - and it was funny, because it was essentially true: '...people in here are more interested in a D7 storm on the models than they are seeing snow in air' This was never intended to be what/why these environmental prognostic tools were ever invented - it's an emergent aspect of the Internet era. I mean ..try to imagine your world 20 years ago, if you are old enough to have been cognizant of pre-Internet. But I digress -