Typhoon Tip

wow, goes out to the end of the run, too - +2 to +7, CNE to the S. Coast from D6 on, in full sun is going to boost green up at least in the undergrowth species and surfaces...

Actually Saturday is a bit of gem appeal too.

I mean I hate any sentiment that 'wishes the time away,' but even I have to fend off the notion of 'just get us to next Sunday,' when looking over this 12z Euro... Man, that is the first top 10 day of the year arriving into spring... Might even qualify top 5er in that look. It's like 68 F, and under unabated sun and just barely noticeable WNW drift to the air .. it'd just be like an opium nap out there -

Today ... perhaps early Wednesday, then again, late week, if Logan does not put a trace of snow ( at least ..) in the books, things are gonna get tight - It seems the models/ ens means ... are struggling and losing against the seasonal hemisphere. It's like they are suppressing the storm, at the same time the air mass is moderating over top (00z Euro) if subtly - the system for late week. In general, there seems an attempt to minor that out more every run...and at this point, the GGEM and GFS ( 12z ) can't even get measurable to HFD. For several runs, the Euro's offering a sneaky "nape" day in there on Wednesday. The 00z has 300, 500, and 700 sigma level RH fields allowing at least partly sunny cut through, 18z on Wednesday, with light wind. Not a total loss... but the whole complexion there after suppressing the low S and moderating the 850 mb thermal layout seems is trend more so than aberration run. It'll be interesting to see if the 12z continues. anyway, "tight at Logan" ... there has never been a March without at least a trace of snow at that location. If they don't do it today ...over this week, it would be dicey whether they can the rest of the way. Because it does not appear there is an opportunity after this immediate week - aspect would have to change.

I can relate. I was leaving the driveway around 6:35 am fairly routinely in the couple years leading to society changes forced by this pandemic stuff. I took the same route to work spanning those years, which put me right around the bends on I-91 in central Mass right as Worcester comes into view. Around this time of year, the sun was tipping over the eastern horizon, and it was always an internal monologue, "...For the next 2.5 weeks it will be in my face..." But in the heart of winter, it was deep night and just a morning glow rising at that particular region of the commute. Contrasting, by early summer, the sun was high enough to no longer be in one's face. I think of the two ends of that spectrum, I'd rather not leave for work under star twinkling nocturn. But it's tough...because I don't like dark at 4pm no matter what - hm.. Still, I think I'd rather have the light extension at the end of the afternoon... Because usually when en route to work ...I'm thinking about the day's bs and it's not "usable" day light anyway because the goal is a cup of joe and 20 min of appropriate internet time before settling into throwing more of my life away...

Yup - this, right here, underscores the 'why' it was necessary as a societal response. In simplest terms? Medicine et al simply cannot - yet - predict who will fall in that relatively rare, 2::23 or 1::31 ( whatever) persons destined for intubation. As you say ...no prior comorbidities - I've heard enough of both types of lead-ins that my country bumpkin take is that yeah... comorbidity factors raise risk for those individuals, but, there are a large percentage that didn't fall into that group - necessarily - and they ended up in the same pickle with tech keeping them alive. So there's an overlap, one that means comorbidity factors alone cannot example and are only partial. We've all heard of comorbidity types also walking away, 'phew.' Bottom line, there does not really appear to be any kind of 'one-size-fits all' affliction with this virus, like with Polio..etc. Or EEE ... etc. Risk enhancers? yes. But that is no certainty. For the love of Humanity's worst invention of all, the concept of God, let us "waste time praying" (...if it makes us feel any better no harm in wall wailing). that late game COVID-19 has higher survival rates now. Earlier on in this Pandemic - 'avoid that criticality and you probably will be fine' ... But, this has been probably one of the fastest turn-arounds --> positive returns for medicine triumphs in the history of humanity, so with that fervor of advancement those latter stages recovery rates may have improved?

Nah life will return. Just like it did after every pandemic in history. Society at al and en masse is acting like they are addicted to doomscrolling… Like they have to see the worst possible scenario as the only possible reality. Frankly 90% of humanity needs to have their Internet taken away from them they can’t handle it; they can’t lucidly categorizes information and they are too prone to this kind of easily beguiled by dystopian charm thing that’s going around and people are making a fortune off their panic If you talk to the epidemiologists they will tell you that the future COVID-19 descendants he will be a less pernicious version because that is the natural gestation of these pandemic virus; less damaging variations given time because it doesn’t make any sense to kill the host in wild biology.

I'm surprised at the 48 we put up here given the synoptic appeal.. I heard one of those 'from tape' generic, idiot radio forecasts in passing last night talking about struggling through the upper 30s to 40. I wonder what the MOS looked like -

nah... I doubt that thing at the end of the week at this point - ... I won't say no altogether because I'm not stupid...I mean, it's f'n March. But in the here and now, the rotted side of that air mass is not marginal enough, and the only cold source arrives as an N/stream smash in that's inharmonic and destructively interfering with that opening S/stream remnant mid level trough given to nuances in the stream behaviors - it stays an open wave over the outer Maritimes ... The things is...the other guidance more than less show that or are trending in that favor. And it fits the other indicators - I think we're triggering undergrowth green up after -

Noticing a efficacy slope that is favoring more so to those companies that waiting to release their version of the vaccine/ .. availability therein. It seems those that waited have the great comprehensive utility against variances, and nuances. It's like those companies "prooobably" knew that - the Moderna out there... They all have access to the same technology and science wherewithal, and probably were all in reality within a week or two of progress the whole time. Those that announced earlier, they could have perhaps waited and "perfected" their versions I'm just water cooler speculating here ... it doesn't take an economist to predict the pay off on being the first. The first version needed, what -70 C storage ...which represented a tricky logistical issue. Then the next 'generations' require 2 shots... Then came single shot ... now, single shot with vastly more comprehensive Pfizer this or that.. It's likely the latter ultimately ends up being the permanent yearly booster that comes along side, if not integrated somehow into the InF A and B on-going .. So, folks won't likely forget those names like Moderna ..etc etc.

EPS has also been easing off the amplitude of that total trough integration though, too - red flag? Might be. - folks holding out for an exit hurrah, keep in mind that the hemisphere at mid latitudes is normalizing at an increasingly factoring aspect. Normalizing in this context means "losing large scale storminess" . The tendency to demolish ambient baroclinicity through increasing insolation, as it is sweeping very quickly S to N, is the culprit. It is an emergent 'correction' to keep in mind that is only making it harder than the day before to mainatin - the models 'might' not morph along with that acceleration - in fact, I argue over the years of experience that if they do, they do a lousy job. GFS probably the worst ...owing to NCEP creating a model that only has N/stream and no other reality on the planet ..ugh. Anyway, storms...even big ones modeled now through April, may end up verifying much more paltry... shredded cirrus and altro-strata whirls with even sun gaps that tend to fill in with pancake CU underneath, when they were originally modeled to be more more cohesive impactors. For bigger late spring blue bombs and blizzard freaks, what needs to happen is a proportionately bigger anomaly cold input to offset the seasonal factor. Which has of course happened. But, that thing at the end of the week.. doesn't appear situated to benefit so my guess upon thinking about this is that may not work out. We'll see... The flow is still a bit fast overall, though it is slowing right after that out toward the Equinox and beyond... Maybe that's a wild card in itself.. But, there's also that tendency for 'system magnification' in the models. I mused months ago that storms showing up on D10-12 in the extended, they are like the moon coming over the dusk horizon ...looming with terrifying celestial prominence ... but then lose the magnification and ends tiny. By the way, that late month signal is starting to look rather warm - bigger signal than this last shot across the bow... Has a green up trigger vibe to it. The NAO is rising while the PNA remains neutral - in a numerical averaging... + and neutral / 2 = positive... etc.. I still believe that this spring as whole will not suffer the protracted and/or cold recidivism of those recent years ...that brought green up belated April's and even snow flurry CAA cu in May... My mind's eye visualizes the last 10 days of the month La Nina spring incarnate with a multi-guidance eastern height anomaly already being modeled... while the telecon layout supports ... That's prooobably all going to parlay and closed the books on the 2020-2021 winter story - climate anyway... But, I think there is some chance for the very rare balmy April.

Heh. 0Z GFS phases even more .. pretty much a cutter at this point.

rain showers too... Interesting seeing half the ptype on Intell. scans not snow even N of the border. Monday appears to be the deeper cold thrust

Took a look. GFS is attempting too bully the N/stream in to the party. It’d be better off if that jet up there dissociated. If it did that might even take on ‘97. Half ass phase only fs things up tho

Suggest less imaginative-casting, and more forecasting utilizing - at least in attempt ... - applied logic/analytics and techniques - thus, the former as formative from those deterministic sciences in the matter. It's fun and artful to dream up scenarios ... We've all done it, either deliberately or even in accident... but don't be reliant - that is not going to have a positive return method frankly. Plus, it's a little odd if one expects those visions to happen? But it also bad practice in general, if one does that... but then must wait on, or be reliant, that permutations and the vagaries of the fractal nature of distant weather patterns and the wind will happen to emerge scenarios consistent with their fantasies. Just a word to the wise ... You're - probably - young, and full of mental energy. I would not want to discourage anyone in that time of life...

There seems to be layers of competing error in that regard. Both in the model itself, and among all guidance for that matter. The first layer is as you say... but, I would also extend that the Euro has a consummate "multi-generational" ( meaning it's been going on for years across successive upgrades) bias when going form the outer short range into mid range, and then again going from the deeper mids to the extended range. It seems to default whatever it is handling in the atmosphere nearing those temporal seams, to a category of increased amplitude when crossing the time range. I've noticed this at 4.5 days ...then again 7 + The first one does it the most. If there is a small clipper 'dent' in the 500 mb stream lines at D4 ... by D6, it's a full latitude torque menace over the OV far far too often... And usually we get threads and posts going about the D7 Euro like equal clockwork. Ha ha, I bet if did a correlation statistical analysis on thread and post frequency as a comparison to the Euro, we would see a very high correlation coefficients between those amp intervals and the scale and degree of gaeity and good spirits that passes through this social media'sphere like a panacea cure for all that travails and ails the beleaguered warriors suffering dearths of lives outside this obsession -... Might be an interesting analysis for the techno-sociological experiment of Humanity in modernity dissertation Ray should be working on to garner his PHD... But I digress - lol Anyway, seriously ... the second aspect/layer is that all models - as separate issue to the Euro's ongoing native bias ... - have been very consistently seeing disturbances in the D7+ range quite ominous compared to what they end up being whence the arrive to say ...D4 ... Insidiously correcting toward less and less in inches and parametrics as it gets near, such that you just sort of end up with bag of peanuts when you thought you were toting a roast turkey. Ha, like that dream? You know? Where you have the impression of holding the hand of your dream girl, and then when you look down -in the dream - she's not there. Then the dream spends the next few minutes of tossing and turning and REM as you try and find her and it seems like the dream deliberately evades her presents. Probably the same phenomenon as trying to reach the end of a hall and as you run faster, it stretches to infinity and you can never find it. I digress again... man, I have a real problem with that, I know - Problem is, how to parse out which error is representing for next week is ... good luck.

Saw that - thing is, the Euro with it's curvature defaulting for whatever it is in the process of handling on D4's, then relaying that into 6's in general, has me thinking that it bottoms the barrel out there in the southern Rockies earlier on too much. Meanwhile the EPS has the same 120 hour and 168 hour suggestion as the GEFs... and both are sending enough signal under LI that it's probably wise to suspect that operational look.

Very difficult to compare/contrast cross-guidance at Tropical Tidbits.. Makes we wonder if the site's purveyor is really a Meteorologist and not really just a weinershnitzel with clever web programming skills - That site click-action always forces you to the last hour of a given models release cycle, and it throws you off when doing continuity analysis - very annoying actually...to the point where I want to stop using that site. Hey...it's free so - heh...don't wanna be a douche either, but that's stupid design either way. When you are on the 00z ECM, and you click to the GFS... it sends you to the 06z GFS ... WRONG I bet this individual is like that person at the office that runs around and asks people if they saw the big game last night ... waits to hear them say, 'NO, they have it recorded...' ... THEN, launches into a details play-by-play accounting of the event. Pivotal ..which is far superior anyway for comprehensive product spectrum ... does it right. If you are on the 12z anything... it takes you to that same model cycle elsewhere if it can -

Yeah ...I dunno - it's not rubbing it in but this is now what? 6 out of 7 recent years that had an early warm that is absurd - Happening in either NINO, NINA or NADA this, polar that... and it didn't matter. mm hm... there's something going on - particularly when you couch that aspect in with all these other 20 year's worth of various oddities that people rationalize and avoid the implications of -ha

nah... that was always frigid and alone - ..in fact that storm next week? that was wrapped around my genitals so tightly wound that apparently it still is

This ought'n get the forsythia buds swellin' and the crocus shoots all nice and set up good and proper to be destroyed this weekend... I wonder if the climate change models ever specifically signaled 50 degree temperature swing - related crocus genecide ...lol

71 here at multiple home sites ... feels like it.. has that above living room feel walking out the front door -

Farmer's Gold storm... It's a saying out in farm country. You like these Equinoxial snow thumps... in fact, they love 'em in April too... preferably after the first tilling rotation of Earth. The snow fixes a nitrogen goose ...and sometimes at the tail of a dearthy snow year, too - so actually needs it. It's all relevant to preference - ha... Will and I have been half joking that this was a 70 to snow year feel to it... We can't seem to shake the N/stream despite the tele's suggesting it's May already ...so, let's see if we can get this done.

Yup...I bitched and complained my way into the warm sector ! ... I still suggest there was an ill-modeled diffused lag in the warm arrival though...the clearing here in Ayer 2 hours ago coincided with a coherent increase in SW breeze...flag waving, and we jumped from 55 to 66 inside of a 40 minutes when that happened... So... delayed by not ultimately denied - Yeah Scott - one helluva of a classic blue bomb look to that... That thing goes from 991 to 981 in those 12 hours passing just quintessentially along the climate route for puking 15" of green tinted power outage from Kevin to Will to Ray... While you ... uh, might oatmeal in that for a while but you'd end in paper mache The only problem is... there's not much support from the GEFs or cross-guidance... But you know what - I suspect that matters less? Just because spring craziness is clearly set into the model behavior. The flow is also flattish off the Pac with weak western ridge semblance and so ...a bit of an 'unmanned firehose' thing going on. So it not adding to confidence ..it's not taking away either.