Typhoon Tip

Yeah, I wonder where the NAM is situating it's UVM core(s) with respect to thermal profiling. Crucially, UVM specifics like that? absolutely. In fact, this technically starts off as an amorphously defined southerly flow/conveyor, that pivots/'backs' around to the E ..like taking 12 to 18 hours to do that pivot. Once it does, that's when these ptypes start going blue blobbed out there over the elevation spines... ...blah blah the low ( NAM ) then dynamically assists its own cold profile and throws a parachute party. I mean ...folks need to realize ... if the cold profile of NAM worked out, it's a cotton ball snow storm where it does go over. You might hear them thump on the car tops if you turned the engine off ...heh. The old farmer's adage about the big snow flakes mean a change to rain ...fails in this case, because if you go to those big aggies ...that means you were not handed an address for the popular people party ...only to arrive there and find that the party was in fact somewhere else.

I keep thinking of this ... It's funny that this was a whopper teleconnection flagged by the GEFs some 14 days ago actually.. I remember posting several repeating iterations ( to deliver a point that I still don't know if anyone actually acknowledged despite my harangue LOL..), that there was a 'monster mid month signal.' Probably the reticence to do so centers around the unfortunate caveat also discussed re that mid April thing ... uh yeah. By then, nearing mid August sun power ... I had let it go but here we are... It's just hard to keep on things when for one, you stop caring.. .but, we are putting up 78 F days off and on waiting for some signal to materialize...when the other side is even more warmer climate as inevitable. It's not really conducive to giving a shit - Ever think of that - ? whilst we offset acceptance and sorrow stage of the winter death psychology, with a couple of blips on the EKG, we do so under the equivalence of August 24th sun. Imagine a blue bomb in discussion on any August 22nd? I've seen it be 96.4 F on August 24th and that was a cold bust because it was 22.5 C at 850 ..but of course cirrus plumes timed which is usually how the true cutting edge big heat fails in New England. ... Anyway, it's tough to argue seasonal lag when we make legitimate comparisons, huh -

I like behaviors to 'make sense' ...or at least suggest plausible explanation if reasons for behavior cannot be coherently evinced. Heh... I mean, the NAM's run variance between 12z yesterday and now ...really, I don't know which run I'm looking at if just boxing east of Utica, N of Jersey and S of Brian. That region is, other than very minor irrelevances, the same run across 5 cycles. How is that possible ? It's almost like the low already exists over Nantucket in the virtual sense - like a slot for a cog, and it wants to find it's nesting point. ...heh, symbolism but you know what mean... But seriously, go to TT and put the 32km NAM on hour 54 (06z run this recent), and click the Prev. Run button 5 times: same result inside of nuance and noise. Operational philosophy: That's weird in itself. Lol. What to do? ...I guess I'm hinting that "maybe" ( ouch) this could be a weird situation where the other models are missing some sort of dynamical feed-back and how that integrates and forces deep layer morphology. In general, there are events in history where the NAM did well... however rare that may be the case - ugh. But of those, I do distinctly recall this sort of stalwart stubborn continuity leading. Back in February ... it didn't have that... It was repositioning features run to run, and then for 3 -cycles it feigned continuity and went amped/NW between 60 and 84 hours...only to pull the rug out < 54. But that was a fun 18 hours of model-cinema, no doubt! This 12z run ...can't wait to see if it hits for 6th consecutive run, ...not just the 6th run, ...but as though it is just duplicating intervals like that. I guess for the purpose of being very concise: this is using the "behavior" of the NAM as a possible deterministic tool - but I would only suggest so because said behavior being what it is.

Short memories with the NAM ... ? Lest we forget that it hammered everyone east of the Hudson for multiple runs back in Feb, when other guidance like the UKMET was pancaked and out to sea with cirrus streaks. That set up did not hammer the regions. Big phantom event way too far NW - I warned the NAM does this with NW bias/amplitude beyond 48 hours back then, too ... Inevitably, it left the devoted suckers sitting alone in the cafe staring at the door, wondering if she'll show ... Seeking pros: This is different pattern-wise, however. The flow is slower around this thing, ..the wave-lengths smaller... It's a more self-determining/mechanically conserved "dynamics" storm - drilling down from above also has its deterministic headaches. The baroclinic canvas is almost non-existent in the lower troposphere at event entry, but a crucial feed of cold air ( NAM ) injects at critical timing, as the 500 mb passes underneath SNE. This induces frontogenics ..probably 850 to 600 mb range... which the NAM uses to materialize UVM ... So, upward vertical motion hydrostatically causes downward heights, and that machinery drills its way down - drawing the freezing level with it. For snow ...obviously first to the elevations ...then that looks bit like flashing over to parachutes. I can't throw that behavior away in and of itself, because I've seen that happen in early May. It may be worth it to note, these top-->down events tend not to need 32 to snow below... When height falls take place and freezing level sags deeply under the UVM regions.. the cat-paw temp is probably 40 F believe it or not. Flip to slush blats is 37.6 or something, and it's all snow at 35/36 F after dark. I must admit, it's been pretty anchored across the last 5 consecutive cycles in the NAM, with less variance than any other guidance across that span of runs. Wild speculation but maybe the slower field and shorter wave lengths, and more mechanics not already blown open at the planetary scale but conserving inward to the 'self-centered' low ( haha)... maybe this sort of circumstance et al is just more the NAM's wheelhouse. Euro was yeah ...a tad better at 500mb ...if by attitude alone. Problem is.. obviously this situation being spring marginal incarnate ... has very low tolerances for whether it's cat pawing or flips over to actual aggregates. It may seem out of left field to mention but, 1992 Dec was a wonderful example excessively narrow tolerance razor edging cat paws vs 1/4 mi vis parachutes.

Heh maybe the NAM can score a coup

Climo perfection track at mid levels. 500mb capture and stall. A pedestrian depth but upper tier proficiency in field mechanics.

It’s just straight up trying to engineer a spring blue bomb

Whenever I see this individual in post I cannot help but wonder if George001 might bear some resemblance ... J/k george

This is just a weird week ... I mean, looking at sat loops and various shit ...we are still embedded in the under carriage west motion under -NAO influence... and we're 65 to 69 with still air and sun here that feels warm really.. So what? well...it's April 13 ... when is a long fetch off the N. Atlantic while hosing out of a -NAO like normally 68 partly sunny. Yet in two days 30 F correction into stuff of dreams - ...like, really? I guess. By the way, the buds popped here... really just the last two nights. Sugar maples flushing flowerettes. These are the first canopy species to go - though some Elm too. Lawn's looking more green with some individual blades sticking up. Good time to cake 'em in damage

Welcome to marginality, huh -

You need an ideal everything ...? Not really ... 1978 Feb was not ideal for 'some' reason - just a matter of obsessive tedium by us neurotic malcontents to find it, but nothing is perfect in the Universe - LOL But ..there's time to shave a half deg in critical layers and make the difference between cat paw white rain vs 'chutes. I'd say get this to the 85th %tile or so, and then let things synergistically parlay the rest of the way. I mean ...what are one's alternative? Angst to the point of precancerous inflamation factors over that which we cannot force by hope - In more critical terms, I'm not sure the EPS mid level height falls can happen without it snowing in this profile, and it probably snows vis all the way down to blue air visibility at 34.5 F too. I bet the cat paw temperature is like 39.7 F ... blat blats on the windshields with big drops in street lamps... over to slush at 37.6. It's a classic spring top down cooling scenario and it snows above freezing ...etc...etc... when that's the deal. I almost suspect these QPF ptype charts are really not seeing that... They are just seeing where < 33 flirts with the tree tops -

Not sure what's been said/ covered re the runs and this interesting spring anomaly but ... just on an island that NAM (12z ) solution would snow prolifically for a 4-6 hour period West of 495 and N of south coast of CT, likely above QPF in that general synoptic layout/evolution it carries through. Didn't like the 00z Euro backpeddling on surface reflection ( coherence..) such that it did, but the EPS mean was impressive in the mid level height falls as that thing pass S so will to wait on the Euro oper another cycle. Otherwise, devoted thread time

That's the key element ... I've been discussing that, how some of the historical inference/paradigms for spring anomalies seem to all carry that in common - a key inject of cold at a critical phase of development. It's interesting that the Euro/EPS and NAM are trying to hit on that ... oh boy ...this is happening shit

UKMET has a classic evolution, too - ... not very strong, but spatially inured to the same playout

HO boy .. I just saw the Euro and EPS Uh... That looks like it's trying to evolve a system analog to 1997 - I looked up the CIPs ...but that's based upon the 00z GFS and is not even right. I compared the 00z to the CIPs and I am not sure what in f they are comparing because the 00z GFS did not look like the CIPs 500 mb at the same hour: 120 so... I don't trust that I am using that product correctly ? whatever - Anyway, those heights deepening AS IT IS CURLING UNDER LI is precisely what turned a D5 interesting look into a historical juggernaut back whence, and believe me 24" in metro west was a bit of an over performer to put it lightly. And while I would not ever forecast that in a mid range, on or after an April 12th run... fact of the matter is, in 1977 21" fell in N-central Mass. I'd say we are around 50% for ... +1 SD snow result, which for D4.5/5 is pretty damn bright - ... Just a hair cooler and that's +2 .. +2.5 at 75%, only limited by strength. Just ball-parking

It depends on the fantasy bubble in question ... lol. Someone a page or few ago advanced the notion that society et al will sort of quietly, or 'soft revolt' masks before hand. I tend to suspect that to be the case... when the vax counts get higher and some curves start to fall. The CDC, or Fox/CNN's fear and social engineering tactic ...et al, will advise time lines and society sort of just condescends them with nods and agreeing tones while not abiding. We're done Maybe not exactly like that but I could see it culturally losing popularity and believe you me, that'll shut down the Industrial media conglomerate gears on the subject matter real fast - not having readers or listeners reacting. Something like asymptotically the curve of urgency and caring drops beneath advice - people have endurance for protocols that are not part of the evolutionary biological kingdom, thus instinct - hint, hint. Masks are not part of that message ...And endurance, as the word implies, doesn't last for ever. People are sick of it already. I see it everywhere. I go to the gym. We where masks... disgusting, sweaty, snotty putrescent germ trap masks. This gross hard workout spectacle ...despite staff crop dusting with a hand held vaporizer ... forces one to question if they ever were really much better given those conditions. And the staff used to go around and micro-police the mask be pulled up over the nose ...now? they don't even look - people let them sometimes sag down to their chins so basically no mask while wearing the mask... Like the euphemism Phin denoted 'virtuosity signaling' - that's enough to stop the virus dead in its tracks! It's just losing gravitas ... So, in a reality like that ... yeah, masks may be done here over the next couple three months one way or the other. We were not born with dental dams for a reason -

That posts is almost intolerably fantastic -

I you know I have trouble remembering that one... I was living in Acton at the time, teenager ... I don't remember a big snow storm but I know the reference etc... But I remember one afternoon, we had partial leaf out - is that the one? I think it was like the 24th or 25th ...something late in the month. We were cold rain in the afternoon, and I remember right around as dusk was coming on the rain was over to snow at about the same rate as the light faded - I'm not sure if that's the same event though. I remember walking up to the gym to get my 2 hours of basketball pick-up games in when I should have been doing homework ... heh, and noting the snow was sticking to the maple leafs.... etc. But it didn't like cut power or anything and I don't recall much else about that event. damn

OH wholeheartedly It's on me though... droll and context smearing is like 10-10-10 in the garden bed of "Facebook Fights" ( showcased program around Va Beach radio that's hilarious - ) ...why should we be any different in here. Like ALL the other aspects that missive ham-fisted discussed in way more detail... if someone has genetic comorbidities ...that's preposterous to think they are at fault. If we really want to get into the empathy of it...some people have "unhealthy" life-style habits because they are mentally hurting and its viced ... you know, sneaky uncles, or just blurred boundaries in an enmeshed family upbringing, or a vague or badly constructed history in the regard in general, and they end up with weird complexes as adults... Jesus- just give me cigarettes and a coffee house poetry reading and leave me alone... That sort of thing... In reality, it's just an infection - and it's just science telling us statistics. It's up to those to understand the stats and then figure out what they wanna do with the information, and assholes like me trying to be cutesy droll and funny ... well, not always going to land on folks as funny. sorry heh

You mean like 'lort' and what is wrong with pointing out a definition exactly ?

Seems evidentially nested in the definitions for the word .. There's not semantic room here like you I suspect you are after - you are not talking to an idiot .... Any act that flouts potential consequence fits this general conception. im•mor•al ĭ-môr′əl, -mŏr′- ► adj. Contrary to established moral principles. Not moral; not conforming to or consistent with the moral law; unprincipled; dissolute; vicious; licentious. Contrary to good order or public welfare; inimical to the rights or common interests of others: a legal and commercial sense.

Nah...you're redrafting what an "unattended covid infection" implies in order to bring it down and make it comparable. Unattended covid has a much higher risk for serious injury or worse then being inconvenienced for 4 days... You alleviating risk, your alleviating chances ( significantly) with 2 to 4 days of vaccine and who the fudge ever said it only last for only 6 months anyway - I'm getting conflicting reports there everywhere. that sounds like bust stop mill work to me... I have heard no formal science report to substantiates that much limit on efficacy in the absolute sense ... But, for the sake of discussion - the average run in with c-19 flu is in far worse that 4 days out of the total year of softer inconvenience.

Oh, I'm not heartless and without empathy ... I can see that may have been a hasty post on my part. But I know Weatherwiz from years on line and I think he understood the intent and conversation - could be wrong.. My bad Wiz' if that was offensive. Like I said, "... I'm not saying your pops was a 'sinner' per se .." That said, it is unfortunately the harsh reality: carrying on with an unhealthy life style is, in fact, immoral ... and the post was not about his father - it was about that fact, and to expose the irony that this infectious agent appears based in the space for how sever it affects -

? well sign me up - I'll bite on that

Yeah... if there were ever a scenario that screams 'don't be a QPF queen' ... that's g-damn mo'f'n one of them right there. It's like the euphemism I like, 'correction vector' - I don't believe the 'uncertainty aspects' favor a lesser result. Parametrics as modeled ( 00z suite) are in fact suggesting the opposite to put it nicely.