Typhoon Tip

yeah...well, it's also the diplomatic way of approaching an audience with such a proven track record of razor sharp objectivity ... so willing to accept truths and consequence - You know, as a different science: I do think ( not you per se ...), that people play denial and bargaining/ .. evasive games with general informatic because there are no consequences for being wrong. Not like many moons ago - 200 years ago... people were less prone to flights of fancy or they died of diphtheria and their kids didn't eat. Modernity enables a person, and en masse, collections of civility to believe in whatever they want. They don't have to take a warm up seriously ...because they don't grow their own food ... billion ways to define how/why modern extravagances that are ( frankly ..) not a part of 99.9973 % of human evolution, are in conflict with judicial rational that the previous evolutionary curve blessed us with and allow us to get to this spectrum of provisions and presumptions in existentialism.. That's going to be an interesting catch-22 etched in epitaph upon Humanity's last tombstone.

I remember musing in June of 2015 how if it snowed 0.0 for the next three consecutive seasons... we'd end up on climo for the 4-year mean at a lot of climate sites/ ..backyards. No one in here thought that was funny - interestingly ... In fact, I don't recall anyone even responded. ...I wonder why that is...

What were the ENSOs in the 30 months leading each - curiously ... I mean, back when ENSO meant more than rat pellets

There's never been a Blutowsky March at Logan. There's always been a virga CU that at least traced to "save" those otherwise boned months of yore. Last year was one of them... Traced the month ... I think I saw 6 years up there on the overhead while 'milling a 10 K at the gym last week. I got to thinkin' maybe this is a candiate year for the 0 . 0 0 March. This fun hypothesis is based upon several bum pumps: 1 ... despite all the cold, it won't snow. Persistence is a remarkable aspect when one gets into acceptance - it really sets them free of angst, actually. 2 ... La Nina spring, which erstwhile has not really presented. Now... as Scott and I rightfully mused the other day, at no time has this recent cold season very convincingly demoed a La Nina hemisphere - save for the off chance that a pattern happened to (maybe..) be passing through La Nina construct in a destiny that is not.. Point being, that trend might suggest that this is not a La Nina year - just a cold Pacific water that is meaningless .. proving that arm of the climatological science of indexing has always been a falsity ... That'd be cool! But, I think the HC shit is going to get proven over time.. just a matter of - digressing... What I'm thinking is that the La Nina may present more so now that the gradient is relaxing ...just in time to trample on the backs of the winter season bruised, that may have been hoping to get an exit swan song consolation to appease disappointment as a compensation. Nope... no symbolic savior for you - ONE YEAR! 3 ... HC - blah blah 4 ... The sun... mm hm.. Those of us that have been advancing ideas of regression back to winter, I have noted, an implicit lack of consideration for celestial mechanics - that means... the Earth going around the sun at 64, 000 mph hour is racing away from winter ... ( do you ever think of that? If you are standing there on a calm nape day in spring... no wind. Warm sense. Serenely calm and bathed in comfortability ...you and the setting are moving through space at 64,000 miles per hour. And, that motion is also tied to a movement around the Galaxy that is ... 250,000 miles and hour...which is all moving at a separate vector of ... etc etc... ) 5 ... Indexes: towering +AO that "might" come back to nuetral before rising again week 2... NAO not really convincingly helpful... PNA tending to negative.

Well ... dreaded discussion topic - I dunno... but, do we talk record highs Thursday and Friday ? ...what are they - I wonder. The synoptic metrics seem to support, but the details within that framework may or may not - but, anytime there is a potential anomaly of any kind the sets precedence ( record territory ) we should, being the responsible, lucid objective brain trust of the public access social media's sphere ( eh hm...) give it its equal acknowledgement ... I mean, after all, we live in a participation trophy era - lol. Anyway, the Euro may be too pessimistic with its 2-meter temps given that synoptic look, but it depends as usual, on specifics with ceiling RH, as well as wind direction. At this time of year? we cannot afford < than 220 wind direction or the L.I. Sound will wall off the warmth from NYC-PWM axis and points east. Dodging that...the WSW wind at 500, 700, 850 and surface under heights substantive enough to allow diurnal thickness expansion, all under "Equinoxial" sun strength... probably sends the actual temperatures across the region considerably higher than the 18z, 58F at Bedford's Hanscom field ob station the Euro sells them two days. The Euro has 850 mbs warming a tick or two every cycle going back 4 or 5 -worth. Now, +10 to 12C ... The sky/cloud coverage tends to be too pessimistic in most guidance when the flow is deep layer continental conveyor from WSW/SW trajectories - particularly adding that this is pre-green up N of the Mason Dixie, that's also not really in a hurry to advect moisture ..so my hunch is that if the models suggest mostly cloudy you go partly sunny... etc...

Ha... you know me. I have no dignity or self respect or reason to exist really so I don't give a fu - call 'em the way I see 'em. Right now? I see 50/50 chance of +10 or greater suddenly transforming everywhere in a warm tsunamis as the relaxation of gradient ( seasonal ) "ALLOWS" the merely erstwhile suppressed La Nina to ( pun deliberate to annoy... wait for it - ) "SPRING" into a coherence rather abruptly. Otherwise, we go back to climo with nothing imminent on the charts until such time as something materializes - if so... But hey, I am not without compassion - that's still 50%. And, within that 50% lurks blue bomb as part of the climatological setting. That's the way I see it. Climo or above, pick - Remove the 'Matterhorn' sized +AO that barely gets back to neutral Week 2 ( which the latter is not agreed upon either ), and the neutral positive NAO, and the neutral negative PNA ... and the La Nina ...and the HC... then I would not be posting this stuff that no one reads because it isn't placating their winter fantasies... weeeeee

Mm .. I dunno about that. "after this week, warm weather is gone..." ? really - I mean, it's not impossible. But I see all kinds of red flags that suggest the hemisphere could break rather rudely the other way. D8-10 of the 00z Euro may not verify as is...but, that look with that warm dome bulging back N is a red flag correction. Not only that, the flow surrounding it is relaxing gradient ... so that does not lend to an R-wave correction going forward from there ... sort of leaving the eastern U.S. naked to La Nina/HC spring signaling given time ...proving perhaps these cold 'lies' were just seasonal growing pains. It may even portend a warm eruption .. Playing devil's advocate here, but it's valid. Which by the way, ..that's actually GEF index supported. It is also too large/expansively anchored in that look, and is too close in my. Those two together .. heh Also, not sure what the EPS looks like but since the operational Euro and its EPS mean seldom part company enough to abase a general appeal ... I wonder if the EPS might be attempting to bail on the -EPO idea ... one that frankly, I was always a bit dubious about to begin with. The thing is, there was only one index that supported the -EPO idea, and that was the MJO "struggling" to get into Phase 8 but... struggling may be the tell - as in, it was/is being damped. it appears destined now to fail phase 8, but look out! Now the models buckin' more for a phase 1.. No, what is happening is that as the mid and/or extended ranged handling gets closer in time, the model physics are more aptly detecting the resistance of the wave momentum on that side of the RMM, and thus push out any coherent wave structure into latter wave space.. In short, it means, correct toward no influence on the westerlies from the MJO. So.. that sort of leaves me wondering if the -EPO might have been false because the MJO was anticipated to be a trigger that is really not going to be there.. Welcome to spring headaches in forecasting. I warned of that. The La Nina hemispheric footprint and overall circulation medium is inherently in a negative interference with MJO waves attempting to propagate around that side of the RMM... This last 10 days seems to have conned people into thinking it would finally overcome - and frankly, I'm one of those conned. I thought perhaps because the flow relaxation ( seasonal ) was becoming subtle as observable in guidance hints and frets ...etc.., that may open a window for less wave space suppression on the left-RMM ... But, with this failing phase 8 now pushed out to 1.. heh. F-u.. it's not doin' shit in my mind. Not playing that game. Anyway, we've been benefiting ...enabled to hide from the inevitable end of winter and the loathsome negative S.A.D. period of known as that weird summer thing ( hahah)... But, if you wish your time and life away ... you'll find yourself at October 20th next autumn with another CC triggered weird snow job on the charts that blues up your balls good and proper for the inevitable gradient to pull out of winter... Until then, I would not discount a rather uninspired rest of March and the notion of a balm/warm spring ... and, it may flash the hemisphere too. That lost -EPO look ... warm all of Canada some 15 or even 20 C at 850 mb .. Or not... In fact, here's the thing... in the spirit of objective reciprocity, it could do all that in principle and be essentially correct, and still pull off a 1997 type of nested ordeal. Until that happens I just can't sign off dodging warm the rest of the month after this week.

Tomorrow is a naper. cold but in a near still wind under that rotisserie heat emitter up there .. faux warmth incarnate

Telecon layout at CPC hasn't supported a regression into winter ... pretty much at all, since they began this huge AO correction 2 weeks ago. In that time, they have been joined by the neutral neg PNA and the neutral positive NAO. What we have not seen to go along with, is operational runs pretty much at any point being as warm as all that suggests they could, if not 'should,' be. The EPS may not agree... granted. Not sure what the GEFs EPO is looking like, but I suspect it is not hugely different than the EPS. Thing is, we have seen -EPO/-PNA/-NAO in the past, and that single cold signal overwhelmed. 2005 February started that way - it won't do that nearing April ... but you know - But, the EPS does change the landscape ...some. Thing is, you have to keep in mind that we are on the equinox sun when all that hits. It's a diabatic mutilation of the hemisphere and I suspect models are not really morphing the way that the reality will be morphed - ha... for lack of better way to say it. No one said otherwise, I know .. But I suggest it is possible we get this 'shot across the bow' spring balm this week, then we regress to normal climo. But hey, the upshot of our normal March 20 climo is blue bombs so... we'll see. Unless La Nina climo finally decides to show up to the party - Scott and I surmised ( half in snark ) that we have not seen a La Nina jack shit this year, despite some rather 1.5 like negative ENSO layouts... We're sort of expecting the cold return by conditioning maybe but there are still caution flags.. With out luck, it does just in time to ensure we Blutowski March

Yeah... ha, guess it's a bit much to ask machine guidance (MOS) to exceed climo by more than 15 F some five days in advance. MEX is over 60 Thursday and Friday for KFIT, 'ASH and 'BED ...where/whence climo is 43 to 46 F by then at those sites... MOS is weighted more heavily toward climate - at least that used to be the case .. - out in time. The idea there is, getting a 63 at KFIT for Friday when climate is 43 ...that's probably pressing the ceiling of what that product is even capable of allowing... In other words, that's pretty strong warm signal. More than mere 'nape' but a goodly margin, too. That 49 at KBED on Wednesday. nah,...there's no reason to assess KFIT as warmer than KBED ( 53 ) with a wind going WSW under the zenith of dry equinoxial sun. There's likely stat anomaly in there I think. 53 on Wed ( otherwise ) is 10 F over climo D3 ... So, adding the 2-m parcel explosive adiabatic profiling ... probably is over 60. Here's the thing - I've seen it be nearly 60 F over a snow pack in late February at the bottom of 540 thickness under full sun. Here, we are passing 550 dm with mixing on a deep laminar WSW trajectory and I have bare fields opening up around here as a testament to the sun's power - it really has not been snow melt weather. I dunno... maybe the very lowest slope temperature is even higher. I must admit... even I forget what the sun is like now. It's blazing hot despite the lingering air chill - I don't know why this early temperature fight interests me.. It's tedious, I know -

You sure? it’s been between 70 and 87 three times in the last five years between Feb and Mar.

Yeah Brian and I have mentioned this before but this is entering the bust time of year in machine guidance ... the reasons he cited are on point but also question : are we still drawing on the earlier 30 year mean? The database ‘brain’ may not have the positive flop tendency ‘in mind’ my experience is use the Skew-T l-p diagrams under March Synoptics such as this and add 2 for 2-m. But you gotta determine the boundary layer depth. May not be 850mb ... 875 ... maybe 900

That's better... 12z Tuesday in the Euro with 0 to + 2 C moderating throughout the day, under low RH ceiling heights and west drift - that is nape on roids.. Wednesday may be a real legit top 10 day -

I can see it in the 12z operational GFS's 'attitude' - for lack of better word. The arguments I've put forth regarding either La Nina ... HC ( or somehow someway they work together ) is also muddled causality melded in with spring heights inching higher ( coherently in this run..) Its difficult to separate the which is which in proportion But this run is speeding the flow up again.. shearing and Lakes cutting as the S heights become ( perhaps ) seasonally impenetrable. On top of all.. the CPC telecon spread is even inched warmer by curve interpretation... I'll tell ya, this run appears to offer two trace of snow chances at Logan through 360 hours. If those fail, heh... we put March in the Blutowski running... There has never been a 0 point 0 0 March at Logan. One's gotta figure we get nothing out of March but a ruined futility trophy at some point.

Since I'm the one that ultimately coined the expression 'nape' as a means to describe a sensible atmospheric setting ... allow me this moment: Next week is not 'nape' weather. Next week...is a swath of (attempting) anomalously warm weather - ..the extent of which to be determined/contingent upon the usual synoptic suspects that are typically not handled at this range. Nape is a very narrow, and fragile circumstance(s) that create a 'faux' warmth appeal amid a chilly truth. That specifically is the 'spirit' of that. We've all felt this... Picture the scene, one closes their front door behind them. Their edifice faces south from late February on ... It's 12:34 pm Saturday. The temperature is 44 F. The sky is > 90% unfiltered by cloud contamination. And the wind is at or near calm. In that moment, those variables overwhelmi, creating a kind of bubble. Inside of which is a false impression about the day's actual piece of shitness annoying chill. And there's some relativity to climate and calendar there too... 52 in April... 62 in May... etc.. But their needs to be nearly unabated insolation, and very light wind. Nape weather is fragile - Nape, in its original conception and use in turn of phrase some ten or whatever years ago... is related to 'faux' comfortability created by 'nook' effect amid otherwise chilly atmosphere. The sun is crucial. Having nearly no wind is crucial. The fragility of 'nape' affect cannot be underscored. As the sun dims, and the wind motion increases, the toleration shatters very quickly. Nape is actually a hard sensible appeal to maintain. Next weeks packed pressure contouring from the western TV to NE region, creating flag taut, white noise in the barren oak, early season shot across the bow ... is more like "fake" mild and really the wind causes it to be annoying. I would take 'nape' over that any day. If it ends up 70 on Thrursday like NWS said ( and we really should make that temperature ..their reasoning notwithstanding )but this just seems like the atmosphere has developed a 'Gaia' conscious that is in f-u mode, and will take a mild look and fennagle a way to make it garbage. I'm almost waiting for the misty warm sector that pulls off feeling cold because of it. Oh, we'll find a way to delay the diffused warm front arrival - despite having SW vectors at every level ( ooh, one of my favorites! ). Or...the impulse over the Lakes suddenly intrudes sending a polar front mooshing through the 'warm sector' 24 to 30 hours ahead of the original synoptic appeal of that period toward the end of the week. In fact ..that's probably a 'fast flow' HC compressED auto-correction anyway, snark aside. By the way, all S/W beyond D6 are still erroneously amplified ... just like they have been in all models, all cold season, almost all the time. Bear that in mind when your tying off your bicep, slapping your forearm, and getting ready to insert the weather chart needle.

Firstly ...the Euro operational referenced earlier really wasn't a back-door front. People call every tom dick and hair hung boundary in the area a BD...- BDs happen because of certain synoptic mechanics. What happens is, you'll observe a S/W impulse that streaks SE through Ontario and toward NS... Behind it, there is a plume of +PP that sweeps at first S through Maine, then... turns SW enhanced to do so by the cold ocean GOM ...adding density to the air mass ..assist momentum and rolls until that extinguishes ...usually 10 mile SW of Kevin's back patio just to put some stank on it. That's why when true BD fronts cut into SE NH and NE MA ... and sweep to the Worcester Hills ( eventually...) folks claim to smell the ocean behind the boundary... and, why in April and May it can be shockingly obtrusively colder air. ...etc.. The over top distinction is that it comes in from the NE - front and flow behind the front. I've seen it drop from 80 to 48 at KBED while PF and Brian are still 80 in some extreme cases... That's not what that Euro is doing - not even close. That thing on the Euro is a front that sweets in NW and then pivots across the area ...effectively becoming a warm boundary that demarcates polar lingering winter from ( probably ) too much heat in the M/A

it's like a logic in itself ... yet, not connected to the empirical - based reality/ practical world - fascinating.

If it happens ... ? probably all summer -

OH ... I'm almost expecting the pattern to verify and SNE to eat shit while that success is happening -

Yeah I know - tell me 'bout it. Although, I might leave out the "...it seems," and opt for 'at any point in time', instead - Which for my own hypothesis bank, it's consistent with the ENSO model damping idea - forcing and losing correlative relationship at decadal scales ( ...so gradually losing...). The idea therein, the HC is absorbing it too deeply such that the thermal presentation/physics in the ocean-atmospheric coupled sense ...is become too removed from the gradient of the westerlies. If there is not detection there ...there can be no/less forcing - The ENSO states do not "mean" automatically x-y-z just because they exist. There has to be geo-physical circuitry, and what seems completely intuitive and obvious to say, ...that is connected in gradient ... seems to escape people in everyday practice. Summary: If the HC has engulfed(ing)(s) the termination latitude of the ENSO ... those state are disconnecting its ability to influence the westerlies - I think we are seeing that ..I had this discussion with Ray last summer about the dwindling El Nino thing ... and we were wondering if the same holds true/observable in the La Nina's ... Interesting, we immediately have a winter that did that ...

No ... I as talking about the afterward period ... the assumption/or expectation that the settling flow will just go into a western ridge after that "EPO burst" ... The combination of seasonal modulation WITH those background signals ...doesn't support that in my mind. It may though - I was thinking, we didn't exactly polish a very La Nina February, either... So perhaps that part of it is just not that factor-able. As far as the EPO its self ... I am wondering if the MJO may be "more able" to register a forcing in the flow as we are entering less gradient - window of forcing opportunity? something like that

Shouldn't easonal change be a modulating force there ? if the EPS is right about the EPO burst in the foreground, I'm not sure seasonal modulation makes that a safe assumption for afterward ... because, it is not just seasonal change that has me scratching my head. Longer termed pre-existing and ongoing super synoptic signals ( La Nina and HC ... ) don't really support it either. I've been hammering that I know ...but it's unfortunately true. It's not a metric in deterministic forecasting techniques as much as it is a "synergistic" awareness as to what can happen from that - So I guess what I'm getting at as that I don't have much confidence that we are set up for a nice winter assumption ...like this "enabling" EPS is presently fighting off those signals. Yeah, yeah...we've had blizzards in April too. I'll tell you though..it's baffling. The La Nina climate... The HC stuff... the GEFs... seeming to have telecon layout that looks at this time more like those signals ... yet, the EPS won't, and the operational runs also won't. To me that is an epic indicator battle - Taking a stab at the EPO part tho ... that looks like a direct EPS response to the MJO ...but the MJO is in negative/destructive interference trying to move momentum through Phase 8 ..and to me that's interesting. It could be the the flow relxation of seasonal change is sort of physically "allowing" more MJO exertion to begin registering - even though the winter MJO suppression was true, it may not be AS true...

Lol, ... the ever irrepressible 'not even exist' scenario cannot be rule out either

It seems we can present a case in both directions.. I'm inclined to think/ .. aver even, that we've suffered neggy NAO and or suppressed/belated springs over the last several back-to-back transition seasons. Yet, in that same time, there has been an unworldy 80F episode in a February! As well, a couple of exceptionally warm weeks in different March's, and one April in the last ten years ( can't recall which) had an Easter close to 90 F... So it has been odd behavior. Two Mays in a row had winter CAA with packing pellets and snow flurried busted virga CU ...and we're talking a month ..a single month before the Solstice - no one has really emphasized that with the alternating, blinking colorized bold font that it deserves. Yet, those weird early crazy warm episodes nested early ..

Extrapolating the D10 Euro would offer something of siggy scenario ... with that lag back SW pinch low ... ejecting/ .. suggestive eastward, open and naked to that sudden surged -EPO hybrid ridge over the western Canada... It would set a large subsume phase ( when the N/stream comes down and takes over a S/stream that is loaded with moisture, the Earth moves and angel's weep...) type into motion thereafter... And, with large reservoir of anomalous late season cryo slabbed over S and SE Canada edging the Lakes/OV/NE ...yet, a sick baroclinic field extending roughly Indiana to Cape Cod. Everyone ends the season 120% of normal snow totals if that sets up... Unfortunately, that is D10 ... The usual suspects in this forum will be excited and should not be... If you outfitted them with an automatic genital poker that stabs a testicle whenever they get excited about a D10+12 Euro, they would get excited about the D10+12 Euro...so it is futile to caution. The GFS is also doing this - ...I'd like to see the most recent telecon layout ... The last 10 days -worth of persistence has been arguing that these operational runs, that really show no interest in moving the season on to spring - curiously enough now that we are ending the first week of March and it will rapidly be "Equinoxial" in practice here shortly, are in fact instruments of the CC denier conspiracy. ...kidding, but convention of calendar, antecedent super telecon signals, and the f'ing sun itself, are all against the operational song and dance - folks don't care so long as D10 Euro has that look I supposed. In fact, next week's warm up has finally come into a better consensus - not bad in itself considering the fragility of warmth management in guidance during a hostile time of year... 2 ... 2.5 days of warmer than normal.. Normally I'd say 70 on Thursday is a likely MOS bust with thickness over 555 and a deep layer continental warm conveyor WSW flow that is well mixed through the lower BL ...blah blah, but climo and cloud both cannot yet be discounted at D6 enough to go comfortably ... 25+ over seasonal norms just yet... Thereafter, the complexion/ .. synoptics out there .. again, it is as though the operational versions saw this warm up next week merely like an early or mid February winter warm pulse and resume winter completely oblivious to the calendar. Jokes and sardonics aside.. I'd say it is more likely we have this warm spring sort of shot across the bow next week ..then, we slip back to climatology.