Typhoon Tip

it's funny ..I was just asking this question in my mind and I'm wondering .... there may be a lot more self resolved incidences, just not detected? It was dubbed in the early months of this thing as "self-resolved" .. kind of a catch-all for those that may be 'walking covid-cases'. I mean it's Just a thought - ...anyone that has had a sniffle and mild sinus headache that resolved inside of 2 or 3 days of it, but not so harsh that they'd even remember ...let alone suspect it as part of the C-19 ...may have actually had it. Or, some were asymptomatic, but maybe they were still going through some sort of partial immune adaptation that is incomplete.. wouldn't these 'walking' cases qualify ? I think I had this a year ago... It was a month before the WHO released their reunion album ...oh, I mean, a month before it was formally declared 'run for you lives!' ... But I've talked to enough checked out doctors off clock and enough pharmacists in passing, as well as the siege of anecdotal accounts. I suspect that declaration point in time is arbitrary and doesn't say shit about whether people were getting this perhaps 2 years ago - China's even been exposed as having had this in circulation longer... It seems there's some nebular clarity on what the real front side origin and timing really was. And since I work indirectly to the UMass Medical Community/Universities ... that's a potential vector - ..blah blah.. But I was sticken for 5 to 6 days... the middle 3 days of which were fever, dry cough, fatigue.. last of apatite ... One day of wet cough..but then on the 5th day ...fever broke and the cough went away suddenly ... I was a running and in shape ( still am..) so, .. it was a weird infection and unusual for me. And the symptom spectrum/sequence was covid incarnate. Nope... doesn't get to be covid because it was month early - f.u.

I know... I can't wait until we put some of these back-to-back-to-back ... I mean, at least with the temperature aspect. It's nice to have these one and done days but it's sort of tainted because the you know what's in store It seems that's the next seasonal maturation point: not having to turn around the next day and watch it all blast out to see with gale CAA. I was hoping that with a whiff/ .. or lesser impact and weaker low in general, the backside of Monday would ease off that .. it seems it is. The NAM is down to 27 mph wind gust lower then bald hill tops so it's progress. I think the next front in the series later in the week may be more like 80 to 60 as oppose to 70 to 42 though -

Oh cool Steve! Yeah this is more than less what I was hoping... What are the 'correlations' <-- suggestions therein/from... etc.. .

Bingo! and I sympathize - jesus... wtf. My parents are 75 and 80 respectively. One is a walking time bomb of comorbidities, the other maybe mild hypertension but has fully recovered from heart attacks 20 years ago... So, typical aging American stock and circumstance. Two shots. Nothing... My co-worker got two shots ... nothing. But my buddy who actually had Covid-19, and was put in the hospital on a banana bag IV and monitored for three days, ... released and since recovered, gets the vaccine anyway and it ko'ed him and put him back in the ER with 103 fever - borderline dain-bramage temperatures. My sister ... 42 and healthy .. zippo co-m's ... ends up couched for two days and pissed off: "they f'n just gave me covid, that what! " There's no pattern there. Is it maybe Pfifer is friendlier... ?? Is this just a moderna thing - If so, f Moderna

I still hunch this may whiff ... tomorrow's ordeal.

On the fence... Looking at the Euro 12z yesterday and comparing to the 00z last evening ... that's that is/was very poor continuity mid week on for this next week. Since when is bad run to run consistency a reason to assume the worse of a two scenarios has to be the truth? I will say ... in a vacuum, that run won't happen. Very high confidence in saying so.. It takes a D4 mere "dent", subtending below that SPV up there in northern Manitoba ( or which ever providence that is - I can never remember those for some reason..), and peels it away from the vortex; then, out of no where... where does it get all that mechanical power as it rips a hole clear to magnetosphere over Quebec? If there could ever be objective criticism of a run, that's it! - or are we just going to go with that - LOL. Nah, clearly...it fabricates amplitude there. The result does not satisfy the input - Over and over and over again... this model does this, D4 to 7 It just did this antic regarding later tomorrow... It had a raging cat-paw nor'easter along the eastern NE coast 4 days ago because of its fake introduction of amplitude. ... I mean, okay it may yet come back. I think it unlikely.. No, it's had to unfurl its bogus curvature correction, in time, to correct for its own error it introduced back when tomorrow was mid range. I think perhaps it does this surreptitiously ..or too subtle for a lot of people to really notice. I suspect its "correction" scheme that works so well everywhere else in the world, may not do so well over this region of North America. How/whatever they are doing at an operational application aside, the result seems to fold in curved surfaces ...perhaps in an attempt to "smooth" noise? But unfortunately... that is bad for this particular part of the world. The perennial pattern of N/A ( the based canvas) is perpetually trying sink the flow S over the Lakes - it's baser forcing that at times is overcome and we see ridging in the east...sure. But over the longer term, the basal structure dips east of the Rockies. It's because of super synoptic torque produced by lifting the ambient westerly motion of the atmosphere over the western N/A high country, with Coriolis. But by super-imposing that with the Euro correction washing, suspect it creates a "synergistic" ... or false constructive interference - adding too much amplitude to troughs kicked down stream of a 110 W. We cannot trust the Euro here in this region of eastern N/A for that range ... or at least, take those whopper trough bombs with incredulity. It may be why we don't see it on the ridge side of the anomaly...because ridging by nature of all this is not a tendency so there's no synergy there. But nerdy and some reading here - sorry ..but for a crew of public users that spends so much of their lives in consternation of the model cinema and what the next scenes will do to them on a personal level ( eh hm...) seem you could benefit from these observations. I dunno Anyway, having said all that ...I am on the fence because the PNA is rising in conjunction with a whopper phase 8 MJO tsunamis on the RMM ( both guidance clusters too!) ... and I'm just not sure a cooler regime won't evolve anyway given time. However, seasonal modulation of R-waves coherence/ .. eddy relaxation of gradient over all, might also interfere with these telecon signals ...

Having said that ... May whiff most unfortunately.

Personally I hope it rains 3” ... still can’t get my head around those fetishized to will no rain into reality. Wtf is that?

My hunch is a complete whiff with the southern ( quasi southern ..or whatever that is...) stream cyclone, as the previous more wrapped up deepener was a result of a partial stream phase with that wave N of the Lakes ... but recent guidance et al has clearly been trending toward keeping those two features from interacting much at at all at this point until well past our longitude. Part of that is owing to the mishandling of the NAO domain - ... More was causing the Lakes wave to dig a bit to where it could force phasing but that's not happening in recent guidance. Sunday .. partly cloudy with showers N country NNE associated withe N/stream clipping past, while the southern waves remains S ... cirrus and ultostrate deck over southern zones with hodgepodge in between there and central NE. we'll see... It also calls into question how much backside CAA really cuts in ... as these open wave solutions may not be done trending the whole contention yet further up and out and that would of course mean less backside

That ridge next week was flirting with really ballooning in some of the guidance ... The next run deflates a bit.. then bigger... Itt's like it has slow leak - heh... In any case, however warm it actually gets ... the theme re turning seasonal chapter seems to still be the main evidence. Fronts and oscillating air masses are less revoltingly cold, with more tepid fluctuations - most importantly - on the red side of the 540 - We've had some very warm days ... and also, overnight lows. They've been throwing off the means and making seem warmer than it has felt. It seems the cold targets 2:45 pm every afternoon some how, some way. ...jesus. But outside of rainy days if any ... looks like 60 to 80 range, as opposed to 44 F packing pellet snow flurries to 65, beginning tomorrow.

Scheduled for me first dose next Friday ... I know 6 people that are completed. And everyone of them experienced different severity, ranging from nothing to couched and pissed off for two days, but all report no affect by the first of the two. Who knows - based upon that it seems it's an utter crap shoot

Feels much much milder in between the attempt at stilling chill by the breeze. It may even slacken as the afternoon presses but ... actually the diurnal heating/BL expansion mechanics will probably tip canopies too. Tomorrow looks topico though - 72 in the NAM MET is probably typically 2 to 3 cool biased during high sun +8 850 mb and enough gradient to well mix us... Also d-slope added.. I bet pubes 76 at a few locations as a high but we'll

I have been since Feb 28th ... The Pacific needs to be watched though - the MJO "maybe" might sorta just kinda in away force the pattern a little...? Or not, but that's a weirdly scary signal on the RMM's I'm not a big proponent of the MJO ...I've always thought of it as a neg or pos interference thing - if it situates right in space and time, fine - boom... But if it doesn't, the wave doesn't seem to matter so much. It's an influence and enhancer to the flavor of patterns, but doesn't really dictate the taste. That's my personal view on that index and always has been... Throw in my hypothesis about the velocities and gradient soaking of the hemisphere tending to absorb .. as possibly muddying its contribution ( ENSO for that matter too - ), that much more .. It makes me wonder if its relevancy is tending to slip in the general use. But ...this is not winter. The gradients are relaxed .. the velocities concomitantly as well. So now we get a hugely robust Phase 8 buffalo ballz atmospheric tsunami of an MJO wave - I don't know if that is a coincidence of the atmosphere just not damping it 'as much' ... but forgetting that, if the seasonal hemisphere makes it less meaningful either way? who cares I guess. But if May ends up a dreary hell ... heh

Don't mean to impugn the brilliance of Mr. Epstein but oh yeah? - captain obvious - The track of the tornado will dictate what gets hit by the tornado. what am I missing ?

You know what heh.. I knew it would be when you said it was dry for that Sunday deal. I thought, " ..probably brings the warm look back then "

Today's a nape fail - Too much wind. Wind fades as a factor beyond say 72 .. 75 or so. Get it into the low 80s and the wind reverses as a need and ventilation is desired. But 51 here with white noise in the trees is a dong flogging

The NAM is an unmanned fire hose ...spraying low tracks some 200 naut mile track variance ...implicated cirro-strata dry ( 00Z version) to nearly an inch ( 06z version..) now somewhere in between .... While it is doing that ... also caution: the over amplitude and NWS bias of the NAM beyond 48 hours applies just the same as it does in any coastal/astride cyclone management. Still yet another way to look at it? why the f are y'all caring what the NAM things on Sunday ...lol just kidding i get it

I have no confidence in any evaluation right now.. The MJO is shockingly robust in the May blizzard range of the RMM migration... with every single member and cross guidance in a-bomb support of cryogentic black hole centered on Mt Watchusett ... lol.. If I saw that in January/February ... and we were not in a multi-century anthropomorphically enforced Global Warming attributed Hadley Cell expansion, I'd suggest that the Great Lakes, OV ... NE and MA start evacuation procedures now because of an extinction level climate attack on that region... But the HC has everything f-ed up and I don't know if the same tendency to mute the MJOs ...which was evidence all winter long, ...is still going on now that it is spring - with seasonal change comes a break down this and that... blah blah. I don't think it is a coincidence that as the hemispheric gradient is weakening ...taking the HC compression down as well...and the flow velocities everywhere are slackening and shortening wave lengths ... as presently evidenced, that the MJO suddenly presents like a cat in heat. It may be more effective at forcing the Pacific, due to no longer being damped and absorbed in the HC that no one wants to read about.. heh. IF it does/did ... it ain't gon' be no warmin' in May. The Euro has the same insane MJO signal too - just recurved a typhoon too if that were not enough. The GEFs and GFS started punching more trough into the E and f-ing up next week's previous warm signal. MOS MEX has cut 12 F off those explosive highs it eye-popped with, yesterday, ...out of nowhere, broke trends and looking banal and uninspired and almost normal highs .... Went from 18 over climo ( incredible to tamp climate in doing so...) all the way to almost negligible +MOS numbers on the 00z run... Nooormally I'd say that is a bad run and a continuity flop by a model that has a velocity issues regardless of what the hemisphere is doing... such that it ablates ridges to prodigiously - but the stuff above supports it. And I wonder if/when the Euro cluster may suddenly go, oops and pull the rug out ...bend us all over for a Pulp Fiction May ... Or not .. the R-wave disruption associated with seasonal change ...does effect how effective the MJO can disperse a wave forcing ... so, it could be a red herring and smoke screen. As far as the Euro's BD at D6.5 (~) meh... I think you were being hyperbole there - it's likely it's too cute with surface pp attributes...because the 500mb doesn't really look like a confluent BD machine ... In other words, noise made BD ... looks shallow and washing out D7 ... If anything, it may be a weak convergence left over and convection next Thursday ... Having said that... this is just in deference to that one run. We have to remember, this region reside in a perpetual state of KY jelly bums. From April to the end of June of ever year... it is "butt" a cursed geologic cold anus known as New England ... One should fully expect at this time of year for the pattern to just ... seemingly 'metaphysically' start engineering a BD anyway

This air mass is moderating already ... It's still windy but the type and texture of the sky has really abruptly washed out and the temperature has bounced from 42 to 47 here in the late sloping sun. The virga white pall sky has cleared out leaving a dappling of fractal fair weather Cu - there there is some virga plumes still along the NE horizon. So ...it was going to be short live anyway. 60 tomorrow if the NAM MET is right at FIT-BED-ASH... and 71 Saturday.. Pretty amazing to go that quickly around the corner. But with long days we can kind of see it happening - oh it'll probably get cold tonight when the wind abates .. 3 hours of decoupling.

Wow, I don't think I've ever seen MEX go 18 over climatology on a day 7.5 ... KFIT GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 4/22/2021 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 FRI 23| SAT 24| SUN 25| MON 26| TUE 27| WED 28| THU 29|FRI CLIMO N/X 33 59| 41 69| 48 56| 42 59| 41 69| 47 76| 50 79| 55 38 61 And honestly just looking over the synoptics on this 12z guidance it's understandable relative to that look, but that's also got to be really stressing against the climate normalization - I mean is that still part of the MOS calculation? That could 25 over by day, and 15 or more by night when the time actually comes... We've been gettng those kind of breaks from reality over recent years too. It's harder to get warm departures that high as the summer gets into it tho. Can you imagine being 25+ on July 20th ? you'd be a 115 in the shade

I know I do - heh

How does get their coifing to do that - it's like down to single strand tolerance in structural scaffolding -

I was discussing last year's couple of May events that were similar to this - though not quite as cold by virtue - most likely - of being 2 or 3 weeks later in the solar calendar. ..blah blah. But I was doing so under the auspices of it being part of this weird "N/A synoptic flow folding" tendency we're seeing more and more of during transition seasons ....during this phase of CC but eh hm... Anyway, I put today's event right in with those. It occurs to me, this is excessive by 850 mb thermal layout and 500 mb thickness - relative to April 22nd, it's late enough and more so fits into that general argument for me. I'm just amazed seeing the NAM's MET fire to 70+ for Saturday ... this isn't Boulder ... Therein, it's not just these cold CAA late spring events - it's also the phenomenal yawing between air mass types, too. Last year we suffered snow flurry and squally air snow in May and then it 96 at BTV 2 weeks later...

Yeah ...I've been joking among various sphere's - hopefully where inappropriate and as fear mongering as possible to poke the yellow-jacket's nest of paranoia ... - that the nano-bot administration sequence of the operation is almost complete ... ' Excellent. EXcellent. They'll make wonderful drones when we flip the switch '

Meh ...we'll probably fade into summer in a rain deficit to some degree but nothing too drastic. Parsed out over say 10 years, it'll just absorb into whatever that background longer -termed signal is, and won't ultimately matter - we just don't desiccate the landscape here like they do in west Texas or California ... To get that kind of impact here would require a much longer return rate ... probably on the order of Millennial in time scales or something... Just from common experience and exposure to planetary sciences et al ... it seems we can find deep coring samples far more revealing of flood events than the other way.