Typhoon Tip

Yeah.. .agreed, industrial scaled harvesting of heart-beat food sources, doesn't have a very flattering wrap sheet. What was always out-of-sight-out-of-mind, the world doesn't (or really can't may be apropos) intrinsically keep so under wraps any longer. Up throw mm 30 .. definitely say 20 years ago, the general population didn't know about what they were eating... Most importantly, how it got to dinner plate. Leaks about veal seem to start the meme engine of awareness, and chickens followed and ... using monkeys in labs.. All of it. Now? Virtually ever dimension of reality is disclosed(ing), and I really can't find packaging now that doesn't label, "humanely treated..." ... degree of truth, notwithstanding. To me, humane treatment is/was entirely the responsibility of the proverbial shepherd. Nothing more. If finding a vaccine for COVID-19 is say, 5 on the scale of 1 to 10, doing the former is 1.5... What can't be cleaned up? CO2 and CH4 - at least not without putting farms inside bio-domes, with 100% processing the air to reduce these greenhouse emissions so that what is inside the dome matches the back-ground Terran atmosphere, before out-gassing/exchanging air. Not pragmatic when there are technologies on the verge getting to the goal of dinner plates without such wild Sci Fi explorations. There are two distinctions. Humane treatment of animals is separate, and doesn't add or take away anthropomorphic GW - the 2nd of the two. It's kind of like Azomavian laws of robot conduct ... you know? the three? I was after a similar sort of rudimentary moral check-list for harvesting animals. So long as the factory harvesting did not violate this, "...Inside this definition ... also includes and must achieve, humane livestock conditions prior to abattoir,..." Personally, if "lab grown meat" is based on DNA biota, than it doesn't matter whether it came from a heart-beat or not - it's the same goddamn thing. ...Good luck explaining that to a society that is comprised of a disturbingly huge population of science deniers... but, if that can be overcome and it can be marketable and sustainable, and mass produced enough to feed the world, that's a big pie slice of the human industrial fart. Firstly ... can we change the name? Eating anything that is prefaced by "lab grown ..." is ewww. Conjures all kind of f'ed up disgusting horrors. Like, "It turns out ... cat shit is the best fertility medium for growing roast beef..." - kidding

Suspiciously as such ... the GEFs telecon spread backs away from the notion of cold spanning the last 10 days of the month. The present operational run is still attempting to suppress the main band/best identifiable axis of westerlies main jet, but it is hard to separate that from the model's native bias to buzz saw the tops off heights beyond it's mid ranges, no matter what time of the year or circumstance ... We'll see if the EPS begins to slowly collapse. It'd be nice to have a white Thanks Gig ... It's not a preference thing -

All these liberal high-roaders will lose their footing as moral supremacists, though. We can't have them poking their arm-pits and sniffing them for comfort, while rocking back and forth at the brink of apoplexy because they don't have that focus of elitist recreational outrage. What will they due without their gaslighting edge over everyone else? I'm kidding, ... sort of. But, I easily still imagine some ultra fringe purists, in some future realm where completely artificially engineered, grade AAA quality Tender Loin succulence is better than the real thing and a blow job, but still would not be ideally satisfying to their wanton ethical excoriation. Because, wait! - even though in such a futuristic realm, the consumption of artificial protein may not directly harm naturally or "organically" occurring life ( as well as other indirect positive feed-backs .. like carbon this, or Zoonotic epidemiology that .. whatever), craving and 'giving in' to the act of consuming those sources must still mean in "spirit," you are a blood lusty piece of shit jerk. My disenchantment of liberals is for that kind of liberalism. I mean obviously at a more fundamental and realistic perspective, the better vision for our species, is through a lens of social and economic relative equality. We know that has to happen within the simple mathematical framework that we cannot survive on a world that has been irretrievably toxified by the anus of Industry... It needs to stop there. It's either the greatest feat of arresting stupidity in the history of humanity, or, Darwinism at massive scales, but when 40 some odd percent of 7.5 billion attempting to rationalize away from accepting that simple premise in lieu of personal gain, ...well... that's all a much longer philosophical digression .. Presumptive ideological superiority over others, isn't that 'mathematical framework' - particularly when the motivation to do so is borne of idiocy masquerading as intelligentsia, whereupon further reflection - usually after one leaves the room - you see holes in their debate. I realize the following perspective may or may not be in sync with present company's, however: I have zero/none/nada/no problem with hunting for provisional sustenance. Inside this definition ... also includes and must achieve humane livestock conditions prior to abattoir - broad industrial herding [ enter huge philosophical dissertation here ] is just hunting done at grander scales ... I have an absolute/unforgivable/useless piece of shit human problem with hunting "for sport," or, procuring meat sources inhumanely/entitled demeanor. I don't have a problem with anyone that chooses to eat animal-based sources, provided the procurement satisfies the above two conditions; therefore, the arrival in technological history ( i.e., perhaps now ...) where human innovation creates provisional sustenance without violating those two basic tenets or principles, inherently moves us toward that goal/directive - yeah. As an afterthought ... purism and purists views are unrealistic outside of the conveniences bubble that protects them. Operating inside of Industrial civility's enabling machinery, is intrinsically in a state of hypocrisy, when those who uphold such ideological musings as morally superior, do so from a perch of well-nourished codependency. Pick up a shovel... Pick up a hoe. Toil eternally, with nothing more - because that's your only existence without that for which you clearly are unwittingly taking for granted.

Maybe we can will a cold pattern suggestion to actually not dampen closing in this time.

That GGEM solution would probably bring damaging wind at the end of that run.

Apparently there was snow in the air down to the road surface of rt 2 in nw Mass yesterday with CAA instability/oreogrphics

Actually ... it would take several weeks to know or 'look' like anything ...until FEMA or Military AW101 helos had a chance to penetrate the naturally occurring WMD "glacial blast radius" ... maybe to those outside that zone. being hyperbolic of course...

That is the beast of all cryo monsters. Imagine that now ... I mean it comes to be a trope, because we say that all the time with the "fragility" of civility's various dim-witted planning vs exposure and vulnerability profiles. Like ... Long Island drinking a lot of Ice Tea thinking they could put a trillion dollar of infrastructure and real estate out there, and NOT have a Category 4 freak 'cane express over... Or of course NOLA.... Or how about the Canary Island bifurcating geological tsunamis basically going all the way across the Florida Peninsula... zaggeratin but just makin the point. Anyway, 1921 was still an era threading the grid - it was not nearly as embedded and wholly relied upon as it is now... Not even the same f'n world man. So yeah, used turn of phrase or not, 3 to 4" of accretion pan-dimensional in scale would be a level 5 catastrophe - basically, complete failure.

wait a sec ... do you realize? that was 15 f'n years ago. FIF TEEN

This picture always reminds me of Mt Washington

I vote a new definition be employed hence forth: 'The Raymond Effect' Anyone that asks ... direct them to your post and prefix, "for example"

2008 ? Yeah, the aspect of that even that stood out to me was how the fringe townships like Acton and Littleton... Maynard ...basically between towns along/asride I-495 that were below the bigger accretion level, lost power for a day or two ...due - it turned out - to compensating grid drag effects. We started blue glow buzzing the night horizons all around us as transformers started domino-ing, shorting out from current reroutes - I thought that was fascinating. As it were, in the morning we had about 1/4" of accretion - interestingly ... - along just the tops of all tree canopies in town, but from mid tree heights to the ground was just damp with no ice. No ice on the car tops or windows, either. That's about as "marginal incarnate" as is imaginably can be demonstrate by an open natural setting.. weird. Never had seen a melt line literally 30 feet off the ground like that. Either way, ... 1/4" isn't enough typically to induce a whole town outage...and we were told that it was drag on the system from the drain.

Not to be overly fastidious ... but, I think it depends also on mass-field orientation. What I mean is, the trajectory angle of the overriding warm column (at its particular given temperature/DP mixing ratio) plays a factor in it's 'erosion' capacitance. A WSW override doesn't need 'as strong' a due N a-geo, to hold cold in. But a due S one, would time the cold retreat/moderation at the surface, inland, faster. Perhaps a key ratio can be derived, ..like, resulting in 1 in the arithmetic; 1.1 results in warm air winning sooner... .9 results in cold air overwhelming and going more pellet ptypes. Pseudo science to make the point - Sufficient influx of DP to offset latent heat of phase change, is in just the right proportion to erosion ( in and out in balance), is all it is needed, and matters less characterizing either side of the boundary as strong or weak, just don't clobber the other side and the icing is static

I mean solar factors. But so does ENSO... and lately, HC expansion theory. ... PDO/AMO ... bad or good luck. Pick. Personally, I'm a little less clear on the discrete difference between CME and UV, in the total concept of solar AO correlation/causality. Namely, I wonder actually if the two have the same modulating impact on the Ozone concentration within the upper altitudes of the AO domain. CME's are like clouds of high-energy charged particles ... traveling at Sci Fi dream velocities... But they are not UV (ultra violate ), which is an electromagnetic wave phenomenon ( photon type ). It just so happens that when magnetic entanglements burst over the solar disk, CME mass often coexists with a flash of UV.. The UV gets here in 8 minutes! The CME... up to 72 hours in some cases. Such that active sun-spot eras also are increased UV eras ... But I am not sure that either interacts/effects Ozone in the same way. I happen to know that UV is the appropriate wave length to disassociate 0zone ... I am not sure if these high-energy particulates also do the same, specifically - The impetus there: 0zone is very responsive to thermal absorption from planetary wave phenomenon decaying at very high altitudes - simply termed, it is where warm air advection at mid and upper troposphere, terminates and fade.. usually above 60 N, at very high altitudes. Those plumes interact within the PV at high altitudes, and if there happens to be a +anomaly Ozone concentration, that proficients in absorption "flashes" an onset of warm atmospheric mass ...that starts the whole thing. That mass then ( might ) propagate back downward (crucial behavior in the -AO forcing ), while spreading laterally in space. It usually takes a couple weeks to compete that downwelling... When it reaches the height of the tropopause ( usually around 200 mb, averaged all seasons at those latitudes), its downward momentum weakens the cyclonic physical manifold of PV... ( has to do with ambient stablizing/DVM). Vortex weakens to varying degrees. The ring westerlies around the pole begins to lose coherence, severs... and then alternating troughs and anticyclonic nodes formulate ... a.k.a., 'blocking' and that's the ball-game. +AO --> -AO So, if UV is destroying 0zone, that "cleanses" - for lack of better word - such that the normal dispersion of wave events doesn't "flash" warm events. This is why low solar activity in summer and autumn, tend to precede years with Sudden Stratospheric Warming events - but the key word there is 'tend'. The complexity in this whole relationship manifold is mind boggling. "how much" solar is detrimental to "how much" Ozone is present - perhaps event 'type' of Ozone - are moving amounts in time. That's probably break-point/threshold headaches in hell to uncouple those and figure out what those critical values of either, are. Plus, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation ( west vs east ) is also correlated to the SSW, apparently - makes one wonder if the QBO is indirectly, statistically significant wrt the solar, too. It seems it has to be. Ooph. But ... the forcing appears better explained in the other direction. Anyway, this summer and autumn the sun has decided to go ahead and start firing CME's at the Earth. I don't know what the longer termed UV numbers look like, but I suspect they are somewhat above normal because the two tend to coincide. Lastly, the onset of propagating SSWs doesn't dictate the AO's seasonality a given year. There are -AO and +AO winters, on whole, that may or may not have featured SSWs.

Well heh .. there is a giant gap filled with forces between "strongest solar sun spot year," and a "very good winter." The former does not necessitate that latter, either way -

Was it though ? I think the definition/interpretation has been through the 'human definition adaptation mill' - SO ... my contribution to the rumor canard is that it has to be 28 for three consecutive hours for a hard freeze. And a Freeze is < 32 but above that lower bound for 3 hours. And a headline-able frost doesn't necessarily have to freeze. I could swear I read this when I was like 11 ... but maybe the 'official' definitions have changed over the years. Or, what I read 387 years ago wasn't true to begin with.

It is… We’ll see if it holds or if it fades like so many before it. It could actually fade half and just be nothing for us still verifying

The cool wave for the 3-9th has moderated down the stretch - sorry it has... That is the 2nd time this has happened since October 20 or so -... One can wonder if the latter November idea does the same thing - perfectly valid. At least for me and whatever I said... that much is worth the question based on seasonal trend - albeit early .. admittedly. If this were Vegas I might put money down as a pass-over bet between bigger games... Part of the problem is, that's been doing that in the models for years now. Euro... GFS ? doesn't matter. Any cold, hot, storm or phone # I get from a girl at a f'n pub, overwhelmingly verify something less than initially advertised. We'll see - we may end up cooler out whence but I'd be little surprised at this point if it is as deep as EPS variance. It'll probably be on the warmer inner curve of that mean if that last 7 years has any meaning

You know ..., and we have now cycled through two distinct intervals where/when the models ( and even telecon spreads ) signaled at minimum, a seasonal cool spell, ..but then, they moderated as the days clicked off and what we got was barely normal. I'm already getting a little gun-shy about cold and here we are all of November 3rd. I guess it's early ... there may be a bit of interpretation magnification. I mean, storms, cold or heat alike, all seem to come into extended ranges ominously...then correct toward manageable. An error aspect of guidance that's been happening for several years, frankly. But maybe in a month one of these cool waves will be deep enough to correct to 'still somewhat negative' instead of disappearing.

Did anyone else notice the 12z guidance' et al pretty much kissed the back of the donkey's balls ?

Yup ... My own muse: interestingly, the Euro scoring - it never was this 'iffy' ( for lack of better description) at D 4's. Last night's run as the sets that synoptic table along the SE coast and astride Atlantic, as the outlier already - My personal experience with the Euro over ... the last 20 years really ... is that it has two rather dependably timed, broadly painted amplitude strokes that it washed synoptic finishes - those being the relay from D5 to 6 ... then again, D 7 to 8. *Usually* on the short side of D 5's ... about 10 years ago, that model could not be beat. But it seems I have seen more occurrences in the recent .. 4 or 5 years of that guidance were D4 is come into question - based in no small part that its 'bust'/error frequency seems to have increased. It's still a very good model. I mean ...we are not taking it down from the top of the totem pole ( like this culture likes to meteorite impact fame at least excuse imagined ...and we judge the same way in here...) .. It'll be interesting this next run here in a little bit, to see if these other guidance sources start bumping that coastal closer to the coast. One thing we have to consider is that the governing mechanics for that would-be storm are coming off the Pacific along a rather flat trajectory - as is such, almost purely assimilated. Assimilation has come a long way and ...yeah, probably unlikely that it is the present reason for model-to-model variance. Still, that probability isn't 0. We have seen systems in the last 10 years be all but pancaked out to sea entirely, and then 48 hours out they came 'storming' back in the guidance, too - The only reason it matters is because there's this tide concern.

It's more than just upslope.. ( to the straw dude - ) The nose ( exit ) region of a 500 mb S/W is approaching from southern Ontario. This is causing some lower level convergence extending along/over the St L Seaway at the surface. Along and in front of this axis, west flow flow through lingering continental moisture supply ( delayed growth/soils ) but most likely also modest thete-e flux off Huron, Erie and Ontario probably factor. Topographic-forced accent as those west trajectories arrive then is combining with some scaled lift potential from the above mechanics, with a modest difluence with the approach of that jet etc.. So you get a bit of synergistic feed-back there... too, sure. There's meso-beta scaled baroclinic leaf passing into the region as illuminated by IR, with cooling/cold cloud tops - The whole of it has enough synoptic support ... I'd argue this is your first synoptic event of the season - however limited to just aesthetics it may be. I think it should be noted, frankly.

33 frost #2

GEFs not opposed to the notion ~ Nov 15/17 breakthrough. Though it appears to be more in the emergence phase/showing up in that cluster ... Usually when this happens, the signal matures, or turns out faux - but having cross- source support is obviously not a bad omen either. The operational GFS is really doing it's typical grind act on the warm up, too ...tending to pancake it S of 40 N and aiming Pac waves like torpedoes along NP - southeast Canadian exit, which tends to cut boundaries south... But its main change is clearly nearing the end of the extended. Long haul

all fixed - sorry if anyone tried to pm/txt ...