Typhoon Tip

Not a bad comedic take there - no. Fits ...heh. But I don't think we can - I think we gotta now-cast this beyotch. These spins are more like a chaos lows inside of a bag of general processes that are too discrete even for the higher resolution models to really nail down - it's like they ( NAM .. RGEM ..HDRP... gonorrhea ..whatever) are too discrete for their own good, because they are not discrete enough - They also have different convective sequencing/physics built into their models than the Global scales - or at least used to ... I also wonder ...as this whole thing wobbles through the heights do fall ... that should in theory destablize the column. So then they're handling this along when suddenly, they see their own tale! They start chasing it - ... 'oh, why shit - better spin up a 150 naut mi wide EOF1 tornado then' Kidding of course, but because their own generate instability, subsequently triggers a convective responses -

It is hard to know what is real and what isn't ... computer enhanced hallucinations ( rip from War Games ) within that inner chamber of this thing's busted ravioli low pressure. I mused an hour ago that it was almost as though the models can't see completely inside that wobbling mess of frenzied meso whirls that are tusseling and arguing for supremacy ... Taking this symoblic representation even further - it's like the governance is weak and irresponsible and won't delegate authority - a metaphor for ultimately this total trough evolution doesn't 'quite' have the mechanical power to focus matters into a singular cohesive entity. In any case... once in a while the models get a better glimpse and then we see it crack off an over-achiever that tries to take the reign and anchor the trough ..but they're just as likely noise results within the numerical instability of this whole thing's evolution. Thing is ... I love ( really hate in present context - ) when we say, " I'm not buying," in front of x-y-z ... Not an issue with the person, it's a problem with the vernacular - because ... these models do not put out solutions that are physically "im"possible ... That would be bad - what the f would we ever be using if that's the case. The rest is what we call the rarer coup de etat winner model - sometimes I just want it to be an ICONic NAM-eramma ding dong model just to chap the asses of modeling conceit. lol

Sure did ... looks like .4 (avg) added back ... just off the top of my head. I never took that seriously though with that NAM .. it's like a dealing with a intelligent, 16 year-old daughter, unfortunately equally afflicted(ing ...as in people around her) with emotionally/insecurity loose canon neurosis with that thing - But the grid (FOUS) was back to 1.83" from storm's main bulk, ... afterward, that 24 hours of glutting richest sets in... That stuff to me - btw - has the potential to come down a bit more appealing than the radar, but I almost want the wind to relax some for that too ..hm. The last event had that look to it, too, as you may recall... but it didn't pan out so well. It looked to me like the lower soundng dried out too much in those intervening periods between the main stuff and the arrival of the beefier arctic desert. I don't know if I see a drying source this time. We'll see... General reader: Logan also has a sneaky warm low level to 35F ... but not until the ballast of said heaviest is in the books; has the impression that the CF probably wobbled NW for a couple hours around the end of bulk goodies. Could see it being 27 F at BED at that tie... Otherwise 32F while ~ 10” falls in 6 hrs on the grid. There occurs ~ 5” in the 6 hrs prior to that 10 ... and depending how much low level mixing in that end pesky interval determines how much of it us 3 or 4”, waffle batter or just cat paws for a brief stint ... Winds are never greater than 40 deg angled ... NE 38 kt sustained at maximum!!! We got us a bona fide mo’fuggass Nor'easta bitches But that’s all out at Logan .. in the stupid harbor. With those grid numbers, the synoptic realism is probably pure snow out toward Cambridge ... and Jer' dawg... and beyond. I just have trouble with 1030+ mb height draped climo -ideal and all those closing centers SE of NYC -PVD line ... That's a compact CF period -

The reason for that is because this entire system's hemispheric footing is hugely teleconnector supported, but only partially fed into by actual S/W mechanics. It's been the over-shadowing theme in all guidance in this thing from the get go. One can see that if they observe the 500 mb height evolution over the last week's -worth of runs - the entire L/W aspect of the trough opens up, rather than the more typical deal where a big wind/max and DPVA event forces height fall feed-backs; like the surrounding medium is 'pulling away' from the ~ mid Atlantic instead. The western N/A ridge bulges as the last of the recent -NAO block tendency rotates through the Maritime, geometrically abandoning the cross-haired mid Atlantic. It's an usual evolution - which is why ( imho ) the top CIPs contender analogs really don't look very appealingly like they fit - not to me anywho...I can argue why ( veraciously! ) but this is a paragraph that needs to shut up at this point because the profound introspection of the modern Twit-spheric reader probably isn't making it to this "." The surrounding super-synoptic circumstance thus only offers modest actual 'constructive interference' within the virtual framework of the model(s) .. within that realm, the modest S/W feeds are giving back solutions that just can't quite - ugh - focus a low that does a more coherent singular entity and capture/F-wara sequencing - instead, we end up with a broader center with multiple centers .. in reality, as the GGEM shows, a more cohesive bomb "could" materialize ...nothing we've seen before that in the guidance ... ( last night through now and probably through this evening ) is really that low. You what this reminds me of... ? It's almost like the models "can't see" inside the nucleus of the trough, and are guessing/inferring SOMEthing is there. Meanwhile... maybe these late HRDP this and GGEM that ( and the UKMET laughing when the former two make their jokes means it's an abetter ... heh ) maybe these models are the first to see what/where the more important resulting cyclonic response from all this stuff was destined to happen. I mean c'mon ..that's what that is.. This anchor low spitting and shearing off basically warm frontal meso lows toward the NE...and then suddenly, one of those bombs to 973 with a vicious no-warning isollabaric wind thrashing transporting a shattered 7.8" of snow in 2 hours in the GGEM .. that is the storm!

This whole thing has gone above expectations for me anyway – it’s all gravy to me LOL I mean I was pretty clear all week that I thought this was a protracted moderate event ...so long it would approach major by virtue of culminating affects. This last day’s worth of runs seem to be engineering more of a major thing ... it’s just still not consistent ...it’s pissing me off I almost wonder if what actually verifies is less resurgence Tuesday night and just a longer front side event ... I think what the models are doing is shearing the initial low apart, and then using the residual upper level mechanics to formulate a new low that then hooks around and clobbers again ... and Jesus Christ ...I don’t know if I believe all that ...?but I haven’t really been talking about it because I don’t know there’s so much about this whole thing that’s f’ed up to begin with where does one begin

Feel the same way bro

“Overcooked Ham” in Hollywood is an expression for somebody who’s melodramatic and over acting a part ...

Its my fuggin phone. Sposed to say ‘doubter-ham’ do you ever heard of the expression “over cooked ham” ? just modulating the trope for snark

Heh ‘posed to say ‘doubter’ but iPhone auto correct so .., daughter may be better. Ha

I dunno ... +5 SD easterly anomaly moving into and up underneath an intensifying frotogenic axis ... all of which is slant wise tapped into the left and right entrance 300 mb extraction jet has a tendency to drop 30” (Dec 17) 2” QPF has more potential than we may over think; and this thing’s duration anyway with all that morphing into a CCB has over cooked doubter-ham bust written all over it in the interest /respect of consensus I grudgingly capitulate to 12-18” but I’m in the deep end of the pool for this adult swim ...

It's snowing 20" ORH-BED-YOU

Stepping back ...however, I'd put that at dubiously over evolved.. The flow being so fast in that pattern means the timing of the N/ stream/SPV subsuming down through the Upper Midwest earlier on D7 has to be pristine to pull that off, and at this range ? unlikely to prevail thru to verification. It can ...sure - just unlikely ..

I think in this case that may be needed ... These -NAO is behaving kindly wrt climate, in that these are modest permutations ... fluctuations in the neutral to -1 ...maybe brief 2 before relaxing ... pulsating on a 5 day periodicity. And with a steady diet of Pac energetics rippling through middle latitudes of the continent - very good petridish... Only, we don't need 504 dm super nadirs parked over JB because that's "too much of a good thing" - I saw the GGEM 's 12z ...It really was close to a very substantial event from the lower OV-NE regions because of the same governing reasons ... narily missing a subsume phase because the separate stream velocties are too excessive.. The Euro is about 20% ( ediit: actually much more than 20 ...) more stream fused/harmonic .. and we see a bomb there.. Really, the ensembles of the GEFs hint a fast mover too - Something is there for Feb 8-11 .. .but in this renewal of a faster hemisphere S of 55 N ... it probably biases on the front half of that range. Hints were there 2 days ago in the GEFs btw...We've been distracted by shenanigans in the foreground.

What a fantastic bomb on the Euro!

I'm seeing a Euro solution that's 'denting' the 850 mb isotherm SE more so than priors and that - as I've outlined before,...- is climate friendlier than that warm intrusion look. Considering having 1030+ polar high draped through Ontario/ N/NE of Maine...and already entrenched in the region, a correction and closer discrete handling of the isotherm/compression toward SE zones ... pretty much has to happen here - sorry. Also, again .. again .. again .. + 1C at 850 with sub above between that level and the growth region of the sounding, and isothermal beneath that... inside of which is a saturated cauldron of dense falling snow is only going to cause parachutes to 1/4 visibility .. You really have to be +2 C through perhaps 100 mb to get all the way to cat paws, if/when fall rates are heavy.. in that sort of UVM parked over isothermal sounding - This crushed the 1997 Dec 23rd forecasters when the 850 was +1 then... I remember that as the then, "ETA" FOUS had +3 at the SFC, and +2 and -1 at 980, 900, 800 mb levels respectively, ... how did that turn out.

I'm seeing nuanced reasons ... more and less valid, to not trust any guidance' singular handling of this system really - For now I am taking the 48 hour EPS and the 72 hour EPS, and using those to canvas this. out of those standard metric(s)/synopsis 101. This following/below is a collage of the 00z EPS' sfc/500mb heights, 850 mb temperatures... and personal experience/climatology ... that translation of 500 mb heights and surface cyclone track, while that 500 mb deepens that dramatically, with 850 mb therms never exceeding 0C NW of extreme coastal NJ to KBED up in Massachusetts ... is typically 10+" ( as conservative entry -) from N NJ to SE NH ... and closer to 20" is frequent throughout history wrt to those two canvasing metric/behaviors therein. I almost want to just say, 'period, case closed,' draw off my pipe and reengage the slow rocker -but I'm a bloviator and you know I can't resist lol Adding or subtracting from that canvas ... based on meso this... or whatever that, but there's too much data flying around that is obfuscating the picture of this thing at this point. More so than any blizzard it may or may not cause. Sometimes the simpler explanation turns out to be the truth.. I don't know if I buy these QPF gaps. This is not 1992 wet snow with a lower growth region in a CCB sounding that's going up and over orographic striations inland ... imposing systemic lee-side drying... I don't see that. This is mid level bonkers! There's likely to be a compression of the thermal field along an elevated frontal slope as it escapes slantwise polarward ...as the 500 mb initial flow begins to veer aloft and up-glides that interface ... I admit to wanting to see more 300 mb difluence but there is some...Both left and right entrance regions of accelerating jet at that level is moving NE out of central NE ...~ 48 hours, so that helps.. That's your elevated WAA instability burst - all snow even to the Borne Bridge at onset.. Then, the models are closing off the 700 mb in tandem with the height falls above that ( abv ) and when that happens, the whole column destablizes with these direct feed, saturated inflow jets ongoing beneath and in that level. There should be almost synergistic returns out of that and if anything this should be over-achievably proficient in this look - I comment in snark ( but sort of privately meant it...), how we have been witnessing in the Global scales, all precipitation events being prolific as anomalous - that appears to be primarily relative to climatology, but I suspect that the models are doing this shorting' too. Why? Because we are witnessing that, empirically. The Dec 17 ..easy example: 30 to 40" NY state to CNE? No, wasn't modeled... These "flukes" are more common because [ enter denial of truth here ]... Here we are faced with a synoptic circumstance screeeeaming for over production.. . 8-12" ...I don't know if I buy that, when the climo for that look described above in that collage is really color-by-numbers for snowstorm idiots. I guess we'll see.. But, I think the Euro is too warm in eastern zones with that 1030mb + high antecedent and entrenched. And when the pressure falls E of the Del Marva, the flow in the interior up here will lag respond, but when it does, we'll have a NNE wind and [probably] much better defined and locked CF somewhere over SE Mass/ Scotts back yard...or thereabouts. I could see Boston mid way bouncing 35 to 29 and then back to 34 ...back to 30 ... as this feature wavers there ... I would also not worry about the 850 mb getting to +1 C ... in fact, with heavy fall rates, that's probably parachuting right through that layer, because in this scenario it is isothermal near-enough to 0C beneath that level to the surface ... not warm enough to melt dense mass falling frozen phase states through it. That's wrt to the EPS above.. .But, I have to admit, I've been through enough of these and given these orbital perspective/synoptic inidcators leading this...the 00z/06z/12z NAM FOUS SFC-800 MB temperature profile at BOS tends to be right ... well, here: OUTPUT FROM NAM 12Z JAN 31 21 TTPTTR1R2R3 VVVLI PSDDFF HHT1T3T5 BOS//682122 -3318 283306 22869192 06000581844 -1418 260102 25929493 12000652846 -0319 271602 27949493 18000796833 -0619 260809 29969393 24000807532 00618 220717 32999295 30000898861 00521 180726 34009596 36050989136 13314 100537 39009996 42094975022 02016 020438 40009699... this means 32F at 980mb ( basically mid way up the Prudential..), ~26F @900mb, ~30F @800mb, 9.5" of snow! 48019974808 -0306 960328 39019900 54007945222 02005 943620 38990000 60006946420 -0307 943617 36980099 If these grid were incongruous wrt to the total synopsis ..okay, but it dead f'n fits in my mind and I actually think even the higher res Euro is not really hitting the local/studies/ and meso shit that that the old salts yarn how, "we used to have a saying - "

It’s not the first run of a model across the saga of this thing that has done that… The icon at 06Z also implicated a blizzard. It’s just these last to run cycles since then it’s done weird fercokta things. This run it’s ever so slightly weaker aloft so it fails to pin the capturing ...then forms a new low far out at sea and hooks it toward the Maine coast - that’s why we’re getting the QPF split. Not that anyone asked ...my feelings are this is trying to get to a major impact. I just think that it’s almost like you guys are being f’ed with just doesn’t want to give it to you because the machine intelligence of the models have become self aware and know how much you want it lol

It’s inching since 0Z last night

Nice collage and effort here ! no not trying to nit pick ( seriously ...) but I have such vivid memories of the week leading and throughout that 1996 event to confidently argue, it is/was really only similar as it landed on the EC in that 7am window of the 8th that year. The frames leading got there differently and that very much matters in my mind - what that sort of signifies to me is this storm is relatively unique ..if that's 96 variant is a top dawg comparison - although that QPF distribution (presently...) looks similar. 1996 was a close roller that ran into a cold loaded damming event ... This is closing and deepening in the other direction - just sayn' But I do think hemispheric and "super synoptic" ( mean synergistic effects ) this system is rather unique. It's formulating in the R-wave seam ... which is why it is moving so slow. The one 1996 was in a slower medium/flow rate. Perhaps it doesn't matter "how" we get there - agreed... I mean it is what it is. If it does similarly when it's there who is gonna care. Lol. But, ... this one I think has a bit of dark uncertainty to it because of that "Lagrangian" wave space.

Rightful to be skeptical of that ...heh... yeah - but the thing is, someone - I feel - in this is getting their ass handed to them. I don't know where. The GGEM cluster has been closing off the mid level centers earlier and thus that appears mid-level dosing down there... Because the surface reflection and pressure arc already has them on a N/NNW wind... I think that's even a borderline d-slope trajectory there.. It's like when we see a 60 hour NAM putting out 1.13" of 6 hourly liq equiv QPF at Logan on a NW ( 330 deg wind) in the FOUS...? Never happens.. by the time that interval is 24 hours, it's like .21, with RH of 38 .. which means that .21 was on the front edge and it's actually clear during most of that 6 hours. ..And all that 1.13" glory is pummeling D.E.M.

that's a good way to put that in this scenario - It's like booking a cathedral conference hall for a little-people convention

It's just I ..yeah, it's got enough to go big, even exceptionally so .. ... but nothing is... huh - I don't know if I have that much sack -

that's a crazy story man - wow. Someone is manipulating the modality of the market ... lots of set up triggers on shorts - too many and it seem dubious to me.

Heh.. I'm a eye-rolling at times, frustrating at other times ... complimented mash up between creative rhetoric and technical terms - best to try and not follow me in any academic sense. I don't wanna be responsible for your flunking any essay exam questions. hahaha

Something that's bugging me about these snow products ...other than the usual eye-rolling. It's that we've been living in this multi-decadal climate bubble were everywhere it snows on the planet, it does so at a greater proportion than expected - its a matter of how much. Dec 17 ? just one out of a hundreds events that can be used to exemplify this. We knew there was a whopper CSI signature in that thing - personally I thought it was rt 2 but it positioned where so ... meh, fine. But, 30 inches? Hell, the entire month of 2015 Feb .. list is deeper than the snow ... No one saw that coming - nope... Yet we have a closed deep layer anomaly and easterly fetch clear to 300 mb and difluence above that fanning away from the region ... over top a sfc - 850 mb that's blue cold 12" okay - It's not a complaint... I'd be happy with 5" .. I don't nee to have trouble getting to the gym and store to get the point across personally...but, that seems like it should be a 24" glacier from PWM to N Jersey ..