Typhoon Tip

And it's so persistent, and common among all guidance. So much so it reeks of some sort of technological or systemic aspect about 'modeling technology' in general. Maybe something that emerges when they are only so constrained ... becomes more amplitude than is real, out in time. If they can't "do it all" perfect, the little bit of uncertainty squirts out emergent events in a sense. It's complex shit ..but, we learned in college in free discussion in FAST II that the only way to really forecast with 100% accuracy out in time, is to know precisely two aspect: one, what every quantum momentum state in real time is, of every incalculably large number of particles that make up the fluid mass of the atmosphere; two, predict the future of what/when/how/why those particle will "emerge" forces (chaos/fractals in other words) via synergistically in their interaction, and/or unknown outside influences to the system - which by definition of 'unknown,' therein represents a particular problem... Now..."I'm just a caveman and your fancy flying machines frighten me" ...but that 'sounds' a good deal like God to me. Lol - particularly in the latter of those two. The first one...mm, maybe in some sort of far off futuristic Star Trekkian landscape of utopian technological wonder that kind of measuring can lay-in the initialization grids ... Even if so the computing power there after ? Even with these so dubbed PITA FLOP drives that can do like trillion cubit calculations in nano time, that'd be like asking a chimp to solve E=MC2 ... may take awhile. Definitely need to call in "Data" and "Geordi LaForge" on that one... Ha. 'Course, by extension of Moore's Law ...any capacity to do all that ...prooobably has the ability to 'control' the weather anyway... Somehow with some kind of Quantum Scale Oscillation core of the Weather Modification Net, so to speak ...and there's no reason at that point to predict anything - the weather will be exactly what they want it to be. Can you imagine how silly this cinema rush weird addiction in here would be if the charts were being created in Kevin's basement?? oooh sign me up - I dunno - but it's been down right dependable. Throw a D12 giant thing on he charts, then spend 80 cycles figuring out how to get rid of it... IF you have a historic bomb on a D9 chart, you get a pedestrian/ mid -grade event. If you have a mid grade event, you get nothin'... Unless it's Dec 17 lol ... I mean there have been some that worked out..

It was warmer than that still back WSW toward Lowell on the 29th - Oh yeah... 3/29 was 87 up there on the monitor for the UML weather lab station - curious actually why KASH was 73... hm... Either way, the next day on 3/30 was 88, and then 3/31 was 89! zomb ... I've spun yore about what happened later on in the evening of the 31st that fateful day. The greatest backdoor front attributed, 1 hour temperature declination I had ever prior to, or since experienced while being a resident to anywhere east of the Hudson. I did once come close in 2003, while working a gig that was set above the CVS at the 900 block of Comm Ave..across from B.C.'s then being built arena/rec center... It was 93 ish at 1 or so P.M. It was mid April ... Like all of 10 minutes passed the Labrador Current's seasonal nadir as it kisses by New England's coast as nice little foreshadow ...hm, maybe 89 in March and 93 in mid April isn't entirely synoptically stable - you think? In she swept! I distinctly recall the sky had two layers plainly observable: one was the on going cumulus ... the arriving BD was too shallow yet so the failed towers continued leaning NE... while underneath, shallow sailor's spirit scud racing SW... Peering down from that 2nd floor over the Red line stop there... college girls clad in short-shorts with exposed thighs and halter tops stood arms crossed in huddles ... probably quite confused. It was already 49 with wind funneling up the Ave. Ended up around 41 or so by early evening all through Metrowest... On March 31, 1998 it was 84F at 6 pm 3 hours after touching the 89. It was 37F at midnight, 30 F of which shed in < 30 minutes between 7 and 8pm... You talk slammin' screen doors and snapping flags? man - this was no 22 kt puffer BD ...these were whole gales for 15 minutes when that sucker ripped through. Oh it was classic too - the 3pm analysis still back in the DIFAX days (although the web was catching on as a transmission/data dependency...) displayed a powerful S/W slicing SE just NE of Caribou up over far E Ontario...and immediately in the NVA region behind the cold frontal teeth were point literally not figuratively SW ... like it was a true BD. As an aside, it seems we haven't really had 'that' particular ilk of BD in recent years... You know? where rolls in cold air form the NE ..and the front its self cuts rudely underneath a buoyant light warm air. I mean it's arguable either way... but in most of these lately - to me - seem more like N-door fronts, then a kind of secondary NE 'acceleration' - which may in fact be an amorphous BD genesis after the fact.. But it's a tedious distinction, either way.. Anyway, Caribous Maine at that 3pm hour was gusting on ASOS to 47kts! NE... it was 41 after they had a record high - not sure...want to say 73... The radar had the boundary, too. I guess it doesn't take long to get from KCAR to KBED at 45 kts, huh?

preview of this summer....

although... judging by radar/now at a larger scope..it's pretty shitting from NY south ..

Good call Brian - ... or 3km NAM I guess ? but my interpretation of today was way too pessimistic from a couple night's ago. It looked at the time like murk and pre-warm frontal sludge .. but it's dry as a bone and very high ceilings... Still 61 here ...

yeah ..that's a draw back of that approach using FOUS grids ... not sure why that never has offered that 300 mb milk layer like that. ...sooo many warm days of yore that busted less because of that elevated RH shit. I once saw it 22C at 850 mb, and 88 F at the sfc under a white sky 300 mb ceiling..

24009985220 -3701 191408 55071105 30000742621 -2603 172703 59141308 36000762445 01501 171911 59171310 Most probably don't know wtf these numbers mean... but I love them nonetheless. The NAM model is probably not going to be around forever and with the direction of the tech ambit and so forth... it's trivially a waste of time to learn how to decode FOUS at this point - ha, man... When I was in college back when dinosaurs roamed ... if you were good at doing so and could visualize between neighboring FOUS sites ( ALB/LGA...ETC..) ...you really didn't need any of these graphical cinemas that we use for for entertainment than analytics these days .. Anyway...they are from the 12z NAM's FOUS grid for Logan ... The first bold is 24 hours from 8am just this morning - so 8am Thurs. The next, '09', mean 0.09 QPF... so that implies up to that point in time, light rain. The next is the wind about middle boundary layer, add a 0 by conventional usage yields 140 degrees ( SE/SSE). The next are temperatures are 980, 900 and 800 mb respectively... and still an inversion between the 980 mb and 900 mb ( 11C at 900 mb is pretty toasty for late March!), while it is only +7 below... That is a classic pre-warm frontal environment, 900 at 11 ...the boundary is nearby. Probably CT is already busted into warm sector there. The next row... bold, are the RH at 700 and 500 mb respectively. 50 to 70% is considered "partly cloud" by old school convention... SO, modulate accordingly.. These are showing/suggesting over eastern Mass, the sky is open and clear. That 74 (unbold) is because it is muggy actually.. .and that lower number can either mean low clouds or elevated DP - in this case..it's may be some of both..but I probably leans clear with blue tinted hills in a muggy appeal. The next bold, "27" ... again that is the wind having veered around the west in the middle boundary layer. Where available ... I suspect MOS busts too cool given that look. All that progression above is what it looks like with a strong warm front goes through.

I realize the snark .. but, I still wonder if the April is that bad this year ... I originally surmised a few weeks ago, the plausibility of a La Nina and/or HC in combination, might eventually take over where the AO relaxes... serving up a warmer spring tendency. Unsure if it is for those reasons but regardless, this week is a good head start toward that statistical outcome. We'll see... Also, just looking at the Hemisphere from orbit: there are plenty of identifiable R-wave structures to gage the flow; that means the correlations are alive and well. I heard folks tossing the telecon breakdown out there... you're right in a vacuum but I'm not sure it is applicable to the here and now just yet. I mean yeah, at some point more nebular structures/'noise' will make negative and positive NAOs or PNAs less usefully telling... I don't believe the status of the hemisphere and the modeling out in time really represents we are in that state anytime soon. By the way, ...don't be shocked if the -NAO out there in the EPS and GEFs ... corrects more neutral. I'm only mentioning because of trends since the AO recovery began last month. These extended ranged polarward indexes have been sagging their curves out there, only to lift them up when D10-14 gets nearer in time. Just sayn' The 00z Euro - as we discussed - now more progressive and not as mechanically foreboding with that D6/7 system. It's a predictable correction scheme with that tool. Any modestly +PNAP structure with a S/W up in Manitoba on D9 and look out!

NAM looks mild to warm in the grid on Thursday busting out ... which probably means warm at the surface. And given the synoptics that may actually be the first humid day… Although not unbearably so of course

Jeez the GFS has oscillations 30 to 80 Seems like that’s been happening a lot in recent late winters and springs - bud killer seesawing

Keep in mind ... the water has a z-coordinate in the Lakes vitality. That is mere surface in that link, and has less corrective impact on the former - apples and oranges. The thermalcline of the water is what is alarming, in that the mid strata is staying elevated through winters, which gives the entire body thermal momentum to achieve those types of departures in summers... All of which an ice cover in a smaller mass than is normal, spanning an intraseasonal amount of time unfortunately is within normal small scale variances, that does not offset the implication of the three decades in water data monitoring/science, ongoing and involved at that GLERL division of NOAA; 2013 - 2016 featured winters with anomalous cold downward 'spikes' in along a multidecadal trend that is still unfortunately rising at an alarming rate -

mm... I have my faults as a contributor on this social media-sphere like everyone, ... I'm not sure overloading superlatives is one of them ...

certainly is redic out there today. 70 is my nick high and 68 is my base max ... for a couple of hours while immersed in post equinox sun and very light wind.

For the love of all that's good and decent would you please adopt a tamer set of adjectives ! jesus H. christ - ...you're not being taken seriously friend. Do yourself a favor and try to absorb the constructive purpose of the corrections above. All those crossed out phrase components - get rid of that imaginative stuff and save it for your spin-off series of "Guess what, things tend to wake up at Dawn anyway"

yeah ... I still say there's too much amplitude/ zealous correction applied between the upper MW on D4 ...to what the Euro carries along D5 over the southern Lakes... Which then means it ends up with -3 SD along the S. coast of SNE - Which in itself is not unusual, but having that suspicious relay at mid range west of there .. It is a noted thing the Euro does around that temporal seam - roid rage. Also, the heights over the SE U.S. don't typically register that high when that sort of depth is issued at 40 N ... Red flags... I suggest modulating that toward an NJ model low and narrowing the corridor of impact - if there is any.. It is noted that the GFS just wants that as cold fropa - but..the GFS has an N/Stream speed bias too so ... basically, two forms of error bias vying for believability - lol

CNN takes 'Trumpism' incindiary rhetoric to degrees of immortality that Trump himself would be jealous of... with their headlining tactical fear mongering, and turn of phraseology ... but, this is still alarming without their assisting in one doomscrolling their web source for profit... The GL eco systems is on the verge because of this. There are a lot of aquatic species that need ice in their spawning cycle .. and it is complex. Like Whitefish, need shallows to ice over so their eggs are protected, ..then when the water warms in spring there is a normal algal bloom that the fish feed on... but if the water is outside of a range ( to warm in this case..), the algae doesn't bloom... and that particular chain of dependent biota collapses... This sort of pyramidal relationship is just one in a huge life web of the lakes ecology that is on the verge... Oh, and yeah - it is climate change proven

... mm hm, just say 'anything outdoors' I'd also add, 'biting' to that list - not only does it rhyme ( lol...) there's nothing more soothing when you are already irritated to the brink by 90/75 and it is THEN that the giant f'n horse fly knows to tunnel the back of your neck for oil -

I don't do dews too well ... I like following summer synoptic meteorology ... monitoring heat wave genesis this ... and albeit rarefied, convection that, when set up luck prevails ...etc. I enjoy the heat to a point, if it is dry-ish. I think of 86 with a decent breeze rustling the trees and swaying branches, with a DP of 52 ... utopia. Add DP to that? turns to hell on Earth very fast ... very small wiggle room ... Say 54 ... I think o 56 DP at any temperature above 85 as pushing it - almost no room for margin and it's sack sticker annoying.

Yeah, this was a razor cold layer/decoupling ...based - no doubt - on the lay into the overnight with such low DPs... Because the FOUS grid had T1s at ALB-LGA-BOS all like +5 overnight...so... not sure what MOS actually had, but that +5 is the synoptic low and we obviously went lower than 40 for a low. No real warmth in the guidance overnight until the end of April - Not sure I buy that, even removing the hyperbole. I don't believe that Euro solution will be very successful, given to what it has to work with up there in the flow ... circa D4/5 ... it is clearly taking an "impression" - more so - of a trough mechanics up there, and you can see it flipping D7 onward, it just all the sudden cores out this massive depth from 'not enough' kinematic insert from that D4/5 sourcing. So a little complex ...but in short ( and I know you didn't ask - just in general ...), it is unclear where the Euro get the power to to do that. I suspect it is the Euro's correction scheme at that range - their model does not make the application of the correction application very seamless - tends to 'flash' in... overly conserves what ever it is handling around D5 ..and gives it a mechanical boost. I was clicking through that and thinking, it's going to do it again and yup... historic low from a phantom dent in Alberta - The other aspect which is - I admit - a personal fan favorite is the "MIami Rule" ..there is a 590 dm height ridge spanning the skies of the Gulf to southern GA/Florida and the SW Atlantic Basin, on D4 ...and the Euro digs that out of nowhere trough power, into it... without demoing any shearing from compression and velocity that would certainly have to happen if the heights attempted to lower over top of that heat wall... I think there is going to be a wave there... but.. perhaps a NJ model reduction would be a decent compromise... I don't buy the juggernaut for all those reasons intimated above.

Not very lol but the stagnating the warm front with no apparent fluid viscosity reason to stop it yet still stalling to warm front is annoying anytime of the year ... that is, for those of us who want spring and melting snow Pretty sure we are in the minority on that one Also it really is just Wednesday… That look probably bust Thursday out of pre frontal shits either way

Good point

… On a Southwest flow at all levels too. It’s always been one of my biggest mysteries about New England it just has warm frontal repellent ... It’s just hard to figure out what the resistance is there

It basically takes 30 hours to get a warm front through here

Better enjoy tomorrow… If the Nam’s right