Typhoon Tip

Impressive but ...you know, I know you know this but that's common at elevation. Spring snow wallops the 5000+ out there, then the atmosphere is both thinner and the sun angle higher, and together it's gonzo in mere days or less. I bet that parking area is gone entirely by tomorrow or mid day the next barring any new snow. I suspect something similar though much smaller in total scale happens here Saturday -

I'm tellin' ya man... just a matter of time and we'll get a 70 F legit ambient temperature over a snow pack -

I think I need every bit of that 10" here in Ayer to end the season 'normal' - or within reasonability of that distinction. I'd like that... so that a "normal" winter is officially "not good enough" for those in the area that have turned this pass-time into a life-defining codependency complex lol

mm ...i might pull the trigger on a low confidence Watch and sort of bold/highlight it as likely to go down to Advisory pending more cycles. OH wait heh...is this still 4th period even. Actually don't do anything I guess for now accept model ogle

Why ... it's not a snow pattern ...it's an 'ugly' pattern - as in unilateral ass pounding, all preferences failed. actually hyperbole aside it could be just giga motions in the ensembles. It's just that that seasonal lag thing is real - that part has been taking place where we get these obnoxious asynchronous cold patterns in April and May... I'm sort of getting gun shy and weary that the muzzle's always pointed out our springs because of that seemingly growing dependable oddity

Not really relevant to us I suppose but man ...TX to eastern OK could be raked off the face of the planet by cyclic EF5 swarms in that look on D6 to 7

hmm... didn't realize this was happening but the American telecon layout is looking increasingly shitty as of late. Hadn't been checkin' But, modestly positive PNA by D10 with NAO slipping negative among most members could really turn that pattern ugly at our latitude/ geographic climo after next week's warm up. - may just be the seasonal lag coming back to destroy orchard crops with snow flurries in May again and again as the new paradigm because CC is not happening ... weeeee.

This is why - really - I'm willing to wait on the Euro frankly .. I mean, as a baser deterministic forecasting philosophy - duh - we don't auto 86 any solution... It's a matter of gradation of inclusion to put some weird syllables to it .. Like, .01% ICON ...hahahaha Anyway, that agreement is giving this a kind of 'sneak up and bite' appeal to it..and though what I mentioned off the Euro is factually and empirically correct, it still is not 100% infallible - of course not. Hopefully, we get no agreement at any point leading

well we'll see - If the Euro arrives and there's some EPS movement too - ...watches go up.

That's very baroclinic

I honestly - and I'm not merely saying this because of personal druthers to sans winter at this time of year, either - don't trust anything that particular model does with it's stalking obsessive behavior with the N/stream and bias low heights anywhere on the N side of jet streams. It's coherently biased in that aspect - particularly egregious in spring... That model has done this, as far as I can tell, every spring season since it became 'G' 'F' and 'S' , where by the time it is out to the mid range+ it has slipped the thermal input that the season forces into the initialization and collapses back to January at least excuse imagined.

Yeah...that GFS run is DEFINITELY a heftier signal than an ANA profile... lol.. I don't know, the 00z Euro is inside of 4 days - despite any populous derision of it's skill it is still the best model out there in that range. I'd like to see the 12z because the 00z run was nuisance by comparison to the GFS for frozen. Actually, if it comes in as robust as the GFS ...it would be unusual for it to correct like that as it is ... Let's see what it does -

Lol, ...it's frolicking trollism there a little..sure, but oh my god with this - I mean, as far as wells running dry - uh, no. There are a ton of circumstantially mitigating factors. The geology where the well was dug, and the permeability of rock strata/ .. making accessing of aquifer supplies 'slow rate' or... low rate in general, because the surveyors either screwed up, or warned of a low yield return in that particular region, or both...and the builders went ahead with plans anyway. There's all that, and the amount of rain and whether the USGS D. survey has us in a regional folic color of desicating doom or not ... isn't really automatically meaningful and point to point circumstance. Plus, aquifer water is a longer term strata source ...deep and usually relates to decades, as well as abuses of use, combined. It's complex 'why' well runs dry... We hear of this happening to people even in comparatively wetter antecedent years, anyway. It's really just that - the lust and entertainment cycle of of a doomscrolling for entertainment culture that's come about from having accesses to 'too much information' that is by and large, interestingly ... nosed into by people sitting in the comfortability of their homes with provisions as they need while they warn. You know... kind a like the raging holier-than-thou Environmentalist blogger pounding away on his/her keyboard, impugning everything humanity does and stands for ... utilizing a total media-neurology that is essentially entirely made possible by exploiting the environment in order to bloviate. Heh...I guess in order to reach people we gotta be a hypocrite - I suppose it's a necessary evil in that sense.

Yea no one asked me but, I could not care any less - at a personal level - whether it snows a speck of dandruff at this point. The rain on the other hand? It won't shut up the stein heads that can't find any other doomscrolling to focus on so will blow the drought horn instead... no, but any rain at all helps stuff that much more sock in their pie-holes. At a personal level, I guess knowing with > 50% ... even > 70 ( I'd say ..) confidence that we are going substantively above normal Sunday until further notice ( hopefully until next November 15 in the latter sense), makes tolerating any cold spring regression event between now and then that much easier. But if it rains ...we need it. If snows, that's just Farmer's Gold -

I bet the ICON is too far NW... It's sort of bass-ackward way of looking at it, but it hasn't liked the Sunday balm either ...or the scale and degree of warm up at a continental scope for Sunday through next week all along. I noticed/suspected earlier in the season that it's BL handling on whole was questionable. It seems not do feedbacks .. introducing a host of secondary errors if those d(BLs) are not necessarily created and propagating along. Especially in spring that would be a problem with sun modulation of lower troposphere ... Which that Sunday onward is going to be a lesson in watching the models be like, '...oh, okay ..we have all these new therms to deal with now ...better expand...' ...It's not just MOS that tends to be too cool - synoptic warm ups tend to mature right up until go time from March onward - Anyway, I bet the ICON is not seeing the BL resistance with that high pressing S...

Course, the ICON ...lol, it either has NW bias, or is going to coup this to a warm scenario that ends as fake blue QPF that isn't verifying below 900 mb at all with that look. Actually has PF to Phinn' snowing ... It tries to flash to snow south but that is definitely fake in that set up.. I wonder if that's icing even for SW NH. Mm... haven't been personally impressed with this ICON model though so don't really use it much. Not sure how it does in this sort of look/set up

I just saw the NAM... It's a needle threader incarnate! caution on being optimistic or readily favoring that scenario because the NAM when it comes into the 60 to 84 hour ranges has a tendency to be NW ... owing to a tendency to be slightly too amplified - it's almost like what the global numerical ( Euro/GFS/GGEM) do at D7-10 , where they first scope these system in their distance frames like the moon coming over the eastern horizon - magnified and scary huge... lol. The NAM seems to do something similar then damps a bit coming into 48 < -- so forth. That is a narrow latitude there to begin with, so a 50 mile S correction of axis' and that rt 2 ends up down in CT... etc..

So.. for me, the nice take away on Thursday night into early Friday is the rain. It would be nice to put another 1.25" in the basin tills ... I'm not sure specifically what is offered here.. It may be .7" et... As far as snow...yeeeah. It's in there. I think the flash freeze is the interesting aspect, though.. At least, if we clear Friday afternoon and sun penetrates to Earth ...even if the temp holds around freezing at least the roads won't be too bad. As far as snow itself... that looks to me like an ANA lag back with cold wedging underneath doing the transition for this thing, more so than cyclonic dynamical feedbacks. Those tend to be over modeled. I won't call that a "red flag" but I'd cautionary yellow - I have seen countless cold insert end up with an evaporational slant deformation and steady on rad goes to virga. I think the critical aspect will be how soon does the advection aloft cut off ... the N/stream was hinting at more phasing yesterday, and we saw immediate positive returns in QPF ... but ultimately, the phasing is minimal and I don't personally see how it is going to get to be more, given to the surrounding hemisphere. It seems it may have maxed in guidance when taking that into consideration. The N/stream ultimately partially phases while the rest of the trough mass smears E and pancakes /cuts of the elevate advection and that is racing the wedge drying underneath. That's really taking a needle thread to an excruciatingly discrete level there... It may be a good system for meso modeling ...by virtue of their grid, they may have a better handling on timing the 1300 meter thickness collapse underneath that lag back seeding aloft -

Oh,... Euro has a 300 mb cloud problem - maybe that's part of it...didn't see that level on Monday ... but it's bone dry 500, 700 --> surface on west wind, through +7 c 850s so... if that 300 mb ceiling proves fake ...that 2-meter is going to be warmer than mid 60s throughout the SNE region... I'm not sure what the verification scores are at tedious sigma levels, tho.. Notice also it still frosts Sunday night - ... good mapling -

Actually MEX ... has 55+ at FIT, BED, and ASH on Thursday... Then, we snow Friday morning - classic spring bs... Then it's 74 Monday afternoon... of course. Curious, are the Euro operational 2-meter T products at Pivotal source "raw" machine guidance, or are they sent through a MOS milling before rendered out to those graphics? I'm asking because ... the MEX MOS for this next Mon/Tues are 62 ... which is 14 over climate in a product that is heavier weighted toward climate - specifically the farther out in time. Which means that the signal has to be pretty impressive to warm/pull that guidance that far about 48 or 50. Yet, the Euro numbers are actually slightly cooler, despite having a less contaminated, open heating look in the synoptic layout provided by the operational and the EPS... Seems odd... If these latter are perhaps machine milled by climate normalizing like the MEX, it may explain why they are not 72 in those environments, Mon and Tue afternoons. By then, ..them two days are definitely mixed out and have BL at least to 875 mb if not 850, so the adiabats should be realized and the Euro looks too cool at 67 for HFD Monday, with +8 at 850 and solid W, dry continental flow through a high sun irradiance... man, BDL will be 77 probably...

Sunday certainly looks relatively mild on the operation ( and EPS mean for that matter) Euro cluster... By 00z Monday (8 pm Sun evening..), 850s mb have ballooned the 0 C, N and E of NE. In fact, it looks like the day starts out around -1 of D.E.M. to +2 over NYC...and by that latter hour it is +4 or 5 up there and +6 or +7, NYC... The high pressure (sfc) associated with the modest seasonal ridge ...is actually starting out the day W but slips to a position S of LI by late ... but close enough by that we are separated from the gradient - this limits mixing. So the Euro suggests the 850 mb warms; I'm not sure if the above limits on mixing means the BL will extend to the 850 mb sigma level ( altitude..). It may not matter as much as that would in January... I mean, sometimes the sun being so sloped and weak in the dish pan of the solar nadir ...we warm up at 850 and it's stays chilly at the surface when this sort of DVM/ capping take place. But I'm not certain zippo RH at any standard sigma level ( 300, 500, 700, ...etc), implies pristine swept clean sky .. equinox + 1 sun ... Might be a nerd's paradise to monitor that. Either way, that's high intensity nape... even if it stays less than the 850 mb adiabat, with very light wind and that very warm sun the feel will faux it's way into honorable mention.

I'm sure you've/we've all heard this at one point or the other ...so to the straw man in the room, a changing climate means that kind of 'probability' inference is shakier. The total systemic forces that gave rise to whatever happened 50 years ago ...are not the same now. I think this is effecting everything actually ...from NAO correlating patterns to PNA modes...to longer termed seasonal hemispheres like ENSO ..all of them. 'A,' used to -->X ... Now? A --> (X'*B squared)/ pi lol, just sayn' We can't regress to those numbers if the forcing is changed - that's not very good "environmental math" ...

you actually run in this shit ? - I doff my cap ... I hate it! I hate running in anything less than about 55 ... tho negotiable if sunny a little. 40s or less I'm not fan.

I've seen this before in spring where there is a 'flash' that pans over the hemisphere ... it usually happens from mid March to mid April at some point, and the seasonal torch is relayed. I remember this happened really obviously in 2014, when that bomb missed a big blizzard ... I think that was mid or late March. The cold that had been plaguing the early spring wrapped up with that storm and exited and it was nearing 60 within a week after that 45 days of sub freezing - ...never turned back. The charts at the time had that same abrupt unilaterally abandoning of cold.. For us, it is not necessarily balmy times at all times ahead - so please integrate that into your thoughts as you precede through these next four weeks as a soft troller - LOL... No seriously, we still have private BD hell and cut-off blue surprise risk for while yet. But the flash is like this though? What happens is the cold 'density' just up and disappears and what's left behind is pocketed more trivial cool plumes. This appear to be what the Euro is after ..the key sort of era in the modeling the happens ever year where there's some critical week and the layout just almost abruptly abandons any 'attitude' of cold intent on mid latitudes. I call it the seasonal flash. I also see this in November going the other way ...but it's not as obvious in the autumn.

basically from Sunday on winter's over on this operational Euro run... Does it return for a fluke or even stay in April... maybe, but the super indices don't support that. They really haven't support these last couple arctic cut ins either so.. we'll see. But that circulation overall complexion has a Pac dominated flow going almost zonal along 60 N up in Canada, with everywhere south of there naked to the assault of post Equinox. Further yet the sub -20 C shit is finally retreated(ing) up to the N- slope of Alaska over to the archipelago of N. Canada.