Typhoon Tip

actually... ( to me ) the coarse product at PSU that shows the 500 mb and the sfc evolution looks perfect for snow enthusiasts - a low moves between CC and the BM, with closed heights falling deeper as just on the western arc ...? That's a pummeling for all SNE 10 years ago before access to all this electronic laser show brighter than the thunderstorms they cover became available -. I almost wonder if some horse-blinders may be a good thing - perhaps a microchip installed in the heads of the standardized engagement level users. In nano-time, this device pings back and forth to critical fiber node of the web upon mouse clicks, IDs the user, then ... instead of loading a nuance idiosyncratic image that launches a thousand ships, "We're sorry, you have been designated suitable for prevention of knee-jerk reactionary bias. Please, this is for your own protection. Error code: XCD000001"

So... do we have time to couch a complete unilateral model whiff and thread abandonment prior to another Boxing day hypocrisy rebirth of interest between now and next Monday night - that's the question... Actually, in all seriousness ( except when I'm not - ), I don't think this thing can 'wiggle' farther east than it has, wihout the hemisphere at large changing floor plans. If the latter does... meh, we don't have control over that. This isn't the same thing as a needle thread scenario. It is a broad tropospheric supporting parental structure and just like liberals...they give their kids lots of room to play. So the runs are having fun in the bounce house.

Yeah...it's pretty clearly owing to the total E repositioning over prior runs that may have intruded modest WAA .... I didn't look very close at it honestly, but when Will said 'East' and hour ago the first thing that popped to mind - for some reason - was that the it was too mild to begin with in previous and now corrects colder/more BL resistance, but it appears to be more just the E adjusting. We're backing the CCB head more there ( ...oh god I'm getting hit for that statement now ... ) but it's pulling more NNE critical wind direction compared to the ENE wind from before in the surface to 1300 m. I think when we get a couple more days in the books and start with details...this is the kind of aspect that will spark spirited CF tedium enough to inspire Rainman to put down the Telephone book -

Wait ... i thought we already explained the CD .... Is this for a different conversation ? now I'm confused...

man ..at a glance I thought your handle there said 'Nazi' ... double-take, whaaa Looks like slow movement on the radar type of overtake to me. I could see it walled off and S in NYC up to Danbury CT 12z Monday morning... while Kevin watches virga undulations and a radar saying he's under the N edge.. And as you loop it ...it's inching NE such that 6 hours later, the same has then aligned between Rt 2 and the Pike ... then S NH by nightfall. Within the shield the echoes pretty solid in that initial burst... might even be hints where small embedded pixel clusters at slightly higher level rad beginning move more NW... Good mood abounds while - hopefully - James is raining ...

Heh .. I know what you mean, but it did 'go east' ...at least some. In principle the assertion was met this time. That said, I've seen the UKM and Euro part company enough anyway to know that's rube-cackle among the mid-evil courtyard rumor mill anyway, just sayn'

mm yeeeah, ...luck with one helluva twist of hidden irony that hides the unfairness of the thing - but yeah.. ha, I dunno - it's a joke

It's interesting .. but this system is straddling the verification timing - the models tend to 'get better' beginning around D4.5, but this is just setting up .. where those crucial times are in the grayer area later Tuesday - longer duration ftl I suppose. But the Euro now has had distracting continuity of this nature across three consecutive runs so... looks like model 'giga' motions to me.

probably should use the expression sparingly? just a hunch... lol - It's basically like, take two people: both are born with the exact same IQ ... exact same good looks .... exact same wherewithal in terms of family legacy/securities ... with no guiding genetically differing markers to suggest substantially different health, mentally or physically... one ends up a CEO the other in prison Guess who was the proud recipient of the CD ? It's just when fractals ...chaos... the unforeseeable forces just contributed, badly. ...Usually, insidiously too ...like one does not know it ... and then of course the world "gets to" blame the person for all their mistakes too - and since there's no way to advocate for the thusly persecuted, their iniquity is forever unsung, and the CD has its orgasm. Sometimes ... you can do no wrong, and just lose. Everything that exist in nature has a degree of unpredictability to it's outcome: both positive ... and negative ( relative to perspective ). Yet another example to elucidate the CD-effect: ... do you know what the word synergy means? The word synergistic follows ..and refers to when an interaction of elements produces an effect that is greater than the effect that would have resulted from simply adding up the effects of each individual element. So, that does not guarantee that 10 input goodies ends up making something super great... It just means greater than the sum of the contributing parts. The CD is when those elements all seemingy good ... butt-f* the hell out out of the well-intended - get it... That concludes this vastly inappropriate sermon for this particular thread's intents and purposes... And is also not to be taken seriously... haha

sumpin like that Although I don't know about the power-tooling - that's between you and her. I'm just saying, this total set up could produce more than the models have shown.

I take great risk in advancing the following ... understood, but the beauty of the superior ... hemispherically supportive region for storm genesis model, is that any discrete models that are lacking in the full realization of what that constructive interference can mean ... run risk of busting weak - That's something this 'over-achieving' bastion of mal-contents would never admit to hahahhahaha, the possibility that there is a correction vector in place that points to conceivably more. Seriously though, this is probably a good opportunity to point out that the truth of cats and dogs in that rising PNA/+PNAP western ridge bloom ...whilst -NAO decays a ridge through the Maritimes, is that we could be bitten by "under" production in the models in a rarity, and that it took just a tiny permutation of less being a dick by one of these guidance' ( in this case ... the GGEM and V16) to go ahead show that you get a bigger return from the favorability overall... if that makes any sense ?

LOL ... funny you just said it that way - close to what I just internally mused: Between the GGEM's mid level appeal and this Pivotal -supplied V16 .. a lot of folks are going to go a considerable distance in correcting both perceived seasonal snowfall deficits ... eh hm

kidding there ... but the sfc charts over at TT is where I've been getting them - didn't load apparently. I don't frankly have enough faith in the GGEM beyond 4 days to find a different source so shoot me. But I can imagine the surface has a near bombogen deepening rate between 126 and 138 hours with that evolution.

120 thru 138 hour GGEM's 500 mb evolution was impressive - ...seein' as we're in load the needle over individual model parametrics mode .... let the eyes roll back in the head.

I've been down this Q/A road with this forum's contributors a few times over the years ...and never really got a satisfying/convincing explanation that didn't sound like a well formulated, thus difficult to dispute opinion ...Which is great! - if one's seeking artfully forumulaic grammar and rhetoric - But, are those errors globally integrated ...or, ( sum [ quadrature mean average ] ) / N-quadratures... how etc... ?? Because it matters of course... If the UKMET is amazing in the Universe except on planet New England, it doesn't do us much good knowing that it scores among the other legendary oracles, does it. I mean, models probably do have error prone regions. ( I know you know all this...) I mean I think the Euro has a demon monkey on its back within the region between 110 W and 90 W over N/A mid latitudes, in the D4.5- 8 range specifically, that it may not have over France where it's always dead nuts accurate - I dunno.. But, it is consummately having to removes some 20% of it's curved appeal from the charts when passing that time range inside ( or < ) 5 days... It's frustrating - really... particularly when one attempts to use that observation and their own experience with it, and some other poster swoops in to remind them 'H5 RMS error H5 RMS error' ... ugh. It seems to me the UKMET is horrible, f'ing period man - but in its defense, I haven't taken it seriously since 1994 LOL yet...there it is H5 error proves its so awesome, all over again -

Yeah agreed with others ... the pattern subtending this affair isn't really as cut -dry cutter/ EC southerly transport as it looked - ...trends decay that. But there's reasons to bring it back. The expected arrival of -EPO can at times exert the down stream pattern unfavorably for winter enthusiasts - to put it nicely - at first, getting colder preceding storminess later on. Gosh forbid anyone should have to wait, huh - I see a bit of a wild-card in play ...however, where the hemisphere is speeding up again. The flow out there in that extended GFS/GEFs, ...while not necessarily true for individual features, the flow is hugely fast again - ... That speed tends to physically stress the shortened wave-length assumption...which might impede the typical/idealized -EPO model of first dropping a height nadir west, and triggering a buckle/bubble-up over the SE that precedes a cutter - this latter aspect may be pancaked and in fact these operational trends appear to be doing so anyway ...

It occurs to me looking over this 12z ICON ...which I'll use to demo a discussion point(s) because I'm detecting it also among all the other guidance, frankly. It has to do with the handling of the mid .. U/A closing features wrt to the surface reflection ... The 12z Tuesday position of all illustrates a deep layer quasi closing 500 mb center that is well west of an broadly opened pressure basin ... That open space appears to have several meso-beta-scaled lows whirling around inside an open region. That is not a captured low ... That schism is typical of a systemic detachment. It could be convective over selling... But, a stronger, deeper closing 500 mb ( deeper than struggling beneath 540 dm), would do wonders to focus. Frankly, this system still looks like it has from the get go to me - a protracted moderate winter storm, and I do think it snows more than rains west of the immediate climo coastal zones... Obviously across the life-cycle, pulse or two of isolated heavy cannot be ruled out..but the by-and-large distinction is not a major player. It is, however, possible to approach major impact by virtue of duration culminating - that's the storm zealot/enthusiasts best pathway to salvation the way this stands now. What needs to improve to bring irresponsible lust for destruction and dystopia over the top ( lol ): This also still is a whopper hemispherically supportive scaffolding, in the sense that the +PNAP ( and by the way ... the PNA looks now more properly involved, and that makes this whole ordeal more H.A. in nature ..) is blossoming western heights, while a vestigial/collapsing -NAO westerly limb blocking node is pivoting SE through the lower Maritime region. That is pinning a neggie node near us... What is somewhat lacking in all this, is that in situ S/W mechanical feed-in isn't ( thus far in guidance ..) nearly as equally impressive.

Right - well ...sure, that may be . The point nested in the previous: there are a variety of reasons for those distracting holes, and v-notches...and weird nadirs. And, sometimes the models will get it wrong and they won't happen, too. But one is wise to take them seriously when they show up as that lesson has been repeatedly bludgeoned over heads lol

Mm... I remember very specifically adsressing the depictions of QPF 'shadowing' that were persistently on the guidance leading that event, Dec 17, across the pantheon of leading tech frankly. Not that anyone refutes - just sayn'. There was zero ambiguity... It was absolutely clear that for a few of us, we were taking it seriously and were leery of that feature and design in those QPF spreads, based upon experience, and we even discussed, profoundly, plausible causalities for that phenomenon in other systems in history. Ideas such secondary ingesting very dry 'tuck' jet air hygroscopically eating at the fall column, to UVM repositioning mechanics ( Brian's assertion above ..) ...were all viable culprit candidates... all of which are valid reasons for why the models do sometimes paint those systems wth "V" notching QPF 'predesignated' sore-butt zones. Ha As it were, .. yup - don't argue with the notch! It verified. We here, in that area, verified the doubts to 11.5" totals. I just don't bitch and complain about totals nearing a foot -heh. 15+ was more common surrounding N. Worc/ N. Mid and adjacent S-SE NH... While at it ... I studied that event as it was unfolding... the reason for the notch that time, from what I surmised, was a split in the tropospheric vertical column of the storm. The mid and U/A, post split, drifted through central NE partying on in those shenanigans. Whilst the 700 mb drifted along LI, festering a bit of secondary that enhanced snow S of here ..but not nearly as prolific as the mid level magic going on N. May also have been some llv CF helping down there, too. This all in totality "spared" a band from N of Springfield ( or so ) Ma Nashua NH from the same output.

I am wondering how these plots are assessed really ... I could see that being two distinct nodal lows at that hourly interval- it's just that of those members ...they happen to have developed enough of the 2nd to close that circulation and ping the plot. In practical terms, said 2nd circulation might look like a kink or bend in the cold front that is subtended S beneath the 'main' vortex ... Something like this, We have to consider that this is ...well, as of yesterday and priors ... a very broad trough in terms of areal expanse ... it's huge! Or 'yuge' depending on one's vernacular in the region ... So much so that it could very well gestate an entirely new ..albeit weaker, cyclonic life-cycle down further along the seaward escaping baroclinic axis. It's not uncommon with large eddy mechanics to see the cold frontal kink, and a new low develops between Florida and Bermuda... You know... when I was 11 years old and flunking math miserably ... what I was doing instead of paying attention, ...notes, deciphering ..heh, was literally and figuratively for that matter, drawing weather maps. Yup - that's what I did. Teacher even said once in an admonishing parent-teacher-why-is-my-kid-a-consummate-dinktard conference, " I don't understand, he's a great student - I always see him furiously taking notes when I turn around to face the class..." 'Cept, those weren't math notes. First, I would free-hand the U.S., and I was pretty fantastic ...right down to the Pu. Sound to the Baja of Cal... to the Miss. Delta... Delmarva, GLs...Finger Lakes and Cape Ann... I didn't bother with the geodesic state lines...I kept to physical geography and left the tarnishing conceit of humanity from the purity of my designs ... ( I was a fledgling cynic too - ). Take the average dorky nerd of cinema and literature trope, call that person's life a black hole of despair: I was the super massive black hole version of that ... Anyway, I used to draw movies of frontal sequences ...in between spit-soaked paper wad plunks to the side of the head and the occasional special ridicule the same cinema and literature ...never quite seems to get right. Here's the interesting aspect ... I learned a lot about the "Norwegian Cyclone" model thus by reasoning through the artistic nature of that focus. I remember as I contoured each frame ( and I even instinctively did 6 am and noon and 6pm and midnight in-order, only to find later in life...that's the way the Met world does it too... ) having aspects and answers to lingering questions come to me. 'Oh, that's got to be why -', secret learning through the an internal Socratic method ... See, it's why I am a huge advocate for giving kids play time. Kids not allowed to use imagination - interesting subsequent adulthoods... But so much conceptual stuff I gleaned out of these right hemispheric storm tapestry sessions ... I was completely nuts! *BUT*, by the time I got to college and those first couple of years of synoptic, I A'ed everything! Funny the stuff you think about when your dad tells you his brother died - maybe just the spectrum of one's own experiences and how they got there becomes paramount. Anyway, ...and I've often wondered if a big meaty beefy bitch trough with several spokes timed 2 clicks apart could spin up "kink" lows that peel back NW and ensemble line punch a region repeatingly - LOL... No accounting for the imagination of a small boy ... Come time and life and experiences and Christine's later, I learned how that's essentially how all this works anyway. It's called S/W embedded in L/W ...embedded in resident R-waves .. it's just happening at broader and longer time scales.

I had posted this in the wrong thread: V16 looks like it is engineering a way to not do anything - grudgingly .. it's admitting to that ? ... interesting.. I suppose it's possible that a this signal could remain less than fully realized. Thank goodness this is the new version set to come on line in a week. Sometimes I cannot help but suspect everything with GFS DNA seems to try and avoid baroclinic exchange of any mass fields... allowing them to slide past one another never really tapping into the potential dynamics that exist in their absolute differentials - very interesting... But I really believe that if the progressive bias corrects, that exchange and deepening feed-back emerges. Whatever it is in the physics...these GFS' I see this all the time with this guidance, going back many versions for that matter. It figuratively if not literally ...goes out of its way to jam nails and staples into the crank case of baroclinic trough evolutions... and you end up with busted raviolis - I have a question...does the GFS run a QPF dry bias ?? just curious - In any case. This too me, ..at this range and owing to leading indicators, appears to be the best fit for now - not anything the GFS is selling...or it's V16 either...

It's like ...this is the antithesis of the snow retention year - watch ... we'll end up with 80 to 100 inches and no one will be able to honestly report a pack on the ground more than 10 % of the time

heh...and it helps if said 'hot chick' wasn't the prison yard princess in a blonde wig to begin with -

Know how we know it'll rival history ? because 3 days later it's 62 F with howling southerly gales -

Pretty good NCEP summarization ...echoing the sensible voice(s) found in here - Regarding the system tracking eastward from the Plains and then redeveloping near the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast, probabilistic winter weather guidance shows the best potential for meaningful snow extending from the Midwest through parts of the Ohio Valley and then from the interior Mid-Atlantic/central Appalachians and across New England. There is still some uncertainty regarding the rain/snow transition zone. Meanwhile the potential complexity of the evolution aloft over the East Coast further tempers confidence in specifics, especially given how sensitive precipitation location/type/intensity will be to important details that will likely take into the short range time frame to resolve. There may be a small margin for error between a significant snowfall and a modest one. Farther south expect the highest rainfall totals to extend from near the east-central Plains/Mid-Mississippi Valley into North Carolina or vicinity. Some of this activity may be moderate to heavy but its relatively swift motion should keep rainfall totals from becoming too extreme