Typhoon Tip

In the meantime that is a lot of compressed waves struggling to hold onto identity but may still have enough to swath occasional synoptic moderate wintry bursts. 2 day periodicity

Yeah that’s the 11-15th event .. its been wobbling spatial-temporally back to the 12th and 13th ... this version is more 14, but the entire period is in teleconnector convergence with dropping NAO ( impetus being not already dropped ), tandem +1 PNA arrival. Cold load is completed and in place while gradient aspect associated (flow compression ) relaxes; meanwhile said tele field disparate sourcing transmits and results super-synoptic/synergistically promoted deeper negative geopotential anomaly ... again ( and it’s early ) another 90W-60W by 35N-50N inside of a month ... both -NAO over the western limb of the domain I believe is useful/referable. It’ll come and go ...but suspect this has another hemispheric footing in that period of time

It's time sensitive a bit ...but these graphics indicate an interesting phenomenon - TD designation over land, and a long duration survived track .... over land tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=austwest&sname=18S&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0 This thing is tiny, too... We've seen anvil explosions in April 'Plains thunderstorm outbreaks dwarf that little guy. If someone were sitting out in their lawn chair, ... 70 or so miles away, it's not likely this thing would even fill the horizon. It's things like this that challenges the definitions we put on atmospheric events that tuck them neatly into categorized phenomenon. It's like a lamphoon - =maybe. Thing is, I've seen that around the NW coastal region of Australia before ... there are over land Invests and TDs.. Something about that region's climo -

Lol, but we've been doing that all morning and mid day... pages of it -

I do now fo' sho' ... I lost a lot of weight. I'm a fairly tall guy at 6'2" ...so toting around 230 physique before, it wasn't like I had some unsightly front-butt or anything. Taller people spread it around yuck .. Anyway, now I weigh like 180 -or as of last check. Maybe 185 mid winter lbs. By choice ... lifestyle adaptions. And I don't really eat much sugary shit like ever.. Not shy about vegetables and Nature's natural candies ...like melon, berries and mango fruit. It's amazing, that kind of sugar makes you lose weight - fascinating. Once you get used to eating that, it can almost be too much. Telling you ..industrialization of foods has seriously f-ed the human palate into a captive provisional psychology. I work out every day ... except about once per two weeks on average. Oh, I'll get invited to some distancing- protocols violation .. Or, finally it just catches up and I need the rest..I did that two days ago. I notice it's time when I feel like I'm breaking speed records on the stationary bike, ...come to find I'm five minutes slower - D'oh. I can do this because I sequence between Elliptical, Peloton, and 10 K runs ... start over rince repeat...Such that there's 4 days between the next time I do them - Those are different muscles I guess... it works for me. Anyway, where I'm going is that I get cold ? ...I do... I have to have my house at 72 now or my hands get cold. I have noticed since losing weight that a situation like that is more and more so a welcoming sensation. If it were like 48 F late March day and I wanna run to the store, my car is so cozy. Lol

It's interesting to me that we ( at least I ... ) have not seen a cross-polar Siberian express -type conveyor orient its self through this PV weakening saga this mid winter. It's been like that above.. the flow sort of migrant around lily-pad blocks and ridge bombs - ...sort of ending up with weird hemisphere that's difficult to really ascertain the R-wave counts...but there are those nodal cold wells in the rampart around like we see above. It's not a 'kidney bean' look where you have a nice arced NE Pac hemispheric footed ridge that -EPO pulses and the flow transports. Meh...there's enough cold and that's a stormy look. Just an odd observation

Mmm ... I don't ever 'worry' about the sun angle - I've seen blowing snow cob-web off of flat roof eaves on April 10th at 1pm in the afternoon. Sun angle at our latitude may be over-assessed as a limitation. It's influence on modulating the environment is obvious; foliage triggering, and when the atmosphere supports a warm afternoon, it will supply the energy to get there. The hemisphere warms that way .. and thus, supplies of cold become ever premium. But, a cold, fresh supply of polar air under the density of a crying CCB head, wins as late as that time of year. Shoot, just last year we witnessed virga exploded CU with snow flurries surviving the fall to the ground, while May sun was undercutting the falling shafts ... The solar stuff I've brought up in the past, that's in deference to the nadir ending and is another discussion aspect altogether. It's just like everything; folks want to have nice neat tidy boundaries that categorize aspects of nature into obeying groups of behavior but ... the lines are blurred. All it means is that it gets harder and harder to snow as the spring ages away from winter... and then in July you get 10 days when it's like 99.999999% chance of not happening ... at which point the percentages start dropping ... until January, when there is a 99.999999% chance of bi-polar flights of euphoria followed by neurotic inconsolability

Still suggest the 11th - 15th is the next bigger ticket item... If the 8th comes back against the odds of that synoptic evolution ... so be it. But there is another converged teleconnector era ... PNA rises positive during a polar index relaxation leading to the Ides

I think of February as the first creak in the door as the ghost of seasonal change. Meanwhile, protracted talcum powder bombs may be choking civility LOL but it's still out there. The solar turns around and like I said, we're just talking a creaking here - don't get one's panties in a bunch. August is the antithesis ... if you take all August ( February's ) in history, and compared them to the rest of those years ... the ballast will demonstrate that the corner actually turns in those months, probably well prior to anyone taking sensible notice. Anyway, not sure what the EPS is doing ( maybe Will's weeklies would be interesting but my snark impression is those are pretty N/S -like beyond D. . maybe 11 or so... ). The GEFs show lingering neggie AO though. IF IF IF this -AO is driven along by the SSW stuff ... that can plague springs with unusable -NAO pulsing. Spring BDs cold mist seem to occur at least excuse. However, this SSW --> -AO occurred earlier than spring killers of past though. When that happens in mid or late February, the ensuing spring doesn't exist... You get that gamma-winter that flips to a heat wave in the first 10 days of June; after which a cooler, dryer than normal summer with a whopper anomaly in boredom characterizes the west of the way. But in early Jan like this one... it may gestate over-with and render the spring back to a La Nina controls. Which is ...what? I "think" it's mild/warm in the OV/MA? HC is always there, too. La Nina is would tend to constructively interfere with that ... unclear what that emergence would entail but it doesn't sound on the surface like we're heading for a wintry March. Maybe this should be entry post for "2021 Spring and seasonal change monitoring"

I think Will might have mentioned this but the 9th swish through by the GGEM ... That's a carbon copy of the 8th - the model's just swapping out wave emphasis. The 9th's is about as close to an identical production as a fluid medium can create .... To me that overall in principle means either ( but not both ) are equally as likely to occur, as not at all - What a fuggin' exact metaphor for a crap's shoot that handling is from Sun - mid next week! ugh

Now's about when the Euro comes roaring back - haha

I just commented on that ... agreed. It seems this ICON fosters these robuster solutions whenever it opens up even a little in the timing of the Pac S/W ( 72 hours for example )

The ICON slowing that 72 hour position down by 300 or 400 km in the longitudinal axis out there careening down the Front Range region of the west, might be a good thing for winter storm enthusiasts ... I mean, there's a direct homage to the aforementioned sensitivity issue in this guidance - these ever so presumptively innocuous variances, run to run, are making for the difference between 12" thunder storm snows like the 18z run yesterday ...versus a gentle light to moderate Currier&Ives CCB 06z over night... Now, we have just slight timing difference allowing that intermediate stream wave in the MV to remain more cohesive and boom, back to a robuster short duration major impactor - Certainly is an exciting 12z solution ...and I have been watching the ICON's systemic handling this winter ( once and for all ..) to give it a chance ( so to speak ) and have noted that among some other frustrations ... it tends to too much warmth in the boundary layer - sample size is short ...so bear with that... The antecedent air mass benefits from a fast flow in that the cold reload post Friday's system prooobably does not have time to modify substantively and any 8th ICONic fantasy ...however borne of truth shall it become... would need to be a colder solution modulation ( most likely ) anywhere NW of the low track. I have seen the ICON look consistent and blow it passing the baton through the temporal seam of the mid range into nearer terms in this trial so... Please, just bring back the Euro solutions yesterday, that were mid way between the unlikely history bombs, and the 00z GFS zealous cremation shit ... and then we'll have the seeds of consensus ...

As Walt and others have pointed out ...this is a highly sensitive to small perturbations in streams causing forecaster/determinism headaches - so out of the gates this needs to be built into people's awareness: we enter a lower confidence modeling period in general, spanning the 4th through the lead up to whatever happens nearing the Ides of the month. There is also a tandem emergence of a robust -NAO (western limb variety ) ballooning near the D. Straight and this is adding a tricky wild card. Fwiw and having said that, I am relatively more impressed with the 11-15th time frame, actually, than either Friday's ... or the 8th. By Friday, the whole of the continent and in fact the quatra hemispheric scope has/is entered(ng) into an N/ stream dominant circulation type. Because of the nature of what that entails.. then considering existential model usage and familiarization with their biases therein: -- the GFS probably runs away with suppression/shearing tendencies and will thus have difficulty even seeing narrow "needle thread" events. This will at times be so extreme that even desperately flat waves, all but entirely damped out and holding onto mere threads of identity get taxed yet further by that model's Marxist physics ( lol ). -- the Euro -ilk will ( excuse the anthropomorphism ...) "attempt" too hard to compensate N/ stream related longitudinal stressing - some of which is of course going to be real. It perhaps 'corrects' for it when the anomaly gets excessive - just a hunch - and I think 120 kts canvased circulation eddy wind is getting there. It's like it creates a window via correction processes, then capitalizes it's own creation using the extraordinary baroclinic gradient that the fast flow inherently caps shut ... Whatever it is doing or however it gets there... it is probably owing to engineering that historic 960 mb circular arctic sander bomb low it attempt to grind Worcester off the face of the Earth just a couple a 12z's ago. Friday .. is the leading edge of a -EPO or quasi(pulsed) -EPO surge of cold loading ... resulting from constructive interference with ridging between the arctic and polar streams ...however briefly, over the NE Pacific. The affects downstream from those changes are heralded along by that Friday torpedo in the westerlies. The entire geopotential medium is the process of becoming gradient saturated, and together with the impulse's own 140 kt jet max, rockets in the change. It is an interesting circumstance that emerges out of that quickening flow. Its drilling the baroclinic nexus so fast, it is outpacing the advection terms ( WAA ), and that forces the triple point to zip shut down the cold frontal length as the cold front bulldozes under the warm sector faster than that lead air mass mix out... That will also mean less time or success for warm intrusion N of ~ mid Jersey/NYC ... I've seen that type of frontal tapestry in fast flow regime-like circumstances, ...many times, and this appears existentially textbook. So what that means, is probably not a huge warm up before the R-wave rollout re-introduces the -EPO loading cold to the 40th parallel across the continent... But it could also introduce a 'smells like rain' period of wet aggregates prior to cold sweep clearing the coast ... which set stage for next Monday? The 8th latter event suffers the same speed headaches. There is enough presentation as others have noted, across the bevy of less dependable guidance types ... but also hinted in the EPS and GEFs ... These open progressive waves can bomb ... they have to be precisely how the 18/00z ICONic solutions carried it - pristine handling... Okay... It's too early to thread that that, unfortunately .. the only way to scaffold confidence and compensate for the exceptional difficulty of high sensitive, fast perturbation prone hemispheres, is with the nuts and bolts and girders of ensemble/ and better consensus from operational members. Right now it is too difficult - for me anyway .. - to homogenize an appeal. Looks like buckshot model gunning The one after that ...I am really more interested. That compression period is waning at that time, and as is typical post-ward ( in guidance here too), there is a window where the SPV elongates - creating a western limb that bides time. This is when/where the -NAO mentioned above may play a more important/transitive role in the Lakes, OV/MA/NE regions. It will be setting, by-and-by, with the SPV vestige sandwiched erstwhile inbetween the waning fast intermediate Pacific jet ... weakening yet still careening strongly through the middle latitudes of the CONUS underneath. That's a powder keg for subsume phasing mechanics. What we need to really cash in and drive a super synoptic scaled feed-back scenario, is really just a well times Pac S/W to squirt through the MV... It 'dents' the heights along its translation, and that is like taking the stopper out of a drain... The exertion of the NAO black exerts S, which exerts the SPV fragment S, and then phase is on, provided the flow isn't too crazy fast - which... because it is waning, the latter is satisfied. Bingo bombo - I don't know in this case. But, there are hints in the operational models - but even those that do, shirk that hemispheric potential ( imho - ) ...for all this. It may just need time to cook in the guidance/ensemble means, but ..should something of a larger/ mechanical elephant materialize in time, not a surprise for me. Time will tell... The GGEM 240 and the V16 (as supplied at PIVOTAL) elucidate this hint.. But, I see the general large scale framework of potential in everything really ... still quite obscure and not dependable.

GFS ‘ native bias issue with N/stream exuberance and overly deep integrate heights on the polar ward side of the polar jet ... causing velocity surplus is subtle but real, all of which makes it more uniquely qualified to fu up that needle thread scenario. I feel more confident in the GFS crushing the field oppressively and erroneously shear stressing it to negligible than I would describing ‘what’ transpires; but I do feel there’s something there. it’s an N/stream dominant circulation type through the period in question ... and you give the GFS of all models that inch it will gladly take a mile’s worth

Yup ...that ICON solution is exactly what I was discussing earlier - how fortuitous that solution would materialize just when, wow. Open but powerful progressive wave, NJ model low... One probably in throws of bombogenecide of SNE at 120 hours but .. .not much skill and I have bothered to monitor this model's handling of major events this season and I'm frankly unimpressed - That said, it's a wonderful example - That solution probably passes beneath 980 mb within two clicks of that 120 hour 987 S of LI ... maybe 978 mb isollobaric power cutter for the Cape and James' posting ability .. which, you know .. But, you know... that's probably about 9 hour run with S/S+ and with exceptional 300 mb divergence mechanics offering black-hole's suction difluence over the N arc of that lower developing CCB wind, thunder storms are more likely in that scenario than the one last night. so, lots there to discuss when it's close enough to be worth discussing - lol.. Does anyone want me to start a thread? I will - I think it's a low probability at this point, but it's the only probability - I believe until sometime between the 11 and 15th.

thanks ...but, uh - poetry isn't really my bag? I've tried the readp-in/coffee house frustrated, early adulthood angst scene in my earlier life, but found them to be too loaded with "deep" posers - Not me - I'm an on-the-sleeve blunt prose sort of gent. Though have been told my turns do at times represent that form - it's an accident. So, I'm sure your turns and stanzas there are charming - and perhaps layered in meaning... but other than the imagery, what that is escapes me.

Sort of what it was doing on that run yesterday ... But I looked at the upper air at the time, and it was all slip stream driven by 500 mb...It had like almost no divergence above that level - tossed the notion when I saw that.. Now in this run, it has some 300 mb classical entrance mechanics.. I think an NJ model low has a reasonable shot - by that I mean for D5 - at taking place. Open wave rapid mover that develops earnestly as it squirts underneath us like cheap porn -

It might be worth it to start a thread for this ... I mentioned last night being willing too - but ...heh... Unlike this gig last night, this one on the 8th is less inspiring of confidence to put it nicely. Said thread should have increased font size, bold, and italic slants with an underscore, that reads something like, highly sensitive and only threaded out because it's the only other thing beyond Friday's triple point fropa to really be specific about Do we think the we can handle it lol

This is what I was looking for, yesterday ...wrt to those bigger bomb/unlikely hallucination runs ... They were lacking that upper air divergence mechanics ... That there is an intense mid-stream relay to eventual a right entrance accelerating wind field ... above the 500 mb forcing/UVM. But this is also the sort of detail that really doesn't get confident in guidance until that 4 day window... Need maybe Thursday, and/or better ensemble support - some cross guidance nods would be nice too...

March 1956 snowed north of 80% of that year's annum climo in the upper M/A and I believe that involved NE too - It is April that is the cruelest month ... I mean, if one's personal druthers meant more than a turd's worth of any consideration ... I start waning on winter enthusiasm really fast toward the end of February's myself. By then, two weeks have gone by after the end date of the perennial solar nadir - that being Feb 10 at our latitude. You can feel the sun's winning on the face and forearms, or how Kevin so oft waxes poetry about those warming sensations that kiss his napes... Heh, the futility of holding onto winter in those days is like when you're watching an awesome movie ignoring taking a piss - only gets worse and worse.. Finally, you have to go do it - in this case..admit it. For some, it takes until June 1 but - It is the fact that out of nowhere it's 6:07 pm and there still some daylight left .... and the next week we bump clocks... We are falling uphill out of winter, and it's sad coming in here and reading through eye-rolling denial - lol... Yeah, I guess some years we hit a pine bow on the way up and breaks our "fall" into depression, if for an instant of hesitation around some late anomalies - or, we outright hit a trampoline like in '56. But most years ... it tends to be over - I just love summer, and heat tracking patterns .. and crispy TCUs ... My nostalgia is just as strong for summer fair - and I enjoy long days, smells of lilacs, fresh cut lawns.. Perfume from some milf in line next to me at an ice cream shop. I miss the aroma of barbecues, or that pungent sweetness of a distant thunderstorm's body odor. I don't really experience the NEGATIVE variant of the S.A.D. condition, that mirror form; and it's recognize by the ... you know, national psycho-babble institute of brain-boxes ... It's rarer though, but real, and afflicts ~15% of the population in the same was normal S.A.D. does ( which I think the crucible of time has distilled the user ship of this social media ) ... Where the 'darkness' and cold temperatures grade on people's joy and functional circuitry in 'normal' S.A.D., these opposing ilk get that in summer. The thought of summer actually causes these individuals anguish if not pain. Interesting... but, anyway, don't discount March -

Posters doing a fine job capturing the essence of the end week and early next week pattern predicament - FAST! Not much to add there... There is a presentation in the GEFs ...and clearly the EPS too, albeit weak .. for Feb 8 - something is there. But I would pass on the oper. Euro hyper bombs ideas.. In fact, the 00z notion of weak to middling low bombing on exit and being a much bigger ordeal more so up in the NS/lowr Maritime of Canada isn't a bad fit. But like I've said in the past - these models don't arrive to 'physically impossible' solutions.. either. Those previous Euro runs were happening mid way through a compression flow - so there is going to be inherent sensitivity/model error there. Fact of the matter is...yeah, you can get a fast moving bomb out of an open wave. Friday in the foreground here is not a 'real' concern - it never was in my mind. It's a leading baroclinic entry into a new pattern and cutter phenomenon - typically associated to a newly arriving -EPO/quasi -EPO cold loading event. Yeah, sometimes if luck prevails ...we'll get a 3000 km occluded boundary to a triple point near the NY Bite ...and squeeze a fast moving forgettable snow-ice-cool rain before the modified arctic air mass floods in behind recements.. It's been that way in all models and ensembles and is climatologically sound, too - so there's not really much room there ... I am something just shy of intrigued by the Feb 11-15 period of time however. That one - should the 8th fast mover sort of thing fail - might be the next period of time for something of interest.

Phew ... good night's sleep last did little to elixir 'event fatigue' - ... ... don't know about y'all but I'm ready to sign off on this and let it etch it's legacy upon tomb stone of weather history. 14" is a slight positive bust, but interestingly ... now-cast efforts lent to an "intra -storm now-cast negative bust" When I tuned off for the night ... we were ahead of schedule on accumulation rates, and the appeal out of doors was striking - really. I had objectively observable blizzard conditions raging at my location, with only soupcon of weakening tendency in the overall radar coverage at the time .. ~ 11:30 pm... At that time, I had just topped a foot of accumulation. While there may be some argument over model interpretation this and that, from x or a source...about an additional .5 or even .7" liq equiv from 1am to 7am was expected.. So totals in the range of 16-20" seemed increasingly likely by a combination of now-cast and recent updater model types...etc..etc.. Wrong ... C/o NCAR's radar history ...it appears to have just blanked off almost abruptly after that faithful hour last night ... I doubt very many saw that specificity taking place ...Or perhaps they'll claim they did - but that's them venting by impugning others ( another fun petty emotion-fueled head-bag that goes on in here when a taint of bitterness gets into the final tea taste of some event being vested in...) Excluding that form of persecution, this thing literally just evaporated on radar within about 2 hours of crashing last night, and when that happens - in my experience - the snow rates actually dwindle prior to the radar completely drying out, too... I am willing to bet this was down to S- with blowing S ... save for isolated/SE where some CF enhancing (I'm guessing ...) fuzzed the rad for some fake stuff... pretty ubiquitously going by that radar animation of the overnight. Synoptically, this thing's light switched just up and turned off on us rather abruptly. Nevertheless, I haven't actually formally gone out and begun to exhume myself from the 4' berm the plow operators attempted to inter us with overnight - at which point I'll make it official ... So, I guess my town must have a new guy on the job. Mother f'er! Every resident on my street lives on the same side.. In the 10 years I have lived here, we have cycled through this dog-and-pony show three separate times. It should be obvious ... it should. Look, no one wants that/those type of town gigs... so, the ones that end up there ( sorry liberals .. stereotypes are only wrong because they are true, and you just hate facing the truth - that's code for F U! ) prove time and time again to lack circumspect based up situational awareness based upon what IS F'ING OBVIOUS! Now, someone's going to have to wade through and flag the guy, cup of coffee in hand, ...and kiss his ass. With strategic, appreciative platitudes the exchange hopefully gets to the goal of ... 'Oh, yeah ...sure,' Next storm, the berm is on the opposite side of the street. DUH

12” S/ blowing S. 1/4 mi vis 29/29