Typhoon Tip

No one's asking me ... But I'm still okay with front snow spits going over to ZR/PL/R mix in the interior, with snow mainly southern VT/NH ...maybe down to Rt 2 along N Mass interior. I don't think the front IB is that huge though, because this thing is mechanically not huge. But ...sometimes things can maximize too ... There's that, plus ... that local climate group tendency in the verified numbers to result above guidance - ..so Anyway, I'm calling that a relative win; probably already is, considering 3 days ago ...not many were taking this seriously, either for entertainment or impact aside. My thing then was that it should be considered, and..it would like be colder - I still feel that way just based a-prior experience. It's after Dec 15 ... with a new polar boundary S of us. I realize GW is going to eventually f-us good and proper right out of winter, but it is too early to start assuming those kind of fronts end up back N of our latitude in flat screamin' flows +PP over BTV.

I think this should be monitored on the 22nd and 23rd for that thing to make a re-appearance, old school style, in guidance... We can see below, close! That N-stream is just not quite digging enough, but ...notice that time stamp there says 174 hours... And given the speed of the overall system translations in the flow, the total N-stream aspect of this is probably somewhere NW of the Aleutian archipelago ... and with the flow during this run-up era buckling toward more N-S constructs over the Alaskan sector... it's not a far-gone conclusion as to whether that'll start digging more in future run cycles. ya know ... we typically lose, or lose significance, systems in the ext...it'd seem almost fitting if one 'emerges' instead. Although ...the 22n/23rd was in there 3 or 4 days ago, just sayn'

I've actually noticed the middling wave interations/stream timings have been more off, and that phasing is rarer, EXCEPT for big events, which those have a slightly greater frequency - and why we've been seeing things like yesterday, and that NS/NF cat 3 -scaled blizzard... historic in scale. We've been breaking records, case anyone hasn't noticed, as like a "weather culture" at this point. Folks are expecting it - digress. It's like lowering the numbers of mid-grade phases, and increasing by a little, at the big kahoona end. I betcha.... I'd be willing to hunch that the energy budget of the atmosphere is balanced that way... 2 mids = 1 big in a sloppy sense? So we reduce the mids by a couple ... but get 87 kts out in Goodland Kansa in clear air in dust. ha

I tossed you 'like' on this because yar ... I've been rather truculent about these observation ... over and over again, for years - specifically the bold abv. But it's all good - I've noticed with the general public, mantras seemingly have to be repeated 100 times to move the needle of awareness 1% - occupational hazard 'falling on deaf ears' The phenomenon that I have been trying to bring to the attention to the dopamine drip D9 bomb zombies ... ( relax I'm kidding!) is that these damn things keep getting corrected less, as they move from that range to D6 ... D4 ... sometimes not existing at all by the time they are D2 or...some paltry version of the original vision. I've metaphorically referred to this as the moon rising over the horizon phenomenon, where it looks ginormous at first, but then shrinks as it rises... Anyway, I suspect the velocity, specifically as it is physically related to the gradient saturation and is handled by the models, is the problem there. In basic wave mechanics - to wit ... all of the atmosphere is a stage for basic wave mechanics merely operating at a giant scale, with various influences of constructive or destructive interfering inputs, but the waves are guided, in principle, by the same. I realize I've likely lost most in this haha ... but for shits and giggles, it looks like this Anyway... it seems for some reason the models "lower" the value of V in that squared term ...out in time, where they are then having to run to run correct the toward higher. Supposition as to a cause, though. You can set this up algebraically, and solve for V's affect on these terms at all scales, out in time, and if the models are slowing things down erroneously, that is going to screw up the X and Y dimensions of the wave space, and intuitively, it does lend to seeing why these events get diminished - change V on the next run, effects these partials. It could be that the models try to relax the gradient, --> less velocity, and then as the the runs go by... add more gradient, adds more V ..blows up the original vision.

That looping stall/hesitation has been progged that way for about 10 days to 2 weeks actually - in other words, all along. I'm not sure I agree with those tweet authors, that it is effecting shit frankly. That loop was there before Rai was itching it's daddy's pants. It's really more remarkable that circus act appears actually destined to occur, proving ...holy shit, the models are capable of verifying discrete permutation like that. That said, the fact that "Rai" 's "recurve forecast" is delayed until the China Sea longitude ...strikes me as not coincidentally linked to the notion that Phase 7-2 (or the left side of the RMM) are in "destructive" interference with the La Nina footprint of the N. hemisphere - this latter aspect, according to CPC's weekly PDF publications disseminated weekly. In fact, as of the 13th just recently here, "...This MJO event is likely to destructively interfere with La Niña, and there remains uncertainty as to whether the MJO will maintain an organized structure as it moves near the Date Line, as evidenced by large ensemble spread in the RMM forecasts..." Those that want to use the MJO to modulate the hemisphere ( for better or worse and one's leveraging, notwithstanding LOL ), they really should absorb what that means. It means, the MJO could be entirely meaningless. That said, it also may be open to interpretation - as CPC said above... 'unclear,' which doesn't mean no influence. It means the wave integrity is in question - I gather that the 'other side' of that loop some of this may get more clear, but that is a guess. If the hemisphere was in constructive interference, Rai probably comes/pulled out earlier along present track trajectory, and then it's influx of latent heat into the westerlies would go on to help matters. But here's the thing... the EPS and GEFs mean ( as is no novel observation at this point ! ) are heavily agreed upon a significant NE Pacific blocking episode....One so massive, in fact, that the end of their runs...they terminate out to entropy while still some vestiges of that, echoing like a haunt. What is interesting there is ... that is not very La Nina either. It's as though we have two interim -time scaled teleconnectors, the MJO and the AB Phase of the N. Pacific, in an epic battle against the La Nina... Not sure if RNA/-PNA is really that connected to the La Nina, but either way...the whole f'n planet is in destructive interference with all these narrative understandings in conflict.

It's not impossible that the 22nd ( altho, perhaps adjusted to more like 22.5 or 23rd) could come back, too -

Still waiting on the seemingly dependable 20 to 30% reduction in overall system integrity that the models typically start correcting at this range. So far so good … but I wouldn’t put it passed this doing that going forward. Heh

I guess Dryslot already did. But maybe you could petition to get ‘SWFE’ removed from the title ?

‘Cept, … I wouldn’t consider a flat wave going underneath us with typical frontogen and backing elevated flow signatures/ low securely going south as a SWFE. But that’s just trying to apply some consistency to the usage of the term. I mean it’s happening along a narrow corridor admittedly but it’s still not a primary shooting up at Saint Lawrence and a huge isentropic wall that ends as a weak meso low scooting seaward. This is a frontal wave /New Jersey model hybrid… but weak in the latter sense.

There’s gotta be some sort of a cold reenforcing boundary around hr 60 (NAM) per the FOUS because the thermal profile rather abruptly goes white below 800mb as the wind switches NNE (Logan)

May as well just have one big super thread … call it, ‘2021-2022 minutia and personal bullshit occasionally interrupted by model imaging psychosis ‘

I wonder if that was a tropospheric fold out there

I wonder if they trop folded

Looking at some of the particular details in the PP/mass field behavior... It wouldn't shock me if this thing were to labor toward mixing, then a "tuck" jet swooshes SW and formulates a more proper rain/snow line that bows into RI

Fwiw - I don't see any difference wrt to the GEFs that offer much distraction. Both EPS/GEFs means even quasi manifest a polar cut flow ...centered ~ D10 . As is typically the case ... by 300 hours the mean starts to look increasingly annular around the hemisphere, bleeding out the nodes toward entropy ..etc. But, there are still vestiges of the D10 echoing through the disarray of those vast extended frames... so.. short version? cross guidance support about as far as can be seen in the future... That looks like an emerging threat for an arctic outbreak like old school - that's the scaffolding anyway..

Personally ... I side with the Euro for a few reasons, both meteorological and operational/experience included... That said, I'd call some ZR/PL down to the Pike or even NW CT as a relative win, because as I went on with it earlier...the Euro most likely has a better handle on the DP layout post the shallow boundary, and it's synoptic PP being subtle but crucially greater than the GFS north, is more likely real at this range and adds to that... Operationally, we are < than 96 hours and I don't believe the GFS scores typically better than the Euro in this range. but there are other nuanced reasons with the tooling, too

Back on pg 91 a wrote this massive… … And basically it seems like nothings changed. The models are still trying to sort out which system …no clue which or what is going to be dominant or significant enough, through that period of time roughly the 18th through the end of the month – which they get a pass because we’re still talking about extended leads. Just sayn.

I can’t believe those people are so willing to go across that bridge

oh Forgot to circle back ..I realized that but ended up pulled off to actually working ..heh

tries to sustain 12 hrs of bona fide blizzard headline ...

wow, the 12z GGEM took that 00z run and made it even more dramatic looking ... Somewhere, there is a man putting down 100,000$ on NYJ to win the Superbowl

I know what this is... The GFS still possess an ever so much but crucial inaccuracy in handling the BL thermodynamics of saturation - a product heredity that kicked in a handful of "upgrades" ago... I suspect that is why it is not seeing/assessing the BL resistance of interior SNE/SE NY and the eastern Capital District of NYS as having upper 20s DP in near or at saturation, and instead, drills the temp/dp combo to something like 40/35 while the light to moderate ordeal plays out through the weekend. I would not trust the GFS in this situation. Both it, and the Euro never move the antecedent front back N into CT-RI, and once that sets up ... and assuming the Euro handles the BL more precisely...sorry - The GGEM ...not sure how to account for that - it could be arriving at it's layouts through different means/local biases ( or not..) but, it does, just cursory, looks like it doesn't lay out as much antecedent +PP into central/NNE... prior to arrival, so it whether or not it is handling the BL resistance or not, it never has a chance to test that because it's about 4 ... 6 mb lower in ambient PP compared to Euro. That's where I am leaning as of this hour - less weight on the GFS's hydgroscopic thermodynamics, in lieu of more accuracy handling that in the Euro ...and possible BL resistance feedbacks. Should the Euro arrive with less lead +PP, then I lean away.. That would be situation where the earlier runs of the GFS were right for the wrong reasons though -

There's some false infamy thrown at it, lately, too. When a model is always superior, separated from the pact and peerless, a bad performance or two creates this disproportionate gravitas, and just like in human parlance ..it is unjust - because people were pining all along in a coveted head-space, to see the celebrating taken down. Haha. we do this in our culture with people, to... The more a famous and popular and good-looking the transcendence's intangible mystique is, watch out should that individual f'up and be human even once. Discarded ... usually, they're dropped, fading to irrelevancy; but then some may resurface a decade later with new understated draw and gain popularity back slow cooked. Anyway, the Euro's been shakier that last 18 or so months... given - but shakier is still better than all other guidance by empirical measure. I was just mentioning yesterday, that model bested the GFS ghost nor'easter it kept selling ... run after ran after run, earlier in the month. There were threads started for what ultimately worthwhiled to dim sun cirrus, because the striking consistency of the GFS grew too difficult to ignore ... if perhaps resist. The Euro might have had it once or twice at D9..but it dropped it really pretty early, stayed the course, and silently won that debacle by a pretty bad looking pantsing - That, and... D5's - boy have expectations changed over the years, huh? I mean, I remember back in 1992 ...97 like it was yesterday, and nothing had any rights on that day anyway. funny -

Conflicting schools on the Saturday thing ... Firstly, glad to see folks coming around to giving it attention - mentioned this yesterday... that had an icy look, albeit below mid impact, for the interior, with similar snow implications to S VT/NH... and here we are with the models converging on the climate/experience, therefrom. That said, you know ...advisory? But there is interesting aspect below: Deterministic philosophy on a meaningless event, by Jack Handy lol: The conflicts are less whether there will be a flat wave rolling thru. I think even the confidence of it forced S and staying < ALB-BOS latitude, is also > 50%. The conflicts are this business about over-assessment of mechanical power by the models in the mid/ext ranges, vs. systems seem to over perform QPF relative to modeling after the fact. Those two are offsets... It's like the system verifies weaker, but then drops 30" of snow from a (sarcastic) cumulus cloud As to the former, the models are consummately having to shed a goodly amount of there prior systemic 'might,' as the forecast interval in question comes inside of 120 hours. Here we are on the cusp at ...108 or so. I'd like to see this be consistent particularly at hour 72, or I don't put Scott's snark re shred fest more inside the realm of possible results. I don't know what causes the constant inflating of features out there in time, but it is a fairly consistently observable model error/biasing for me. My suspicious is that the flow is having to be sped up, and that stretches things and starts attenuating fields...etc... complex. I don't know... that said, I've also seen flat waves just over-perform because one or two synoptic/mechanical aspects are on roids. That one or two parametrics overwhelm a total system profile that looks less than pedestrian at first glance... Kind of Lance Bozartian and the "Lil' critters that bite" ...

First thing I've seen in 18 hours ... greets me with perfection. At least the day started the day off right! This is the Dec 21 00z GGEM solution... for 180 hours, as I am sure by now this is passe' with this particular crew of carpet surfers haha. But, I did notice the page count upped a bit over night - hmm... intriguing. That's a 20" er with winds going bonkers on exit type of NJ Model bomb you read about in fiction ... only an ode to dreams.