Typhoon Tip

I was thinking that needs to happen it appears the NAM is front soaked with that isentropic snow wall it’s carrying on with but its gobbling up dynamics and escaping seaward with it in its total handling ... leaving less available for Q-V forcing cyclogen blah blah

The 00z GEF -based teleconnector coverage still looks rather warm in the AO and distant PNA ... So, the EPS signaling that ( assuming as we close out the month ..) not surprising. They could be rushing things though.. I'm also wondering if the PNA sagging out there may be accompanied by an EPO block...

It does everything in it's power to miss the isentropic snow/ .. front end ... then, is too late on the coastal... un real it's obvious NAM peregrinations but .. there a waning of the front side... and the 2nd aspect is weaker on this run - lenses off -

Ha... yeah ... but truth be told - everything plays its part. La Nina is not good in February anyway - lest we've forgotten that little kernel of fly shit whirling in the punch bowl. Then, the over-arching sense of planetary dooming HC crap which is noted/ .. empirically observed/science, also doesn't like winter - pretty much at any time regardless. Putting those on top of one another? It's really, ...really basic arithmetic. At least some form or another of quasi synergistic ( constructive ) relationship could and probably is emerging out of the co-mingling of their junk. You know I've mentioned it lately .... I think of this year as sandwiched between the mega -AO winter, vs those two assholes f*ing up the party ...

LOL ... not to be too aggressive as a Debbie Downer but, heh... between his "...Big members," and your "Yup" ... how/what exactly defines big using this product abv?? I see ~ 18 members left of the 1008 mb closed pressure contour, and the deepest is a 1000 - Ah hell I guess. Thing is, this dips through the Arklotex ...which means it's scooping Gulf pee into the airmass that might get lifted over nascent polar air. This went from an isentropic lift scenario, to a Miller B yesterday... to now...some kind of a paltry Miller A/ANA hybrid in the operation Euro, but through all those it's had that pwat available to those solutions. You know ... 1978 a 1001 mb low passed SE of RI on the 22nd of Jan or whenever that was, and dumped 19" of snow a Logan...I guess under the right circumstances and me not being in a bad mood ...things can find a way of working out using piece of shitness mechanics. lol

Yeah I dunno - hard to deny ( for me ) the modeling performance trend this cold season. Not sure why but there is a coherent tendency to dampen impulse kinematics when relaying those deeper mid range features into the skies over eastern N/A's mid latitudes. This Euro run is poking that inflamed nerve with that solution; it's been trending SE for 3-cycles then this. we'll see-

Everybody has their own lens I suppose... Mine sees this Euro run as decaying the whole previous notion into positively tilted shit smear at 500mb... - maybe "muted" is more like it. Because it's running up against the H f'um C compression ... or La Nina... or both ( probably, both). Its like it only manages to dent the surface of a still point water at the instant the flat skipping rock bounces off ... next stop, Svargard If this ends up an ANA piece of shit that transitions to a weak cyclogen for NS... it is what it is. You know I took a gamble starting this thread, because there's really not a lot of tele support - it's a between/ .. maintenance system.. ( or, one that is between correction events) and those are always over amped this year for some reason... This one is showing that now, right there, in that run - ... I wonder if the Euro can be wrong enough inside of 4 days this way - .... ah yeah. Truth be told, I was a little bit worried last night when the 00z runs looked so nice across the board - we're not that lucky It's not like this thing is arriving up in between stable larger synoptic features that are dependably orienting where this thing's destiny should be... So, that much correction that fast, had me spooked .. meh, didn't mention it. whatever - we'll see what happens. 23rd may not happen either - it's the same shit as this one. There are no leading large scale indicators suggesting it is really needed in the restorative, mass-field sense ... and so, I'm not taking another wack over the head with this again - that one is going to be damped just like the others... how much so is the question. I gotta say ... starting to sense a bit of personal seasonal fatigue kicking in.

This storm has an upside potential ... not presently really seen in QPF distribution... As is, there's a narrow band between the 500 mb and the 300 mb jet fields that is trying to open up from NW VA to western MA ... 12z Friday. It's possible that gap widens a bit between those features - though probably not hugely so... Anyway, that band could nest a pretty strong CSI type band ...because the 500mb, 120 kt jet max is displaced E of the 300 mb ... which is cruising along at close to 200kt! There's likely to be a slot of enhanced lift along that region ... mid level fun and games.

This an learning op in why a fast flow is too much of a good thing sometimes. If it gets fast enough it'd dismantle all cyclogen kinematics down to an ANA thing...

Yup...I feel pretty confidence myself this ( 22.5th to 25th ) interval will be the next thread designation after the 18th/19th one... I did mention it briefly near the start of that one, but didn't want to bog it down. It's been popping up more so than not among the various GEF members for the past week - fwiw. Also, it fits the established local pattern's periodicity also fwiw - It's not a really teleconnector signaled/ .. correction event, however... So, I would caution that it might suffer more the fairly persistent modeling tendency to see the size of the moon coming over their distant vision as a ginormous impacting doom storm ...only to have it rise higher into clarity as smaller version - ... ah, the models have had to deamplify/ tone-down some, just about everything in that time range when it comes less than D5 .. 4.. etc. If it had more of the corrective appeal, it might have a different physical presence in the general circulation and that's a different result... But here's the thing that also could offset that - so it's not an automatic assumption, either. I am noticing that there is a tendency - albeit a bit deceptively hidden - for the heights to try and bulge either up the Rockies, or in from the NE Pac...take a pick at model and what variant. If that proves real... than suddenly, there's your corrective kick in and the thing gets more amplitude/ synergy off the L/W trickery and that would tend to offset the model correction need - So... enjoy your migraine

Mm.. this event I think has potential to modulate in the models more so than the usual amount for monitoring/ .. deterministic efforts at less than D4 I'm noticing that there is a 'staggered' relaying of jet mechanics ... a whopping large amount too, that is ripping over southern California ... while the L/W axis is amplifying toward west TX over the next 48 or so hours. That lagged feed can morph things in short lead ...seemingly out of nowhere. If a Pacific wave is alone out there...I think the assimilation may perform with higher proficiency for limiting 'missing' crucial momentum aspects... I'm not sure that is the case when you got caboosed "punch" jet that is/a some 3000 km long tube of wind at 125 kts driving into the backside from off the Pacific grid. At 300 mb in the oper. GFS it's 150! I am wondering how the assimilation tech handles that kind of integral feed - The NAM does not have as much of this latter arriving mechanics ...but given to the flat trajectory - overall - coming off the Pacific and tracing that wind tunnel back in the runs, its still not even in the NAM grid ... I'm sure it's getting relayed into the NAM's grid by something ... I wouldn't trust the NAM ( heh, goes without saying)

Yeah I've been operating under that same assumption with this ICON thing for awhile now

Whomever mentioned the 'two pulsed' idea, that is correct. The thread opener ... I mentioned that the models et al were flaming a lead acceleration of the mid level wind field along the W - NW arc of the vestigial SE/West Atl ridging... What is fascinating about that is that among the various guidance, it's not really associated with a S/W approach / exit jet mechanics nosing in.. It's actually L/W compression of the heights that is triggering that acceleration... One that is also prevalent in these recent NAM guidance; but as that acceleration first encounters the nascent polar-arctic air mass about to be put into place from the interior MA up through New England regions, the NAM is then producing a pretty potent isentropicl lifting band betrayed by that navy blue with nested magenta pixels in there.... That wanes off as that accelerating jet field pass by - lull ensues. Then...the NAM uses the immediately heeled trough to then generate a paltry coastal ...but perhaps enough in the latter mechanics to still swath a moderate snow/CCB genesis as noted... Is all that right? Not sure... The numerical/ Globals appear to make distinctions between those two 'events' more seamless ...like the 00z GFS ...which ended up with a 24 hour event, managing somehow to pull that off in what quite possibly could be the fastest possible flow there can be on the planet - man that's getting lucky ...

If that happens there’s a band doing 2/3”/hr easily

May be too amped but the GFS is mid lvl magical juggernaut ... but the QPF is substantial in long trajectory format anyway and looks like 8-12” most areas save for the s coast without meso / way early to get into that. that 500 mb vector containing that huge pulsed wind max riding over that cold would likely jam inflow jets straight into a very steep elevated frontal slope. I bet GFS 850-700 mb frontigen has a bright band

Slipped back to 26.5 here in Ayer rad looks like the whole bag is trying to miss NW at this point. Wow its like it’s not enough the models did bad its trying to find ways to make them badder lol

Lol - you took my flip vision and doubled it down I dunno ‘bout blizzards to bliss in a week ... but I’d say if March ins like a lion ... and flipped mid month that’s pretty damn abrupt

Is this an 18z distinction for the next 2 week? I just have this weird vision that we get slammed by Gatling gun PAC waves for 17 days then it goes summer in mid March in a grand flip. Like the seasonal change back in 2010 in April - it was like 48 with low DP pellets next day 65 next day upper 80s

Yeah I’m not really sold on the idea we get out of this month without several concerns ... maybe into the first week of March. also - op runs are fighting ensemble means. Wondering what the PNA and AO look like over at the EPS

How long does one believe winter will last on Feb 15 ? Yeah, winter is "almost over" - deal with it... That said, it's compounded by the complete break down of the erstwhile -AO, toward the positive mode, while the PNA is collapsing negative. These operational runs do little to offset the veracious and rational acceptance of those weightier signals/indices ... Additionally, no one said this was right away either... This was slated for March. It was March possibly flipping the script to an above normal/ spring-like month. It's not like people are trying sell a dog shit taco to Julia Child in this..

This thing has much more powerful mid level mechanics involved than tomorrow's thing .. .yet, the surface evolution is paltry relative to that - interesting..

what does that mean ?

I know ... It's annoying... I put in bold not to do that - please... what happens - I don't know if it's not really reading, or just disrespect - not sure...But, I guess you get what you get with a free-for-all and the general public lol

I just I dunno ...I guess it's too much to ask of this concentration of internet folk to not be human when it comes to being recently mislead by model "lies" re- the present system, to then come in here and be sloped objective ? ...prooobably not happening. ha

How in the hell does that logically follow ? ... You're previous observations do not appear to connote that -