Typhoon Tip

That's what the ex-CDC chief espoused to the entire world on 60 -minutes, three months ago I think it was - it's just funny that the actual ex Director of the Centers for Disease Control already floated that hypothesis, and it's like nope... " what does the manager of McDonalds know about ensemble line hamburger cooking anyway" ; then three months later it's 'new' as a notion LOL ... that guy just get the Meg treatment. Not that anyone asked, but he is not the first source I've read or heard from, how "NOVEL" viruses don't get it right like this one did - not at first. When first introduced to a new species genome, it take many failed iterations ..usually, expressed as partial infection rates, often below notice because they are assumed part of the footprint biota shenanigans ... But, time bomb clock is ticking and then it mutates and 'gets it right.' This is just known in the basics of viral pathogenicity - folks can research this shit with double dose of adderall and pack of cigarette's worth of tedium, but Pandemics in a genomic group take time - the Spanish Flu may have had an ancestral root in circulation prior to WWI's unique capacity to concentrate the mutated agency into the virulent form it took ... probably in the trenches etc..etc... COVID-19 did not trial-and-error. Considering the sequence permutation spectrum of DNA ...the odds of that happening are basically 1::google Hmm... that's the primary vehicle in suspicion of engineering. But here's the thing... it [probably] was not done for malfeasance or conspiratorially ...or some Jame's Bondian type super cadre of villainy of trope dystopian novel dreams.... It was done by a mistake. Purely an accident ...and that region of the world [putting matters delicately...] has a tendency to be ah ... less than forthcoming about the facts of dogs and cats. What people don't maybe know - not sure ... - is that the U.S. culture/ambit of advancing molecular biology does the same shit that these foreign scientists [probably ] did. To save time, gene engineers goosed the infectious aspect of the virus to accelerate research process - competition breeds necessity... both internally and internationally. It's probably even part of their internal defense initiatives to cover bio-warfare pathogenics. The Coronavirus is in fact in the same family of as the Rhino virus - ...yeah...the 'common cold.' It's like two sequences of variance can separate a harmless head bug into pulmonary edema - some of these are almost indistinguishable yet incur much different injuries to target. and on and so on.. but, it almost suspends disbelief if someone wanted to connect the dots that way, that it makes sense they were tinkering with a bug that's already robust in any human population, the common f'n head cold... So, they engineered it to be uniquely situated ( chemically ...) to infect human cells, some variant of with some sequence tinkered with ... and then some 66 hour per week, red-eyed inhumane work-abuse-environment lab tech ( like the Chernobyl sequence of events that let to that thing in the former Soviet Union ... - oh, there'll be a movie about this some day too - ) forgot to wash his/her proverbial hands one day, and the rest is history... The only difference is, for whatever specific mistake it was, it likely got out of the Wuhan lab where said research was taking place.

Fyi, you know ... you can get a healthier hotdog option now and they are fantastic with all the taste-bud savory goodness as the tumorigenic, Industrial Food's Complex version of them from mid last Century, too. I get 'em all the time. Of course...you have to enter a "Whole Paycheck" to get them...but, they are even 'Uncured'. The sodium isn't even huge, either - they are like a 'healthy' choice that takes a D-/F+ staple almost to even B- when balancing (nutritional value + not causing scrotal nodules)/2 ... In fact, I can eat as many as three of them with an organic bun option ( also for just 20$ a package at the same "Capital Darwinian" purveyance ) ...and wake up the next morning; never having (yet) suffered the morning with that burr-behind-the-left-eyeball headache that you risk getting from nitrate monosodiumglutemated triglyceride dynamite stick f'ing a bleach bun like it's circa 1978, when that real meal looks like it ain't gon' happen and fair-ground vendor's steam cart is the only option- mm-good.

Here' what I predict with an air of confidence above the typical joke of D6's ... Next Wednesday evening ... after a two meso nested quasi broken line of severe thunderstorms validate a watch box that late afternoon and evening, west to east across the area.... the southern aspect of the convective sequencing doesn't propagate much farther south than N CT/RI ... Then ...as the evening progresses, the first shower in a series of what will ultimately become a strobe lightning flooders will train/back build along that line ... all night long, until the front finally catches up and then it ends around 2 or 3 am... 1.75 month's worth of rain along that axis... Targeting package defined as Teconic - Tolland - NW Hills of R.I. .. where ... the U.S. D-M has no choice but to remove any mention of drought, cancel -culturing 'stein' from any vernacular ... until some time the following spring. I just can't wait -

I also think we are in a -PNA driven warm pattern .. The overall surprising decent agreement between the operational Euro/ GGEM and their respective Ens means wrt to the general circulation of the hemisphere, matches the GEFs telecon layout laughably better than their own flagship operational version, the GFS - which cannot be used at this time. The GFS is as usual ..not usable in warm seasons - ..I've writing why/how over and over again... I gotta say, in never hearing these reasons ever echoed or so much as whispered in other conversation circles ... I wonder if is not taken seriously or ignored...? Do what y'all gotta do - I'll just leave it good luck basing anyone's expectations on that thing's ludicrously obvious problems. Anyway, this is a -PNA/hemisphere. The idea of modest warm height anomalies lingering post frontal swipes ...along the southern OV latitudes and below that is coherent in these non-American versions; they are also a much better fit for EPS/GEPs/GEFs ( yes the GEFs can have some reliance that the GFS seldom does) Pac - North American mass fields. It looks to me like a borderline hot weekend ends mid day Sunday or perhaps that evening/night... I don't think Monday is held to only 67 F at Lowell Mass under solar max era sun, no wind and zip CAA, under 850 mb adiabats lingering to +6 C ... so 74 there and it may be late in the day? Not totally sold... I think of Monday as a nice experiment on the 925 mb 12z sounding goes Ibex against that celestial radiation emitter in the sky lol A warm front cruises through in flat ridge trajectory with zero inhibition WAA Monday night ..and I bet Tuesday 86/65 ... maybe 90/67 Wednesday ...and as I mentioned yesterday and still looks the same, ...that has a bit of thunderstorm look to it with that next S/W

On the fence with that ... Both the operational Euro and GGEM depict a very interesting sort of anomalous pattern of behavior with that 'big bubble no trouble' polar high pressure that depresses the boundary S by 12z Monday. Both show the high pressure as dispersing and even splitting it's mass by 18z ... leaving residual mass NW NE and S .... Then, oddly ..regathering sort of en masse SE of Cape Cod between 21z and 00z late Monday afternoon into evening. I think that behavior is the diurnal heat modulation of the atmosphere overcoming the high pressure cell ... Heat and buoyancy forcing chops it up. That high pressure is also in the process of having it's governing mechanical support rapidly abandon it over the course of the day. There is no CAA ...only sun ( Zool!) The flip-side of all that conceptually is that those physical modulations don't happen without a temperature response in the interior... Those 925 mb temps/adiabats 'll get obliterated by sun by 11 am, and with no supportive CAA at all at this time of year not sure how the boundary layer is dictated by that level-metric. That's an easy call for me - Anyway, that saga offers 'late high' scenario for the eastern zones, because after the wind dropping to almost nill mid day with instead hours of unadulterated 73.5 deg angular insolation submerging the land mass in irradiance ...the pressure pattern evolution suggest a west wind takes over during that 4-7 pm period...and that busted air then moves east.. NWS is not parsing apart the nuggets of these behaviors nearly as detailed as I am ...

Just my cynical hot take ... but, the price bounce across the board of all these 'society scaffolding' commodities is ad nauseam predictable and frankly ... reflects a species that not only deserves a Pandemic ...they could use a Carrington Event + a Super Volcano concurrent in the same week of the same calendar year.

If there is a heaven ...and I make it in ... my version of it watches as CNN's dissolution sends a diaspora of ethically challenged cockroaches fleeing for the hills being chased by a karma cloud of misfortunes, both physical and mental/spiritual ... so incomprehensible torturous that god him/her self just chalks off as the one anomaly that cannot be constrained -

Well then how do we account for MCS? They like to travel along the TE gradient around the northeast arcs of hot domes such that the region will be situating long that axes - that’s what I was going for originally. The thing is with the west wind 0-5km we actually are in positive sheer. The other thing is that climatology and heat domes breaking down ...they don’t typically end in a big thunderstorm whacks like that ; it seems like they would, but they they usually just sort of dwindle ..you get three days of dry days and then some front later on which isn’t happening anyway because next week the heat rolls back in I think it’s also possible that that whole Northwest flow regime is over model ends up being less

are there wild fires up in N quebec again... f this looks like smoke to me -

Actually ... in my non-Wizonian defense ... I did say it was predicated on that present look, as it were ... actually panning out. Of course, the 12z Euro doesn't look so good for that. I fact, it looks like a the 'real' heat isn't even with this ridge...it's next Tuesday to the end of this run ...

who cares what I think but when the DP's low, I stop counting after 83 or 84 ... until maybe 94 - that's entry into hot domain. Anything in between there may as well just be one temperature, 89 For every say 2 deg of DP added beyond 52, that 94 gets less by one degree. ... such that 84 is hot with a 72 DP ...something like that. Weird 30 variable equation for apparent temperature - just go 2 over 1 LOL 84 here via several home stations within a couple clicks, tied into Wunder's network

Hmm... guess I should read more of this two pages of thread ... but, just having caught this sentiment ( bold abv) Keep in mind, in raging climate change ... that throws a monkey wrench into any presumptive analysis, that which infers based upon any history *before* the accelerating of the climate began. I think since 2000 ... it's really hard to get a bead on what is 'normal' in that regard. All over the place... It's a topic utterly rife with argumentatives based upon an an ambrosia of non-reconcilable interpretations - just seems to me that climate change should connote inference change. Having said that ... logical or not, I have lol. I mean, the 1980s ...I guess that qualifies as seldom, as the return took 35 years. But it doesn't supersede the point, really. I remember the 1980s pretty vividly back in dem ole WC days... It was a way different reason for DJF dearth winters.

It's hard to want to fit in and be socially functional in any society that's got such an entitled soul that it's developed a stingy germ phobia, a cootie culture that goes "ew" at the mere thought of actually being a part of a biological foment known as Earth ... like a 17 year old princess complex - I wish these masking people that quietly covet hope that they are the new mandatory order of the future also just as quietly get diagnosed with stage three reproductive organ cancer -

This BD is forcing very little appreciable cooling impact ..that's for sure. I mean Bedford MA is 79 F and they are only 10 clicks inland ... Logan is managing to flirt with 70 on a 15 mph E wind in mid May - that's a bit odd actually.. Meanwhile, we're 80 to 83 up and down Rt 2 west of I495 this hour ... Sensibly it is hotter than yesterday despite being located behind this analyzed front https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif Reason? no wind ... I mean the sun is like straight up and down ... almost 72 angle or whatever it's like burning the top of your head just stepping out there. Still dry air though. Noticing the ridge trying to rollback in next week, though more longitudinal ... Looks like the layout of a Lakes to New England drechio/MCS ... There's a 570 dm thickness plume ( unlike this dry air ridge this go) skirting along within that ridge bulge, and it gets to about Watertown - Brian - PWM or so ... and some EML looks like it may have gotten peeled away from the SW in that... Anyway, we may go from mid 80s to low 70s, to mid 80s/72 DP, Saturday thru Wed next week, and with a polar jet just next door over the St L Seaway... could be a legit severe risk in that Tue-Thur time frame. Of course ...all that's predicated on the assumption that these current looks hold. A couple .. few cycles from now, the ridge may become strong enough to fend it all N, or... not exist as much... in either case... something else -

Insane front on that Euro run ... And ...now there's actually a BD in the region this morning, according to WPC's most recent sfc analysis - NAM had 16 C at Logan by 00z tonight and it was difficult to see any BD in the guidance but peeka-boo Not exactly a "hot pattern" when we're getting taxed at either end. If this is real/right...the ENE drift will become and intrusive bust on temps as far west as Kevin by late in the day. The frustration of these: notice the front is actually moving SW against the pressure gradient depiction here ...

It’s when just the tip goes in the wrong aperture during a spirited bout of love making ...

Having said that ...there's more to CAPE then DP ..too - ...I don't know, depends on the integral of the free convection area of the sounding and if d(tv) is lame, high DP can be wasted..

Yeah I tend to agree here, too - ...models getting cutesy with metrics like that at this range. Obviously it can happen - but it's a delicate set up and it will get fractal pumped Lol... Best just think synoptic experience and then if we get closer and it's consensus and shit...sure.

Really ? huh. it has all the QPF mottled across the Saturday afternoon and night charts - ...I went ahead and made the assumption earlier in my mind that we were finally pooling theta-e

agreed ... both. It had this sort of idea ...or at least 'synoptic vulnerability' to the layout on the runs yesterday, but this has been pushed out to Sunday ..either way. Some complain about the look over the weekend but I think is awesome - that has decently active thunder storm .. Saturday could be better in the afternoon than modeled, then MCS late at night...Then Sunday with frontal forcing

Yeah it’s 81 here and their trajectory is lower el from this region. I mean they may have a warm problem with instrumentation at that particular site but today is not a good day to test that assumption

Right - so now American technology has NO viable modeling option

has to caboose the word "partying" there - nice lol

I was just noticing that yesterday ...yeah. weird - why isn't it raining in the trough out west.