Typhoon Tip

Interesting... the NAM is also several DM deeper than the Euro with the trough at the end of the weekend, too God are we nerds -

oh, okay ...I was implicitly clear all morning and going back to the summer of 2017 that I don't use the GFS - lol- Do you program these sounding tools with the Euro parameters ? I'm curious what those look like. The Synoptic charts at Pivotal are 40 to 50 kts at 500 mb sigma, between 60 and 72 hours..and paltry at 700 mb. That's actually an interesting model fight there. I mean yeah ... 70 kts is substantially more conservation of mass argument forcing ...where 45 kts in the Euro is probably below the atmosphere threshold ... No wonder - This is an experimental op! We should see how this trough verifies because... The Euro is shallower with the trough depth by 60 hours ..by 6 to 10 dm, and GFS being deeper likely atones for it having to accommodate that depth with fast mlv winds

what ? where are you seeing that -

Mm ...no, not 'screaming' (2nd bold). Getting a bit excited ? This is really a 'weak setup' .. .One that is in a sense getting lucky that there aren't butterflies flapping wings to interfere. Those are 30 ...maybe 40 kt streamline geostrophic flows coming around the eastern side of a filling trough at levels ... But yeah tonight ... unusual polar pressure wall uprights the 700 mb flow over the surface front to maximize isentropic lift rains. They can gush... I don't have a problem with emerald greening the lawns ... but after that surge peels away tomorrow ... Does the vestigial frontal washout like the ICON... Or, does it surge N with the extremeness of the NAM.

Yeah ... 'frontogenesis' is right - as in, the temperature gradient along an actual warm front. The more I look at this...it appears like the "fuzzier" physics of mid range modeling were 'miss-interpreting' the whole weekend as a slow moving coastal/Nor'easter. But as we are getting into the short range on this thing ...it's devolving away from that to more of lead warm frontal wave tonight, followed by a murk day tomorrow afternoon in wait as the whole vestigial baroclinic axis retrogrades back N as a warm front. I think "Pope" poster ...like 'jenet' can't recall his handle ...here it is, jbenedet, mentioned this yesterday, credit to him, but I agreed at the time: heights are trying to bulge WAR-like back west toward the EC.. You can actually see this in the D4-10 Euro ...in the sense that it's trend over the last few cycles is to raise height everywhere over the east coast ...and in order to get there...the support for that sort of cyclogen is washing out .. OR, just notice the mid level/500 mb trough circumvallate is filling. In fact, by 60 hours, the 00z oper. Euro is 576 dm in a state of rapid filling...and the GFS is still trying to fester a 568 dm hole with that thing. I've been wailing about the GFS depth bias for months... strikes me suspect

Sorry I'm late to the ball-game ...haven't seen much since yesterday until just this last hour. It looks like the Euro's 12z to 00z trend is trying to edge the "second wave" (Sunday/Mon) farther E in time but ... the American models are hinting ...this whole synopsis is slowly devolving away from cyclogenesis, to more of an active overrunning soupy warm front. The GFS still thinks it's the blizzard of '78 regardless .. I've seen these countless times... The cold front that came trough yesterday does have a minoring lead wave along tonight... tho vastly over wrought in recent NAM solutions... But then that smears off and heights abandon and fill on either side, and leave the surface trough as more of a theta-e leading edge and a DP surge that moves back N with retrograding vestigial frontal pressure trough... It could actually be ( warm and muggy relatively speaking...) Sunday evening, though wet as hell. ..then the whole thing just sort of disappears late Monday... and then the rest of next week looks like 78/73 murk with mold problems ... great. SIgnificant heat trying to set up in the extended... we'll see on that. But the ..."unusual aspects" of this weekends over-arcing synoptic evolution means that there is bit higher uncertainty involved. Maybe one can get lucky. Otherwise, I think this is not an outdoor weekend.

So I take it that is the final verdict ... James died from complications involved with COVID ?

Symbolically as tho it is happening at us like it’s personal.

He agrees now that I brought it to his attention… He said it was moving slower than a typical meteor which made him pause

That’s funny… this post of yours is right around the time that my friend texted me that he saw a meteor streak completely across the sky - huh. I would assume there’s a pretty obvious pattern difference between a man-made object in orbit and a burning up meteor ...

Now that this looks like it was man-made and man-made to be a bio toxic weapon it seems pretty clear that if you are of the no vaccination ideology you’re not dealing with an organically occurring predator here - bear that in mind when you have your ideology. This could not be a more clear-cut case in which the circumstance requires exceptions to the purist’s rule - you’re playing against a loaded deck. In that sense you have to cheat to level the playing field and by that I mean compromise- part of being intelligent is knowing when that is truth. Try wrapping that into your conceit of virtue.

Yeah ...I think far NW zones could see some breaks but even there it's iffy - that's going to have a ton of moisture trapped just beneath the 800 mb level ...that level is hugely warm aloft compared to a weird 900 mb cold slab that's being saturated with an E jet feeding ... even if we somehow evade the lift thrust after Saturday morning... I'm not sure we break - Course, this is all based upon what we are seeing in the runs now.

I distinctly recall some painful forecast busts back in those mid 1980s ... 3rd even 4th period blizzard watches with ticker scrolling - remember when that was a thing lol ... - over how early indications are this would rival 1978 this and that and other cryo apocalypse.. Dim orb sun and flurries - Oh but the Cape! ... I mean, that's got to be absolutely greatest positive busts, them two that did that, in the history of positive busts - ? just be shear magnitude. mean Dec 23 1997 comes close, but ...that one didn't have a lightning an hurricane force routine transport gusts... It was attempting to ablate the Cape off the planet by sustain 55 mph gusts to 70 mph ...wrapping power lines around trees... in a talcum powder down to innerspace visibility.... Oh man...sitting in class the day we were supposed to enter 6 days of National Guard and shelters .... OH ...it was always "Drag" on as the forecaster on those tickers too - hahahah....

Mm hm ... some might use the expression 'damning,' too - ...as an afterthought ... well, recollection really - I thought of this a while ago, as I'm sure others have: what is one 'plausible' "simple" explanation for "seeing the urgency" of this so much more direly - and rapidly - compared to SARs from 18 years ago? ....subsequently; OR the lesser known or remembered Pandemic of 1967-'69 ... etc. Any of those. 2011 there was a hand sanitizer scare off a new Swine-type influenza that peetered ... This one shot out of the gates already in d-day fearing dystopian fervor mode like ...too conveniently built right into the damn thing. I mean, maybe we shouldn't auto- impugn ALL paranoid thinking - sometimes unusual events need some f'n explaining, and in the absence of a truth circuitry that really connects the dots in a meaningful way ... brains will tend to do that on their own - hello? lol ...but dry humor aside - they're not always totally wrong. what is the reason for 'bi-passing' safety/testing protocals and bringing the vaccine on-line and into practicum while still in Beta? C'mon ...the scientific process was circumvented ( partially) is what the means; urgency deduced too fast at the onset to be of enough greater importance. Why? How? To mention, having gotten to Beta at record pace, no less ?? ...there was a reason to rush. Maybe it is because 'the top' knew all along ... These are all unusual and difficult to explain protocol anomalies. Come to think of it... , they'll smoke-screen going after Trump because back against the wall, a narcissist will gladly reveal all. (... just being devil's advocate - not saying I personally believe these aspects to be fact ) If we really want to go Clancian over this... maybe there is a reason why there have been voice-altered phone ping from "caller unknown," to world-renowned global ecologist ( sorry...cannot recall his name/salutation...) - the events of which have been quietly buried. These exchanges often were of the, "never mind - it is not important who I am, nor the persons I represent" ilk. "Can you please just answer the questions," at 3 am - sure...I guess. and the questions were centered around places on the planet most likely to survive a cocktail of 'climate holocaust and WMD implementation' ...really disheartening and discerning to say the least.

Mm I see that - After that, almost looks like an attempt at a Bahama-blue pattern.... Tropical marine clear air/ quasi tropical sounding curls all the way up to Maine on a deep layer southerly conveyor. They're interesting patterns. We can get into interesting weather from training tropical downpours. Brilliant white turrets against emerald blue in those oceanic clear air DPs to 76, but not exceptionally high temperatures. I mean 84/76 I've seen that with streamline flow from Nassau to Kennebunk - Getting ahead of my self ..but that GGEM has that look, as this weekends tortured scenario sort of just fades into a deep transport look up the eastern seaboard. Either way, the whole thing this weekend defaults the heights to 582 upon leaving - interesting. It's like the whole ordeal is sort of symbolic of just being a big warm front taking three days to admit it...heh. Actually the GFS smacks of that out there too -

I think we're gonna find this went all the way to the top ... May take history ... work of historians to expose. Altho - a wild card on that, "cabals" can't maintain concealment as easily in today's 'overly probed' techno- babble driven society(s), so it may happen sooner. The 'probing' into the assassination of JFK terminated pretty abruptly at the doorstop of the KGB's plausible involvement - top brass, to pentagon think-tanks, to the joint chiefs would fatefully agree ...best not implicate the sovereignty of the former Soviet Union in that era ... an era that just recently featured a smoldering bout of humiliated and expose' by western resolve winning, in that stand-off known as the 'Cuban Missile Crisis' ... Similarly ... at 'the top' there may already be a > 90th percentile confidence in knowing 'where and how' this SAR-Cov-2 originated ... Some 6 months ago, the former Director of the CDC, Dr. Robert Redfield, espoused his reasoning for believing where and how - and it makes a lot of sense. Sometimes an explanation is just too simple and obvious to be ignored. The gist of it is, ... pathogens take time to get it right - in terms of those infectious proficiency. When introduced to a new genomic target group, they are 'clumsy' so to speak, with low percentage success rate, and limited there in. But, through the vicissitudes of time and mutation, they 'get it right' and rise later on to become potential pandemic agents. SAR-Cov-2, did not take that gestational arc - it hit the population perfectly adapted, right off the bat. right from whatever source origin for max virulence and pathogenicity. ...SO those privy and scouring and paranoid ( lol ) and doing the research ..this is all old hat at this point. But. on one had, you have an infectious agent that over came trillion::1 odds in one try ... or, - Moreover, with the relationship China has with the west ... not to mention all the island building and satellite targeting, and cultural history that has less morality about just being f'ing liars and thinking they are actually getting away with it while bald-faced doing so... Not to mention they're are matching the armament of the west at sufficiently WMD scales to ...end both sides ... this may be a situation where 'the top' buries certain truths in much/for the same general gestaltic sort of reasons as they did back in the 1960s.

again... the rain Friday and Saturday appears still on target and has for the last 2 ... 3 days worth of modeling. That 2nd wave creeping the coast Sun/Monday looks iffy to me and I don't trust the NAM there at all -

It's a fun solution meteorologically ... bit water/hydro concerns even - But keep in mind, the old NW NAM bias rule > 48 hours is definitely going to be in full-effect in this scenario.

On the fence for the weekend with this ... It's an unusual look. It's doing this at the ceiling of the heights where it can. One contour greater and your in a positive anomaly in the overall larger synoptic scope; yet that one contour ( all of 6 dm worth!) sagging through the eastern Lakes, gets caught in amber, and as its paltry 30 knt circumvallate of mid level flow "rages" on ...that some how has enough mechanical forcing to impose all that inclement sensible dread ... So yeah, not physically impossible. Just rare. It's interesting in that regard if people let it - heh... good luck when it comes to a coveted 3-day weekend getting stolen - I know... I just think that even though this is happening at the top of the height layout ... the baroclinicity is rather large underneath with that thickness gradient between midriff Ontario and the lower OV. The top heavy pressure pattern with a high north's underbelly of long fetched easterly flow will pool mid level theta-e to then get folded back over the top of that lower level baroclinic wedge ( west east ambient polar front) ... blah blah. Think of it as maximizing through the geometry of the set up, more so than fluid mechanical jet potency ... then the whole thing festers.... It's dealing with a scenario that is 'just enough' to get the stolen weekend done. But...that also requires knowing it is fragile ... It wouldn't take much to squish that E-S and surprise salvage - it just seems the models don't want to ever really do that. Ha ha. That whirl on satellite up stream looks pretty real to me this morning regardless - I was kind of hoping we could bring back that NAM solution that put down 2.4" along the pike - but was fair by Saturday night. That run seemed to salvage Sunday with 64 partly sunny...before that weird unlikely 2nd low came up the coast. ...But if that had happened? How ironic that all this stupid 'stein' vernacular kept getting bandied annoyingly and unrelentingly ...and we'd end up with a May positive anomaly in rain.

Heh yeah ... this NAM run will require flood watches

Looking at NCAR this is behaving about as planned ... you can see clear indications of earlier outflow organizing into a 'bow' swath and new activity forms right at the wedge interface as it now propagates sort of down the Mohawk Trail. It's 91/66 here averaged on home stations but I don't trust those DP least of those numbers... temp matches KFIT ASOS tho.. Lapse rates are also limiting some of this... I wouldn't be shocked if this is a wind acceleration and light activity by the time it gets to eastern zones. This whole set up was just slightly too early relative to heating hours. Need to be synoptically another 3 to 5 hours along I think

Yeah that year... swear, no month has remotely rivaled that May for shear awe in misery ..not since, nor before. It's like the 1978 Feb Blizzard of shit show Mays, the paragon of anus that all others are compared...

Why is Sunday bad? Coarse product at psu looks fine Sunday morning. But I’m not worried about this Euro run now that look at this because it’s actually stepped back from how bad it looked at 0Z ...so it’s still got continuity issues. I think that weekend still up in the air because the flow is weak - we won’t know until we get it right on top of it. All these features in the atmosphere don’t have a lot of physical presence ... otherwise we would have more agreement more continuity at this range. I mean that is the weakest 500 mb impression of anything ever so where is the Euro getting all this sfc response from. Interesting.

What was mem weekend, 2005 like ? I really don't recall... But that was the year of the infamous May cried out in terror ... with 2.5 week's worth of consecutive 42 F days with 3 nor easters in between drizzle. 0 sun, ever. lol anyway, seems that's a candidate for a pan-dimensional punt, too