Typhoon Tip

I agree with you here pretty much entirely re cold handling - yup. But I am intrigued by that bold statement. I'm not sure I find that to be true so much anymore - in fact, rather the opposite. I've been trying elucidate/bring that to awareness, that we have been consummately correcting mid range events more tepid in character by the time they get to short terms; something I've noticed since the last great near term sudden correction back in 2010 as I outlined. I'm not sure if NCEP is doing this... Or if it is just an artifact of fast flows, and the models correcting for that they have to introduce neg interference ...etc... Both facets could also be true -

So ... the obvious take-away from that statement is that if this behaves as currently modeled, it has essentially never been observed Now that's an interesting system. For the general reader: Doesn't do the winter/snow enthusiasts much good to say that; there's less virtuosity there. However, for the purer Meteorologist/scientist's perspective, this would-be event becomes a truly historic event - worthy of study, and amazement ... Funny how that works... I agree with the essence of 'lock and loading' as the current interpretation. It's hard not to give into that as the objectively aware. At some point, we have to accept that we live in a techno-era when weather-related modeling doesn't offer as many corrections at < 90 or so hours; in fact, I'd even go so far as to say "drastic" corrections really are a thing of the past, too rare to really 'realistically hope.' ...relative to what one wants, of course. There are those that don't want a snow storm - but who cares about them, right? LOL. They scurry and hide amongst us, in the crevasses of the forum landscape, like the early rodent like mammals of the HUGELY lopsided competing Jurassic's apex reign of predators. Ha. Anyway, the last I can recall a short duration modulation ... whence hope seemed to will a consensus desire... I have to go back to the 2010 "Boxing Day Storm." That was 12 years ago. If anyone knows of any since, ...yeah, I'm not saying there haven't been others. But to be fair, we mean all but completely abandoned by machine and man interpretation that re-materialize @ < than 48 hours. I see couple of "minor" reasons for hope in this. But I want to emphasize minor. 1 .. The last piece to the puzzle technically still has not been relayed off the Pacific. 2 .. As we are all aware... our near miss ocean storm will soon be teaming up with arriving arctic-polar high, and really advect some nasty cold during the 24 ... 36 hours preceding the event - beginning in earnest tonight. Which as an aside, later this eve and overnight, that looks like an open sky lapse rate momentum sharing opportunity to me. Those 30 kts sustained mid BL CAA vectors on the NAM easily come down to tree tops in gust. ...Anyway, that won't help us very much IF ... the models are correct with the the large synoptic circumstance of the surface high at 54-60 hours ... suddenly unanchoring and slipping E. I have seen 9 F at dawn become, soar to 62 F in just 12 hours ( Late Jan 1994) - it can happen! However, there is a slim room for the +PP departure to be less problematic for cold. If the third piece of the puzzle comes in and is weaker... the southern stream won't get drawn as far N, quite as prodigiously as the models currently have. Thus, the track of the everything, ...mid and below, ends up SE as a later adjustment. 2 .. there is yet another fleeting possibility... Suppose it comes in stronger yet. The S/W ridging you see rippling out ahead of it across southern Canada ( left to right above ), would likely evolve stronger... Consequentially ...also as later adjustment, the the high pressure ( 54-60 or so hours) would transiently holds on longer as this mess comes N. That could have an interesting counter-effect of creating damming/'barrier' jet activity, and .. .heh, more of a moral victor than anything else because that slam the warm sector intrusion shut.

Wait … using the NAM at 72+ hrs seeming kinda risky … particularly considering it tends to carry in with NW bias at that range. Course it helps your case I suppose that the Euro isn’t altogether much different … I almost wonder if the fact that these NAM solutions more than less agree with euro (or vice versa) should be a red flag. If one has to be a pessimist about the storms and they’re going to have to have admit that the NAM is spot on ballz accurate at 84 hours lol

Too bad George001 wasn’t a type-A personality with an adversarial narcissistic sensitivity disorder … then reading that. - popcorn and coke awesome

Depends which model one considers the most … Someone needs to ping George. This becoming a very serious situation with this latest

I like how whatever model shows the most Debbie Downer abysmal sore butt solution gets apparently full proxy over the tone and tenor of spirit in this online paragon of functionality ..

Hey George … it’s a little concerning that the NAVGEM has a 979mb low in Cape Cod Bay … what’s your opinion the impact -

Plus… It technically hasn’t “chased” GFS Kev keep in mind they run at the same time but we don’t get to see the euro until it’s a couple hours or more later. That might give the illusion of it running or chasing it rather but it really just kind of moving back-and-forth in tandem

In theory .. yeah. It's just beginning as the occlusion axis is riding up the coastal plain... If it started 4 hours sooner, than the conveyor Brian posted gets trunked and the 700 mb mechanics continue to dump thru an isothermal column.. probably ORH-PSM if that were to happen - from 4 day out no less - hahahaha. just sayn'

wow is that close .. there at hint of closing off the 850 mb - what's interesting is that it's doing that slightly more so than the 06z, which is was a tick or two colder sort of ancestral run to this one's look. Anyway, ... obviously should that happen just a little more physically realized, what ever happens NW stays that way.

It f'n better snow outta that 18z run cuz if the rest of that thing's right we press on from that storm through a riveting 300 hours of repetitive dry arctic fropas and soothingly warm tundra blows

April Fools Storm 1997 was a bit of a bust ( positive) but it was actually pretty well sniffed out too. I remember Harvey on air motioning some 5 days prior while saying, " should this feature pass under our latitude ..." Well, guess what happened. But, Barry Burbank the day before was calling for 6-12" - which is well above climate as it is, anyway. Yeah... I think 30" is of blue cake is probably a bit more than most expected, particularly when metro west of Boston reported something like 6 hours of lightning and thunder with it. So have to technically call that a positive bust - but I was up at UMass still and there was back office discussion about the ominous look of that mo-fo'

The era of that kind of positive bust is probably behind us ... (at some point we have to beginning weighting the AI, particularly < 4.5 days) but man, would now ever be a good time for that! Have it bump from TTN to the arm of the Cape the day before. Talking 4" --> PL/cold rain vs 4" + 18" I mean there's two types of positive bust. There's the utter blind side. But, then there's the arrogant fixation by the conceit of technology and belief, going straight to hell.. haha. An example of that would be the forecast for a minoring dust in obscurity that was set to describe December 23 1997. The then, "ETA" was the go-to premiere meso model - possibly because it was the only meso model. Oh wait...or right, I think the NGM was around then still. Anyway, in the evening of that day, digging out of 18" of snow ... 90% of which fell in 3.5 hours, said dust verified as a comet impact in history. I mean, literally ... no headlines, to society stoppage in 6 hours of wtf-titude. making me laugh thinking back.. oy. Yeah, probably the tech is to the point where that sort of thing is a thing of the past.

God ...was just scanning that for ...where I might have slipped a monster ( heh ) in there... anyway, why did I write this - ugh "...I think this has room to amplify sooner, and track further west ..." My fault! sorry guys. sonovabitch

Y-hah, kinda like, "'Scuse me while I kiss this guy"

NO shit - something in 2012 hot syringed testicles? ..haha 2012 man. ho man. That is bar none, numero uno ( like saying it in another language makes it even more so, right -) the worst f Jan -Mar in history. The only thing that ( sorta ) redeems that Turkish prison sentence of a winter is that October 30 waste of clown space storm. As amazing as that was, any winter enthusiasts out there NOT willing to trade that p.o.s. in for a better January two.5 months later? 'Course, I'm a little biased against the Octo-bomb because I have a personal fetish about NOT losing power for any reason - but that's just me. Which I did for a week. What made that rub particularly chaffing is that since I am the last person an a 10,000 service trunk, I was of course by dumb f'n CD luck, right next door to a trunk that did not lose power that long. I spent 4 day in dark cold, while musics and light, and the aromas of dinner cooked within plain sight. I will never forgive 2011-2012 for weather. But... on a personal note ( LOL ) I was able to play disk golf every weekend Jan and Feb, in cargo shorts and light sweat shirt. Open fairways ... not bugs... now over grown prickly shit in the fields. Lots of light wind.. It was a utopia for that sport.

Yeah ...the reference to those dates wasn't in deference/context that way - ..interesting interpretation, tho - It was written in black and white 'medium to major,' first, in bold, and that impact was 'TBD' The references to those dates was not a context for assigning to this one, those as analogs. No - Like I said.. .whatever - I think the bigger aspect of interest is that those sentiments originally put forth are still where we are at some 70 page later - that's funny.

When was it touted a monster? I dunno - the thread was headlined with these sentiments, "Confidence grows for a moderate to major, low latitude transferring Miller B/ Miller A hybrid then gets foisted up the coast as a "hook low" ... *However* with such a high upside I feel monitoring is necessary.. ... confidence remains less than medium. It's an important storm - how much impact and where, TBD. " Not sure that confers 'monster' but whatever. Frankly nothing's really changed LOL... Think about it, I mean... doesn't that rather aptly describe where we are at right now, still at 96 to 108 hours lead? It's like NBA basketball games... Watch the first 5 minutes and the last 5 minutes - that's all one needs. 'Course, that takes the d-drip journey away, just sayn'.

Funny you mentioned this dude... I have been scratching my head over this ever since it started doing that about 10 minutes after we made this f'n thread. The models insistence with that behavior, jesus... it's like there's some sort of atmospheric magnet with neutron star Gaussian pull, anchored over Utica NY. This storm could be on Mars, the models would find a way to put it west of Albany.

Actually ... common function of vernacular aside, I don't ... because at a glance, LBSW looks like LGBTQ to me, and may as well be a derivative of the movement for all I know because I don't know what what the former means - We make up abbreviations in here that requires a bit of fuller on-board life-saddling commitment to keep track of - I'm not a candidate for linguist.

It's been showing up for quite awhile, and last night the numerical representation of the telecon likes the 19th -24th. There is a bit of flex in the PNA with modestly neg NAO tending modulate back up - It's beyond the free EPS sites vision though, and the individual GEF members are all over the map. Icon hints strongly fwiw Lol

It's kind of an odd deep/total layer evolution... It's attempting to capture and stall for 3 hours over Mt Wachusett... Don't normally see system perform pirouette at that location but the whole of this thing has got its peccadillo

For me there are three main deterministic hurdles: - correctly sampling the current S/W in the N stream passing SE through Alberta - correctly sampling the S/W currently just beginning to nose in off the Washington/Oregon coast(s). - the proficiency of phase ( amount) once they are both ejected into the L/W ... east of 100W through the synopsis Little longer observations: That last point is dependent to some degree on the first two. The larger hemispheric manifold/instruction is that the western +PNAP is subtly increasing, and that is helping to bottom out the trough over eastern mid latitudes. phase roficiency: at one end, full phase. I visualize that resulting in slowing down, deep, massive and powerful. This is the less likely, but not 0 chance. The flow is too fast and that disrupts the kinematic "fusion" if you will. A bigger western ridge expression would tend to start that process - I can't find a run anywhere that's doing that. But I suppose there's time. in the middle you get partial phase. This ... This is [apparently] the preferred idea of the EPS/ Euro. Basically, the lead is what it is ...but the NP S/W borrows in from the NW, and that tips the flow N along the EC ...and anything in said flow goes with it. So in that sense, it is "rotating" around the stress of the S/W's approach ( which is physically keyed into the planetary wave space so is thus having more proxy - ). at the other end, no phase. This would mean the S/W approaching acts more like a 'kicker'. The lead wave gets ejected probably more NE as opposed to N or NNE. It's hard to know where along that spectrum this will be.. but I suspect the large circulation is more confident, ... the interactions within will become so probably when this is more 84 ... 72 lead.

I'm a bit behind, Will ... but for me, the last 3-cycle consolidation trend ( lesser and lesser spread members) of the GEFs mean, is a red flag.

I think he means me, my name is John, and I have mentioned the facets heh... I'm just modestly concerned about this tendency for Pac mechanics to be "over-assessed." There's been a kind of leitmotif over recent years of modeling frankly, sometimes more obvious, other times more nuanced. I don't really think it is done on purpose - that part has been tongue-in-cheek. But rather dependable, one can anticipate losing kinematic ("might") once a coverage has moved from 168 to 72 or so hours. In this case, that matters. The ridge is too far west of climo, but...prooobably that is compensated by the speed of the flow - tending to stretch x-coordinate. I am noticing the original conception of the GFS to phase is out the window. These two waves end up not phasing. That is very important, because as is, the lead is quite powerful, but if the aft approach "kicks" more...it ends up driving that lead toward the NY Bit and not allowing it to move/capture a low toward Upstate NY. This above idea is nicely exemplified by the 06z GFS, with ~ 10 or 15 kts of additional wind momentum in the NP at 84 hours, and I don't really believe the "hints" more coastal commitment are in jest.