Typhoon Tip

I'm about as confident in the Euro's over all complexion of that range of time as I am in the GFS succeeding in halting society for a yard or more. The Euro's puzzlingly bad performance at 96 hour lead wrt to the weekend "ghost" ...not sure what's up with that but it elevated a suggestion ongoing performance, to something more obviously peculiar going on with that model. I still saw it operate better than the other guidance in a few different facets this winter, so..it's probably endemic to the pattern we are in ... and/or perhaps just that one weird positive trough handling - I dunno. But my point is, we can't ( obviously and duh - ) bank on a climate ceiling depiction at D9 in one hand, while in the other, the Euro's on probation for whatever and whenever it does beyond D3 at this time. I would conclude - thusly - that this is mere noise ... if it were not for the fact that ~ 1/3 to 2/5ths of the GEF individual members I reviewed, carry important Nor'easter up the EC D8-11 - which is a large enough improvement from the 00z cycle to nod to the notion there may be something there. What that is "up in the egregious pun air"

Yup...that's exactly what happened... that wave pushed through the west and negatively interfered with the eastern seaboard.

We'll see where the D8 Euro goes with that pretty 'fish hook' amplitude approaching. There's too much trough pushing new through the W though and could be an unwelcome guest.

That whole model's a flag - as in a white one waving in surrender

Word! yeah... 'magine a storm that blips a down spike across global economic graphs -

Rival? heh... nah, wins is the word. 2013 was a huge storm for a vastly smaller area... This 12z GFS? It is multi-regionally historic/crippling, in the same event. It's also just ISE-wise in another category ... as is coherently suggestive in review: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20130208.html But, that is by no means an attempt to abase the power and majesty of 2013 and hurt anyone's feelings that associates that event spiritually significant to the existence of their soul, either... Just objectively comparing history with this GFS run - which is equally as excruciatingly nerdy a thing to do as the storm in question... hahaha

Funny... I was just thinking about the psychology of that... If that happened, and it never snowed again this season, you'd feel that way for an below average snow year. Lol - now that's funny

Ye ha! lol.. But, I can see why it is doing this - mm...see, it's probably dopey for us to "analyze" that thing but fwiw - it's not the typical model fractal phantasm at 300+ hour emergence. This is taking a full bird Miller A, not a weak one to begin with ... , and it gets utterly subsumed by a N/stream wave that is connected/rooted in planetary scale wave progression across the continent. It's basically the perfect storm or close to it ... about as close to the kinematic ceiling as can really even happen... Buuut... the numerical PNA doesn't have any interest in sending any kind of signal into the east. The graphics look if anything like we are heading for a thaw turning the page into Feb - which is another debate and open still... The GGEM and the Euro had D10 coastals on their 00z. There may actually be something there at that time, but it probably modulates vastly less and more middling - that would be my first stab but we'll see where the ensemble gather going forward.

Good christ ... 20+" just west of the Va Naval yards... at least that much all the way up... In fact, this maxes probably between DCA and PHL with 30+ ... but 20+ clear to southern Maine.

Man.. d-drip solution Chakra channeled straight from Shangri-la solution D8-10 on the GFS That's no HECS ... it's a BECS Bible bomb -

Other way around... the move switch from negative to positive was the focus of the study.

That's a monster at mid levels ... D10 .. vague support at best, however, so best advice is to set one's expectations accordingly - which given those indicators ..expect that NOT to happen. good eye candy.

I think this run, right now this morning ...is sort of pivotal in 1995 for assessing what happens Tuesday of this next week. Not so sure about 2022, tho. ( has that for spaghetti logic) Back whence, ...even through 2010-ish, we could almost count on wave mechanical relays from off the Pacific as having been 'under' assessed, and then they get physically sampled and included in the initialization and ... boom! Pays dividends to the winter enthusiasts over eastern mid latitudes. If not, one might at least observe better model continuity begin moving forward, also getting cross-guidance contention less distracting, too. Sometimes when doing so, what came out was a "Boxing Day Storm," short duration pretty babe pay-off. I have not seen pay-offs since then, like that. In fact, I've seen the opposite happen more often. Different discussion... But the S/W presently nosing over western Canada has been erstwhile over the Pacific for days. It's about to perform an interesting aspect in all the guidance I've scanned. It bifurcates passing over the Canadian lower cordillera, probably because the +PNA ridge is more likely to be considered a "west biased ridge," which stresses/ .. pulls the wave space apart went it starts descending latitude over that region. Anyway, some 1/3 ( or so..) of the wave energy shears off and tucks briefly over the SW... the remaining ballast moves progressively across southern Canada. It's after that that things get complex.. The energy in the SW gets kicked E as the +PNA ridge tries to reassert back into the west early next week. The N/stream then fails to show up at the party. It's too bad too...because the southern stream impulse is plenty to be a phase seeder space, but that N/stream just doesn't contain any meaningful new S/W to drill and have sex. It's okay though... if that southern ejected energy is better looking, it can put on a good show all alone.

Mm ... matter of subjective analysis, but I wonder if that "what if" would be so... If the -NAO was not a part of the larger synoptic circulatory manifold, I suspect autumn of 2006 ... 1999, with a flat ridge sans any meaningful CAA events through that month as likelier. Particularly 2006, stringing days near 60 ... even briefly 70 F. That also happened back in 1999 I believe it was...though it may not have lasted the whole month. I recall a six day stretch in the high 60s, two days of which were in the 70s that December. Both then, 2006 were dominating -PNA with virtually 0 polar mass field modulation S of the 50th parallel. I suspect "would have been" 2021. But that's my take - Having said all that... I agree this year's NAO was too aggressive, either way. What "if" we modulated that -NAO less strong? I have a personal hypothesis: we needed to modulate the -PNA less dominating, because that's the source-origin. The -NAO's character was driven by the former. It's complex, but, the super-synoptic forcing came from non-linear wave mechanics. Think 'rogue wave' phenomenon in the oceans. You have A, B, C, D ... H waves rolling/interacting, constructively and destructively interfering. That type of interaction means waves B and C may physically dump energy into H, while the wave spaces in between do not apparently observe effects. This is as opposed to linear wave interaction, where A directly influence B ... directly influences C ... F and so on. The flow was fast ( what's new since 2002 ~), and the mean polar jet suppressed along the west coast/Rockies, and instead of big direct, linear response of a ridge over the OV, there was a flat ridge, with even a modest trough in the west Atlantic. But all that stored momentum then buckled the flow hugely over ( in particular...) the western limb of the NAO domain region - that's H in this example. It gives the allusion of the NAO obtruding exertion, but it is ultimately caused by the same RNA.

Let us know when it starts …

Yeah... I'd caution folks not do that heh. I realize there's some snark comedy going on with it right now - not sayin' it ain't exactly earned, either. But we all blow it sometimes, and once the local hemisphere exits this 72 - 96 hour window, that needs to "reset" expectations. The look out there in the latter/deeper mid range is different in total so it's apples and oranges at either end of that span of time. Let's also be fair, the Euro corrected by 84 hours. A bit shallow for some tastes, and frankly, a bit out of character considering it's longer term verification profile, too. But, that's not nearly as bad as though it still carries it say ... spooking offices into headlining. The solutions dumped 3 days in advance. I think - not necessarily you per se but the general engagement in here ... - there is this tendency to impugn a guidance if they don't persist with dramatic solutions. It's getting into that aspect where where it seems the resentment is really about modeling experience ahead of time, and not having that be tainted, than it is the actual storm.

Yeah agreed... wrote a bit about that a couple pgs back .. interesting stream interaction could evolve there.

Ah ..well, it'll be an interesting battle perhaps. My personal suspicion is that the warm event frequency increase is connected to the Planetary concerns ( to put it "mildly" hahaha)... The SSW needs to fire off sooner rather than later or I will be a very dull boy ... spring enthusiasts don't need that happening in mid February... or you can check out until June 10 with packinmg pellet virga flurry days in May

You ENSO folks could also take a little pride away from a mild end/early spring. 'Less I'm mistaken, that tends to be the case with La Ninas. I do think the gradient rich hemisphere and faster flow that causes ... skews some of these longer term type telecons, but ... here's then thing, and there's no real away around this being that it's rooted in fact: The last 6 six years of Feb and Mar's have too often hosted big, and I mean approaching ludicrous warm week(s) event(s)... three of which were even 80+ prior to the Equixox, and barely out of the solar nadir of Mid or late February. They just slip below the care-radar, because some of those years also featured decent winter storms after then fact as blue bombies..etc. But those warm ups have happened regardless of ENSO states ... and they were alarming. When we are enjoying 79.4 F at 4:30 pm driving home from work on February 20th, we don't think of that as a "bad" but it's like +34 ... Sorry babbling .. .my point is, those don't appear to be driven by ENSO ... but rather, just seem to be happening with greater frequency. Won't go into why - that elephant is what it is... But, since La Nina favors early mild runs anyway, I wonder what happens if/when the former background is occurring during an El Nina year that is actually attempting to look La Nina for a change... Just a wonder.

Do you know the title ?

Low probability, but there is a non-zero chance for 'positive return' scenario early/mid next week ... monitoring interesting stream interaction 120 to 156 hours ( from ~ 06z start point for the purpose of this missive, but others may also have noticed this going back a couple few cycles) . Am aware we've been discussing the 22nd and 24th. This is relatable to the same 'synoptic superstructure' of concerns, but is a shift of interest to very late on the 24th through the 26th. Longer concept rendition: Part of the problem with the 22nd and the 24th they were too vague as focus times in a generally. They were chosen because there were at least 'soft' impressions nested in a general favorable flex in the +PNAP. I annotated how/why ...now scrolled between too many pages to bother dredging it back up, but note the 00z to 96z delta(hgt) overlapping the WC and B.C. of Canada, https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefs&p=500h_anom&rh=2022011900&fh=0&r=nh&dpdt=&mc= --> https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefs&p=500h_anom&rh=2022011900&fh=96&r=nh&dpdt=&mc= - also the case in the GEFS and GEPS, en masse consistently for days. Typically downstream of that kind of modulation, ( and the weight of the ens means/cross g support notwithstanding!) interesting goodies will evolve. It supplies a "correction vector" to the field pointed toward deeper trough materialization as to where the models are likely to correct toward - hence the terminology. Look for more amplitude to emerge in future guidance ... with no guarantees that will actually happen. Heh, we used to say, "It's not that my forecast was wrong; it's because the atmosphere didn't cooperate" LOL That was true for the 22nd and 24th .. I feel the simultaneous correction of the models to speed the flow, a leitmotif (recurring theme) where they correct the flow faster moving ext to mid range, intervened on intents and purposes so to sepak - ..don't wanna get into it, but they all do this and have been for years now. It I suspect it partially reared its ugly disruption, where the models have to deconstruct their own wave mechanics in time, introducing more and more negative interference as an increasing offset moving D9's to D5s. It could very well be why this phenomenon of huge systems tending to pedestrian as they get nearer..etc. It doesn't mean things can't be modeled and holed to happen. It doesn't always happen where the models do that. Also, if a given S/W are more amplified, they offset and still torque the flow more. Trade slow moving, very deep results, for shallower ( still potent) faster moving results. This idea below could be that as these two may significantly ( positively ) offset. This is the 06z oper. GFS, as it sets up a 132 hr vision.

There’s a clipper that keeps showing up … Tues. even in the models that don’t, there are gaps there and ‘nature abhors a vacuum’ in either principle or practice - that’s code for those perhaps filling one if that’s isn’t already happening There’s only so much room for that to amplify due to flow compression … but it could be good for an instability bursty 2-3 ..4” It’s also settling into that pattern look we’ve been eying that appears otherwise destined to fail … I didn’t personally feel comfortable about threading for either the 22nd or 24th because of the way spacing and tensions in the destructive interference it’s everywhere in the flow… Hoping that would iron its way out but it didn’t and apparently it’s just gonna go down that way. I think part of the problem is that “good pattern“ was also one hosting flow compression, yet again … caught up with a models. And that’s been an ongoing problem where the models tend to slow the flow down too far in the extended and then have to speed it right back up again; that’s introducing a +Delta( negative interference) overtime Anyway …watching a clipper …for now but low confidence overall

Lol... like, everything that's happened so far has been weird. Why shouldn't weirdness work for the better, just the same -

No dig on DT but that's funny LOL... So dead panned.

I dunno, maybe.... I mean what would cause that to happen? I don't see any mechanism for that, and in fact ...the flow being of canvased progressive in character, lends to these features maintaining their procession space - the flow is not going to accordion like that. It's more likely to have one or the other just end up too weak ( or weak enough) such that it doesn't interfere with the other.