Typhoon Tip

California may be in line for another historic heat run

It was always espoused by climate modelers that the change, despite the ‘warming’ adverb, is more oft expressed by volatility/ increasing occurrences of relative short duration extremes. Now I’m just a caveman but this week seems to suddenly qualify

This won't sound altogether cogently scientific, admittedly .. but, I get the weird 'feeling' this is ...sort of an introduction ceremony into a new climate realm where this occurrence takes place in certain regions with more ease than those staggering odds implicate in rareness. I have some analytic reasons for that, but I am trying to limit my verbosity in social media; in an increasingly patience reducing/aversion to spending that much time with it, it's wasting time. In short, there are regions of the planet that favor "synergistic" results. Those by convention ( being more than the sum of the contributing forces ...) will exceed the mean standard deviation models - by these exotic ranges, more readily so than regions that do not have feed-backs. Those location will be able to get those +8 and +10 oddities over that base-line numerical/statistical layout. The Pac NW is one of those regions. I think the Pac NW and also San Francisco and L.A. can do this again sooner than we think. The shit with fires and heat last summer ? that was no fluke and is related - whether the scalar values of the extremes match or not. And I would tend to assert that the aggregate speaks to the real state of the 'rareness' - I.e. not as much so as we may think.

lends credence to my PR hypothesis in NHC - I don't like it either. I realize their charge is to inform officials/ media, but it shouldn't be their charge to protect people by goosing attention awareness. That's on the officials and media - I dunno - don't wanna be in the habit of impugning them, but this thing is dubious like so many other cyclones that near population and suddenly get a kick up in category - it's enough of a coherent pattern. Just sayn'

You can see on satellite ...we actually had a shot at improving sky conditions here but that training rain bomb shit in the HFD CT corridor is dumping debris clouds up here, capping the murk and keeping our heads jammed in butthole weather

I think of today as -22 dep. Tomorrow as -15. And Sunday as -4, which at this time of year, isn't a bad temperature day. Particularly if the RH fields do cut open like I'm buckin' for. But, that will assure the entry into July is eye-popping below normal, so that the two grid stressing killer heat waves later in the month get insidiously buried by the means. Ultimately making a difficult endurance global warming July seem manageable. This is one of those theoretical Gaia's revenge months. I liken it to turning up the heat on toads in the pan of water, done on purpose ...we get to a point where we all die ..beguiled from seeing it happening the whole way. Problem solved - eradicated by 'turning up the oven dial to the Clean cycle' lol

I'm not sure Sunday's that bad. I opined early ... won't reload all that wordage heh. But, the NAM seems to have 'cooperated' with some of those concepts. It runs on the FOUS grid suggest18z with partly cloud RH levels, and both ALB and NYC are 20C in the mid boundary layer, and since all three (BOS) have light NW winds, it is likely the interior of Mass/NW RI and much of CT are probably partly cloud with temperature in the low to mid 70s by mid afternoon on this NAM run. There are synoptic reasons also to support this, in that the closed vortex is both filling but actively migrating away from the region between 12z and 18z Sunday morning, and the BL flow is N/NW which is d-slope. Those type of backside flows tend to be overly pessimistic in guidance with clouds and sometimes QPF ... but it ends up going partly sunny SE of the rought 1200 elevation contour. I'm sort of leaning that way -

Yeah... heh, hence the "I wonder" If that's the case than that's the case, "sustained" ... but the over-arcing concern is valid, and it is true there is a tendency to hike ratings. I don't know how much of that is policy or just humans buns making decision. Haha

Mm... I wonder. -some years ago, NHC began seemingly to bias their cyclone ratings based upon nearing smart-phone distracted population. LOL - I am not sure that is the best practice. This thing may go over the Islands down there with impressive sub 'cane gusts, and then the reliant civilian becomes accustomed pretty quickly into thinking, "I just experienced a hurricane" - this plays into their response tactic in future events, because they remember and think they really did.

You know this gonna yank on summer enthusiast short hairs to bring this up...but I miss that. We don't have those marginal snow nor'easters anymore, where the wind goes calm and the end game features an evening under an urban sky glowing butter-scotch hue while that lingering saturated layer just above adds graces a Rockwellian inch . 2 Meanwhile, snow is slowly congealing in the 31.9 F air under foot, and if you don't get out there and exhume the base of your driveway, it will be a veritable Jersey Barrier by dawn. Our snow storms either have to be 10F or they are 34 cat paws now. We've discussed this in the past ... I started musing about this phenomenon some 7 years ago, how marginal storms seem to flop positive now. We can't seem to hold a 31.9 F heavy snow without it committing to warm decimals - as tendency, mind you. I called it our "flop direction" is not longer .3 cooling but .3 warming - just symbolically. Maybe it's some obscure metric undefined about climate migration with CC? Subtle. It seem more so than it used to, we rely upon direct arctic injection to keep snow going here, more so than it seemed so to me while growing up in the Lakes and New England such that I did. There's no one particular year when this begin being the case. Just sort of is like that now and wasn't back whence -

I like that metaphor ^ ...the rad filled in after the baroclinic wall slipped NE and took that away. It reminds of that mood snow you get in the street lamps after a Nor'easter pulls away but prior to CAA kicking in ( well after Christmas ). There's a saturated layer around the 700 mb that cooling and has small growth region. I wonder if this is similar, just well above freezing -

Funny ...I had a refrigerator crisis earlier this week, too - My situation was a bit less complicated. It turned out to be hoarfrost and ice build up around the radiator coils. It was also packing into the duct that feeds the lower/main part of the refrigerator - it was clogged like a heart artery in WV with frost that was so dense it was partially ice - weird, almost styrofoam consistency stuff. It was long about Monday, some three days into the warm episode and nearing 97 that afternoon, when I noticed my two liter of Polar Spring ginger ale had beads of sweat and felt mild to the touch. In fact, the grated cheddar cheese was soft, too soft - like, "is this f'n melting?". And other left overs were beginning to 'radiate' if you get my meaning. "Ew - what is this?" The meats in the top load freezer compartment were cold to the touch, but had thawed - unfrozen... fish too. The frig had taking to a loud buzzing sound the two days before, but I thought it was just maybe struggling ...what with 97/74 averaged across my towns home weather stations, etc. Basically I had to toss everything, over 100 bucks worth of perishables. Cleaned it out for start, then ...started unscrewing metal and plastic parts ... I worked my way to find the above issues. Those clogs were stressing the fan, most likely ...so it was 'clicking', hence the buzzing.. I don't know how or why this thing chose when it did, to do this, but it never had in 10 years since I moved in - it was here when I got here ..who knows how old it is. I'm guessin' 25 years. It has an early .. mid '90s vibe about it. Live and learn - I made it to middle age without ever thinking about having to maintenance a fridge - I'm not sure one really has to? I never saw a parent or relative or heard of anyone having to eviscerate their appliance in that way but ..oh well - It's been bugging me to replace it. The thing is always running. The white factory paint has long failed and is crisscross with rusty marks and other stains that won't clean - kinda like the back-drop on an episode of "Vice" where is interviewing some meth user's kitchen. Heh. Between poor energy efficiency and aesthetics, I consider this whole ordeal a 'shot across the bow' - and went out and purchased a new Energy Start prorated new one. F if won't be delivered for a week. It was still Monday... forecast was high 90s, and at the time, this kind of autumn in July weekend was not yet predicted, so.. I was able to get this one back from the dead by thawing out all those coils and liberating them of their glacial load, and clear the cold duct clog... These compartments started cooling again, so at least I don't have to live out of a cooler - which is a pain in the "ice" But still, it is always running unless I turn the dial below the "Normal" setting, which is useless. I think it is just so old that it leaks just enough. Probably also not the best design. A lot of the 'charm' of this house I have found over the years, is that it was typical bubble-gum and band-aid cheaply fixed and or "updated" using end-around means over the years that are ( sorry a reality here, not a judgement) typical in lower income rural settings. Ha. Nothing wrong with that. It wouldn't surprise me if this fridge had some history with a Sling Blade cracker-jack fixer who jerried it because 1980s Ayer owners couldn't afford new appliances. My fault - I shoulda replaced this years ago. I'm sure if had a boobs and a gyna-wedge walking around in here, she woulda forced me to do so - bachelor dudes don't tend to give a shyte until they half too - LOL ... sorta kidding

It may just be a safety for low oil pressure/detection and having tripped some internal kill switch. Which of course if true ... that would require 900 $ to eviscerate the engine to find and reverse the switch. Plus whatever it costs to fix the oil leak. Parts and expenditure et al ...prolly talking 1300 minimum, or roughly 4 months worth of auto-payments ... hmm If that can be afforded at all, I might compare how much you had left on the loan, vs the consumer reports/facts about that make and model's longevity/ end life extension costs. My bet, ain't worth it. Just use that money for a down payment. But that also means, the car industry wins. Our society, especially wrt to cars, is a throw-away based economic model - they don't want you to fix or conserve and extend. The entire industry is based upon an assumption of endless resources feeding the manufacturing end; then, with an illusion that cars have to be owned to survive modes and ambitions, inherently every aspect is stacked in favor to getting onto a new loan plan for a reason Probably I'm guessing the car was paid off ? In which case that's the rub - you don't get a free car any more .. which is what major car manufactures hate. That's why it is cripples you to fix these things. Few other factors of course... J.Q. Mechanic needs his greed too -

Seems like every guidance I look at is going out of the way to hide how Sunday could turn out better ..jesus. The NAM's 18z depiction for early Sunday afternoon has 850 mb RH of >75% ...but is 60% at 700, and at or < 50% at 500 and definitely less than 50% at 300 mb levels. This profile implies that all the moisture loading is lower troposphere and boundary layer - probably in the form of strata/'pancake' ceilings. Naturally this to limit it's 2-metre T all the way down to a near historic 66 F for a high. The only problem is, no other metric nor our climate supports those features. - why is it doing that? - The wind is NW at that time..i.e., down slope. - The lift is gone - Though we dawn that day still in the cyclonic curvature bowl of the ( hint hint!) exiting trough, it is still exiting - and heights are in fact rising... That physically requires a DVM offset. Those three factors get more forcible during the afternoon promote improving ceilings. To mention, July 4 sun intensity is not being overcast by the higher 300 and 700 mb levels as denoted by the model's profile above - those level RH values offer at worse partly sunny and by criteria are mostly sunny if not clear, is shining that insolation power down over said strata CU layer? ...nope. Refuses. Not sure I buy that. This appears to be similar across the bevy of guidance though. Even the Euro is drier top down, in the backside rising height of the exiting trough, ..same essentials. Yet it too seems to think the 850 mb cannot be modulated. I dunno - seems like it can't do this but will anyway. Be that as it may, if it we start getting illuminated windows sun burst splashing by early afternoon, it just seems the guidance is too bullish in holding onto a shit show.

Currently looks like a decent band has set up HFD to BOS

I'm almost wondering if "some" of this horror story is exaggerated by convective feedback ... Here is the 12 z NAM or 21z ( 9 hour out) and you can see that the model is decidedly more morose in depiction in the upper MA than this satellite suggest will/is verifying ...

That D9 Euro ... if we go back to 7 or 8 or 5 whatever days before this last heat wave, that is just about a redux version of that those back-whence models showed. 594 again approaches the E from the E, while the heat in the west is buffered from injecting east by that residual trough/shear axis in the midriff of the continent. Interesting - strong argument for a base-line pattern persistence. Frankly that looks like a HC expansion ..and those ridges, west and WAR are just defaulting larger as that expansion goes... but hypothetic -

COBRA ... what a joke Cut off your arm and hand it to the lever operator ? it's amazing their economic model works. Perhaps even genius haha

Oh I've seen him before though - I don't remember 'im looking that way. Lol

who t f is that and why

I thought the Euro looked decent for Sunday afternoon ...no ? seriously what am I looking at then - The closed vortex is in the outer GOM area 12z Sunday morning. It isn't stalled - it's in motion moving out with rising heights already taking place back west. It's not instantly transformative, no - but 'improving' I bet that the skies are partial in CT and western MA and murky in Nashua at 9am, but both regions are cleaving sun splashes through enough by noon and the afternoon to salvage the 4th its self - on this run. 'Course may have to consider convective entertainment with residual albeit modest cool mid level heights.

There is that climate gauntlet down there .. I've heard all kinds of hypothesis - the best being dry air gets sucked off the S. Am N coast but ... whatever the cause, it is also muddled by the the notion, the Euro can't ever organize a TC on it's own. It does really really good after the fact. It misses the genesis much or the time, and then along about the time the genesis has finally become an actual presence in the initialization grid/interpolation, suddenly it swoops in, "Okay other models this is what's gonnna happen..." The GFS is wicked pisseed. No but it does have a stingy record with genesis in the tropics and so long as this thing is .. you know 1000 mb and/or less than 50 kts I'm not sure if the Euro's just being coincident with climatology in this case ? interesting - Right now the center is exposed from what I am seeing. The low level aspect has outpaced the convection at least for the time being. Needs new eruptions

Hah, I love triggering subjective irreconcilable, consensus -evasive debates. No one on-line has ever changed an opinion based on incontrovertible reasoning. Since the third law of the proletariat stalwart ( ... which states, subjective opinions will stay in motion until acted upon by sufficiently strong force ) cannot ever be sufficiently forced in an on-line medium, this biomolecularly precludes anyone ever can be really influenced at all. Lol, seriously, when was the last time anyone ever heard the phrase, " You know .. you've articulate your thoughts in a convincing, lucid, well materialized manner, and your points are satisfactory compensating for my love lost over a 58 f raining Xmas morning, so I'm gonna go ahead and change that component of my personality and spiritual make-up - thanks for your unworldly transcendent advice.."

Yeah that's something I noticed here yesterday, the pink lightning. Orange too - I'm wondering if the tall heights/ thickness may have something to do with that, bending of the light in deeper atmosphere and so forth. Just a guess. I also read somewhere when I was kid that pinky-orange lightning was typically a sign that the storm was dying/ and the electrical discharges were weaker so don't emit as intense photon radiation ...so perhaps achieving the same effect? Not sure, but yesterday's thunderstorms were excessively salmon lightning. Even CG's were pinky orange in person, so that photo above is actually on point.

Mmm not to be presumptuous in putting intent behind your question, but it 'sounds' like you're buckin' for a Long Island Express somewhere in there ... LOL The entire hemisphere could change in favor .. but at present, most leading indicators albeit modeled are only vaguely suggestive of large scale synoptic aspects that are common with that sort of entertainment. There are certain ideal modes of the atmosphere we'd like to see to get one to needle a pathway from 50 Mi E of Hatteras to EEN NH. 1 .. you want some sort of weakness or trough ...but not too excessively deep, parked in the vicinity of West Va. 2 .. some form of western-limbed NAO blocking is in the process of emerging. The flow between these too governing atmospheric modes directs whatever's near the Bahamas to turn N around the trough over WV, where/when it accelerates N but while doing so is prevented from curving E by the block downstream with the -NAO. Anyway, the NAO is neutral negative in the mean at GEFs/ CPC, while the PNA is bouncing neutral positive - it's not altogether impossible in those modes. It's probably why we are seeing pulled up N around the longitude of FL at all.. But the STR in the Atlantic now is too much and will probably direct this thing too far W ...effectively missing the key slots. The other aspect to keep in mind, there's no categorical paragons that have to be obeyed in these matters. It could go too far W of climate, but then cross Cuba's flat land aspects only losing 20 kts of momentum, before re-emerging, cutting across S Florida's equally impressive "10,000 foot mountains" before ending up moving N over the Gulf Stream east of the lina's. Oops.