Typhoon Tip

I went over the handle bars last year but was luck. Scrapes and bruises... People need to realize even at 15 miles an hour things can happen really fast

Ur kidding right? - I think those back pain meds might be havin some fun with ya lol. No no dude absolutely plays a huge factor. But it also depends on other factors like time of the year because by late August the water is less a negative impact on that. We have also seen 10s of negate stability decimate thunderstorms when it comes to CAPE it’s that sensitive

Probably all they did was extend a fiberglass rod and flip a circuit break/surge protector. I was told by journey man they try either automated or manually when the power goes out and if that doesn’t work then they send a crew out. An hour seems a little brief they probably flipped the breaker.

Top 10 day on Wednesday

probably but not a certainty -

just took note of that. interesting... I also noticed they shear off the hashing pretty abruptly E of rut-bdl New Haven line .. Can't say I blame them if by climate alone. But, we seem to have generated some decent CAPE here from BOS-HFD and points N ... I'm sure E CT and Providence are lower with the marine contamination; and I wonder if that start intruding farther north to overspread eastern sections - it almost seems it really should.

I noticed the Deer Fly population seem much more than recent years. Wonder what's up with that I mean usually, they lurk in the shade. So it's hot and sunny and you wander under for a break and you get these helicopter blood recons doing mobius loops around one's head and shoulders. They seem to have evolved a recognition to land on ones back of the neck as their preferred target .. yet still need to circuit around a bunch of times to get up the courage to land. This years there can be as many as four or five of them doing this and there's air-raid sirens going off - jesus. I've noticed flowering vegetation did really fantastic blooms this year. From the Lilac shrubbery sizes to the carpeting Alpine Delphinium, just neon colors in aromatic bundles. Bumble bees were plump with big yellow saddle bags slowing their flight speeds to ... well, bumbling. The blue in the blue sky days - not like today ... - has been usually pristine. Could it be that the 20 to 30 % halting caused by the Pandemic era allowed enough environmental cleansing of industrial farts to clear and detox the air ?

Know what ( as I bun myself - ) Keep that 190 sfc to 700 mb flow cranking. In fact, the entire flow out there in the guidance tenor thru D10 could really send the coastal oceanic SSTs from the VA Capes to Cape Cod soaring. Last I checked that region has reversed a cool anomaly into a warm one, already. SO, additionally cumulative surface stressing over time will push the warm surface layers into an ever- growing mass, and then with the sun? The only way to cool it would be evaporation but in the absence of continental low DP type air, the quasi-coupled atmosphere-water DPs are going to probably end up matching. So while the Tuscan sun blazes away for a week over that anomalous southerly flow, we could see some pretty fantastic beach water temperatures from Cape May to the Islands up our way - Then ... we cane muah hahahahahahaha Seriously, I remember in 1998, the water temperature at Narra. Beach was near or in history. I remember leaning over the causeway wall as the water clapped and rolled around kelp-maned boulders, and from the 20 or so foot vantage the water in the shallows was beginning to take on that more translucent form of blue-green tint, even cleansed enough to see the sand floor through some ten feet of ocean water - hard to typically in the Labrador current. You can tell it was kinda of still not there but trying? The swim temp was above 75 F if even warmer than that, and we were bouncing around in the waves for like 5 straight hours. If anything were feeling kind of hot from all the physical exertion of marathon boogie-boarding. Man, ..memories of being young enough to take those gut punches. That was back when the hot-dogs still caused colon polyps and coke hadn't moved through the formula change. Don't miss the cigarette smoke wafting past ...though it was of course okay at night, we'd be candid in Tiva's, torn now out-moded utility shorts, white shirts, buttons partially open to flaunt tanned abs, cigarette in one had, coconut rum drink in the other, hopping bars along the shores roads of westerly RI. Man, we'd still be playing beach volleyball by noon the next day. Different life ... now a point of light out there from vantage of an aft observation deck as this star ship called 'Wasted Journey" unrelentingly speeds toward old age, exceeding the speed of no-time-concept or awareness while years click by at relative speed of seasons.

KFIT 84/72 and being 10 mi E down Rt poop I can tell you the dragon doth fart -

Yeah, I was trying to figure out how and why the NAM was ruining the low grade heat wave that seemed imminent last Friday. Friday, it looked like one of those unsung 89.5 rounding heat waves, Sun - Tue. We ended up doing 90 at KFIT and KBOS ( didn't check anywhere else ) Sat too. And yesterday ... But today KBOS probably can't. One can see why on sat and sfc obs. The flow is veered into 190 and is thick . That warm fog and strata is the coastal marine/land tussle. That effect probably stays situated but may en road to N CT/RI.

GGEM also keeps the BL flow SW the whole time E of ~ Appalachia despite the compressed obtrusive -PNAP jams in. It want's both. Looks like that is a stressed construct; those don't usually last in operational continuity. I mean, if we didn't have: an exit La Nina seemingly bursting it's remaining influence might through a hemisphere that has shed the winter compression soaking and higher anomalous velocity ( ambient geostrophy suppressing and/or distorting the ENSO typology); at present, a deterministic GEF suite's PNA falling; a cadence in the operational runs that hints at timing a Rossby reposition ... it wouldn't be so believable. But seeing as we do have these compounding/converged telecons I think this is hot summer anyway, and these sort of early heat signals shouldn't be ignored as mere noise. But, by saying 'don't ignore', we don't mean load up the wagons and abandon the farmstead in 1934, either - just that in general, above normal is favored and in order to get those above normal temperatures, sounds like these will tend to emerge in the guidance chorus.

0z GGEM is 180 deg, diametrically out of phase with the Euro over the Lakes/OV/NE regions on D9. But the Euro is actually quite a bit more amplified with the WAR/latitude hybrid ridging S-E of LI than it's one EPS mean, which looks more maintenance of SW/Bahama conveyor.

That 00z Euro run shootin' for a top 3 warmest June of all time if that D4- 10 verifies. SW deep layer flow under rising heights for what essentially amounts to the last full week of the month, under +16 C at 850. Could even be Bahama blue pattern for two days with excessive DPs swathing up the coast. That then morphs into a continental heat wave as heights blossom to 595 dm and bubble west under LI on a west retrograde transit, cutting off the theta-e but drafting in 18 or 19 C's Iowa air in a deeply mixed ... oy It's one run and frankly the model doesn't have a lot of synoptic continuity with that look so it is what it is. But oper. GFS seems to have shedded some of it's cold height bias and is pulling/retrograding WAR west as well - noted that yesterday the GEFs PNA was crashing beyond D2 at varying rates of decent among the members. We'll see... but, in either case, the only aspect separating just a substantially above normal torridity pattern, from a deadly heat-wave in those looks, is a mid level shear axis out around 100 W. It's cutting off a W/SW N/A heat release/inject from homogenizing into that - otherwise that would make the entire U.S. from Chicago to Portland ( ME) unlivably hiding from some kind of a naturally occurring weapon of mass destruction.

This 18z NAM is pushing the thickness approach to 580 at only 26 to 28 C ( only ? ) in 980 mb - that's gotta be a Roman bath-house DP party out there Mon/Tue if that's the case.

As expected... MAV/MET and NBM for that matter were too dry on DPs today. All sites ALB/BAF/FIT/BOS 62 to 66 and apparently this may rise looking up stream. I think this changes the convective picture a litttle, how much or how little - But TCU tiling in a fast conveyor atmosphere from NY as we well above 85 and still rising . I suspect nicking 90 is possible with perhaps more CAPE than modeled.

Can we 'Bahama blue' ? I love that type of pattern. 83/77 with streets of training/narrow glaciators that choke rain for 2 minutes. Brilliant white TCU against frankly, a blue tinted sky that rivals anything you see in a Canadian October delivery - I mean the sack-sticking stink of it sucks but it's pure conveyor from Nassau

not to be a wise-ass but ...no one does? This stein stuff is all fun ( and dumb ) but gardens and neighborhoods eventually do gully-wash by either afternoon air mass deals, or .. more meso-beta scale by that sort of noctural cyclic stuff. I looked at your rad over night and there were three cells amid a rad cenama that lasted for a couple of hours, and these sort of scaled events are too discrete for models -

I also feel the d-3 risk may smear more E in time, given to the on-gong longitudinal corrective behavior of any guidance when moving through temporal seam between the mid and shorter ranges. I could see that synoptically getting to western NE/E PA N NJ and NY metro, and then in situ monitoring also has that tendency of outpacing due to outflow propagation

Yeah ...looks like they're so veracious in their hunger they've mistaken identity and are etching that decking and scab colored picnic tables for blood meals.

I was advertising this risk up our way ( SNE ) three days ago ... modest lapse rate, but bigger CAPE and right entrance/side-swipe jet fields. Seems to pan out but the general kinematic layout is/has repositioned in space and time favoring that evening arrival into your region of the M/A. - at the time I noted the D3 out of SPC as 'mrgnl' throughout, and surmised they'd goose to 'slght' as the time nears - a typical wait-and-see tact out of that office. Indeed, they have, but it's back toward PA and not up this way. D'oh Still, I see this potential as a possible nocturnal evolver going forward - quasi MCS checklist in place. Not 100% sold But, there are wind maxima running over/astride of a bit of a synoptic acceleration of thermal conveyor - present linear MCS stalls/robs theta-e in that arrival? Perhaps. Source is appears smeared away from the heat Advised region of IA-IN yesterday. This shows nicely in these recent NAM FOUS/grid values ( heh, I'm old school). It's still pushing impressive 28 and 29 C at 980 over BOS/LGA respectively today and tomorrow, with WSW non marine contamination, and 700 and 500 mb <60% RH typically flags open insolation .. may have to now-cast ceilings with spill-over near-by. If so, I suspect 2-meters slope to 32 C is attainable over metrowest(s) type regions, so that's the other aspect - sneaking albeit pedestrian heat wave lurks. But yes the 565 dm thickness argues TDs may in fact belated.

Heh... I think that's over amped in the runs. we'll see -

The DPs hurting - without them, the CAPE are low. Prior runs looked more theta-e loaded with the in-bursting heat. Today may creep to 84/49 type warmth. It appears there is a diffused warm boundary tomorrow morning and near 90 heat sweeps in, but the theta-e appears to lag until Sunday. Which by then the wind max/S/W, will have moved out leaving probably 91 with 65 to 70DP by Sunday at 5 pm with mainly sun/fair skies and lazily wobbling flags. SPC still has us in marginal however - In fact, MOS products continue to creep higher for Sun and Mon, now 88 at KFIT and 89 at KASH. This may turn out to be a low grade heat wave for BDL-FIT-ASH-MHT and BOS if the wind can stay more 230, because all sites should be 91 to 95 on Tuesday.

See the D5 GFS with the 540 dm thickness over Ontario ? wow It's 'symbolically' if perhaps suggestive/inferred in climate history, why the 4th of July weekend may be the hottest ever - hyperbolic speaking lol. Seriously though, this June 22nd through the 4th of July has carried some "smoldering" attributes in the lingering AAM mode, combined with ridging trying to re-anchor between California and HA. These separate telecons converge and point toward higher highs over eastern N/A. I have noticed many, many times in the past, these sort of odd anomalies (540 over Ontario is deep for June) get kissed within a month by either an equal or aggregate series that ends up leveling the numbers. 540 now, 600 then Yet, that 540 is happening while these base-line larger/super-synoptic 'tendencies' are not being realized in the operational runs. I'm waiting for a guidance cycle to burst through and throw up a bigger 5H anomaly E of 100W more obviously. Metaphor is rubber band being pulled taut. 00z Euro illustrates 594+ dm, SE of Cape Cod on D10. That is probably overdoing it, but in principle it is not a terrible idea given above. Operational GFS is the last model in the bevy of tools to look for that at extended leads due to its cumulative cooling tendency on the polar side of the westerlies,, out in time. It's always 3 to as much at 12 dm colder in the geopotential medium of the Ferrel latitude trough nodes and ambience by D10 it seems. It's a band sander always grinding, and just scalps heights from rising at mid latitudes like an irate Apache. By the way folks, sneaking hot days tomorrow thru Tuesday? Nothing major.. 88 to 91. I really wasn't paying too much attention. I took a closer look when the 00z NAM was in with 27 C at T1 ( 980 mb) over Logan by late Sat afternoon. With lower ceiling RH ( 700 and 500 mb levels), and solar max open insolation lasing to/thru the planetary boundary, a WSW wind, this will probably will bust machine ( MOS ) by a 1-3 F there. I suggest it could nick 90 at BDL/FIT/ASH and provided the BOS stays above 230 on the wind dial there too. I'm unsure on the DPs though. Seems they should be a lot higher than these MOS/blended MOS products are putting up. interesting - But the Euro has 18 to 20C 850s in a SW flow from PHL to BOS on Monday and Tues, with thickness in the mid 570s. Eigh -

00z NAM is like 91/72 at Logan 4pm Sat. I’m sure MOS’ll cap the DP at 66 but that’s not how that day’s type of fresh warm sector intrusion synopsis typically works. Hills out in the distance will be blue tinted.

I think if memory serves the forecasters of the era were not sure if that track would resolve that way - some of the guidance took it farther N before the right slope... That turn probably spared BOS-PVD from a real flogging - I had moved to Michigan for that autumn and winter to take care of grandfather's house as he wasn't doing too well. He did die a year later.. but I was there and miss Bob, but thankfully, also the awful winter that followed for y'all. But we had one storm in Michigan that whole winter, 8" of snow that smelled like rain at 33 F. So, it wasn't a good year in the Lakes either. I moved back the immediate following spring, and that was the year of the 1992 December storm - the 2nd best event of my life behind the Cleveland Superbomb. Not sure why I said all that... I guess it's chain-linked in memory.