Typhoon Tip

No that’s what it says it has 1.4 inches total liquid equivalent with two intervals at 1.1 liquid equivalent at or less than freezing at every sigma - well rats bid

Wait a minute I got to be reading this wrong

The Nam gives Logan 11 inches of snow with a profile less than freezing at all levels

You gotta be f’n kidding me

It's also trended S and narrowed the impact corridor... just sayn' -

Yeah...I was into those radio talk platforms through the beef years of the Patriot's dynasty ... It seems sport radio in/around the SNE market hit a kind of boon -time when the Patriots came into domination. Zolak and this guy "Gresh" ( I think...) and one or two other personalities were all part of the Patriot post game shows of the 2003 - 2011 era ...and I used to be driving with too much in me, listening in for gloating purposes on the way home from games... But my job scenario was shaky then, and I was not as much a commuter in the regular sense until later... That changed in 2010 and I got into Felger & Mazz... I lost my job again in 2012 and had them on as background sound at home, television for close to a year before I started commuting again. But got sick of it because as 'mreaves' also said, achy-eared over hearing the same outrage over and over. Sometimes I could swear they were replaying tapes from the first hour around hour 3, too - right down to tonal inflection it sounded like the same 'cast. 'why am I listening to this again' ... When I went back to work I didn't listen but sporadic post some big win or whatever... Working from home now during the Pandemic I haven't listened once. I know exactly what they are going to say post every win or loss to within tolerance of accuracy anyway - their M.O. doesn't really change - and who cares about league soap-opera shit over salaries and who got arrest for whatever

Impressive but ...you know, I know you know this but that's common at elevation. Spring snow wallops the 5000+ out there, then the atmosphere is both thinner and the sun angle higher, and together it's gonzo in mere days or less. I bet that parking area is gone entirely by tomorrow or mid day the next barring any new snow. I suspect something similar though much smaller in total scale happens here Saturday -

I'm tellin' ya man... just a matter of time and we'll get a 70 F legit ambient temperature over a snow pack -

I think I need every bit of that 10" here in Ayer to end the season 'normal' - or within reasonability of that distinction. I'd like that... so that a "normal" winter is officially "not good enough" for those in the area that have turned this pass-time into a life-defining codependency complex lol

mm ...i might pull the trigger on a low confidence Watch and sort of bold/highlight it as likely to go down to Advisory pending more cycles. OH wait heh...is this still 4th period even. Actually don't do anything I guess for now accept model ogle

Why ... it's not a snow pattern ...it's an 'ugly' pattern - as in unilateral ass pounding, all preferences failed. actually hyperbole aside it could be just giga motions in the ensembles. It's just that that seasonal lag thing is real - that part has been taking place where we get these obnoxious asynchronous cold patterns in April and May... I'm sort of getting gun shy and weary that the muzzle's always pointed out our springs because of that seemingly growing dependable oddity

Not really relevant to us I suppose but man ...TX to eastern OK could be raked off the face of the planet by cyclic EF5 swarms in that look on D6 to 7

hmm... didn't realize this was happening but the American telecon layout is looking increasingly shitty as of late. Hadn't been checkin' But, modestly positive PNA by D10 with NAO slipping negative among most members could really turn that pattern ugly at our latitude/ geographic climo after next week's warm up. - may just be the seasonal lag coming back to destroy orchard crops with snow flurries in May again and again as the new paradigm because CC is not happening ... weeeee.

This is why - really - I'm willing to wait on the Euro frankly .. I mean, as a baser deterministic forecasting philosophy - duh - we don't auto 86 any solution... It's a matter of gradation of inclusion to put some weird syllables to it .. Like, .01% ICON ...hahahaha Anyway, that agreement is giving this a kind of 'sneak up and bite' appeal to it..and though what I mentioned off the Euro is factually and empirically correct, it still is not 100% infallible - of course not. Hopefully, we get no agreement at any point leading

well we'll see - If the Euro arrives and there's some EPS movement too - ...watches go up.

That's very baroclinic

I honestly - and I'm not merely saying this because of personal druthers to sans winter at this time of year, either - don't trust anything that particular model does with it's stalking obsessive behavior with the N/stream and bias low heights anywhere on the N side of jet streams. It's coherently biased in that aspect - particularly egregious in spring... That model has done this, as far as I can tell, every spring season since it became 'G' 'F' and 'S' , where by the time it is out to the mid range+ it has slipped the thermal input that the season forces into the initialization and collapses back to January at least excuse imagined.

Yeah...that GFS run is DEFINITELY a heftier signal than an ANA profile... lol.. I don't know, the 00z Euro is inside of 4 days - despite any populous derision of it's skill it is still the best model out there in that range. I'd like to see the 12z because the 00z run was nuisance by comparison to the GFS for frozen. Actually, if it comes in as robust as the GFS ...it would be unusual for it to correct like that as it is ... Let's see what it does -

Lol, ...it's frolicking trollism there a little..sure, but oh my god with this - I mean, as far as wells running dry - uh, no. There are a ton of circumstantially mitigating factors. The geology where the well was dug, and the permeability of rock strata/ .. making accessing of aquifer supplies 'slow rate' or... low rate in general, because the surveyors either screwed up, or warned of a low yield return in that particular region, or both...and the builders went ahead with plans anyway. There's all that, and the amount of rain and whether the USGS D. survey has us in a regional folic color of desicating doom or not ... isn't really automatically meaningful and point to point circumstance. Plus, aquifer water is a longer term strata source ...deep and usually relates to decades, as well as abuses of use, combined. It's complex 'why' well runs dry... We hear of this happening to people even in comparatively wetter antecedent years, anyway. It's really just that - the lust and entertainment cycle of of a doomscrolling for entertainment culture that's come about from having accesses to 'too much information' that is by and large, interestingly ... nosed into by people sitting in the comfortability of their homes with provisions as they need while they warn. You know... kind a like the raging holier-than-thou Environmentalist blogger pounding away on his/her keyboard, impugning everything humanity does and stands for ... utilizing a total media-neurology that is essentially entirely made possible by exploiting the environment in order to bloviate. Heh...I guess in order to reach people we gotta be a hypocrite - I suppose it's a necessary evil in that sense.

Yea no one asked me but, I could not care any less - at a personal level - whether it snows a speck of dandruff at this point. The rain on the other hand? It won't shut up the stein heads that can't find any other doomscrolling to focus on so will blow the drought horn instead... no, but any rain at all helps stuff that much more sock in their pie-holes. At a personal level, I guess knowing with > 50% ... even > 70 ( I'd say ..) confidence that we are going substantively above normal Sunday until further notice ( hopefully until next November 15 in the latter sense), makes tolerating any cold spring regression event between now and then that much easier. But if it rains ...we need it. If snows, that's just Farmer's Gold -

I bet the ICON is too far NW... It's sort of bass-ackward way of looking at it, but it hasn't liked the Sunday balm either ...or the scale and degree of warm up at a continental scope for Sunday through next week all along. I noticed/suspected earlier in the season that it's BL handling on whole was questionable. It seems not do feedbacks .. introducing a host of secondary errors if those d(BLs) are not necessarily created and propagating along. Especially in spring that would be a problem with sun modulation of lower troposphere ... Which that Sunday onward is going to be a lesson in watching the models be like, '...oh, okay ..we have all these new therms to deal with now ...better expand...' ...It's not just MOS that tends to be too cool - synoptic warm ups tend to mature right up until go time from March onward - Anyway, I bet the ICON is not seeing the BL resistance with that high pressing S...

Course, the ICON ...lol, it either has NW bias, or is going to coup this to a warm scenario that ends as fake blue QPF that isn't verifying below 900 mb at all with that look. Actually has PF to Phinn' snowing ... It tries to flash to snow south but that is definitely fake in that set up.. I wonder if that's icing even for SW NH. Mm... haven't been personally impressed with this ICON model though so don't really use it much. Not sure how it does in this sort of look/set up

I just saw the NAM... It's a needle threader incarnate! caution on being optimistic or readily favoring that scenario because the NAM when it comes into the 60 to 84 hour ranges has a tendency to be NW ... owing to a tendency to be slightly too amplified - it's almost like what the global numerical ( Euro/GFS/GGEM) do at D7-10 , where they first scope these system in their distance frames like the moon coming over the eastern horizon - magnified and scary huge... lol. The NAM seems to do something similar then damps a bit coming into 48 < -- so forth. That is a narrow latitude there to begin with, so a 50 mile S correction of axis' and that rt 2 ends up down in CT... etc..

So.. for me, the nice take away on Thursday night into early Friday is the rain. It would be nice to put another 1.25" in the basin tills ... I'm not sure specifically what is offered here.. It may be .7" et... As far as snow...yeeeah. It's in there. I think the flash freeze is the interesting aspect, though.. At least, if we clear Friday afternoon and sun penetrates to Earth ...even if the temp holds around freezing at least the roads won't be too bad. As far as snow itself... that looks to me like an ANA lag back with cold wedging underneath doing the transition for this thing, more so than cyclonic dynamical feedbacks. Those tend to be over modeled. I won't call that a "red flag" but I'd cautionary yellow - I have seen countless cold insert end up with an evaporational slant deformation and steady on rad goes to virga. I think the critical aspect will be how soon does the advection aloft cut off ... the N/stream was hinting at more phasing yesterday, and we saw immediate positive returns in QPF ... but ultimately, the phasing is minimal and I don't personally see how it is going to get to be more, given to the surrounding hemisphere. It seems it may have maxed in guidance when taking that into consideration. The N/stream ultimately partially phases while the rest of the trough mass smears E and pancakes /cuts of the elevate advection and that is racing the wedge drying underneath. That's really taking a needle thread to an excruciatingly discrete level there... It may be a good system for meso modeling ...by virtue of their grid, they may have a better handling on timing the 1300 meter thickness collapse underneath that lag back seeding aloft -

Oh,... Euro has a 300 mb cloud problem - maybe that's part of it...didn't see that level on Monday ... but it's bone dry 500, 700 --> surface on west wind, through +7 c 850s so... if that 300 mb ceiling proves fake ...that 2-meter is going to be warmer than mid 60s throughout the SNE region... I'm not sure what the verification scores are at tedious sigma levels, tho.. Notice also it still frosts Sunday night - ... good mapling -