Typhoon Tip

Time sensy but it is interesting watching the upper cirrus deck fan off and expose the lower el CBs https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

The last time we headlined heat close to, or meeting that caliber, it was suppressed beneath the 40th parallel across the country back in the summer of 2012 I believe it was. That was the heat that broke with the huge Derecho, that roared from your neck of the woods to the Mid Atlantic. Otherwise, we have not headlined the heat like France/Spain and the front slope of the Urals, Australia, or that crazy heat in London recently that, relative to their climo, may have been above anything we've seen here. These other areas may simply be more prone do to other factors, geography, etc. Or, we are overdue to join the global warming party - lol. I mean the models predict these increasing frequencies with heat waves. It seems we are always putting up above normal temps here from Indiana to New England in recent decade, without it being trophy material - interesting.

My father was living in Kalamazoo Michigan in that era - southern tier of the state. It wasn't just Chicago - population density will tend to win that debate. But Indianapolis back to Springfield IL, up through Minn/Wisc and all over Ohio and the rest of Michigan took that one unrelenting for 5 days. He's extolled to me in the past, he did not see a bank thermometer ( remember they used to have those lol ) less than 107 F during three days of that, and no night fell below 84 F. He said it was routinely mid 90s by 10 am. I mean we have this sort of index finger rule around here, '90 by 9' if you wanna make a hundo. 'Nother one is '10 after 10' Both seem to work reasonably well for unadulterated heating. Imagine clearing these in principle by 7:55 in the morning. I've seen this before. It's almost like the atmosphere is so sensitively ready to take off that the temp starts rising with the daylight that precedes sun rays tipping over the dawn. You can actually see it, 6:12 am and the temp is up 2, etc It almost seemed that could not get hotter? It was as though it was parametrically situated to be hotter, but the sun and latitude simply couldn't find the radiative power to get the temp up any higher. Maybe. But bank thermometers - heh. Either way it was probably a buck-3, three days running anyway and probably more - The coup de gras? Dp was 76!

who in here was alive during the apocalypse Chicago summer of 1995 ? Tell me again, how this should not be rated as a natural/national disaster - " The 1995 Chicago heat wave led to 739 heat-related deaths in Chicago over a period of five days.[1] Most of the victims of the heat wave were elderly poor residents of the city, who could not afford air conditioning and did not open windows or sleep outside for fear of crime.[2] The heat wave also heavily impacted the wider Midwestern region, with additional deaths in both St. Louis, Missouri[3] and Milwaukee, Wisconsin.[4] " -c/o https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Chicago_heat_wave

By the way ...re the ridiculous alien banter - granted, it may just be 'banter' but no - this man echoes precisely what we've already discussed, in this social media, https://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2021/06/04/ufo-sightings-china-hakeem-oluseyi-intv-newday-vpx.cnn over the last couple of months. In my own words I wrote, the Military is merely admitting to UFO's ; the are not saying they are aliens. People tend to conflate those two aspects - which CNN knew all along ( digressing here..), and now that they have made their profits off leveraging that 'social engineering' tactically, they are suddenly willing to surface these interviews.

Yeah.. neglected/forgot/didn't see the urgency in following up on this one, heh. I originally idealized a marginal sort of interest for yesterday - but yesterday turned out toxic to lift with a diffused warm boundary offering ample CIN at 700 mb, while the underbelly couldn't get much sun to cook the earth. More DP today though, an we're splashing sun - we'll see. I just want crispy edge towers to gawk at - not asking for much. Part of the issue is the whole atmosphere is also gradually being offset by a rising heights in every direction, as the super synoptic ridge signal begins GWO-ing through the hemisphere.

(Media + profit)/2 = no truth... ...ever I'm just agreeing with you in blunt format here. I mused a while ago, well months and months ago, and probably years ago before that, too: the day that the IMC ( "Industrial Media Complex" ) figured out how to turn thumb swipes, mouse clicks, and T.V. channel pings, into economic motion, we've been living in a re-imagined universe You know, there is no burning bush or booming voice from the sky instructing anything we do. It is all contrived - period. Folks in general, the vast, vast majority, don't really understand that, and that reality exists actually outside the cinema of humanity- a theme that is self-chosen and executed. all of it. Geologic and extra-terrestrial threats ( no not aliens, god forbid! but like super volcanoes, solar storms and comet impacts - ), these events do not happen - typically - in the scales of a single life time. This world really is a utopian oasis against a proven, observable firmament festooned with hostile worlds and calamities. But we turn on the news, an invention created entirely by humanity, and of course it is this steady diet of unavoidable thumb swipes, mouse clicks or TV channel changing, or you'll be soooorrrrry lol The funny irony about that geological shit is ... humanity is a geological force now, one that IS, regardless of any belief, quantifiable and reproducible in science. Yet, the aspects observed in the environment and reproduced in intellect and experiment, that evince humanity's actual connection to the physical universe, those get denied. Those are ones that really do present the existential threats ( not just to us but is triggering a mass- extinction etc etc), and we stand around staring nonplussed when not outright denying.

Saturday, in the overnight NAM run went considerably warm(er) at New York and Boston ... Short rendition: - this looks like a 94 F, 21 Z temp at those locations as near as tomorrow, which accordingly means the abutting metro districts are rotisserie hotdogs. In fact, this is probably true out across the expanses of any mall towns out in the burbs of the coastal plain, too. There is ventilation, at least, as we see there > 15 kt wind at all intervals - so perhaps the DPs mix from 72 to 64 throughout the day ( or whatever the sounding allows.). Then it is unabated heat and plausible that machine guidance will slip beneath local 2-meter out through Tuesday thereafter. I could see this maxing in the upper 90s Mon or Tues, preferably NNE/BTV... but it's too close to count out NY and Boston. Longer rendition: These are 06z FOUS numbers for KBOS and KLGA for Saturday: 36000575044 -2198 082219 72 27 20 13 36000535037 -0597 112415 72 28 22 13 42000616447 -2394 082416 74 28 21 13 42000494939 01197 122518 73 29 22 14 48000434646 00500 102719 71 26 21 14 48000555023 00999 142618 71 25 22 14 Those bold numbers are the temperatures at the 980, 900 and 800 mb levels, from left to right. That 980 is well above the lowest sloped region of the sounding, where the 2-meter temperatures is approached sort of asymptotically; typical rule of thumb, at the end of that slope adds almost nothing at night, 3 to 5 C by sunnier day, to the lowest value. Example, 28 and 4 obviously = 32 C, or~ 90F (89.6), if the day's got good heating. ~92 down NYC. But* the wind in this product is trying to bend into the west late in the afternoon and into the early evening hours. This almost implies there could be late highs registered at these locations, between 5 and 6 pm. Also, the RH values also present in these FOUS numbers, implicating open sky with > 95% insolation bath; these 'rough' fixes for the 2-meter may need more like 5 C or even a 6 to account for urban concrete and street/'island' feed-backs. Saturday night is brutal in the urban centers and three-story packed neighborhoods that have lower income access ability to ventilation and cooling ( to be imaginatively specific... yikes!), may need circumstantial heat headlines. But 26 C, at 980 mb, at 2 am at Logan - that's probably the coveted 80 F low there. 78 anyway This heat wave ( which I do believe we will verify) is coming in sooner than we had originally seen modeled. This was always going to be a Monday through Wednesday ordeal, with the end week negotiable as a BD this and that began showing up. But now it appears the ballast of this heat may be centered on Monday and Tuesday, with the preceding Saturday and Sunday involved in it. Wednesday's heat nuts may get clipped - but, I'm also wondering if that pattern out there is still not settled. The Euro looks overly amplifying on that day, and in an odd twist, the 00z GFS is actually delaying the front on Wednesday to more like Wednesday evening, and with lingering mid level quasi EML probably keeping the sig ceilings sparse ..that would include Wednesday too. I think it is possible that we lose the BD aspect in future guidance layouts, and see this morph into a standard westerlies erosion of the heat event. We'll see. In fact, in a stricter sense of it, the Euro is not a backdoor front on this 00z run. It's governing mid level support is coming down at a rather steep angle in the 00z run - granted - but the attending surface front is actually just advecting SE as a normal kick.

Man Saturday lows may not get below 80 in the urban centers

The funny thing about the time travel Paradox is that there really is no paradox – that’s always just been something of myth that was easily sold and everybody in sci-fi bought into it and all these authors don’t even have it right. Quantum mechanics proves you cannot change the future by going back in time even if you change something in the past because of the uncertainty principle

77/66 here max but we had 50/50 sun

12z NAM solution roasts Saturday ...

Fwiw ( or not..) that seasonal guess work has it above normal this year.

Looks like NCEP remains undeterred wrt to heat "Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 255 PM EDT Thu Jun 03 2021 Valid 12Z Sun Jun 06 2021 - 12Z Thu Jun 10 2021 ...Record Heat Threat from the Northern Plains to the Northeast...." "...Extreme temperature anomalies are likely from parts of the Great Basin/northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes and Northeast. Highs and/or morning lows may reach up to 15-20+F above normal. Especially across parts of the Northeast next week, these values may exceed daily records for highs and warm lows."

Heh... It may back off on the deep layer re-organization it's doing at D6 up there, and there'd still be enough for BD genesis. It wobbles the vortex around n-e of JB for days, and like clock work dependability, right around D6, it just up and punches the thing SE toward the Maritime. I see it do that all the time, and it has to back off. But, I think in this case the flow is breaking down then - it's just a matter of how much. Heh, it's like 1/3 those mechanics could still deliver 28 kts of dead sailors spirit/strata shreds and 52 F air coming into NE zones by mid day, Wednesday anyway

I remember this book I had when I was a kid. "The American Weather Almanac" I think - for some reason I forgot the title. It was gray in color, front and back. And it was thick. It covered all the majors: blizzards, tornadoes, floods, hurricanes, and lightning, their explanations and patterns - it was written in 'adult language' tho. Anyway, recall reading about the Labor Day Hurricane that strafed along the Florida Keys in 1935. Category 5 with 180 mph winds, with era construction ...must have been interesting. I remember one specific passage in that anecdotal accounts section of that event, reading about how as the eye came over, the water in the toilets started flowing back out, because the pressure was so low that it was being sucked out - Now, I don't know if that was true, but the text was written "...Presumably because..." and it was anecdotal. I have heard of things like that, tho, elsewhere.

- at this extended range it's more likely the model's just happy about the numerical instability intrinsic to a favorable pattern - eye candy for now.

While on the subject, the operation GFS is 200+ hours out with an impressive TS riding up the western Bahamas ...in case no one has noticed. I mean the model run at a hemispheric scope and scale still does it's usual job of finding a way to make it October by D10 like it does every run - for whatever reason. But in so far as just that tropics, yeah..it's been lurking in the ensemble means. The thing is, the Euro cluster has never been very "prone" to triggering the tropics. Not sure if that is inherently a better performing instrument there, but it's definitely tending to development at lower frequency in recent seasons.

I don't really recall those discrete plot elements anymore lol, wow - Concepts yes. But yeah, I later read a separate thing about the creation of that book. They spent a lot of time in multiple disciplines, primarily physics, celestial mechanics/astro-physics and sociology research, and tried to create aspects in the story the exposed each. The sociological aspect is what stuck out to me the most ( speaking just from orbit - no pun intended). Once the break-down of civility threshold was breached, they did a marvelous job describing how quickly disorder would tsunamis just as fast as the gravity waves off the impact. And what happened in the aftermath within months, ~ 1/3 of the survivors eventually re-coalesced into some form of primitive society structure, with rudimentary laws and so forth. While the other 1/3s were comprised of either Mad Maxian dystopian shit... rape and pillage gangs and tribal marauders, primal scary 'what humans are capable of monster' stuff. The other 1/3rd were isolationists and/or sort of xenophobic, peppered about the outlands and fully willing to blow your head clean off your shoulders if they merely see you coming. I should re-read the book but life and my own pursuits makes a 2500 page leisure read a bit of tough one -ha.

we'll never get a definitive until such time as it will not destablize China's relationship with the West, any further. I wrote a rant about this many pages ago - blah blah Same reason why the JFK investigation/probe pretty much halted at the doorstop of the KGB - uh oh. If they'd connected that up the latter deeper into the sovereign institution, then it becomes a Clausewitzian -scale aspect; one that neither side needs to incinerate the world over lol, just my half cynical hot-take... But, still, I -personally - believe that NSA to Pentagon intelligence really already know precisely who the f*ck it was that left the back door open, too -

Andrew, '92 devastated the southern burrows of Miami/Dade County tho. Also, Charley and Frances on the west coast of the Penn. wrought havoc to Cat 4...so I don't know - I think getting down to Broward and Palm Beach discrete level is just getting more difficult for trying to hit a bullseye - their being missed in 5 decades may not be that usual at that scope and scale. Florida as a "regional" scope is doing just fine. 2004 was a bad year there... And other years, like Wilma ...at least got them action. I'm not sure what the return rate of > Cat 3 hurricanes are down to discrete scales, tho. Maybe Palm Beach is supposed to be denuded off the face of the planet regularly every 30 years and they are over do to be erased - lol

Some of those individual 00Z members of the GEF carrying on with potent hurricane Gulf to Bahamas out in la-la 300+

mmm I dunno - I've lived too long in this butt canal cursed region of the planet for that. That ' not a very strong signal' typically means clearing your calendar for a mandatory shut out event that steals 2.5 days of fisting march back into this region. That was why the previous guidance was more encouraging. The escape trajectories off the continent were more progressive out there next week. Now it's all scaffolding a NW ablation ...okay we'll see.

I read that book back in 1991 ...wow, memories. You should try "Lucifer's Hammer" by the same authors. Typical of their corroboration, their works are volumetric opuses. Proooobably not well suited for present day Twitospheric population of convenience addled "sharp wits". As a typical story novel may be written, where one may engage with a plot piggybacking subplots? Theirs tend multiple concurrent thematic arcs, each toting its own subsidiary popsicle headache labyrinths that really need the 1800 to 2500 hundo pages to get worked out. If one still seeks the old school method of escape, 2500 pages 'ill certainly provide a nice three week diversion at 1 to 2 hours a night. One aspect I like about their science fiction is that it is based upon actual real science; providing a real "sciency" platform to visualize, re-imagine, implicate consequence makes it more compelling. I mean, it is more on the science side of the "Science Fiction& Fantasy" literary genre. I like fantasy - but swinging light sabers and moving objects with one's mind should not be couched together with suturing carbon nanotubes as anatomical analogs to mimic real biological mircotubules behavior, and emerges not just A.I. ., A.A., artificial awareness. See one has plausibility -one does not. Those authors are more hard core science in the fictional process. Well, Footfall is a bit of stretch, okay. But is still vastly more plausible than Jedi's. Lucifer's Hammer is straight up likely to happen some day - it's one of those just a matter of timers.

More quantifiable .. the EPS mean is bunching the geopotential height anomaly more W now. It is opting for more meridian flow around the circumvallate of it, too - which is not good for the longevity, nor the areal layout of impact ( or 'good' depending on what one wants). The previous guidance means were more longitude, with 590+ heights nearly squarely located on climate for delivery here. These recent, however subtle trends, are not as impressive in either of those X or Y coordinate attributes. - also this Maritime cold air jet thing up there is bullying into model cycles, too. I will say that the GEFs -derived NAO and PNA don't support that as much. Not sure what the EPS derivatives do, but since they tend to always just mimic the operational there's no point in even paying for them.