Typhoon Tip

Day's a dud for records .. ? It'll make good on warmer than normal - of course - but this cloud contamination will cap that potential the longer it continues more prevalent than modeled. Or is that that case - modeling? I remember seeing the 700mb and 500mb RH as being < 50% in the Euro a few days ago... At that same 300mb ...way the f up there where it really 'shouldn't' be an issue, was 70+ ... I figured it was being too cute - well here we are... I've noticed this too, to go along with a growing numbers of nuanced changes and tendencies of observed weather over the years... Warm sectors are becoming more like this with milk dud upper levels ... Mutes heat potential. I wonder if that's part of the ambient increase in WV quota - interesting. This is like that day in mid July that has a shot at 100 and it's in the forecast, ...but the this pall at 20K feet seems to emerge in just enough to keep in 97.2 ... Only today we shy records by decimals because of this ... which seems like it shows up just for that purpose lol...

San Francisco can't hold a candle to the sore butting of spring in New "corn-holed" England ... basically from Friday afternoon until Hades freezes over. Hyperbole of course.. I was in 'Frisco last June ..during the early days of the Pandemic... heh. I can tell you other than the fact that there are nude middle aged dudes walking down Market Street with their noodles and beads just flopping around under barrel bellies in broad daylight ( because of some weird inner city cult thing... that is constitutionally protected), it's a remarkable aesthetic geology that resides under a mash up with urban terrain. I mean ... the hills are famed, right - The wind blew at 20 kts unrelenting from the WNW... channeling through the inlet where the GGB spans the Muir hills to the Frisco side of the Bay. There's some remarkable vistas up in those hikes ... And the Bay was often white capped with wavelets ripping toward the east. Wet-suited acrobatic sailors on their wind-surf boards were fun to halt and watch at times, while folks in masks walked the causeway of the Marina district by and by. The air T was 67 there ... ranging 72 down town typically. SO, a bit annoying with constant wind ...sure. But down town is bit protected ...and some of the commons were rather napey most of the time because they were out of the breeze. I suppose when Sam made his famous observation, they didn't have the concrete jungle in place to offer as much refuge from the wind I suppose. New England is not that charming though, at any point in the Spring - sorry... subjective or not, it's not.. nope. Heh, I know - maybe we just need more nude people walking around here in broad daylight next to other pedestrians who seem oblivious to strange "turkey" and balls... Interesting there's no woman part of the cult. What a f'n weird place. But I guess ...I wasn't there in "Fogaust" ... I guess August is the shrouded hills and mank month that earned that destination its honor. Mm, maybe - but that sounds like April incarnate almost dependably every year, here, just the same.

Seems to me ... the idea of this warm up receding back to climo is really still the course of least regret for anticipating the rest of the month ... - this 12z Euro is banally uninspired typology of why it should be paramount for all citizens of the U.S. that live E of Chicago and N. of about PHL, to stash enough independent wealth to leave and not come back until circa May 1 - end date negotiable, too. Go anywhere in the world, but leave this piece of shit climate where it is almost as annoying listening to "at least hold on to snow hope" rationalized garbage - to the dumpster fire that is this putrid region of the world. That run is classically spring New England nothing redeemable - absolute zero usefulness, piece of shit weather ... Now, the upshot of that is that it's like the antithesis of the D9 Euro bomb? - it's a perfectly bad solution, which by virtue of such long lead ...it must also be doomed to fail and not actually happen. Any D6-10 perfect dogshit must by convention run through the same uncertainty milling ... something a little more enjoyable is the only room for any correction at all. So... we'll see..

And now deep thoughts with Jack Handy -

I'm getting increasingly worried(hopeful) as a spring enthusiast(winter enthusiast) that we will pay a dear price for this warm impertinence this week. I mentioned this in a post a while ago ...sometimes these early warm ups preceded a -NAO pulse in past springs. I wonder where we are 8 days from now. For one, on top of the Equinox so... we'll be dealing with the diabatic mutilation of the hemisphere but... seeing as we've had blizzards with actual blowing snow as late as April, it would be unwise getting lost in a warm week ( anyway..) on March 9, but particularly because there is that tendency to do that with the NAOs and drive cold here while the rest of the planet regales in the crapulence of a global warming spring while we watch... It's not a forcecast - it's a early idea ... I'd like to see the EPS over the next several days ... But what are we going to do with all this early heat when the r-waves roll out? It could plume it's way up at to higher latitudes, at upper levels, and dump you know where. That's what that is.. I am in full on spring mode so... this hurts me more than you think. But I have to be objective as much as I can. So many of these early warmth springs in the last 6 years have screwed later ... Maybe La Nina protects us where it failed to show in the winter... Course, there is that deviant in my that wouldn't mind getting getting a blue bomb and taking everyone higher than seasonal normal snow fall by one single inch, while ruining all their gardens and melting off the next day - that would be my revenge haha.. j/k

mm, I wonder if the model might even get bumped up in those ratings based upon his 'refined' metrical analysis -

Just think... without humanity ...money doesn't exist - Ever consider that, just how much of a delusion it really is? It's a social construct that assigns value based purely upon perception - perception goes away... money has no meaning. That philosophical truism has always interested me.. Yet, it is purported that people have "tried their hand at aeronautics from the perch of their elevated office windows" over money - So what does that say about their value system - hm

Don't buy it ... That -30 plume emerges from the ether ...there's no real antecedent synoptics - probably an artifact of it's overly conserved curvature it tends to formulate going from D4.5 to 6 as a general rule, which it then ... well, good luck getting that on a D4 map

classic spring condition.. NWS sites are hung up at 54. Meanwhile, everyone is 61 over their back patios, driveways, and/or car dashboards when running out to the store... I don't doubt the accuracy of the ultra normalizing tech of NWS but it isn't accurate for the "nook settings" were people live. I mean, it's almost like those technologies remove the actual skin-contact temperature, which is an ultra microphysics thing..., in order to find out what the kinetic temperature is of the ambient air ... Heh, it would make it both correct and false at the same time. It's almost as dumb as Logan reporting "for Boston" in early summer when the flags are wobbling from the ENE out there while it's sweltering on the Commons.

Agreed ... I was brandishing this as 'not' in that sense, because - I guess - AFD's were trying to turn the fan up on this afternoon. But it's just not that windy here. Light breeze... this is like a 9.7 on the NAPE scale - in fact, it's really almost too mild to be nape. It's just f'n insane out there. I wish I didn't clock a 10K on the 'mill at the gym last night and saved for today. Course there's tomorrow. It's interesting that we should be good to go through Friday's misty cloud advances. Also, anyone notice just how rudely obtrusive and potent that cold shot is over the weekend?

Amazing the changes felt the instant we stem the flow out of Canada -

I personally am not sold that any 'apparent' cooling should be readily attributed to La Nina. We just experienced a robust sudden stratospheric warming event, that was also preceded by a separate ... ongoing negative Arctic Oscillation. The combination of those observed the AO to very deep standard deviations via different causal circuitry, which lasted through the vast majority times of the DJF period. The -AO is in fact inconsistent with La Nina longer termed climatology, which shows a moderate negative correlation coefficient relationship. That tends to argue the AO may be more the culprit - which incidentally... IS very consistent with solar minimum. I don't personally suspect the La Nina did much to the hemisphere, to be blunt. We out here in the every day Meteorological community have mused to frustration and humor and back, just how UN La Nina -like the hemispheric base state circulation maintained throughout. Having said that... It'll be interesting what those statistics look like as we press through the summer. The AO is vanquished... there could be a bounce-back as these mid latitudes lose the -AO conveyor. Also, not intending to discount the La Nina entirely ( equally foolish...), my impression is that mid latitudes of the N. Hemisphere ( to wit, has larger tracts of land-atmospheric coupling/ thermal regulation in the global heat budget ) ...those regions tend to dry out more so in La Nina; this would concomitantly favor temperature resulting warmer than than their 30-year climate averages ... In that sense, we could see this coupling into a correction of sorts. In short, these first 3 ... 5 months of the year may be the artifact of the AO cooling, but, the hemisphere has yet to realize the typical La Nina warmer than normal late spring and summer just yet. It may neutralize some of that "cooling" in the net from both AO relaxation(seasonal), and thus "allowing" ( in a sense ...) the La Nina climate to re-assert itself. As an aside: Also, climate is a meandering course. It doen't really slide straight up or down along epoch gradations like we see in neat orderly rendering for publications and so forth. Obviously we're savvy enough in here to know this "serrated" nature of rise and fall, then extended yet further along longer rise and fall derivatives... that are in turn also situated along longer ones that define vast distances of time... blah blah... This could be a 'down' motion in a slope that really won't deviate - no one in present company suggested otherwise, but... - from the longer term warming. I can see 'deniers' pouncing on least excuse imagined with this sort of observed behavior in the environment.

Lens interpretation ? haha... just bustin' balls a little but, that is the "Control" run that 'subjectively' tanks there... The mean (green), which by convention is more deterministic ... is not very convincing. Control runs to me are dubious? ... I admit to some ignorance as to their uses... but, those don't 'sound' like they use organic grid/initializations ( or necessarily static geophysics for that matter) to process for/in the virtual sense of projecting weather patterns. It sounds like a parameterize-able wet dream, versions for experimental destruction of man kind under the espouses of research for lab dork purposes... Which makes it utterly useless to deterministic everyday use, as it is allowing "what if" scenarios that are not in existence - necessarily. But boy I'll tell you... can you imagine "George001" setting his coffee down and rolling up his sleeves at the console of that "control" ?? Jesus, we'd have a high confidence comet impact scenario in no time.

Not sure what the recent pages of consist of but I am not buying the 00z suite ... Has anyone noticed that the models keep sloshing between seasons, 00z and 12z ? strikes me as though...I wouldn't be shocked if the 12s ...if not 12, 00z or 12z tomorrow etc, just yaw back toward a warmer appeals again.

Same here... Fields and yards are now exposed around my region of Mass... Just shard, melt-back mangled banks remain... Parking lots have homeless already sifting through the snow pile rubble leavings .. heh. Kidding but did I see that behavior once driving by some urban blight once and it stuck in my memory. It's really a completely different universe out side to that 8 day consistent tundral drain pattern we just endured. Shut that f'n faucet off already!! Ugh... and immediately, booinnng, .... we're over 50 ...yesterday was 39 here... We have, as of 10 to 10:30 am already reached recent MOS coverage high expectations around the region. It's 49 to 54 so yeah Sometimes 11 F of difference is really 50 degrees ....now is one of those times. Ha. Steroidal nape range in full affect - Anyway, the open fields may assist in busting MOS over the next couple of days -

My dream winter snows like crying hades from a week before thanks gig until about Feb 4 over - ... 70+ and geek flooding ... swing set islets

.... I think it's like you moved to great location for big winters ...*but* did so at the tail end of climate destruction's moving winters N ... probably you got Kevin's bald headed winter tendencies at that that latitude ... maybe 10 years. By then Kevin'll be DC'ing it. Then... the tipping point probably starts causing world wars over dwindling resources anyway and who'll have time to care - ... trope dystopian but pick one...

Jerry - you leaped into a conversation and didn't - clearly - know the history. It has nothing to do with you and your atlas ...

Won't be "nice" out though ...not with those numbers. 55 with 25 mph wind is big f.u. ...

Yeah I went to college at UML down here in the Merr. Valley... It was always April thru Mother's Day ...right in those three weeks...sometimes front, sometimes aft. But March is too soon for the Merrimack spring response per my experiences back then. I had to stop off and see the Mother's day flood in 2006 - incredible... Seeing the water move across the Pawtucket dam without barely an elevation change was eerie knowing what that normally should look like. Saco though... I canoed that with some college buddies a few years ago ... 2016, August. The water was really low. ... one or two points we had to exit boat and drag. I didn't think of that as main stemmer but we were also up near Fryeburg ...

heh... it's hand throwing frustration - happens every year around the last week of February when indices and operational runs do this.. that said, I do see what you meant earlier with 'warm' ish guidance. the gefs and eps raising eastern heights d-9 but like i said a while ago, folks should be on their toes through easter as a dope slap requirement

Mm .. I think the coastal plain of Maine where the deep layer vector is exiting ENE is pretty well situated to go above machine - just sayn' Not sure where you are ... but a WSW wind under 850 mb tapping +10 C nosing over central NE in the Euro ... comes d-slope across that area . I wonder ...does that send rivers like the Saco over their seasonal over-flow plains ... Probably gets the Merrimack triggered come to think of it... We'll see -

True .. but, from a psycho-babble perspective... If that happened, no one would give ratz azz if it was 70 a few times in March - just sayn' That's all that matters in here kid - ... people, and their drug. LOL

There is some precedence for that... Sometimes these early continental warm plumes will roll-out ...and end up there in a -NAO episode. The warmth transports up at mid and higher latitudes and then you get a transient blocking. I don't know about this year though - seems with La Nina footprint and fast flow lingering ... those may sort of 'ablate' that tendency too..

Hey so... I admit - I don't think I was a part of the 'Stein' origin - what does that mean exactly ?