Typhoon Tip

I mean picture the scene... The bald 7-year old with watery lenses, glances up through her iniquitous eyes to set them upon that vista you provided, an escape ...if just for a moment, for a world where freedom is always proven just a mirage on an bleak, uncertain horizon. In that moment, you brought the heaven she's desperately hoping she may one day decide when it is time. "Karen Fowler?" breaks the moment of serenity. As her father, holding back his own tears, "Are you ready lollypop - let's go get better." "Alright," she suserrates as she fiddles with her blanky. And as her father leads her in hand to that terrifying door, she looks over her shoulder one last time, and dreams. See, you could have been the deliverance - that gift from God. But, nah ...these are just daily views. Lol

I wonder if we might see an Invest S of the CV's off Africa. That's got cyclonic broad rotation with cloud tops blowin a hole clear to the mesosphere. I think the Euro ensembles were tracking a TW. SAL is min and SST/OHC are above normal - what's new since 1998 .. and SAL appears minimal. It's unusually early for Verdi but again ...I've been hammering that 1955 climate doesn't apply now, so any inference in that regard is on shakier presumptive application to put it nicely. We'll see - Also, that TUTT ESE of Bermuda seems to be trying to bore its way down lower. Convection generating closer to core-centered. It seems - however - that TPC doesn't Invest unless the models have some percentage of a visibility on the feature in question. So, perhaps not on either of these until such time as the model-reliance sends a memo to upgrade.

LOL, I like how that bar-graph up top offers up the lightest most ineffectual cooling wind velocity, precisely during those hottest days.

- the 00z operational Euro has 18C with pocketed and plumes to 20C dappled within the chart, in a thermal layout at 850mb, smeared in a continental conveyor from Pittsburgh to the waters S of NS by 8 pm on that day. The potential for that day is to outpace the machine guidance/interpretation tech. However, the dice roll is in the ceiling/cloud expanse. Though the air mass supports a hot day, it seems the model is bucking for more 700, 500 and 300 mb RH which lends to expectation for clouds and capping temp surely follows. Not sure though. We have a climate precedence in the area for when SW deep layer flows setup, to be bust the cloudier guidance as having been too much so - this could be one of those scenarios. If so, the temperature part of the T and TD total pig bum may end up with bigger cheeks. That said, the DP is higher than previous guidance as well, with 65 to 70 already throughout the area. So even if the temp does hold up at 84 to 86 ( which again...I have climo/modeling doubts given the synopsis ), that's what your traipsing around in out among the fairways ... that, and innumerate deer and horse flies doing mobius loops around your head and nape, while occasional sweat beads, cresting your brows, sting your eyes into blinking or shutting altogether right on your backstroke. I'd be back at the club bar in A.C. and beer, asking them how it went when their soaked shirted frames piled back in myself.

Dude, you are sitting a fortune of marketable photographs without even havin' to Ansel Adams pimp 'em out or dark-room trick. Most smart phone tech these days can do that shit anyway... But, this can be framed and sold - easily and successfully - for VT versions of the bodega, or mom-and-pop shops down the cobblestone thoroughfares of New England charm. You know, at those tourist-fly-in-amber stores and cafes, those hapless targets coming to experience New England splendor. But whatever, with the web you could set up a domain and swag it that way - tellin' you dude. Imagine that photo on September 30th, when the shrubbery and foreground floor foliage one could swear there is wild fire because God took a loaded brush of radiative reds and saffron heat and lashed it several times back and forth against that canvas of pine. Same sky ? Man, you'd be outfitting home offices and business lobbies. I could totally see this as a wall-matte in Doctor's office waiting room for example, where people are going for their 5th session of Chemo and could use the peaceful serenity to think of a happy place.

Oh shit - just please don't be like that dweeb in Tolland - we should introduce you to him because this characterization you make of yourself is so strikingly similar to one of the craziest assonistic sumnabishes ever to lurk the WWW ... pretty much is so deplorable most have to say three hail-Mary's just to cleanse their soul for having thought of 'im

... mm, for Logan? Imho, that may be more possible at that location - even considering/likeliness that they need some instrumentation tuning. If the wind happens to balance more offshore in a given June: The air source of sun-bathed land mass, vs the huge thermal sink of Cape Cod Bay/Labradorian termination waters, means a bigger variation against climate - bigger depending on wind direction for that location versus say Hartford - that would occur actually at any oceanic facing shore point. Just sayn' not that you don't know this shit

Can someone explain to me why 'ECMWF Hi-Res' version on Pivotal has to mean the worse f'ing model solution that even an invalid knows has no hope of verifying -

Again ..depends on the guidance details in hand. NAM ext tries to use drag coefficient/friction in a light wind to stagnate the warm air from getting in until Monday... But the Euro has +16.5 at 850 mb with DPs over 65, amid parallel isobars/SW flow ...smooth and laminar, so the NAM wouldn't fit that. In fact, it has < 70% RH at ceiling heights, so if depending where you're teeing off, if it is NW of a PVD-Logan rough axis you're probably looking at 92/65 at apex T... That would probably send the HI to 98 on Sunday ... Euro is a four-day heat wave. GFS not as oppressive on Sunday but still puts up 88/62 ... everybody swelters Monday in either rendition -

Yeah.... 'cause a heat index of a 135 is way worse than 112 - lol.. oy

lol, Scott beat me by 5 minutes! Yeah, the GFS and GGEM are doing their usual dirt in the gear-oil figuring out ways to offset - dunno. Heat is the most fragile of all impactors in weather. But the HI on the Euro is 103 for downtown Worcester ( below the airport duh - ), up to MHT

I dunno about its deterministic value but the Euro's 12z has 96/66 .. 70 in the point and click floater, Mon Tue and Wed this immediate next week, hovering over metrowest of Boston up to MHT

yesterday's cold front limped through and finally gets paralysis between Hatteras and Bermuda ...Soon it begins to retrograde W-N as a warm front, while going through frontalysis - it's remnant structure diffuses thru during the day on Friday. The MA to NE, east of Appalachia transitions into subtropical balm for the weekend. There should be rain in that transitioning window of time. How much or how little.. Then on Saturday, has to do with convective sensitivity in tropical air. But, these types of laminar stream-line Bahamian conveyors can sometimes set up training albeit narrow repeating CB conduits. Heights rise from an unusual direction. It's interesting that this has been prevalent in the Euro and GFS and their ensemble means for four or five days worth of cycles, during the Sun thru mid next week time span. Get's harder to knock that consistency as mere noise. It's an odd behavior, frankly - some variant of Bermuda/WAR ( north of normal spatial layout) retrogrades west from the Atlantic but doing so such that Bermuda its self is below the ridge space. I don't trust anything the models are depicting after D6 in this scenario/guidance layout, because the whole thing of it is so highly unusual with that +6 SD 850 mb plume under non-hydrostatic heights so high they must be tickling the moon's ball hairs over lower British Columbia and the northern Rockies ... yet negative 850 mb temperatures suddenly over PHX-LAX ... The 00z runs seems to be spraying continuity turds into the fan.

Saturday entry is possible ... but it may be an 87/76 steam bath at first sunday looks impressive in recent Euro runs with 93/74 type look

Oh m g at the 12z Euro. it's almost comically hot - I mean, jesus. D4 to 10 is interminably unending, everywhere, along and S of the 50th parallel across North America, thru D10 and seemingly beyond ... I'm actually toasting my bun visions over the western grill at that look. I think coastal locations have been dodging the acetylene torch. Modest yet critical shallow marine climo flow won that battle on this last week's headline event, but this appears now to be a seasonal problem - I think Weatherwiz was wondering about that a while ago? Anyway, that heat this next week is precarious yet again, and every bit as extremes. In fact, it is further N to include more the whole west if anything. Plus, the deep layer non-geostrophic heights/ridging being also slightly N of climo is setting up a weirdly easterly - albeit light flow, still easterly - anomaly underneath the ridge node toward La and Frisco. I can't imagine if that were ever enough to take that Central Valley air mass and send over the coastal ranges down into those urban areas. Bay Area canal winds might collapse and my f god they'd just up and spontaneously combust if that happened. I don't think it ever has quite that way - I'm a reasonably talented Sci Fi author - lol... seriously though, it seems just looking at these charts and means like the synoptics are trying for something extraordinary. Not that the heat the rest of the area has experienced isn't already, but it looks like the mechanism that keep the cool pacific boundary layer ventilation moving in so that civility can even exist there ... could be at risk of shutting down or even reversing in that D5-9 window.

you may be west of the gully stream steet flooder rain axis - But, the radar has an ANA look to it, with light to moderate shreds from PHL up to southern NH and ... well, I guess it's just not a softball game and hot dog at the park type of evening

kinda interesting. There a cluster of general sheet lighting and embedded downpours in moderate rain over eastern CT and eastern L.I. and Sound that's training up behind those cells. SE Mass may end up with a water surplus- haha.

Because my life has so much functional purpose and deeply transcendent meaning ... Synopsis of A "Bahama Blue" Pattern, By Jack Handy

Yeah...maybe Martha's Vineyard can get a tornado ... bein' it's far more intuitively plausible that location would over anywhere on the mainland of New England Seems like the last 3 years has been a weird Cape Cod/Island micro-alley

Tomorrow's a gem... lingers some the next day.. then, 'don't get use to it' cliche hugely apropos. Euro and EPS mean/blend ( but admittedly the oper. version is maybe 10% more amplified as is typically a flat error potential ) essentially illustrate 6 straight days of 74 to 94 up your way ( 74 being Mt bird poop and 94 in the valleys' ) with 60 to 76 DP until the end of the run. The GFS, while eager as usual to break it down/start to by D8.5...does have 3 days of it too. Heat wave's a -brewin' How big it gets probably is shadowed by Oregon to N. California's melting off the face of the Earth headline that seems inescapable in the guidance too. I just wonder if this is going to go down as some kind of hottest summer ever. I mean, June at the climo sights down here ... assuming a Euro solution, appear destined to end +5 .. +7 ... That's a huuuge number for a solar max month frankly. I mean, it's easier to rack up that kind of numeric in February, because the stasis has more room in the upward direction - but in June? Tell you what - you ( proverbial you... not you personally) don't want +10 out of July. Trust me - that might represent a problem.

Front's limping through Ayer ( for reference ..) as I'm typing. We have dark bases in a general over-cast, humid still but underbelly skud tendrils are moving ESE while everything else above is still SW, so it gives the allusion of a drift undercutting. It's not a lot of momentum on this thing at the moment. Be that as it may, WPC is also analyzing the front right over us here in western Middlesex, and it slopes down to eastern CT. It seems to be out ahead of satellte baroclinic banding/leaf, ...almost smacks as an ana cloud deck. interesting. Not sure but this seems to be doing everything it physically can to make sure your bold can't happen LOL No one asked but tomorrow is going to be about 74 with 1,000 mi visibility in an atmosphere of unknowable RH - that's like a +7 SD 'good' day. The exceptionally rare 11 in the 1 to 10 scale

Mm... I realize I may be a bit of maverick intellect in this discussion when it comes to the ENSO modulation of the winter hemisphere but no - y'all are way too far weighting the ENSOs, those that are particularly of the < 1 or > -1 in the crucial domain space(s) "correlation" - which I put in quotes because that correlation itself HAS TO BE CHANGING. Ugh - ...Unless we want to deny climate change. Climate, is an aggregate occurrence of events, divided by the number of those events. Those occurring events, before the average takes place, are guided by changes in the environment. Like, duh duh duhnnnn - a warming world. This would be true in a cooling world, too. Just happens to be, the Earth stowed 3 billion years worth of fossil fuels into the lithosphere, and a single force comes along ( the "Anthropocene Epoch" ), and threatens to reactivate all its reactive volatile chemistries back to the environment in 1/1,000,000,001 th of that former span of time - mm yeeeah, I'm gonna go ahead and ask you to come in on Sunday too, and admit we are in a global warming problem that is seriously going to f'up seasonal climate at middle latitudes, and it is likely already happening in our life-times ( I love that escape tactic). Just a hunch - Part of the problem is, there is vernacular gap related to sloppiness of terminology. We probably shouldn't call it climate change? I mean, sure, the climate is changing for those outside the Industrial enabling delusion bubble, that is. But we should probablycall it, changing weather types leading to changing averages that are no longer infer-able. Because this longer wordier approach drills it in that the system is not responding to climate change. The wrong way around and isn't proving useful to the masses. But ... I also realize, the baby elephant in the room that is growing is that people want to engage in seasonal prediction; which by definition requires' predictors,' and without the ENSO mantra and narrative to canvas, people don't know how to apply any paint to that discussion. They don't want their fans and followers to open their seasonal press release and it's entire content reads, "Changing climate means the methods for prediction are no longer valid. N/S ...so enjoy the outlook! " But, it all unfortunately means we are all just speculative rubes defaulting outside the cutting edge that separate plausible, fancifully worded fiction, from more likely truths. So here's my rube take: For the 100th time, the Hadley Cell is beginning to expand it's termination boundary ( which is amorphous - it's not like a 'curb' in space like you see on the edge of boulevard ... ) beyond the ENSO tropical nutation field - that limits the ENSO's direct forcing ability ( general physical interfacting ) with the main band of the westerlies. This is not John verbosity and jamming my own bs down people's throats. I've cited both source, and personal observation/anecdotal that supports the former, sourcing. It empirical from other sources et al in the ambit of research, as well as formulaic presently. But, I am probably a maverick relative to this social-mediasphere. It's just IMHO, but evidence has been out there for awhile: higher ENSO reliance is old school.

Hey Don - thanks for all this recap and refinement in data delivery. Always appreciated ( and fascinating ) in/during significant event postmortem "... The June 2021 heatwave was among Phoenix's and Tucson's most severe June heatwaves and their most severe heatwave this early in the season. This heatwave developed as an extreme upper air ridge evolved during an era of rising June temperatures and an ongoing drought. An extreme heat event commenced at Tucson on June 11 and it commenced at Phoenix on June 13..." Quick comments, one anecdotal, one observed/philosophical, respectively: One ... I've often mused that heat waves in July and August, as extreme as they are, are actually manifested under an' insolation disadvantage' - so to speak, compared to that June 7 thru July 7 span. Those latter ones manifest in a more favorable circulation medium, but are missing the pinnacle solar. Don't say that to the dead souls of 1995 Hades On Earth Chicago heat wave that didn't make it - unfortunately, the enormity of that event is still a false equivalence to the absolute scalar potential of what "could have happened" if all that set up on June 20! That's another in the myriad of those interesting sort of 'tendency checks-and-balances' that miraculously save Earth ( and there are very many in other physical domains ). Seasonal lagging by a month or more, protects the hemispheres from the hostility of the hottest potential; at the other end, the deeper cold arrival tends to occur when the sun's already coming back. In a 'hippy' sense, Kumbaya for life to have those extremes tend to soften if we want to get into the Goldilocks discussion. But, sometimes these "rules" break - Two ... The 'heat dome' out was was actually the ridge that gave us the unusual five days of 90 up here in NE U.S. the week prior; it retrograded toward the west and slipped right under Chicago ( while changes in a Rossby wave order rolled-out over southern Canada ) to where it then re-anchored over the SW. This all reminds me of non-lineary wave arguments.. For the general read - the ridge it's self is not like an object being moved around in circulation super-structures. What's actually happening is that the forcing that creates the ridge is moving west; that force is non-linear wave function/forcing. It has to do with transitive wave-mechanics, where on-going activity at point A acts like a wave-guide and drives the emergence of wave structures at point B, with no apparent or observable connection between the two points in space. You get that in fluid dynamic systems...etc. As a separate point of interest, when no observable connection results in sudden wave emergence in the ocean - for example - this is can lead to rogue-wave phenomenon. And so the ridge really was forcibly emerging west relative to the flow - it gives the allusion of the ridge bodily moving west. Troughs do the same - in fact, ridge-trough couplets compose a single wave length, but the non-linear forcing can favor one or the other. All retrograde motion is in fact 'support shifting' It's why those are the most difficult leading times in deterministic Meteorology, because retrograde is synonymous with non-linearity activity and that is by nature .. 'invisible' as a governing motivator. These take place more frequently in the atmosphere, because the atmosphere is less dense and is moving faster. My personal 'hypothesis' is that the biggest events take place when non-linear, and linear wave forcing mechanics super-impose constructively within the same spatial domain. The linear is infer-able via the EOF suggestion/correlation ( teleconnectors like PNA ..AO/EPO/NAO/WPO ... MJO etc...although the MJO is in fact a wave strength index; being MJO is a wave, probably does play a mathematical roll in inducing these...). Non linear contribution is the 'positive bust' so to speak. Or, in other facets, for lack of better description, it is like that 'feeling' you get that the EPO is going to balloon - then it happens. But why? It may be some form of intuitive insight as to these 'spooky actions' at a distance - rip from Quantum Mechanics but is seems apropos. Non-linearity may in fact become linear, too, through the physical boundary of the emergence, the other side of which is synergistic result set hat has become real.

It’s in the soundings ...you can see the marine layer in the soundings. Yes it numerically lowers the Cape; it has to thus affect the thunderstorms. That’s just math. I’ve seen radar after radar after radar lose strength when crossing the streamline analysis were the interface is as far north as southern New Hampshire during the south wind contamination earlier is warm seasons. But in principle I agree the distance from the water certainly helps to counter the stability factoring. I bet you have a problem disk in your lumbar region; you should go to the doctor if it reoccurs like that. But then again he’ll just tell you to have a $50,000 surgery

I went over the handle bars last year but was luck. Scrapes and bruises... People need to realize even at 15 miles an hour things can happen really fast