Typhoon Tip

It's more than then just the GFS operational, tho - as was just sneaky mentioned in a brief sentence now scrolled ... the entire ensemble mean of the GEFs has lost this - all but small vestiges. Essentially ... gone. hmm ... Hopefully either it, or the Euro's EPS et al, will be 100% correct. That way we get to chide and humiliate one or the other for being uniquely abysmal -

Ha. Well there’s some seasonal relativity there … yeah it’s the GGEM and outside of day 5 at that but 132 looked like it’d be better performing but the 138 hyper contracted the system into the dimensions of a thunderstorm. Jesus

This is probably where the Euro’s control mechanisms come in handy

Bottom line it’s gonna do this probably for the next two days

Yeah no kidding. meanwhile the GGEM destroys

GFS is carrying the system still. That ICON was just weird. this thing is slipping initialization

Wow. That may be the biggest about face in a single run I’ve ever seen. ICON is is mostly sunny. Pretty sure the 12z was warning event … heh

I'm sure y'all have covered this ... as we did countless times in the 2,000 page super thread last year ... but it won't becuase from cottage industry to 800 lb gorilla scales, the concept of COVID has become too industrialized. It's got a profit interest now... That's basically going to protract it - and there are enough toe-the-line population that will gladly enforce and set rules based for what has become incorporated. It is just as much endemic to our species, as it is genetic to global economy - Oh it'll switch from COVID to just riding the germaphobia that it has triggered ...

We just need this so dubbed 'Dooms day glacier' to go ahead and unleash the back-held weight of a small continent in ice, ...and have it cataclysmically slide one afternoon into the sea... effectively setting off a global two foot tsunamis that doesn't go back out to sea.

This is just an arbitrary member .. but there a lot with this look -

Not to turn on the d-drip and walk away but ... just got around to looking over some of those individual 12z GEF members. HUGEly improved consensus over 00z for one just in general. But, 10 or so individual members have very large snow ( yes SNOW!) totals falling in a short period of time between 144 and 156/168 hours. The storm is moving right along, but in those members, it appears enough anyway. They cross the bomb threshold, ... large QPF totals on the west side of neg tilted trough/wind max along ideal trajectory; riding up immediate astride NJ-MA. There is probably has excessive frontogen UVM banding in the I-95 collocation... probably why they are turning the moisture upside down. I mean ... not to get into details. LOL No but it is a lot of fun to see this cinema... I give you that. It's been a while since we could enjoy a good game of speculation pong

or those savvy I'm actually curious what the 18z Euro suite signals out there near the edge

For entertainment only: ... this is this thing's might without the western ridge kickback As a result of this it is consequentially moving fast - which would limit some impacts if so. Real concern: But again.. I want see what the ridge does in the model runs about 48 hours from now. We have seen plenty times in the past, the Pac forcing adjust those bigger(smaller) in the boundary of the short and mid ranges.

I here you! But in all honesty .. my "menace" in the ending context there was for amplitude alone ... I just don't have insight into ptype from this range - not that anyone cogent does... just sayn' again, ...for the general reader, this is a higher confidence track-able aspect,alone. We are prooobably 2 days from details in normalcy/model error climate if you will. The speed of the flow and the low arc height of the western ridge isn't helping matters, because for every radii we lose, we increase the dreaded needle thread aspect. Thing is... you could just get incredibly fortunate ( notice I didn't say "lucky" hahaha ), and have the ridge go amp while nudging east. You could successfully place a slowing bomb in just the right location by dart method It's almost scary that the EPS and GEFs essentially have the placement - we wait on the bomb. It's got a lot of power man. wow. Really. In a corrective scope, you drive the ridge in the west with lowered static heights over Florida and that thing is a candidate for exception mid level depth near the Del Marva.

Some quick observations I've made during the day ... The pattern reshuffle with a restructuring of the PNA relay into N/a is quite likely and legit. Entering into this new regime... we kick things off, D6/7, with coastal. 1 ... yesterday I surmised the Archembault scenario pretty hard.. However, upon really focusing on the behavior of the individual GEF members ( because my life is so fulfilling and pithy in meaning, otherwise...) I don't get the sense that is what is happening over the course of the week ... leading any would-be event on D6/7. It appears we merely have a well time, yet potent Pac injection of S/W mechanics, taking some advantage of the reduction in negative interference east of 100 W across the continent. By the time this feature nears the lower OH Valley ..D5 or so... the ridge is essentially gone..."almost" but not quite down to the climate height signal over the TV. Immediately aft of this S/W, there is modest albeit crucial .. ridge growth over the Rockies .. then nudging east, as a responses to the PNA forcing. 2 ... that ridge is key ...I really think the biggest sensitivity for how the D6/7 evolves will come down to the handling of that aspect of the total L/W space. If the ridge remains flattish... then we prooobably deal with more a NJ model detonation of sorts... If it ends up more amplified - which is a correction vector for such a steeply rising PNA index, btw ... - then we'll have to contend with future guidance trending slower and potentially deeper, with more actually H.A. look. Such a system could even find its way toward the eastern Lakes, give to the lack of downstream exertion for having lost the western limb of the NAO. In fact, the latter is positive by then. Those are my two main take aways for where things set up now. Obviously...subject to change. ...as an after ob/thought.. .that S/W is really is deceptively powerful. It has jet max over 110 kts at 500, and nearing 150 kts at 300 mb ... as it is torpedoing over the MS Valley around 96 hours. This intense jet core has been very consistent ... regardless of the total L/W amplitude and whether it gets any physical help that way. Should the western ridge pop as a future correction in guidance, this thing could become a menace.

I mean with storm climo the way it’s been in recent years … one blockbuster should end any debate.

Actually a fuzzy signal mid month, too -

Yeah... mistake wandering over there. heh

Ah ... again, I wanna stress for those that really kinda sorta 'need to see these model runs deliver' ... best not to focus or 'look' rather for details at this range. I mean, 7 days - this is a favorable synoptic super structure evolving, that has the benefit of an Archembaultian system embedded - it's true that a storm is higher confidence. I would say 'favors' cold p-types, but that is by no means a declarative. I guess my point is, your going to get ticked off waiting run to run for ticks. LOL

Really ... on the treadmill at the gym; hadn't seen it yet

Echoing Will's post: this is impressive signal for D7/EPS mean

Re the D7/8 event: I don't have any apps installed where I can very readily generate looping slide shows... but I'd like to do that with the GEFs and GEPs ( https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2021123112&fh=162 ) ...going back four cycles. You can definitely see the mean is shifting SW down the coast in both, and the total spread is shrinking. It's already a decent signal as of these 12z means. It appears the operational versions of both these ( in fact the Euro comparatively too - ) may be west outliers by a considerable margin.

"Lost"? ...ha... I know what you mean but... just still establishing a favorable interval with this. The PNA mode change is quite likely real, having every ensemble system ( haven't seen the Brazilian ....) indicating a mass field flip in key regions, usually doesn't go down without storm(s) - that's the focus. As far as D7, I agree... I would advise folks that the ensemble means at this range are probably more telling - ...fwiw, therein most of those are more coastward oriented.

Fwiw - the operational GFS look similar, but it's ensemble mean ( GEPs for that matter, too ) have been trending more coastal. This is the scatter plot range for this sort of early .. long lead outlook/risk assessment.

To me that ( bold ) is above median/climate probability ...pattern reshuffle. yeah. There's going to be event(s) 'precipitating' ( haha sue me!) following out of that... Models will wander a bit at this range - duh. Some runs more onto it, then fade...bring it back. ...blah blah. But I think the D7-ish is the first of the plausible scope(s) of interest. As far as cutter versus coastal... I dunno - that's again going to be speculation. Everything is at this range... But with the NAO going away, that does sort of leave room for Lakes cutter. I would look for the N-S component of the larger R-wave amplitude as the PNA index is rising this week. If that emerges with a lot of N and S ...that means that we dig earlier in the trough sequencing with that 130 hour S/W coming through the West... That would tend to signal DTX routing. The Pacific will instruct the future details as to where the ridge and trough axis align, and goes without saying... at D 6 to 8 range that can vary 1,000 naut miles in a single cycle. I mean you hope it doesn't for headache's sake -