Typhoon Tip

And I think that is unavoidable given the evolution in the total blend of the technological acumen - heh... I mean ...that blocking node that evolves over NE QUE and the western Maritime region pretty much WILL send a BD reality check to Atlantic Georgia ...anyone with a modicum of realistic perspective would think -

Humans are deceptive ... in this case, 'guisers' They hide their desire for ease and comforts behind a guise of that concern, a film of virtuosity, purported by a fear of safety aspect - when what they are really after, but feel they need to be dishonest about ...is not having to smell bad breath in a company meeting, and listen to some other workoholic drone on about quarterly mission statements - answer to bosses they loathe in person. Or deal with other people they have to pretend are part of a corporate 'family' in general. To mention, commuting and giving 45 - per average per capita - hours a week to interior of one's car, or public hustle and bustle of T-stops...etc...etc... in other words, they've found comfort doing their gigs as societal shut-ins and they fear losing it, so instead of being honest, ...they lie, and hide behind that nonsense... And the beauty of it is, since we live in a 'WOKE' era now...we are not allowed to challenge other people's 'feelings' or we're shaders - brilliant!

dry begets dry, as the old saying goes

Seems pretty uniform in every direction - what you see is what you'lll get. Being proximal to the Bay ... they may be chillier than out in metrowest and further ... seabreeze. Probably upper 50s low 60s

Some posts over recent pages touched on this a little... At first I tended to a smidge of attitude about the logic of consignment practices myself, I mean considering the average household. For the bell curve of population density ... the vast majority of household do not come along with state of the art ventilation systems like you get in these 750,000 $ luxurious baronial modern homes up therein N. Westford Mass... Whatever the numbers are, but 70...80...90 % of median edifices are like the grid layout housing of the San Fernando Valley, ... Or worse yet, "the projects" of common vernacular ..etc, up through lower mid class apartment complexes ...perhaps built 20 years standards, and probably most likley do not provide ICU ventilation filtration ( obviously). These are homes where ventilation is achieved by opening a window. Moreover, they cannot leave those vulnerabilities unattended, not for very long given to the travails of 'common socioeconomic stressing' - to put it nicely. SO, those environments in fact "concentrate" pathogenic agents - that seems to be in paradox wrt open "distancing" physical settings. In the latter sense, one might immediately suspect spreading out, huh - that is what lowers concentration from parts per thousand toward millions ... or billions. Considering the theoretical particle load requirement for C-19, it seems less is best. But that's the 'surface logic' ? 'lockdown' ensured what? Well, ...I think it all still just comes down to the original concept of needing to slow the rate transmission through an otherwise nakedly vulnerable population. We can't forget, the medical infrastructure ...and science for that matter et al, was immediately assessed as inadequate. I can picture the seen. The room smells of old coffee in a pall tinged by stale cologne, together not completely damping out the sterility of a typical Pentagon Nat security conference room setting. It's closed-door session with WHO representation, "So what you are telling me is that as bad as I think this is, it's much worse, or -" "I'm trying to impress that you don't know - you cannot make assumptions based on those exmples. SAR 2003... the Flu, 1918. Irrelevant. This is unknown vector, sir, and considering where this appears to have originated --" "Uh, hold on. Wait right there. I must interrupt to remind the members of present meeting and to any party privy to or affiliated to this information, this cannot be made public - go ahead. You were saying" "Ah...right. So early indications, this caries a very real chance to cripple society." "OH c'mon - cripple." "Quite please. Please... people, let her finish" Stronger exhale precedes, "What we are suggesting is a messy event, sir" fashioning double quotations in the air. Chuckles reverberate. "Excuse me - I'm sorry. Uh "Messy" ? "It's, ah, what we refer to as an M - S - E event ... uh, a modern setback event. Basically, it could very well bring the Industrial civilities of the world for that matter back to before --" "Relax. Relax. I get it. Despite the incredulity of the others," panning his eyes across the retinue briefly, "You sold me at 'considering where it originated.' "Okay. Okay. I'm on the same page - you're talking about panic and social order." "You have to understand," the head of Sociological Stability Research Division intercedes, " ...We are already dealing with self- propagating force in culture and society, already nearing a break-point where social trust cannot be restored, and --" "Oh god" They had to give medicine and science a chance to catch up. Offering no advice given the novel nature and the early infectious rates, when mass media was only offering dour dystopian fear scenarios with images of intubation and other horrors, ...panic was also a concern - no doubt. Break down of social order becomes a national and perhaps Global security risk..It domino dimensions. Hind sight being 20/20 has it's advantages, but it is too easy to forget the utter conundrum of unknowns faced 18 months ago. There was also going to have to be an assumption of 'process of discovery' built into this. I mean, the hint there was in the term, 'NOVEL' when this was first described. Novel SAR-CoV-2 virus ...etc... So to be fair. Yeah, the poor household that succumbs ..but that is a control - sort of - environment that is thus containable ...because when quarantine is implement, containment can take place... spread in the total population is slowed and those infrastructures can keep up.

I guess folks need the modeled nice day(s) to time ... landing on an actual weekend day ... otherwise not worth mentioning. LOL. Yeah, can't say I blame anyone that hasn't 'cashed in' on the Pandemic WFH movements and was stuck still commuting to the inspired mise se science of florescent lighting, the murmur of a printer, and some distant barely audible conversation as the only aspects that break into silent rage of getting in a deliverable on time. For those of us that have been working at home ... it's going to be windows open and birds arguing over who gets the hen. Today, tomorrow and Friday ... at least west and N of I-95, these should all have window open afternoons. They are all top 20, maybe top 10 contender gems Fri/Sat. Saturday does look like MEX MOS is like dabatbase brain numbed and horrible. That sun and those synoptics on top of one another will generate some heat in the sheets for us. 76 F with light offshore wind, and even a DPs into the lower 50s too...etc. Next week toward mid month ? yikes - The GEF -based PNA has been flagged for 10 days with stalwart consistency to rise from -2 to +2 SD while the NAO nadirs ... that's a large telecon converged signal. Either one solo would lend ... but in tandem that starts stacking the odds. It's also a duet song and dance we never once observed spanning the last 4 months when in principle we really wanted to. It is what it is. I've been saying along that seasonal modulation/ .. damping is ongoing, and is an offset factor. It may keep whatever takes place on the palled side. However, we have celebrated(suffered) bigger winter events during April 15 to May 1 - duh.. It's not a matter of 'can.' It's a matter of diminishing return rate, but eventually they do occur. I've looked over some of the bigger April events in history. A common denominator/ .. behavior that took place in all: an inject of cold took place closer to the actual 'main' cyclogenesis while it was developing - I think crucial timing sort of 'synergistically' favored the colder results. You know? 'more than the sum of the cold parts' caused a result that over performs.. I suspect these yore and lore jobs got some of that advantage. ..interesting. But most important, that sort of delicate timing cannot really be resolve at D7-10 range ... About all we can do is rely upon the layout to detect whether probability is situated to do so - if past could ever serve as any sort of model. Having these in tandem as the ides of April are nearing, is just such a layout in my mind. If I had been monitoring this look back in March I would have a thread going for early risk assessment as it is.

Lol I know its like sign me up to be poked as many times possible for one vaccine yayyy

Can you choose the 1 or 2

Biden’s trying to mandate all states open to vaxing all ages by Apr 16?

keep in mind ... "suspect" is not a declaration or anything ...lol The context of that is more of suspicious of the Euro's scale and degree of toaster bathing - ... I will say, so long as the PNA is positive/rising, and the NAO stays negative, at any point a substantial impulse could avail of that and it all goes south really quite - I mean the scaffolding for it is in place. It's almost like we are dodging bullets and getting sort of lucky, relative to +1 PNA/ ... -2 west based NAO The Euro appears to send a BD down over the weekend too...it's just that it's merged into the on-going top-heavy pressure pattern ( higher pressure N of Maine already..) so it's a bit obscured in there. One would expect a BD might get sent down with that block getting stronger over NE Quebec. It's a lot of confluence and a BD should really evolve given time... I could see us being laze faire with near hammock glut afternoons and then... duh duh dunnnnn - time to slam some screen doors and snap flags to rudely re-introduce the planetary spring curse. Lol

Not to be a semantic noog but ... that 'switch,' in that context you use ...sort of implies the opposite of 'winter won't die' ?? I don't see this as diametrical to that - which would mean 70 to 80 and summery ... which we have had March's and April obscenely warm like that ... mainly sprinkled about the statistics since the year 2000. On that .. prior to 2000, I personally NEVER saw that happen. I have, since 2000, experienced three springs that held warm anomalies startlingly high at all times, and more than a handful that at least had an intra-seasonal run in with exotic heat for so early in the season. Not sure what's up with the climate that's not changing Being dyck there a little ... But you get my meaning - Anyway, this spring seems ... pretty darn average frankly. Oh, it'll be above average to some degree, ... perhaps atoning for the CC footprint. But not outlandish like those mentioned above ( save that one warm period a month ago maybe ... )... By and large, not terrible misery misted, and not eerily hot either. We still have April to go... and frankly May is not guarantee around our region of the world either. But just sayin' so far -

Little uneasy in saying this ... buuuut, the latter mid and extended range may get forced by the sun to be less miserable. This typically happens in spring. If a given scenario is coming along without necessarily strong enough anomalous forcing, the mid and extended dour looks will tend to end up not as bad once said range is in short. 2005 May? April 1987 ? ... those are examples where said forcing WAS substantively powerful enough to block the sun so to speak... And the S.A.D. putrescence was so dour as to challenge the very endurance of man for having achieved that, too - But that 00z Euro operational is coughing up hair balls in that look... Strikes me as more residual and I bet the model smooths some of that out as it near/future guidance. That weird neg tilted trough at D8.5-10 that only has 2 contours around it...probably doesn't really have enough actual mechanical energy to dictate the surface pressure pattern from Bermuda to Chicago when push comes to shove. This week did that ? You man recall ... 7 day ago, the Euro had us in a rhea wheel of real 38 F misty shits .. with light rain and wet snow ( non sticking variety ) for days... As this time arrived, gradually aspects designed less putrid. Now look what this turned into. The vortex become gradually less obtrusive and stalled, weaker really ... and tomorrow thru Friday could be 64 to 72 with high April sun by day, though an open emerald blue sky. You'll look down the street and see the air shimmering and with light wind. These could be candidate top 10 qualifier afternoons. Meanwhile the nights may even stay above freezing - kind of reminds me of those nape days last week, only 15 milder at night. Those were nuts! We had one day here ... 19.4 was the low at 6:35 a.m., and it was 64 average among the home-stations within a mile or two of town at 4 pm. Sun set, 41 immediately.. ... as an aside, we are limping into green up here in the interior ( at least in Nashoba 'nighttime cold hell' Valley). I 'm sure down along the S-SE Coastal Plains you're further along. Really the shrubbery buds are sluggishly opening, lawns and fields are sort of greener. However, I am noticing the 200 year old maple, corner to my property, it's buds are starting to swell just a little. I suspect all these various prominences will accelerate(d) their intentions of life by week's end. I have noticed over the years - really accelerating green-up is more about keeping the nights above freezing.

Oh... heh Pittsburg NH

Heh...makes me nervous that there are observations in various dimensions of the physical geography, at global and local scales, that were not supposed to be "real"ized until much later - as in 2070 ...etc. I don't recall what climate papers/ .. models, and/or consortium of scientist out among the greater ambit for which to cite for the general users of this social-media ...no, but, recall reading that turn of phrase in numerous areas from Coral Bleaching, to ice loss ...and various other observational metrics in between. So, tfwiw I suppose... but when you/we say "unrealistic," ( and I agree in principle that higher end cataclysms may be as unlikely as the lower end, just the same... ) ..the problem is in the middle sufffix: "real" Since there are physical observations that are beating the climate models to the punch ( so to speak ..), I am losing confidence in our notions/judgements of what is and is not realistic vs merely plausible.

yeees and no - Gonna go ahead and partially disagree here with all do respect - 'never' is a long time. Lol, I give you the nod for hyperbole tho. - it's a matter of slowly diminishing returns... IF one means one blizzard every 1/2 ... then 1, ...then 2... then 10 ... 60 years, by the turn of the next century ( or whatever it turns out to be) because of CC ... okay, they've technically 'never stopped' But in practical terms: the frequencies will rarefy.

I dunno... maybe - That was a snark rip from a CNN 'Project Planet' headline, which as an org ...they shimmer artfully in turning screws with shock and awe headline tactics so it says what it says - I would add, though, that comparing Japan's legacy to the U.S. is like comparing an 1854 Petrus, to grapes still on the vine so they might - Man, if so...1200 years is like the typical seam -length on an actual geological Epoch turn ... so that would be an impressive record to actually break.

Japan just recorded its earliest cherry blossom bloom in 1,200 years. 12. hundred. years. - gee ...wonder why

That Euro is on 3 consecutive days of contiguous improvement in the complexion of the sensible weather from Wed onwards... Now, right out to the end of the run. 3 days ago, we were good for a Wednesday nape day, with a so-so on Thursday...Then 2 days ago, we were good for both Wed and Thur being solid napers ...with hints of not being quite as bad in the general synoptsis for the weekend. In the last 24 hours -worth of cycles the model has morphed down right balmy, for days. The GFS ?? man - if I were to anthropomorphize that model out of frustration alone, it would be petty on-purpose finding needling reasons to never admit summer is still coming. What an asshole! lol. But the Euro has us in a COL column from D 3 to to 10. We are the fortunate roulette spinners of ending up under the ridge node that separates the troughs of a seasonal/climate Omega block. Spring omega blocks are classic across N/A/ April phenomenon. The set up features a pin-wheel - ridge - pin-wheel configuration from west to east. If your region ends up in one of the pinwheels... you're f'ed. If you are lucky and end up under the narrow ridge the separates the two - such that the Euro is attempting to hold our region under for week straight ( hmm...), the rich get richer. It's interesting how we've transformed from a nasty cold stormy look that was of course .1 F too mild to allow snow ( so, 'hell' for short), into a relative utopia for the Mid Atlantic to Maine axis like this. Weird... It's gotta be too good to be true. Meanwhile, the GEF teleconnectors are selling 72.4" of new snow for NYC to PWM ...solidifying that particular modeling technology as the crowning achievement in American math - f! I dunno...maybe we'll just verify a soothingly compromised 13 days of 38 F mist instead. Not sure which way to go. The Euro solution simply cannot happen in a GEFs telecon layout ... one of these two philosophies is going perform better -

HC expanding 'CC' f-up winter ... get used to it ... it's the rest of our lives, ultimately en route to a destination of no winter as far N as Maine given enough decades -

You didn't ask me ...and I am aware, sometimes I come off as 'philosophically heavy handed' and perhaps even a tad hard to follow for how I choose to deliver lines of dialect ... ( ha, like that right there <--) But, I think a lot of the PTSD you describe is really more like a 'rattling of design' What I mean by that is..we have been, for multiple, multiple generations at this point, conditioned ( becomes culturally institutional in nature ) to see our reality as assumptions - this is a bit different than "entitlement" - but shares kinship with that definition to some degree. It's simply that we have been born and socialized into an interesting relativity of realism ( if you will...); basically, we don't realize how much of our daily existence is convenience - we've long been too far separated from any circumstance to remind, and culture has sans any necessity to do so. I remember musing in the early days of this thing ... just how relative it all is, by posing a circumstance to elucidate the point . Consider the average civilian from the year 1721 - picture that man or woman, waking, drinking, eating, raising kids, doing what it takes, ... living in that mise se science of various travails and ambient threats to their well-being, and then ... compare that to the canned ravioli, immunized, iPhone addicted ...overly stimulate walking belief of orgasms on tap asshole that knows no other sense of reality ...because they were born in raised, drowned in convenience their whole way? To this latter bloke, what they have gone through rattles there reality to the core; to the man or woman from 1721 ... ? This is/was as common to their notions of what life and times 'should be' as drinking from the well. I just find the juxtaposition interesting - ...the generational cultural relativism' of it. Upon reflecting in that ...after awhile, one may start to sense how that PTSD aspect is really no more than shattering one's illusions that were provided withing the fragility of an Industrial bubble ...that most are not even aware exists in the first place by virtue of the fact that they simply have known no other reality. And whether we are aware of it or not ...? All this biologically un-evolutionarily sound mask wearing, and social distancing stuff...it's all a conceit of control within that bubble - we are, whether we are aware or not, scrambling to patch the holes in the bubble.

I don't think it's so far fetched... If I had this layout of telecon on Feb 2nd or even March 2nd for that matter I'd have a thread already going for 'prelim risk assessment' That's a monster signal 10 to 16th ... I've mentioned it before but - I don't think April is quite the same beast with the normalization of the sun - in fact, I can sense that already ...as this Monday and Tuesday is more than less coming into shorter range focus as not quite the same shit smear as it stunk like three days ago in the runs... When I look over the other bigger April and May events in history, there was rifle shot roulette timing ...where the cold plume injected right on the cyclogen to maximize - and I think it needs that to succeed at this time of year, or it goes cat-paws really fast - talking about big lows with WAA mechanics. A snow shower in early May is a different phenomenon altogether. I dunno - monster signal ...maybe at the wrong time of year I'd love to see that spread in DJF tho - man.

It's called labile hypertension ... those that run a bit high, run a bit hot - lol... It is 44 average around the home stations within a mile or two of mi casa... But the wind is about as close to legit nill as is molecularly possible - ... flags motionless... under about the purest clearest blue imaginable. April sun cannot be denied! Out putsing around the yard ,... more so assessing and surveying what it'll need for now. But in a sweatshirt and some halfhearted commitment to picking up debris, some raking, ...bit of clipper detailing here and there, this weather it really defines and underscores the "naperil" appeal - classic faux warm day. Does not feel that chilly at all. The 12z GFS operational run is - quite ironically - putting up close to top 10 days both Wed and Thu now... Thicknesses (500 mb) surpassing 540 dm by a goodle number, with by then the equivalent of September 4th sun ( for perspective), and 850s creeping to +5 ... and light wind, and low ceiling sigma level RH ...etc..etc... should by busting MOS and tickling 70 again with limited flag wobbling spring fever as wildly more contagious pandemic in the region than this recent dystopian cinema ever was.. .LOL

At ~ 58 million full vaccination count as of this morning, ... or ~ 17.5% of the U.S. population, I am curious at what percentage ranges ( be it 30, 50 ...70 ) do we see statistical curves break/respond? The first curve I'd like to see break toward less is the persistent 60 to 70K new cases per day. I check every evening while in my own doomscrolling daily dosing .. That number doesn't seem to modulate up or down by much. We witnessed the intrawinter wave that was modeled, and along with that, thank god for CNN's "ethical" cause, the fear that pumped another few billion into their dystopian rage. But that wave came and went; the new cases per diem crashed. Now in the last 20 days..it appears to not really be declining. At 58 to 72 K per day, it seems to just be bouncing around in that range. I'd like to know at what full vax count do we see it actually slope negative - as in like all the sudden, 50K ... then 40K ...30K ...without returning, across that break point.. That might be an indication that this herd thing is getting close. This is not going as fast as it was touted to go, a month ago. I remember a lot Biden optimism then that we'd have half the population vax'ed by the end of April or mid May, and in projecting the last 2 weeks of percentages, ...I think that falls short of 50% by a significant margin. Plus, among the various texting groups I belong to, there is a way around preferential restriction due to dose logistics. Namely, that toward the end of days ... doses of the vaccine have to be thrown out if unused. Seems there is sloppy management of supply and demand connection there .. but be that as it may, if one shows up at the end of shift rotation and asks if there were any 'no shows,' or left overs..etc., they are quietly administered and shown the door - thanks for helping us not waste vaccine - and they're out. Lol, meanwhile I'm sure there are those rocking in wait to get theirs. I've made it the last year without getting this thing, and so ... seems 'reasonable' that relative to whatever I am doing, so long as I don't deviate much I should make it .. - it is likely I can make it the next two weeks... at which point for Mass it opens up to general population above 16.. That all said, I'm am wondering if that is the same or close across most states - those dates? Because the bell curve of population mass is in fact inside that 16 to 60 age range, so when that time comes, we may see an acceleration of the vax rates.

yup ... low levels cold is offsetting an april sun's ability to diurnal destabilize - that s pretty damn impressive -...although we do now have strata streets here -

Lol... so long as 'ending' means for the World - cuz... you or me or J-zee could be immunized for f'n Rabies ...doesn't matter. Unless the society scope and scale rejoins to f'n in the streets - ... we're still nightmaring this masked distancing .... shut in life style, paranoid as "enabled" germaphobes in a bullshit delusion that we can actually live in a veritable cesspool (Earth's biome ) ...detached from that same cesspool. Idiocracy is what happens when human conceit gets in the way of reality - But it's worth pointing out because... there's already attempts by big media to social engineer this as never ending. We could have 96 % population density immunization against the C-19 and all variants, and plied fear and paranoia will still have us 'sheeple' with imposed upon liberties -