Typhoon Tip

Can you imagine if a plume of that got sent east and inserted itself into one of these unusual non-hydrostatic bubbles ?

Did you guys here about this ? Apparently large tracts if exposed mollusks around shore habitats along the Pacific coast were ‘cooked alive’ in that heat wave up there. I mean I don’t know if that means headin out there with butter and garlic sauce exactly - it is CNN’s gaslighting headline machine but still wow kinda sorta maybe scary. I think I’ve heard of something like that happening somewhere before tho.

Just a personal observation: This sort of phenomenon has become more common. Regional longer duration norms in general meeting hydro quotas, in dramatically shorter time-spans, sometimes right down to the single event scale. Longer version imho's: We don't have to look too far in the past to see other examples of this. 1/3 or perhaps 1/2 of a seasonal snow fall total laid down in a single event from N of the Capital District (E NY), to central NH during during last December's mid month anomaly. It is peculiar that the component parametrics of the overall atmospheric disturbance were not appreciably more forcing than the 'seasonal anomaly' - yet their gestalt was so extreme. These sort of synergistic emergent phenomenon are both becoming more common, and are likely attributable to the changing climate. Primitive, early modeling sciences that created the frame-work for those early technologies in modeling suggested this - how climate change would impact. But, in the 30 years of this ongoing challenge, the "dramatic event" aspect has been probably the most consistently reproducible portrait of how climate change imperils Humanity - and... all living biology on this planet - we really need to stop with the human-centricity in this discussion but, good luck... Climate disruption is not expressed by "warmth" alone; it is the increasing frequency of short duration extremes, both of temperature and precipitation. Last December winter storm in central NE, this recent June's heat, and since, a single stalled frontal boundary along with weak over-sold and headlined Elsa managing to out-chore a whole season's maintenance in water ? These are three in a countless array of examples popping off on Earth over recent decade(s); they certainly qualify as increasing frequency of short duration excessive anomalies. Time to tip hats to the climate models. Big bombs have happened throughout the Millennia - that's just living in a dynamic system. There are rogue events in all systems, whether those are happening in the seas, or in traffic-patterns that resulted in a Value jetting. Every cause and effect in and including reality its self is based upon restoring forces. Physicist will tell us, it's all wave mechanics building upon wave mechanics - in practice and in principle. Constructive interference focuses wave mechanical energy; sometimes the opposite occurs, and become nothing, too. But the key here is that when there is systemic disruption, there is introducing additional wave mechanics, and that then increases the probability for new constructive interference results - thus augments the event quota. The idea of "climate of catastrophes" being as observable as "warmth", is common knowledge to (say) 38% of human gray matter walking. Everyone else perhaps just lacks the dendritic neuro density of brain box to do so. Ha... half kidding by hate all people. Either way, they are dubious with computationally analysis about their reality, particularly when it comes to this sort of stuff. It almost does seem it is just too mentally untenable. That's bad. Because an interesting human failing is the human ego. When people don't readily understand, they are not stupid, "it's cuz it's bullshit - yeah" Which then has an interesting result: En masse, it constructively feeds-back in increasing their destructive behavior. Now that is an interest species sucking on a proverbial pistol muzzle. Popsicle headache yet? I mean that's my goal here. LOL The common knowledge demographic could be as high as (say) 62 or even 71%, but the problem there is, those that make up that difference formulate their perspectives through moral dimming. And that's the ball game. Hence why Humanity will ultimately die, taking along with it the virtue of it's genius. Climate change is really kind of a bad PR label for a changing climate. It's really much less like CC, and more like SWT: Shotgun Weather Threats. That should be the focus, no fuzzy obscurity terminologies of climate. Climate doesn't come and get you sitting in your living room. 76 mph winds do. At the end of the years we sum them up, then divide by N terms, and the climate hides the spraying bullets that did the damage. Any +7 temperature averaged April, at a vastly more typical cold miserable misty hell like eastern Massachusetts' french kissing the Labradorian witch such that it circumstantially must every early spring, typically means it was 80 F more than a couple times - and that's when it really gets like the toad in the pan of of gradually heating water .. Because who the funk is gonna complain about that? Oh my god, we're all going die in hammocks bathed by utopia weather' Although, to the hold-out late snow neurotics of American Weather Forums - yeah, that's clearly an apocalypse but that's another matter. So why are we trying to impress a risk that hides in abstraction to either mentality that constituents that above majority? The cause of 'warning' about climate was doomed to doubter vitriol all along.

I like this sort of transition just the same. It's neat I mean, 5 pm will be an entirely different universe compared to what it was down my street at noon.

This doesn't mean anything later on - sorry. "got feelin' this winter gon' be a hum-dinger cuz that summer was .." this and that - means nothing.

Yeah again .. this weird, fast end was on the wall when the lashing was giddy with posts in here 2 hours ago. The thing decoupled from the tropical air mass it was toting up the EC with around that time, and almost immediately, ground truth was lighter than Nexrad. Plus, subtly less on sat... while holes opened up in the rain. Basically, we sort of had the last 2 of this low-ball

This is over in an hour even NE Mass...

..its called a coffee can and a ruler ha

It's like when looking at obs ... this thing just detached its self from the tropical bundle of air it was transporting up and has left it behind. So now going forward it trundles away as a mid level residual gyre, raining it's self out over the next 3 hours over SE NH and lower Maine.... meanwhile, suns out in CT ...about the terminus of where the tropical like air was left behind. Really more like NYC. Yup, one way or the other, true tropics don't come N of LI. ahaha... in general. kidding but yeah. It's why what you have to have is a full bird beast rounding the outer Bahamas with the western limb -NAO block guiding it's latitude ascent at Sutton Massachusetts at 55 mph or forget it. It's some kind of mangled variant otherwise.

it's an apt description for here as well, just N of rt 2 in Mass yeah This things structure seems to be breaking down/weakening overall sat presentation, and rad, too. Not sure how that holds up to the model's profile of this things evolution, but that's what I'm seeing

Last few frames on rad show it weakening before the back edge now. Seems this thing's attenuating - my rain intensity is back down to light, so getting shirked/low-balled a little.

Hard stop back edge/arc now over HFD... Sun breaking out ~ Danbury ...

Back edge/arc is sweeping through western CT. Kevin you got about an hr and this shuts off like across a 2 minute span... hour later, you see the sun perhaps - fuzzy but has that appeal -

Yeah rad suggests you are collocated right under a band -

still waiting for that signature roaring rain din ... It's only been thus far light to moderate here in Ayer. It's cool feeling - rather refreshing. Like a cool drink of water. Feels autumnal. This lead air mass will fight to the bitter end - and win under the sounding probably. Just guessin' will see if we disk this thing over top tho - I wonder if this keeps doing this tho. Where ground truth keeps dematerializing to lighter posh as it sweeps NW in these arcs, and every time we look at the radar, it's just about to really set in... Heh. I could see that. 495 hard as a pedestrian cut-off. Mind you half kidding - not a forecast or nuttin'

This is a geek's paradise for that sort of nuanced observation - yeah. Arc has finished in NYC and even the western 1/3 of LI is in the clear. High res vis loop suggests one last arcing high level band SW of the city down there in NE Jersey then it's open sky in in a 576 dm thcikness bath? Yeah, the NAM has 28 C at T1 at Logan nearing 00z so... that would support a Midtown temp of 90 F... I suggest that gradates to 74 up here where I am, but even I may get a burst of slant sun between 5 and sunset here. Anyway, it's interesting that a backside cyclone is warmer - we see that sometimes anyway... when there is colder air in the front sector of cyclones, but ...this isn't that type of cyclone, and the air mass thermally is mirrored

I wanted to catch back up with this aspect sooner but ... heh, admit to caving - with reluctance - into this Elsa shit as actually being interesting. LOL Just kidding. It is.. a little -

This post of yours is dated to yesterday ..granted, but just in case, pump the breaks. Highly unusual, but despite those extraordinarily tall non-hydrostatic heights, idiosyncratic flow structures at mid and upper levels across SE Canada, transiting toward the lower Maritime, have materialized in all guidance across the last 24 to 30 hour's worth of cycles. It's getting consistent and hard to ignore. As a result, they necessarily have to bank an unusually cool air mass into Maine/eastern NE, while 1025 to 1032 mb high slowly passes, blocking/pinning defined front from roughly W NY to S NJ. It is unsual to see that happen right at the very top ceiling of 500 mb atmospheric height mechanics. It' not like this is spring, where it's happing between 565 ad 580... there are no height higher than that ridge dome, yet the models still want to jam 62 F at Logan under 594 dm heights from Monday to Wednesday. It's just perfectly wrong timing emerging out of now where, wrt to confluence and an over-active mid latitude Canadian westerlies band. It could result in the most dramatic surface unbalanced return for heights so high that is even possible - I mean, top of the chart heights, bottom dweller summer air at the surface. I recently opined to Pope about a similar phenomenon that's been increasingly observable over the last 10 years, and then this materializes in the guidance - seem apropos in timing. But this is a recurring thing where the models manufacture low level nuances and aggregate their ability to offset the higher heights/thickness. Boston could very well be, 594 dm heights over 574 dm thickness, with a 62 F chill in easterly drive train drilling salty oceanic air smell-able half way to Albany in that look. Not saying it will ... just that the 00z runs are no where near even warm N of mid Jersey in that layout. All happening in climate edge ridge depths. It's hard to ignore this... It seems the further the world ventures into this CC stuff, the more the model physics seem to fight it? It really casts that allusion of sorts. We keep seeing these mid/extended range modeling obsurdities - and face it, sometimes they happen. You just are not going to see that kind of curved mid and upper ridge signature with that going on below 700 mb - it's like the models are trying to hold the surface in 1955 while the middle troposphere is Venus.

Yeah...that's a good point about backside breeze... I don't know if an actual sting jet really materializes, though. Sure, it certainly parrots one in that look. - the thing is .. in the stricter sense the stinger is an upper level entrained jet and I'm not sure this one has that structural component - but other physical processes support the presence of one, despite not being there - sort of 'mimics' one doing so? Bottom line, not sure where the sting's momentum comes from. What it does have - I'm thinking - is a bit of an isallobaric wind acceleration potential - how much... how little so. The compact structure of the lower pressure layout it, ..well, firstly it is not over-impressively deep. But still, it doesn't have to be very deep if the actual gradient is steep by virtue of being very curved, which is this clearly is. SO, 1001 mb back to standard sea level or more can do some interesting gusts perhaps.

Those side lit crispies in the lingering Bahamian type air would be pretty illuminated while looming over their blue-gray bellies and charcoal dense rain curtains.

Sun's out .... .... in Hartford CT by 4pm maybe? Looking at everything there's a back/underside subsidence ring and at least partly sunny over eastern PA/N NJ with a back edge rollin' right up with this thing's motion suggestive by looping. I'm also hoping that the center passes over Logan so we can watch the BD air mass die by slip knotted wind - alas it prolly passes SE of there. just sayn'

Scott's getting figuratively water-boarded like a revenge party at Guantanamo Bay Cuba, circa 2002 and finally he admits to " ..a bit of Stein break" LOL That's fantastic -

Dude ..I'm tellin' ya, that Dec 2005 right there

This whole ordeal/cyclonic passage is meteorology nerds paradise. It's an ambrosia of interesting stuff to pick through - One ...the whole package defaults the region into a backside warm sector - even though technically ( ..or supposedly...) it is cool-core transitioning, and should have modest CAA -it does, but it can't sensibily appeal that way. For ORH-ASH ( my line ), we'll have 69 DPs at closest pass, but the temp may only be 70... Tomorrows it'll be 84/64 so it's just interesting how its both - all it's really doing is forcibly winning against a lodged in BD airmass. Two .. at a glance this thing right now on radar reminds me of the 2005 Dec thing. It's really tight. It occurs to me, I never did actually check the storm phase diagrams for the Euro inputs - is that even possible ?? I wonder if I was too quick to judge this as a TC entity nearing our latitude, as the surface evolution of that models "looked" TC-like because it was compact. But at present sat/rad, it looks like the Euro's pressure pattern layout, regardless of the phase. I gotta figure though it still has tropical characteristics with DPs over eastern LI, SE zone in the mid 70s. Plus the rain wall/arc on the N side is unusually thick and dense and proficient, above any kind of standard ex-trop cyclonic output. The loop show some impressively cold tops and domes lurching over the surrounding canopy. Three ...Even if we don't observed 40 kt winds at the surface... these other attributes are impressive. Particularly considering this thing's track history. Bordering on a wtf storm. I guess though the idea here is that it timed just exquisitely well to conserve kinematics when it hooked up with the weak trough - getting a mechanical exit jet structural advantage. Looking at the 300mb on the guidance they have a nice exit fan up there over Maine ... albeit somewhat stretched. interesting. I'm sure I'm leaving stuff out.

It’s already busting in wester zones this action .. I don’t know if this meets the qualification but looks a bit PRE like