Typhoon Tip

Seems to want to turn quick at a higher temperature than normal it’s now 39.5 and it’s cat paws and sleet mixed I knew this was gonna happen these top down events in the spring always snow at warmer temperatures

Cat paw raining here commenced at 8:15 Ayer. 40 F

Actually now 42. Wants to drop it seems. I can swear some rain particles already looking fat and some starring of them upon the wind shield but that's probably just me dorkin' out

Yo Mod power - can you del that other obs thread .. my bad! Didn't know this one was fired up when I started that - thx " This is a good case study on the topic of marginality and the excruciating difficulty there is in deterministic weather forecasting when at or < single degree C through critical vertical sounding structures will parlay vastly different sensible impacts. This might be a fun now-cast ride, because even with the ( recently debatable...) higher confidence Euro model only being 24 and 30 hours away, it's subtle movement variations across the last three cycles have meant < 1" to 15" impliations in Metrowest of Boston, and add or subtract as needed in how those runs might effect QPF and ptypes elsewhere. Agree with WIll that the locked confidence ( 70-80% being that lock numbers, if you will ..) probably Kevin to Hubb' up through EEN and the lower Greens over to the Whites, with perhaps a couple stripes near the river valleys out that way with temperature and local studies combining to shadow less. 11+ and now casting option for more... guessing 600 foot is where the stack efficiency gets better out that way. As for Willamantic CT to BED ... 20 miles either side... I'm not frankly sure how else to call that zone other than to average between Mt Watchpoopy and the Bourne Bridge ...and let the chips fall where they may. Maybe some sort of lockable consensus will materialize here in the next couple cycles, but I almost suspect this giga-motions right through the ordeal due it the whole structure sort of 'floating' at mid levels as opposed to being very well anchored to surface fronts/inflection points. Just wanna to take a moment to reflect that this mid April signal has been there for two weeks or more ... I personally let the subject go - because frankly...I hate and despise having it happen by this late in the spring. But, you now... lol - it's April. It's New England, and as they say in "Animal House," "Thank you, sir - may I please have another" j/k, but it's interesting that despite all journeys since this signal first popped in the American telecon, here we are after all. wow - Presently 44 in Ayer - dropping nicely... Down 8 in the last 6 hours... T-minus 4.5 deg before cat-paws commence

Not sure if you remember ( heh...yeah right; who am I talking to - ) but there was a Patriots game in October of 2010 where it snowed 2" of slush in the field and was waving by the stadium lights - I know because my buddy scored tickets to the game and texted me ever 10 minutes to inform me how it was the worse most horribly uncomfortable experience of his life up in the stands. Up here in Ayer the temp did exactly what you describe there - it was 37 when the drops got fat and started glowing as they streaked by, and then at 36 it was over to slush with big cotton balls occasional when it fell to 35. An inch in the grass and car tops... then it was 34.5 and for about a 1/2 hour we were ~ 3/4 mi vis or so... But then ... it got light and was back to light slush flakes along side tiny raindrops as the system wound down that evening at 37 ...with that smell of snow in the air mixed with wood smoke nostalgia. But I could see that here... sure...only this thing has much stronger fall rate potential so... that might punch the 34.5 to 32.7, with a longer duration...etc.

Ironically ...I'd be fine with nothing for that matter. Ha ha, don't even want snow personally ... not this late. 78 F with maple blossoms beginning to fill the air with scents that trigger homage and visions of dream girl ( or whatever floats one's WOKE-boat ... ), seems difficult to compete with if were up to me. ah hell. But to become a Met Jedi Master, over come one's fears must you

See... it's got continuity issues - three runs, three placements, boom boom boom, all having significantly enough sensible impact difference that it still, despite the short range, has uncertainty headaches. The problem also is that this is very delicate with unusually small wiggles having unusually large variances ...shorter distances, amounts and ptype. It's magnifying these run to run issues as being more than they might typically mean? I'm not sure in February, with an antecedent -8 C over Logan to HFD ... the difference between the 06z Euro and the 12z Euro means a whole helluva lot and probably gets ignored, so long as there's a 2" QPF liq equiv arc in the region... who cares - right. But placement ...and excruciatingly narrow thermodynamic pubes under the sheets still dictate how this thing blows its load and where.

mm... may be a now-cast at/beneath the 600 foot line ..

Ha ha... Lot of hedging going on in here today ... Can't say I blame anyone under the circumstances. No one wants ...or perhaps "dares" is more like it, to call a major snow storm in this, and probably...taking the peevishness and averaging it against the 06z Euro/12z NAM FOUS grid ... probably yields what Ryan sort of just laid out for CT ...ranging to 12 or 14 up there at 850" els by the border with NH ... Might be time to just call that and let the chips fall where they may - or in this case... parachutes.

Honestly ... ugh. This isn't just advantageous to our fun in this thing, but I frankly don't have confidence in the GFS in a situation like this, ...due to it's cornucopia of individual bias nuances. For one, it doesn't have the resolution in the boundary layer that the Euro/Meso camp and clusters do ... in a situation that is already amorphously ill defined and difficult for the latter technology suite to handle. And those thermodynamic feedbacks are probably going to have to be handled unusually precisely to know how they 'force' the BL resistance 'during' the storm as a delta(scenario) .... The GFS ... I don't know if the purely hydrostatic approach is the best tool for this gig -

I'd say at least that much in DJFM ... but in April, nodding to climate might wanna go closer to 100 haha No but this situation is unique in a sense that it snows dense and I think dense is closer to what you see is what you get... You can't negotiate on the < side of 10:1 as much as you can question them above that value.

You and your double negatives ... let me see if I can parse this out - Okay, I think I got it. If the Euro's 12z looks different than the 06 z, it may be expected ?- lol.. j/k Yeah I hear you though - I'm curious about that myself. You know, the FOUS outline I provided an hour ago, in concept and perhaps even discretely so, wonderfully matches the 06z Euro - I find that interesting. I wonder what the run-to-run constancy of the Euro will be and if it re-ups on that look.

Yeah, actually the American (GEFs) telecon spread has really in the last two .. three night's -worth flipped the script and signals a pretty demonstrative change may be the next chapter after this thing. It may only be transient ...? Say 7 to 10 days.... but at the other side, the hemisphere WILL DEFINITELY be in a mutilated solar scenario/seasonality so the signals really should break down in more earnest and observation by then and it probably won't matter so much. But anyway, by D5 the NAO is completely neutral with some members modestly positive ..some neg ..but the trend is going above 0 SD. Meanwhile, a highly concerted negative PNA has take place and ... I don't think the MJO is a huge contributor for a lot of long dissertation .. ugh... but, it did spend time through phases 3-6 ... fwiw that correlates to warming over eastern mid latitude/NA... short version? Telecon signaling a rapid warm up - how rapid and or BD this or ... comet impact that that can't be predicted, notwithstanding

This thing here in the foreground certainly is a lot of fun ... But, that fun extinguishes per every hour that surpasses beyond the end of the foreground event ... particularly should the hemisphere go into an ice age that eclipses the summer and all CC physics - in other words, metaphysically. Lol - No but the 00z Euro completes pattern change beyond ~ D6/7 ...ending in a decidedly different CONUS ...having all cold constricted/retreated back to the Can Shield, and is hoped to succeed - The GFS of course is still scrubbing seasonal change out of every run like it thinks its an error, finding a hemisphere more like November 10 by D 7 as base-line agenda by NCEP as usual... so it can't be trusted any more the other way. SO, flip coin... probably ends up between. But before that even happens... D4 and D5 on the Euro would almost be classic for a spring blue bomb - two days later,...knocks on the door of 65 in full sun. Bye bye spring blue - no worse for the wear. Dust off and move along. It's nice to not have a 10 day whirl cut off SE of Cape Cod ... could be that version. But dealing with farmer's gold spring snow, then soaring into the 60s is the way to get fun done without having to stench in the afterglow.

Yup ... he's right - that column ( was trying to use literary technique to back the reader into that notion ...) of data connotes historically in a triangulum roughtly NW RI, to maybe Waltham, Bedford and Worecster. I dunno, due small compact car types start tenting at 20" ... ? No exaggeration either. 2. to 2.5" QPF even if at 8:1 and compaction, is probably actually worse in terms of societal impact for everything from removal to grid and back. I have to say, ever since the day before the December 23rd event of 1997 ( not April 1 earlier that year), when the then, 'ETA' - same NAM model different header - FOUS had Logan with this profile below, I have been hesitant to second guess the isothermal or colder profile of the FOUS grids: 800 mb -3 C; 900 mb 0 C; 980 mb ( mid/upper floors of the Prudential) +2 C. Total QPF for 6 hours was ~ .54 if memory serves.... and the forecast was for 1-3" in the Worcester Hills ending as drizzle, with perhaps some slush in the city... That was the general gist. 21" at Tyngsborough and a general 14 to 18" just about everywhere - 'mean, the whole system out performed guidance et al by a goodly amount anyway...but then the cold profile not being taken seriously or just not seen in that grid was laughable. Objectively it is not the same ETA model ...it's been mangled by generational upgrades and so forth, and so the correction vectoring ( if you will ) may not be the same. And all the other guidance' have also had their evolutions .. and, it's f'n April 15 . We'll see

It's interesting because depending on the product release ..gives different complexion to this thing. I can look at the Kuchera this, a Trop. Tidbits that... a Pivotal this... and general course synoptic layout that, and all give a range of 2 to 20" off the 12z NAM solution I just saw. I think that hearkens to the delicate nature and that these varying products don't resolve at the same scalar dimensions - has to be .. otherwise we'd see an average and Ooh, ...maybe 8" is both climo friendly for seasonal anomaly, and more likely in a system that's not altogether historically powerful in any stretch of the imagination - just from orbit. I mean, the long fetch CCB stuff/arguments can offset and over-produce relative to the component analysis...sure... and it may - who knows. But I have a fetish for the old NAM FOUS raw grid data. I grew up Meteorologically coming of analytic age using that device and it too, is showing a 20" of snow for Framingham Blackedout-achusetts: 12000838131 00405 081015 45060400 12027967814 15702 042508 43100599 18021888038 02210 050818 43040200 18008834905 -2007 053415 34060095 24073989037 09410 040616 38010097 24000825603 -2407 053108 28040092 30085976106 07110 990227 36019897 30000606302 -0704 032609 30080093 36036974904 01208 990230 33039995 36007828807 -0807 063413 33050094 42018976202 -0407 030125 29029992 42000806108 00611 083313 35059994 48007956205 -2807 073619 30019795 granted these are Logan numbers...but, Met convention and duh reasoning connotes this is a wild white elephant ass of thumb out there in Metrowest... That is close to 2.37" QPF in sub- 540 dm thickness that are in the process of -(DH) ... The T1 temp ( about mid way up the Prudential Tower's monolith), drops from +4 C to +1 C ... while it is at or sub 0 C at the 900 and 800 mb levels. That tends to mean there is an arced band west of the city that is isothermal or less at these critical sounding sigma levels... while that tsunamis of QPF is falling. This product puts area grid services on high, high alert status... talking pagers and cots at site release points.

Yeah, I think that's because the cyclone is simply less anchored. You know this shit but ... the lower levels are exhibiting typical spring amorphous layout, with weak baroclinic gradients. ... for the general reader... when the fronts are better defined (better baroclinic gradient) lower in the atmosphere, that mechanically turns the upward air motion, or restoring air flows, into the z-coordinate sooner/ lower. That draws the surface low to a point more coherently that way, "anchored" at typically more physically defined lower frontal slopes. But when the fronts are weak/amorphously interfaced the UVM is more focused above at mid levels.. ..like a spinning over a fluid medium so it's really gyroing around run to run, and model to model, and may even exhibit subtly so in verification, too. Best just to take a kind of super blend of all ... I think a low near near the Bourne bridge/Buzzard's Bay ..exit transit on the shore side of Cape Cod Bay...possibly moving more SE as it really slips into history

Aye yai yai. What to do with the 06z Euro, huh. Firstly, is there any historical performance perspectives on these foreign models that specifically discusses off main interval model solutions? In the old days of the MRF turned GFS .. roughly 15 years ago give or take, the 06 and 18 Z runs were advised as being more than less equatable to a purturbed ensemble member, and to be leery of those run cycles because they did not contain the fuller suite of input grids for one, but because of that they also default did not have all the souped up advantages that the 00 and 12 Z solutions come with. However, I seem to recall reading or hearing someone ( hopefully a rep from an actual agency and not some articulate weinershnitzel that only sounds convincing - like me LOL ) kidding.. .but, the 06 and 18 Z GFS runs are now supposely more packed with legit initializations ( not data samples that were pulled off the previous model's first 6 hour positions ...etc..), but actual empirical values. I don't know what amount of all this is really true. But, I do vividly recall the Euro prompted Will once to put a thread together for a coastal two winters ago, because it came out on an 18z run, and just 72 hours out, too, morphing everything together just like we wanted to hear and see - like a con artist only found in literature... Then, we spent 6 hours ballooning said thread from 1 page to ... perhaps 10 pages deep of what ultimately turned out to be red herring when the next run abandoned and fell back to the emerging consensus for a nada event. No fault to Will - shit I would have probably done the same... I recall the telecon layout over in the American side really wanted more anyway, and that Euro run was inside it's 4.5 day wheelhouse. So...ever since then I've been leery of these off hour Euro runs. Fact of that matter is, though subtle in amount of shifting considering the total domain space ... it does still present a continuity change - just so happens it went from a ho-hum elevation paster to "fun" (?) grid concern - I have been advertising myself that the 'noise' should not be so readily ignored in these very highly, very delicate and sensitive determination deal(s) ... 30 miles and .4C worth of corrections is 1" of silver versus 10" of 3 days in the dark...etc... I will say this ... if that 06z Euro run takes the prize it will "synergistically" overwhelm the component determinants in that solution and uniform the column down to Metrowest driveway tops - ... In fact, there could be a secondary maximum that ultimately illustrates that point... say Wayland to Shrewbury to Acton ...somwhere in there getting almost as much as a hill tops out near Watchusett ... It's sort of metaphoric to the same argument of "snowing hard enough .. it doesn't matter what time of year" ? same idea, only... this storm goes too far over typology in seasonality/climo/and what-evers aspect, and just places that region inside a cyro cauldron -

Oh by the way .... haha ...

The other plausible result of the 'hook and ladder' is that doing so at this time of year will do so while rad and ground confirmation are attenuating rapidly.. The whole structure needs to get a strong thermodynamic feed-back from deepening cyclogen total physics space, such that the storm maximizes not so much prior to completing the west "backing in," but still doing so while - if it bonks early due to lax gradients in key physics ( you know this...) it backs in as an empty dump truck ..heh. You get my meaning.. I've seen countless -NAO pinned lows gets slung back west and they come light cold showers... I really like your previous idea better for elongating the low's overriding jet forcing, such that the QPF producing mechanics et al are more like slow moving steady fire-hosing - ... I mean what you described above, that type of storm 'hook and ladder' typically evolves from more of a nucleated morphology aloft ... storm gets snagged and it's like a planet getting too close to a black hole and it gets sucked in - ... But the total baroclinice space is more charged (winter), so the storm's getting feed back as gets drawn in and we have yellow bands arcing onto the coast from SE to NW... blah blah. This has to be more of the band moves into the area, then gradually turns E and hoses while the column cools.

Just getting caught up here this morning... ah yeeeeah, they all do though? They do, in simplest sense of it. Heights, more or less higher over the west over N/A... is counter-balanced with descent in that regard back east... = coastal storm. At a very orbital perspective we could say all events resemble one another. But as I said in the original suggestion - "in situ to the storm" ... I wasn't comparing the total synopsis. That literally means NOT included all the stuff you are comparing, but just the storm (centric) itself. Just to be clear.. There's value in comparing to 1997 for other reasons. As far the whole scope and scale, I don't see a huge comparison to the 1997 in the 00z NAM - this was always just discussing that model. That event had better defined R-wave pattern with a coherent +PNAP footprint from west coast to east coast. That means amped Rocky's ridge, giving total wave-space constructive interference, ...which then helps to really deepen and slow that event ... etc..etc. This is more of a nebular pattern - much more of a just being in the right time and place wrt a typical "bowling season" event. What I had in mind, storm-centric comparisons: Both did and could ( respectively ) result in slow movement, position ...capture and dynamic height fall behaviors, lending to well -established CCB being more so colder profiled and "perhaps" QPF prolific. Those specific/ discrete elements remind me of 1997. Overall and including other guidance: Much of that is observable in the others too...I mean they don't very 'that' much. The GFS looks very NAM-like...etc.. This may also be a weaker version of 1997

They may have been referring to the leading whole synopsis across the continent included - I mean the cyclone alone ...

Mm perhaps ... the best comparator in situ ( meaning not including the area outside the storm which I don’t know how that compares…) really does seem to presently be 1997 in that NAM

Good post imho We touched on that facet earlier - the eerily stalwart behavior.